Prediction Ability of Cash Flows, Net Income （NI）, and Auditors

The accounting information should help investors and creditors evaluate the amounts, timing, and uncertainty of firms＇ future cash receipts and disbursements. The Financial Accounting Standards Board （FASB） contends that accrual-based historical earnings are superior to cash flows in predicting future cash flows. But, Bowen, Burgstahler, and Daley （1986） showed that traditional measures of cash flows （net income （NI） plus depreciation and working capital from operations） appear to be better predictors of future cash flows than accrual accounting earnings. Since then, many researchers have articulated the importance of accounting data, especially cash flows and NI, in the predictive and forecasting processes. In this study, we empirically re-examined the ability of cash flows from operating activities （CFO） and accrual-based NI in predicting firms＇ bankruptcy. In the past, the results of this type of research were mixed. Differently from previous research, we focus on the timing of predictive ability, i.e., which indicator, cash flows or NI, is faster in predicting a firm＇s bankruptcy. We also investigate the timing of auditors＇ issuance of a going-concern opinion. The preliminary results show that the accrual-based NI is more accurate and faster than either CFO or audit opinion in predicting firms＇ failures. On average, NI signals a firm＇s bankruptcy 2.41 years before the bankruptcy filing, while CFO signals 1.48 years before filing. Auditors issued a going-concern opinion, another signal for firms＇ failure, to only 16 out of 41 bankrupt firms one year before bankruptcy, and no auditor issued the going-concern opinion two years before bankruptcy.

The Effect of Net Working Capital on Jordanian Industrial and Energy Sectors＇ Net Cash Flows Employed in Operating Activities

The primary objective of the cash flow statement is to provide useful, meaningful, and relevant information about the cash receipts and cash payments of a firm during a given period of time. Decision makers can achieve extra features of the change in net assets, the firms＇ financial position （liquidity and solvency）, and the firm＇s ability to adapt to changing circumstances by affecting the amount and timing of cash flows. Cash flow statements improve comparability as they are not affected by differing accounting policies used for the same type of transactions or events. This study aims to verify the effect of net working capital （NWC）, as an indicator of a company＇s short-term liquidity or its ability to meet short-term obligations, on Jordanian industrial and energy sectors＇ net operating cash flows （NOCF）. A simple liner regression is used to test a period of 2008-2011 in order to conclude the extent of the effect on industrial and energy sectors. The study showed that there is a significant effect of the independent variable NWC on the dependent variable NOCF among industrial and energy sectors in Jordanian market. Whereas the adjusted R-squared of test is 0.854, changes in NOCF in Jordanian industrial and energy sectors have been described by NWC. Also, the study reached that the utilities and energy sector has the lowest NWC, while the mining and extraction sector has the highest. And, electrical industries sector has the lowest NOCF, while the mining and extraction sector has the highest. Moreover, the study showed that the printing and packaging sector has the lowest NWC, while the mining and extraction sector has the highest. And, glass and ceramic industries sector has the lowest NOCF, while the utilities and energy sector has the highest.

The Impact of Carbon Emissions on Asset Values and Operating Cash Flows： Evidence From Australian Listed Companies

In November 2011, the Australian government approved the legislation （Clean Energy Act 2011） to introduce a reduction plan of carbon emissions in Australia. This plan will be implemented from July 2012. This is one of the first accounting studies to investigate the potential impacts of this plan on long-lived asset values and operating cash flows for Australian listed companies. A sample of Australian Securities Exchange （ASX） 200 indexed companies from 2＇006 to 2010 is used. Hypotheses are tested based on Heckman＇s （1979） two-stage approach. Three regression models are developed to examine the association between carbon emissions and asset values/operating cash flows. This study finds that asset values and operating cash flows will be adversely affected, if the reduction plan is implemented. Specifically, this study finds that the book value of long-lived assets will decrease, if listed companies are considered to be emissions-liable. The book value of long-lived assets is further found to be negatively associated with listed companies＇ carbon emission levels. This study also demonstrates that operating cash flows of emissions-liable companies will be adversely affected. However, this study does not find a relationship between operating cash flows and companies＇ emission levels. The empirical findings from Australian listed companies provide the evidence that the reduction plan of carbon emissions will adversely affect corporate entities＇ asset values and operating cash flows. The results further indicate that the magnitude of the impact will be proportional to the companies＇ emission levels. The implications of these empirical findings for listed companies, for the accounting profession, and for carbon emission regulators are also discussed.

Cash Flow from Operations, Accruals and Earnings Persistency

Persistency of earnings is an important measure of eamings quality. It is generally accepted that the more the persistency is, the higher the quality of earnings is. We analyze the characteristic factors influencing earnings persistency, use data of A-share listed companies during 1998-2004, and find that earnings persistency is significantly related to the nature of earnings, the cash content of earnings and the quality of accruals.

基于任务优先权的军民航飞行活动协同排序模型

随着空域资源需求的不断增大,军民航间飞行矛盾日益突显。为解决此问题,本文以国务院、中央军事委员会空中交通管制委员会提出的“军民航空管联合运行”为背景,引入军民航共享空域的概念,重点研究了在此类空域中军民航飞行活动协同排序(CMFCS,civil-military aviation flight activity collaborative sequencing)问题。首先,基于军民航各自飞行任务特点与差异,对军民航飞行任务的种类进行划分,并使用层次分析法确定各类飞行任务的优先权原则;其次,以军民航飞行活动总延误时间成本最小为目标,建立CMFCS模型;最后,使用遗传算法对模型进行求解,确定军民航飞行活动批准进入共享空域的时间序列。研究结果表明,与经典的先到先服务(FCFS,first come first service)策略相比,协同排序策略得到的总延误时间成本降低了72.17%,优化效果显著且更符合实际,能够实现军民航共同使用国家空域资源,保障飞行活动安全、有序、高效地运行。

考虑现金流和碳清缴周期的发电商电碳现货市场决策优化

为有效利用碳配额按年核算清缴带来的灵活性并形成满足现金流约束的电碳现货市场决策,在全年视角下研究了发电商电碳现货市场每日决策问题。首先,考虑各种经营活动的结算周期,建立带有现金流约束的电碳市场全年视角随机决策模型;然后,采用混合时间步长建模,在能够描述现金结算周期的前提下减少决策变量,并将多阶段随机优化模型简化为两阶段随机优化模型以便于求解;最后,通过增加碳市场单向交易规则解决传统两阶段模型在第2阶段频繁投机交易的问题,增加碳市场择时交易规则以解决两阶段模型对未来购碳成本预期偏低的问题。算例分析表明,所提决策方案能够有效降低发电商购碳成本并提高全年整体收益,同时保障了现金流安全。

优质水源条件下臭氧生物活性炭工艺运行模式探讨

针对水厂引入优质水源后如何管理好臭氧生物活性炭工艺(O_(3)-BAC),降低生产能耗的问题,以确保水质安全、设备设施可靠的前提下,在J和N水厂分别开展停用和小流量运行O_(3)-BAC的生产性试验,重点分析了停用O_(3)-BAC对水处理效果、炭滤池和重点设备的影响,并对小流量运行O_(3)-BAC的运行模式进行了初探讨。结果表明,在原水为优质水源的条件下,若停用O_(3)-BAC,常规工艺处理高pH原水时,出厂铝会升高;炭池停用45 d内,滤料上微生物活性急剧下降,重启运行后65 d后仅恢复至停用前的64%;炭池停用再启动后,出水氨(以N计)含量呈现先增长后下降,且增长量随停用时间延长而增大,最高可升至0.7 mg/L,24小时后达到稳定;停用时间小于6个月,提升泵等重点设备性能无明显变化。若采用小流量运行O_(3)-BAC(超越水量约60%),N水厂电耗和氧耗分别下降8.80%和28.72%。

气电联动机制下油气企业投资燃气电厂项目策略研究

近年来国际局势动荡,天然气价格高企,导致燃气发电成本上升。对此,中国主要省份出台气电价格联动机制,力求平抑天然气发电企业风险。江苏省采取天然气发电上网的两部制电价政策,气电价格存在联动机制。浙江省天然气发电存量机组继续执行两部制电价,电量电价按气电价格联动方式制定。油气公司依托丰富的上游资源,在燃气电厂领域具有天然资源优势,纷纷参与燃气电厂投资建设;与此同时,燃气发电板块作为终端用气设施,将天然气产业链进一步正向延伸,为产业链气量销纳、整体效益、协调发展等做出重要贡献。基于此,本文深入研究了各省份“气电联动”机制,并结合现金流量法分析了“气电联动”机制对燃气电厂项目收益影响,针对研究成果提出油气企业投资、运营燃气电厂的建议,从“气电联动”角度为投资主体项目决策、项目布局、资源配比提供思路与参考。

应收账款管理现状及存在问题对策研究

在现代企业管理中,加强应收账款管理,对加快货款回收和防范财务风险具有重要意义.文章首先从销售内控的风险管理、客户管理及回款三个角度,对应收账款管理出现的问题进行了分析.再以销售流程为主线,从事前预防、事中监督及事后跟踪的三个方面,提出了规范化管理建议.

现金流优化的网络进度计划问题研究综述

网络进度计划优化问题的研究主要以最短工期为优化目标,因而进度计划在财务方面对项目的影响被大大忽略略了.A.Russell提出以净现值作为优化目标,首先研究了现金流优化的网络进度计划问题.本文对该领域的研究文献进行了调研,分别概述了支付进度计划问题、资源约束问题以及时间-费用交换问题的研究情况和成果.

盈余重述与真实活动操控——以高报盈余的重述公司为例

近年来日趋频繁的盈余重述受到了投资者、学术界及监管当局的广泛关注,探究盈余重述发生的深层次动因成为提高会计信息披露质量必须要解决的问题。以高报盈余的重述公司为对象,通过分析盈余重述与真实活动盈余管理的关系后发现,与非重述公司相比,高报盈余的重述公司在财务报告发生错误的年度经营现金流较低,生产成本较高。这说明重述公司利用真实经济活动正向调整了盈余,盈余重述的主要原因是公司以前年度的盈余管理行为。

再融资公司现金流操控行为研究——来自中国A股市场的数据

以2001—2006年在A股市场再融资的233家上市公司为样本，分年度分析了再融资前后一年样本公司三项现金流指标的变化，并运用两配对样本Wilcoxon符号秩检验方法和两配对样本t检验方法，比较了再融资公司和控制样本公司三项现金流指标和经营现金流11个重要构成项目的变化。结果表明，再融资公司很可能通过加快收回货款、获得一次性税费返还、调整非经常性项目、拖延支付税费、提前大量销售存货等方式，操控上市公司的现金流，以满足再融资条件。

控制权、现金流权分离与企业经营风险关系研究

本文从理论上研究了控制权与现金流权分离、控制股东目标函数和企业经营风险之间的内在关系,研究发现在两权分离的情况下,逐利本性会使控制股东谋求控制权私有收益的动机更为强烈,由此带来成本的增加和利润的减少,使得企业经营风险增大。本文采用2007~2011年间中国上市公司面板数据进行了实证检验,证实了现金流权与经营风险负相关,控制权和两权分离度与经营风险正相关。

我国上市公司CFO薪酬与盈余质量的相关性研究

本文研究了我国上市公司CFO薪酬与盈余质量的相关性。研究发现,随着我国上市公司治理机制的不断完善,上市公司逐步建立起了以盈余为业绩指标的CFO薪酬激励机制。通过文章逐层递进的研究,我们发现我国上市公司CFO薪酬激励契约显著地区别反映了盈余中的非经常性损益和经常性损益,但是却未能有效地区别反映经常性损益中的应计项目和经营性现金流,存在类似"功能锁定"的现象。进一步细分研究样本后,我们发现由于盈余管理上市公司CFO薪酬激励契约对非经常性损益和经常性损益的不合理权重赋值,扭亏上市公司的CFO薪酬激励契约反而刺激了CFO进行盈余管理。根据研究我们认为,解决CFO薪酬激励契约对应计项目和经营性现金流的"功能锁定"现象,改进盈余管理上市公司CFO薪酬激励契约成为目前我国上市公司完善CFO薪酬激励机制的两个重要任务。

现金流量管理与实际活动操控关系研究

以现金流量"扭负"动机为视角,以我国A股市场的上市公司为研究对象,采用销售操控、费用操控和生产操控反映实际活动操控的内容。通过对比分析现金流量"扭负"公司和非"扭负"公司的异常经营现金净流量、异常操控费用、异常生产成本和实际活动整体操控程度的差异,发现上市公司为达到现金流量"扭负"目标,利用实际活动操控来管理现金流量的证据,得出了实际活动操控是现金流量管理方式的结论。

企业经营活动现金流量预测的灰色拓扑模型

企业经营活动现金流量具有小样本、波动大、影响因素多的特点,难以满足现有预测方法对样本的规模及分布要求.本文采用灰色拓扑预测方法建立了经营活动现金流量的灰色拓扑预测模型,克服了传统预测方法对样本数据的限制,实证检验表明该方法能够较好地对经营活动现金流量中期发展趋势进行描述.

盈余项目细分与经营现金流量预测的关系研究

利用1998～2007年提供完整财务报告信息的499家深沪A股上市公司数据,通过对盈余项目的层层分解,发现经营现金流预测模型的预测能力随着项目分解而提高。此外,还发现用现金流量和应计项目衡量时经营活动业绩均不佳的企业,现金流量难以预测,业务较好的企业容易预测。

分段进水生物脱氮工艺的优化控制运行研究

分段进水生物脱氮工艺在脱氮方面具有较强的优势。针对目前国内外对分段进水工艺的研究只是停留在过程仿真与表观处理效果的研究现状,采用模拟生活污水对该工艺的运行特性与优化控制进行了较详尽的基础研究。通过对9组不同C/N值条件下工艺的优化控制运行,补充完善流量的合理分配与各段容积的确定方法,得出了进水C/N值与工艺所能达到的最大流量分配系数间的数学关系表达式,以及在给定负荷条件下对总氮的去除率与流量分配系数之间的关系,为提高工艺脱氮效率的优化控制运行提供了理论基础。此外,还对分段进水工艺各段的硝化速率进行了探讨,并根据得到的运行控制规则进行了分段进水工艺的非稳态试验验证。

再融资公司的现金分红和现金流操控研究

证监会2006年和2008年相继发布了强制拟再融资上市公司分派现金股利的文件,旨在提高股东回报。以2006年和2007年A股再融资上市公司为样本,对这些政策颁布前后上市公司分红和现金流的变化情况进行研究发现,在证监会强制要求下,上市公司的分红水平有所提高,但股利分派也成为了大股东转移公司利益的手段。而且,公司的现金流在再融资前后波动较大,存在被操控的迹象。

会计盈余和经营活动现金流量的信息含量的实证研究

本文对会计盈余和现金流量的信息含量有关文献进行了回顾 ,重点对我国沪市公司公布的会计盈余和经营活动现金流量的信息含量进行了实证研究。本文将非预期会计盈余和非预期经营活动现金流量单独和同时与累计非正常报酬率建立回归模型 ,分别采用混合样本和年度样本对假设进行检验 ,结果证明 :会计盈余和经营活动现金流量都能提供决策信息 ,并且两者的信息含量之间存在差别 。