Divisia Decomposition Method and Its Application to Changes of Net Oil Import Intensity

The existing oil import dependence index cannot exactly measure the economic cost or scales, and it is difficult to describe the economical aspect of oil security. To measure the foreign dependence of one country's economy and reflect its oil economic security, this paper defines the net oil import intensity as the ratio of net oil import cost to GDP. By using Divisia Index Decomposition, the change of net oil import intensity in five industrialized countries and five newly industrialized countries during 1971—2010 is decomposed into five factors: oil price, oil intensity, oil self-sufficiency, domestic price level and exchange rate. The result shows that the dominating factors are oil price and oil intensity; moreover, the newly industrialized countries have higher net oil import intensity than industrialized countries.

China Crude Oil Imports and Oil Market-oriented Reform

Crude oil imports in China are mainly carried out by state-owned entities with non state-owned entities as compliment. Crude imported by 5 state-owned entities accounts for 90% of the total imports, while non state-owned entities are about given more freedom in using and importing crude. In 2015 only, there were 13 compauies graftted rcritlt access to imported crude oil and 6welv qualiied to import rights. Currently, there are 29 non-state-owned companies engaging in crude import business. China oil market is .faced with severe challenges. Ttre growth rate of oil demand declined, and dependence upon imported oil increased and reached as high as 61.26% in 2015. Refined oil demand growth also slowed down, and oil refining overcapacity got prominent and completion wouht become fiercer＂ in future. Overcapacity was about 140 million toils per year in 2015. Consumption ratio of diesel to gasoline went on declining, and ttre task of product structure adjustment was heavy. China oil market is undergoing great transformation, and institutional mechanism zoill go ahead, on the basis of centering on orderly release of limitations on crude oil and refined oil import and export, orderly release of competitive business arrd government pricing of oil/gas downstream links, vigorous resolving of overcapacity, strengthening low-carbon development, and laying a solid foundation.for guarantee.

Analysis of the Impact of the Decline in Crude Oil Imports on the Japanese Economy

In Japan, crude oil use depends almost exclusively on imports, mainly from the Middle East. Therefore, guaranteeing crude oil imports is an important issue for the Japanese energy policy. To analyze the impact of a decrease in crude oil imports, two features of crude oil as an energy good should be taken into consideration, namely being a factor of production in the energy sector and feedstock in petroleum and coal products. This study uses the GTAP and GTAP-E models to evaluate the impact of the decrease in crude oil imports in Japan, applying the same methodology and exogenous values, and analyzes the difference of the simulation results between the two models. In Japan, crude oil is used in two sectors： as feedstock in petroleum and coal products, and as a factor of production in the electricity sector. When energy goods are used as feedstock, the GTAP model, in which energy goods are treated as intermediate inputs with fixed coefficients, is suitable for analysis. The GTAP-E model, which incorporates an energy substitution structure into the GTAP model, is, on the other hand, suitable for analyzing energy goods when they are used as a factor of production. Furthermore, this study uses both a static analysis and an analysis incorporating capital accumulation effects to evaluate short-term, as well as medium to long-term impacts. The simulation results clearly indicate that, in the GTAP-E model, when crude oil imports from the Middle East decrease, Japan attempts to increase its crude oil imports from other regions, but by less than in the case of the GTAP model. The results of this study show that, for energy goods used mainly as feedstock, such as crude oil, analysis with fixed coefficients presents more realistic simulation results than those using the energy substitution structure.

China Top Oil Importer Status Overrated

Media reports of China surpassing the United States as the world’s biggest oil importer as shown by data from a U.S.government agency were somewhat overrated.Recently published data by the U.S.Energy Information Administration(EIA)showed that net imports of the United States and China stood at 6.24 million and 6.3million barrels per day in September of 2013,respectively.The EIA further forecast that China will start overtaking the United States by October 2013 on a monthly basis and by 2014 on an annual basis in terms of net oil imports.

Low Oil Prices Drive up China's Crude Oil Imports

China’s crude oil imports hit a record high in the first half of 2016 despite an economic slowdown,and analysts largely attributed the surge to low prices,not strategic maneuvering.The country imported 186.5 million tons of crude oil in the first half of the year,23.15 million

Analysis of China＇s Oil Imports and Exports in 2016

In 2016,China's net imports of crude oil increased to 378.3 million tons and its net exports of product oil soared to 20.45 million tons.Refinery crude runs continue to grow at a low rate,and the domestic product oil market still has a supply surplus.Diesel consumption fell for the first time in 21 years.The liquefied petroleum gas(LPG) market continues to grow rapidly,spurred on by feedstock demand for chemicals and gasoline blending components,and imports of LPG have reached a record high of 16.12 million tons.The refinery throughput of Petro China and SINOPEC had declined for 2 consecutive years,but crude oil imports climbed to a new high of 381 million tons as independent refineries boosted their utilization of capacity and the domestic oilfields produced a decreased amount of output.Imported oil now accounts for more than 2/3 of the Chinese market compared to being only about 1/3 15 years ago.Moreover,the proportion of imported crude in refinery runs has risen to 70%.In 2017,China's economy will continue to face substantial pressure,and domestic demand for product oil will continue to grow slowly.

Analysis on the spatial pattern and evolution of China's petroleum trade under the dual effect of international oil price and “Belt and Road” Framework

“Belt and Road” is the important origin of oil import in China. Based on social network analysis and stochastic frontier gravity model, this paper studied the characteristic evolution and influence factor of oil import network between China and “Belt and Road” countries. Then by constructing a stochastic frontier gravity model including the crude oil future price and oil importing price, it found that the international crude oil future price, the oil importing price, the political situation, the trade agreements have the effects on the China's oil import from “Belt and Road” region. It provided suggestions for improving the spatial pattern of China's petroleum trade.

The potential of domestic production and imports of oil and gas in China:an energy return on investment perspective

Concerns about China’s energy security have escalated because of the country’s high dependency on oil and gas imports, so it is necessary to calculate the availability of domestic oil and gas resources and China’s ability to obtain foreign energy through trade. In this work,the calculation was done by using the energy return on investment（EROI） method. The results showed that the EROIstnd（i.e., standard EROI） of China’s oil and gas extraction decreased from approximately 17.3：1 in 1986 to 8.4：1 in 2003, but it increased to 12.2：1 in 2013. From a company-level perspective, the EROIstnddiffered for different companies and was in the range of（8–12）：1. The EROI2,d（EROI considering energy outputs after processed and direct energy inputs） for different companies was in the range of（3–7）：1. The EROI of imported oil（EROIIO）declined from 14.8：1 in 1998 to approximately 4.8：1 in 2014, and the EROI of imported natural gas（EROIING）declined from 16.7：1 in 2009 to 8.6：1 in 2014. In 2015, the EROIIO and EROIING showed a slight increase due to decreasing import prices. In general, this paper suggests that from a net energy perspective, it has become more difficult for China to obtain oil and gas from both domestic production and imports. China is experiencing an EROI decline, which demonstrates the risk in the use of unsustainable fossil resources.

中国式现代化背景下能源转型风险识别与应对

能源转型是实现可持续发展和环境友好的重要任务、维护国家能源安全并促进社会公平的关键举措,研究其潜在风险与应对策略具有现实意义和宏观价值。本文剖析了中国式现代化五大内涵对能源转型的本质要求,识别出以本质要求为出发点的能源转型风险,提出了相应风险的应对策略与保障机制。研究发现,中国式现代化对能源转型提出了“能源安全、环境友好、社会公平”三方面本质要求;我国能源转型在能源安全方面面临着煤炭行业安全、油气供给安全、新型电力系统运行安全风险,在环境友好方面面临着低碳技术制约发展、新能源所需关键金属矿产供给安全风险,在社会公平方面面临着社会公平失调风险,还面临着一定的金融风险。最后从能源安全风险应对、环境友好风险应对、社会公平失调风险应对、金融风险应对4个方面提出了应对策略,进而从短期优先实施、长期持续推行两个层面建立各类应对策略的保障机制。

哈萨克斯坦进口3种食用植物油的营养组分特征研究

哈萨克斯坦是“一带一路”经济带上的油脂油料生产大国,与中国贸易基础深厚,具有成为我国油脂油料进口重要伙伴的巨大潜力。研究系统分析了哈萨克斯坦进口菜籽油、葵花籽油及亚麻籽油的营养组分组成及含量特征。结果表明,3种哈萨克斯坦进口的食用油脂中的必需脂肪酸的含量水平,均符合我国规定的同类油品中的必需脂肪酸的含量要求,其中,葵花籽油和亚麻籽油的亚油酸质量分数分别为66.272%和18.332%,与我国规定的48.3%~74.0%和10.0%~20.0%相比,处于较高水平。与国际食品法典委员会规定值相比,其营养物质生育酚,尤其是γ-生育酚和δ-生育酚的含量十分丰富,其中,菜籽油中γ-生育酚和δ-生育酚的含量为825.5、25.3 mg/kg,分别比国际食品法典委员会规定的最大值高出9.6%和15.0%;葵花籽油中γ-生育酚和δ-生育酚的含量为94.1、21.5 mg/kg,分别比国际食品法典委员会规定的最大值高出176.8%和207.1%;亚麻籽油中γ-生育酚和δ-生育酚的含量为802.6、22.5 mg/kg,分别比国际食品法典委员会规定的最大值高出12.7%和60.7%。

2023年中国油气进出口状况分析

2023年,中国原油进口量为5.64亿吨,与上年相比增速为11%。成品油进口量创历史新高,达到4755万吨,比上年增长80.4%。其中,燃料油进口量大幅增至2783万吨,比上年增加113.4%;航空煤油出口量为1586万吨,首次超过柴油和汽油成为第一大出口品种;石脑油净进口量为1235万吨,达到空前水平。2023年,中国天然气净进口量为1589.45亿立方米,比上年增长9.67%。包括丙烷、丁烷和混合气在内的LPG进口量增至3219万吨,比上年增长21%。预计未来中国原油进口量会保持小幅上升的态势;炼油能力过剩需要高度关注,进一步增加成品油出口仍是重要方向;LPG进口数量和能力将延续增长态势,中国需提升国际贸易参与度及自身话语权;天然气消费仍存在巨大增长空间,碳达峰、碳中和目标将拉动中国天然气进口量持续攀升。

中国基础油市场发展现状分析及展望

基础油约占润滑油原材料的70%~99%,对润滑油的质量、性能和生产成本起到重要的作用。2019年以来,随着国内多套新建和改扩建基础油装置陆续投产,中国基础油产能大幅增加。在经济增速、终端需求、环保政策以及燃油经济性和长换油期等因素综合影响下,中国基础油需求量增速放缓,产业升级也在持续进行。中国基础油市场逐步呈现结构性过剩的局面。未来,随着国内产品指标的提升和产能结构的优化,中国基础油进口依存度有望进一步降低。

俄罗斯进口原油运输问题分析

近年来,俄罗斯原油因其突出的性价比,在我国进口原油中的占比持续提升。但俄罗斯原油进口运输中存在管道输送能力受瓶颈限制、油轮运力组织落实难、铁路运力紧张等问题。基于此,研究推动中俄原油管道中线过境蒙古国方案,打通俄罗斯进口原油运输保险和再保险服务堵点,重启恢复原有中俄铁路原油运输专线,加强俄罗斯原油性价比测算,加大我国在具有破冰能力的超级液化天然气(LNG)运输船和油轮领域的技术突破,并加大储备力度应对美元超发风险,助力解决俄罗斯进口原油运输瓶颈,维护我国能源安全。

以“大资源”战略推动能源安全保障能力提升的思考

从石油是制约我国能源安全的主要瓶颈问题出发,以全球一体化贸易优化为着力点,围绕利用国际石油市场的跨区域、跨市场、跨周期调节,分析“大资源”战略的内涵与作用。为推进好“大资源”战略,切实提升国际贸易对维护我国能源安全的作用,需要把高质量国际合作、深入推进共建“一带一路”以及国内石油期货市场发展和提升石油市场话语权结合起来。

基于随机森林算法的二氧化碳驱油与封存主控因素研究

在碳达峰、碳中和目标背景下,二氧化碳驱油与封存是经济可行的碳减排的主要技术手段。明确影响二氧化碳驱油与封存效果的主控因素,是实现二氧化碳高效驱油与封存的基础。在行业标准算例PUNQ-S3模型的基础上,综合考虑二氧化碳与原油混相作用和二氧化碳构造、残余、溶解、矿化封存机理,构建了二氧化碳提高原油采收率与地质封存一体化数值模拟模型,结合随机森林智能算法,开展了影响二氧化碳驱产油量和封存量的储层和生产参数特征重要性分析,考虑驱油与封存时间尺度的差异,建立了参数时序特征重要性分析方法,实现了在不同二氧化碳驱油与封存阶段的主控因素分析。结果表明,二氧化碳驱油与封存时序随机森林模型准确性高,在二氧化碳驱油与封存前期,二氧化碳构造封存量受储层含水饱和度控制,溶解封存量受地层水矿化度控制;在二氧化碳驱油与封存中、后期,二氧化碳构造封存量则受储层渗透率控制,溶解封存量则受储层渗透率与地层水矿化度控制;残余封存量在二氧化碳驱油与封存前期较小,导致其主控因素不明显,在二氧化碳驱油与封存中后期受储层渗透率与含水饱和度控制;二氧化碳矿化封存量在整个二氧化碳驱油与封存阶段受地层水pH值与矿化度控制;二氧化碳驱油量在整个二氧化碳驱油与封存阶段受储层渗透率及含水饱和度控制。时序随机森林算法可以明确不同二氧化碳驱油与封存阶段的主控因素,为二氧化碳提高原油采收率和地质封存的高效实施提供了技术支撑。

中国参与格陵兰国际能源合作的前景探析

在全球气候变暖的背景下,格陵兰岛因其丰富的能源资源,成为外界关注的能源“热土”,也为中国参与格陵兰国际能源合作提供了机遇。格陵兰的石油、铀矿等不可再生能源储量丰富,水能、风能等可再生能源开发潜力巨大,太阳能、地热能也具有一定的应用场景,但开发程度普遍较低。格陵兰能源消费的多元化程度低,清洁能源发展水平有限,石油占据了主要部分,且石油产品全部依赖进口。格陵兰自身的能力十分有限,导致丰富的能源资源不能得到有效利用。格陵兰地方政府与丹麦中央政府的双层博弈,也影响了格陵兰的对外能源合作。美国在北大西洋地区的地缘政治影响力,对包括中国在内的不同开发主体参与格陵兰国际能源合作亦增添了障碍。中国已经在人文交流、基础设施建设、矿产开发等领域与格陵兰进行了一定的合作尝试。未来需要在气候变化乃至全球治理的视野下,关注地缘政治不同方面的利益诉求,树立全球治理理念,重点从清洁能源角度切入格陵兰能源领域的国际合作。

进口企业视角下海关税款担保业务探析——以原油担保通关为例

海关税款担保作为促进贸易便利化的金融服务工具之一,在进口货物征税中的重要性日益凸显。文章从原油进口企业视角出发,深入分析原油担保通关机制,通过案例分析进口企业运用海关税款担保降低财务成本的实现路径,探讨海关税款担保为海关和企业分别带来的挑战,并对优化海关税款担保运行机制提出建议,为我国加快建设贸易强国,促进对外贸易高质量发展提供有益参考。

掺炼进口原油工艺技术分析及加工方案优化

针对延长石油榆林炼油厂现有榆林原油、进口原油与混合原油的性质特征,总结掺炼进口原油过程中常压装置、催化装置出现的运行问题,提出适应性解决措施,形成大常压+小减压的进口原油加工方案。结果表明,进口原油减压一次加工蜡油,经催化裂化或加氢处理后,生产的重油满足煤油共炼装置的原料要求,装置具备加工高硫、含酸原油的能力,实现进口原油与延长石油自产原油的高效耦合加工,进一步提高进口原油掺炼量,有效提升炼厂的经济效益。