ENSO Predictions in an Intermediate Coupled Model Influenced by Removing Initial Condition Errors in Sensitive Areas： A Target Observation Perspective

Previous studies indicate that ENSO predictions are particularly sensitive to the initial conditions in some key areas（socalled ＂sensitive areas＂）. And yet, few studies have quantified improvements in prediction skill in the context of an optimal observing system. In this study, the impact on prediction skill is explored using an intermediate coupled model in which errors in initial conditions formed to make ENSO predictions are removed in certain areas. Based on ideal observing system simulation experiments, the importance of various observational networks on improvement of El Ni n？o prediction skill is examined. The results indicate that the initial states in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific are important to improve El Ni n？o prediction skill effectively. When removing the initial condition errors in the central equatorial Pacific, ENSO prediction errors can be reduced by 25%. Furthermore, combinations of various subregions are considered to demonstrate the efficiency on ENSO prediction skill. Particularly, seasonally varying observational networks are suggested to improve the prediction skill more effectively. For example, in addition to observing in the central equatorial Pacific and its north throughout the year,increasing observations in the eastern equatorial Pacific during April to October is crucially important, which can improve the prediction accuracy by 62%. These results also demonstrate the effectiveness of the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation approach on detecting sensitive areas for target observations.

THE EFFECTIVENESS OF GENETIC ALGORITHM IN CAPTURING CONDITIONAL NONLINEAR OPTIMAL PERTURBATION WITH PARAMETERIZATION “ON-OFF” SWITCHES INCLUDED BY A MODEL

In the typhoon adaptive observation based on conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP), the ‘on-off’ switch caused by moist physical parameterization in prediction models prevents the conventional adjoint method from providing correct gradient during the optimization process. To address this problem, the capture of CNOP, when the "on-off" switches are included in models, is treated as non-smooth optimization in this study, and the genetic algorithm (GA) is introduced. After detailed algorithm procedures are formulated using an idealized model with parameterization "on-off" switches in the forcing term, the impacts of "on-off" switches on the capture of CNOP are analyzed, and three numerical experiments are conducted to check the effectiveness of GA in capturing CNOP and to analyze the impacts of different initial populations on the optimization result. The result shows that GA is competent for the capture of CNOP in the context of the idealized model with parameterization ‘on-off’ switches in this study. Finally, the advantages and disadvantages of GA in capturing CNOP are analyzed in detail.

Multi-sensor optimal weighted fusion incremental Kalman smoother

In practical applications, the system observation error is widespread. If the observation equation of the system has not been verified or corrected under certain environmental conditions,the unknown system errors and filtering errors will come into being.The incremental observation equation is derived, which can eliminate the unknown observation errors effectively. Furthermore, an incremental Kalman smoother is presented. Moreover, a weighted measurement fusion incremental Kalman smoother applying the globally optimal weighted measurement fusion algorithm is given.The simulation results show their effectiveness and feasibility.

High-Gain Approach Based Full-Order Observers for Linear Systems with Unknown Inputs

In this paper, a full-order observer which can be fully decoupled from the unknown inputs as the conventional full-order observer does is designed by using auxiliary outputs, but the requirement of the matching condition is removed. The procedure of calculating the parameter matrices of the full-order observer is also presented. Compared with the existing auxiliary outputs based sliding-mode observers, the designed observer has a simpler design procedure, which is systematic and does not involve solving linear matrix inequalities. The simulation results show that the proposed method is effective.

Identifying the sensitive area in adaptive observation for predicting the upstream Kuroshio transport variation in a 3-D ocean model

Using the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation(CNOP) approach, sensitive areas of adaptive observation for predicting the seasonal reduction of the upstream Kuroshio transport(UKT) were investigated in the Regional Ocean Modeling System(ROMS). The vertically integrated energy scheme was utilized to identify sensitive areas based on two factors: the specific energy scheme and sensitive area size. Totally 27 sensitive areas, characterized by three energy schemes and nine sensitive area sizes, were evaluated. The results show that the total energy(TE) scheme was the most effective because it includes both the kinetic and potential components of CNOP. Generally, larger sensitive areas led to better predictions. The size of 0.5% of the model domain was chosen after balancing the effectiveness and efficiency of adaptive observation. The optimal sensitive area OSen was determined accordingly. Sensitivity experiments on OSen were then conducted, and the following results were obtained:(1) In OSen, initial errors with CNOP or CNOP-like patterns were more likely to yield worse predictions, and the CNOP pattern was the most unstable.(2) Initial errors in OSen rather than in other regions tended to cause larger prediction errors. Therefore, adaptive observation in OSen can be more beneficial for predicting the seasonal reduction of UKT.

Output Feedback Stabilization of an Unstable Wave Equation with Observations Subject to Time Delay

This paper focuses on boundary stabilization of a one-dimensional wave equation with an unstable boundary condition,in which observations are subject to arbitrary fixed time delay.The observability inequality indicates that the open-loop system is observable,based on which the observer and predictor are designed:The state of system is estimated with available observation and then predicted without observation.After that equivalently the authors transform the original system to the well-posed and exponentially stable system by backstepping method.The equivalent system together with the design of observer and predictor give the estimated output feedback.It is shown that the closed-loop system is exponentially stable.Numerical simulations are presented to illustrate the effect of the stabilizing controller.