For long-term prediction of occurrence degree of tobacco aphid Myzus persicae （Sulzer）, Markov chain method was used to establish prediction model for occurrence degree of tobacco aphid. With 4 levels of occurrence ...For long-term prediction of occurrence degree of tobacco aphid Myzus persicae （Sulzer）, Markov chain method was used to establish prediction model for occurrence degree of tobacco aphid. With 4 levels of occurrence degree, Markov chain model was established based on the data in 1987-2004. The results indicated that the accuracy for total prediction in 2005-2007 and the back prediction in 1987-2004 reached 88.89% and 85.12%, respectively. The method is simple and feasible for long-term prediction of occurrence degree of tobacco aphid.展开更多
基金Supported by Tobacco Monopoly Bureau of Shandong Province (KN90)
文摘For long-term prediction of occurrence degree of tobacco aphid Myzus persicae （Sulzer）, Markov chain method was used to establish prediction model for occurrence degree of tobacco aphid. With 4 levels of occurrence degree, Markov chain model was established based on the data in 1987-2004. The results indicated that the accuracy for total prediction in 2005-2007 and the back prediction in 1987-2004 reached 88.89% and 85.12%, respectively. The method is simple and feasible for long-term prediction of occurrence degree of tobacco aphid.
