China Crude Oil Imports and Oil Market-oriented Reform

Crude oil imports in China are mainly carried out by state-owned entities with non state-owned entities as compliment. Crude imported by 5 state-owned entities accounts for 90% of the total imports, while non state-owned entities are about given more freedom in using and importing crude. In 2015 only, there were 13 compauies graftted rcritlt access to imported crude oil and 6welv qualiied to import rights. Currently, there are 29 non-state-owned companies engaging in crude import business. China oil market is .faced with severe challenges. Ttre growth rate of oil demand declined, and dependence upon imported oil increased and reached as high as 61.26% in 2015. Refined oil demand growth also slowed down, and oil refining overcapacity got prominent and completion wouht become fiercer＂ in future. Overcapacity was about 140 million toils per year in 2015. Consumption ratio of diesel to gasoline went on declining, and ttre task of product structure adjustment was heavy. China oil market is undergoing great transformation, and institutional mechanism zoill go ahead, on the basis of centering on orderly release of limitations on crude oil and refined oil import and export, orderly release of competitive business arrd government pricing of oil/gas downstream links, vigorous resolving of overcapacity, strengthening low-carbon development, and laying a solid foundation.for guarantee.

Analysis of OPEC’s Monopoly in Crude Oil Market

This article briefly and historically reviews the polices of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries （OPEC） and analyzes the factors that facilitate or hinder OPEC＇s monopoly in the crude oil market. The industrial concentration ratio is chosen to measure OPEC＇s monopoly power based on the data from 1986 to 2004. It is concluded that OPEC possesses a long-standing cartel foundation and a rather strong monopoly in the world crude oil market. At the same time, there are unstable factors that influence and even weaken OPEC＇s monopoly.

China's Oil Market to be Deregulated Slowly

Nowadaysitismoreandmoredifficulttofindarapidmoney-makingmarket,butChina's1.2-billion-peoplemarketisnodoubtanattractivecaketoforeigninvestorstointroducecapitalandtechnology.Manymajorinternationaloilfirmshavemadeanattemptforthecountry'soilmarket.Inther...

Cross-correlation analysis of crude oil and new energy markets: A new perspective based on carbon emission market

Taking the return series of the EU carbon allowance price, WTI crude oil price, the European renewable energy index and Shenzhen carbon emission price, Daqing crude oil price, the China securities new energy index as sample data, the multifractal detrend cross-correlation analysis method(MF-DCCA)is used to research the dynamic cross-correlation relationships among the carbon emission market, crude oil market and the new energy market in Europe and China and the source of the multifractality. The empirical analysis shows that the cross-correlations among the carbon emission market, crude oil market and new energy market in Europe and China have all significant multifractal characteristics. Moreover, the multifractal strength of cross-correlation between the carbon emission market and crude oil market is less than that between the carbon emission market and new energy market in Europe. The Chinese market is the opposite. In addition, the multifractal strength of cross-correlation between the crude oil market and new energy market in Europe is more than that between the crude oil market and new energy market in China. It is also found that the long-range correlation of the sequences themselves and the fat-tailed distribution in fluctuations are the common causes of the multifractality, and the fat-tailed in fluctuations distribution contributes more to the multifractals of the series.

Chinese “Red” Oil Paintings Sold Well in Auction Market

Chinese"red"art,which refer to artworks depicting revolutionary subjects,have seen excellent performance in the auction market since the beginning of this year.In particular,the celebration of the60th anniversary of the People’s Republic of China gave a new push to its price rise.

Markov-Switching Time-Varying Copula Modeling of Dependence Structure between Oil and GCC Stock Markets

This paper proposes a Markov-switching copula model to examine the presence of regime change in the time-varying dependence structure between oil price changes and stock market returns in six GCC countries. The marginal distributions are assumed to follow a long-memory model while the copula parameters are supposed to evolve according to the Markov-switching process. Furthermore, we estimate the Value-at-Risk (VaR) based on the proposed approach. The empirical results provide evidence of three regime changes, representing precrisis, financial crisis and post-crisis, in the dependence structure between energy and GCC stock markets. In particular, in the pre- and post-crisis regimes, there is no dependence, while in the crisis regime, there is significant tail dependence. For OPEC countries, we find lower tail dependence whereas in non-OPEC countries, we see upper tail dependence. VaR experiments show that the Markov-switching time- varying copula model performs better than the time-varying copula model.

Investigations into Optimization Models of Crude Oil Distillation Column in the Context of Feed Stock and Market Value

This paper proposes optimization models of crude oil distillation column for both limited and unlimited feed stock and market value of known products prices. The feed to the crude distillation column was assumed to be crude oil containing naphtha gas, kerosene, petrol and diesel as the light-light key, light key, heavy key and heavy-heavy key respectively. The models determined maximum concentrations of heavy key in the distillate and light key in the bottom for limited feed stock and market condition. Both were impurities in their respective positions of the column. The limiting constraints were sales specification concentration of light key in the distillate [ ], heavy key in the bottom [ ] and an operating loading constraint of flooding above the feed tray. For unlimited feed stock and market condition, the optimization models determined the optimum separation [ and ] and feed flow rate that would give maximum profit with minimum purity sales specification constraints of light key in the distillate and heavy key in the bottom as stated above. The feed loading was limited by the reboiler capacity. However, there is need to simulate the optimization models for an existing crude oil distillation column of a refinery in order to validate the models.

An economic analysis of China’s domestic crude oil supply policies

China's domestic oil production has lagged the growth in domestic oil consumption since the beginning of the 21st century,leading to a growing reliance on imports.In response,the Chinese government has introduced a number of policies,including import license constraints,to support domestic suppliers.In an effort to measure the economic impact of these policies we develop a short-run equilibrium model of China's wholesale oil and gas market at the provincial scale.We construct counterfactual scenarios that suggest that relaxing policies that prioritize domestic production in 2016,when the average price of Chinese oil imports was US$42 per barrel(bbl),could have increased China's import demand by 0.29 million barrels per day(MMbbl/d).This results in a substitution of 9%of China’s domestic production in 2016,and a reduction of US$2.8 billion in crude supply costs including transportation as the imported oil has more direct access to the country’s pipeline network,compared to the displaced domestic production.In addition,rising import prices since mid-2017 may provide a window of opportunity for Chinese policymakers to proceed with further deregulation of the domestic oil sector,as the short-term impact on domestic producers is reduced.

Review of China's Oil and Gas Policies in 2018

In 2018, the Opinions on Deepening the Reform of the Oil and Gas System was implemented, and supporting measures were introduced one after another to promote the further expansion of the oil and gas market. The promotion of the competitive transfer of mining rights has continued, and Xinjiang has for the first time sold the exploration rights of five oil and gas exploration blocks through listing. The supervision of the fair opening of oil and gas pipeline networks has been strengthened, and oil and gas infrastructure will be opened to third parties. Market access for oil sales has been further relaxed, and restrictions on more than 30 foreign-funded chain gas stations requiring Chinese ownership have been lifted.The management system of oil and gas import and export has been improved, and non-state-owned trading enterprises in the free trade zone have for the first time been granted the right to import crude oil. The pricing mechanism of natural gas has been further improved; the price management of residential gas has been changed from the highest gate station price management to reference gate station price management so as to realize the connection between residential gas and nonresidential gas reference price levels. The promotion of the successful listing of Shanghai crude oil futures will promote the formation of Asian pricing power for crude oil and enhance China's influence on pricing in the international oil market. In addition, the state has issued the Opinions on Promoting the Coordinated and Stable Development of Natural Gas, which is conducive to solving the problems of the incomplete natural gas production, supply, storage and marketing system, and unbalanced industrial development in China. Focusing on enhancing domestic oil and gas exploration and development,such fiscal and taxation support policies as shale gas tax cuts and the proposed extension of subsidy years have been introduced so as to slow down the excessive rise in oil and gas dependence on foreign countries, and enhance the ability to ensure national energy security.

To jump or not to jump:momentum of jumps in crude oil price volatility prediction

A well-documented finding is that explicitly using jumps cannot efficiently enhance the predictability of crude oil price volatility.To address this issue,we find a phenomenon,“momentum of jumps”(MoJ),that the predictive ability of the jump component is persistent when forecasting the oil futures market volatility.Specifically,we propose a strategy that allows the predictive model to switch between a benchmark model without jumps and an alternative model with a jump component according to their recent past forecasting performance.The volatility data are based on the intraday prices of West Texas Intermediate.Our results indicate that this simple strategy significantly outperforms the individual models and a series of competing strategies such as forecast combinations and shrinkage methods.A mean–variance investor who targets a constant Sharpe ratio can realize the highest economic gains using the MoJ-based volatility forecasts.Our findings survive a wide variety of robustness tests,including different jump measures,alternative volatility measures,various financial markets,and extensive model specifications.

新能源汽车对成品油替代的区域性研究

2023年,中国新能源汽车已进入全面市场拓展期。目前,中国新能源汽车正处于“两高一强”的发展阶段,对成品油的替代呈现“一家独大”的现状。将全国分为东北、西北、西南、华东、华南、华北六个区域,构建“长期看保有,中期看销量,短期看运营车”的分析框架,从短期、中期、长期三个维度对不同区域、不同省份的新能源汽车的成品油替代作用展开细化分析研究。建议成品油销售企业根据各区域新能源汽车发展特色制定油品销售规划,分区域推进综合能源服务站的布局与建设,同时助力公共领域新能源汽车的应用推广工作,以应对新能源汽车对成品油的替代,加快世界一流综合性国际能源公司的建设。