A Grey Decision Model Used in Bidding for Equipment Purchase

Bidding has long been used as a method for allocating and procuring goods and services. An acurrate and comprehensive evaluation of bidders is the key to make the bidding a successful one for tenderee. However, evaluation of bidders is a tough work and the result of evaluation is always affected by the evaluator's understanding of the standards set for evaluation, and the evaluator's expertise, experience and preferrence. We make an effort to find a method for selecting bidders as accurately as possible. A grey decision model is presented, and an example is illustrated to make the practioners know how to use the model.

Improved grey prediction model based on exponential grey action quantity

With the passage of time, it has become important to investigate new methods for updating data to better fit the trends of the grey prediction model. The traditional GM（1,1） usually sets the grey action quantity as a constant. Therefore, it cannot effectively fit the dynamic characteristics of the sequence, which results in the grey model having a low precision. The linear grey action quantity model cannot represent the index change law. This paper presents a grey action quantity model, the exponential optimization grey model（EOGM（1,1））, based on the exponential type of grey action quantity; it is constructed based on the exponential characteristics of the grey prediction model. The model can fully reflect the exponential characteristics of the simulation series with time. The exponential sequence has a higher fitting accuracy. The optimized result is verified using a numerical example for the fluctuating sequence and a case study for the index of the tertiary industry＇s GDP. The results show that the model improves the precision of the grey forecasting model and reduces the prediction error.

Combined model based on optimized multi-variable grey model and multiple linear regression

The construction method of background value is improved in the original multi-variable grey model （MGM（1,m）） from its source of construction errors. The MGM（1,m） with optimized background value is used to eliminate the random fluctuations or errors of the observational data of all variables, and the combined prediction model together with the multiple linear regression is established in order to improve the simulation and prediction accuracy of the combined model. Finally, a combined model of the MGM（1,2） with optimized background value and the binary linear regression is constructed by an example. The results show that the model has good effects for simulation and prediction.

A New Modified GM (1,1) Model: Grey Optimization Model

Based on the optimization method, a new modified GM (1,1) model is presented, which is characterized by more accuracy prediction for the grey modeling.

Lifetime prediction for tantalum capacitors with multiple degradation measures and particle swarm optimization based grey model

A lifetime prediction method for high-reliability tantalum （Ta） capacitors was proposed, based on multiple degradation measures and grey model （GM）. For analyzing performance degradation data, a two-parameter model based on GM was developed. In order to improve the prediction accuracy of the two-parameter model, parameter selection based on particle swarm optimization （PSO） was used. Then, the new PSO-GM（1, 2, co） optimization model was constructed, which was validated experimentally by conducting an accelerated testing on the Ta capacitors. The experiments were conducted at three different stress levels of 85, 120, and 145℃. The results of two experiments were used in estimating the parameters. And the reliability of the Ta capacitors was estimated at the same stress conditions of the third experiment. The results indicate that the proposed method is valid and accurate.

Fractional derivative multivariable grey model for nonstationary sequence and its application

Most of the existing multivariable grey models are based on the 1-order derivative and 1-order accumulation, which makes the parameters unable to be adjusted according to the data characteristics of the actual problems. The results about fractional derivative multivariable grey models are very few at present. In this paper, a multivariable Caputo fractional derivative grey model with convolution integral CFGMC(q, N) is proposed. First, the Caputo fractional difference is used to discretize the model, and the least square method is used to solve the parameters. The orders of accumulations and differential equations are determined by using particle swarm optimization(PSO). Then, the analytical solution of the model is obtained by using the Laplace transform, and the convergence and divergence of series in analytical solutions are also discussed. Finally, the CFGMC(q, N) model is used to predict the municipal solid waste(MSW). Compared with other competition models, the model has the best prediction effect. This study enriches the model form of the multivariable grey model, expands the scope of application, and provides a new idea for the development of fractional derivative grey model.

Grey series time-delay predicting model in state estimation for power distribution networks

A new combined model is proposed to obtain predictive data value applied in state estimation for radial power distribution networks. The time delay part of the model is calculated by a recursive least squares algorithm of system identification, which can gradually forget past information. The grey series part of the model uses an equal dimension new information model (EDNIM) and it applies 3 points smoothing method to preprocess the original data and modify remnant difference by GM(1,1). Through the optimization of the coefficient of the model, we are able to minimize the error variance of predictive data. A case study shows that the proposed method achieved high calculation precision and speed and it can be used to obtain the predictive value in real time state estimation of power distribution networks.

A Nonlinear Grey Bernoulli Model with Conformable Fractional-Order Accumulation and Its Application to the Gross Regional Product in the Cheng-Yu Area

This study considers a nonlinear grey Bernoulli forecasting model with conformable fractionalorder accumulation,abbreviated as CFNGBM(1,1,λ),to study the gross regional product in the ChengYu area.The new model contains three nonlinear parameters,the power exponentγ,the conformable fractional-orderαand the background valueλ,which increase the adjustability and flexibility of the CFNGBM(1,1,λ)model.Nonlinear parameters are determined by the moth flame optimization algorithm,which minimizes the mean absolute prediction percentage error.The CFNGBM(1,1,λ)model is applied to the gross regional product of 16 cities in the Cheng-Yu area,which are Chongqing,Chengdu,Mianyang,Leshan,Zigong,Deyang,Meishan,Luzhou,Suining,Neijiang,Nanchong,Guang’an,Yibin,Ya’an,Dazhou and Ziyang.With data from 2013 to 2021,several grey models are established and results show that the new model has higher accuracy in most cases.

Forecasting Multi-Step Ahead Monthly Reference Evapotranspiration Using Hybrid Extreme Gradient Boosting with Grey Wolf Optimization Algorithm

It is important for regional water resources management to know the agricultural water consumption information several months in advance.Forecasting reference evapotranspiration(ET_(0))in the next few months is important for irrigation and reservoir management.Studies on forecasting of multiple-month ahead ET_(0) using machine learning models have not been reported yet.Besides,machine learning models such as the XGBoost model has multiple parameters that need to be tuned,and traditional methods can get stuck in a regional optimal solution and fail to obtain a global optimal solution.This study investigated the performance of the hybrid extreme gradient boosting(XGBoost)model coupled with the Grey Wolf Optimizer(GWO)algorithm for forecasting multi-step ahead ET_(0)(1-3 months ahead),compared with three conventional machine learning models,i.e.,standalone XGBoost,multi-layer perceptron(MLP)and M5 model tree(M5)models in the subtropical zone of China.The results showed that theGWO-XGB model generally performed better than the other three machine learning models in forecasting 1-3 months ahead ET_(0),followed by the XGB,M5 and MLP models with very small differences among the three models.The GWO-XGB model performed best in autumn,while the MLP model performed slightly better than the other three models in summer.It is thus suggested to apply the MLP model for ET_(0) forecasting in summer but use the GWO-XGB model in other seasons.

ILSM:Incorporated Lightweight Security Model for Improving QOS in WSN

In the network field,Wireless Sensor Networks(WSN)contain prolonged attention due to afresh augmentations.Industries like health care,traffic,defense,and many more systems espoused the WSN.These networks contain tiny sensor nodes containing embedded processors,TinyOS,memory,and power source.Sensor nodes are responsible for forwarding the data packets.To manage all these components,there is a need to select appropriate parameters which control the quality of service of WSN.Multiple sensor nodes are involved in transmitting vital information,and there is a need for secure and efficient routing to reach the quality of service.But due to the high cost of the network,WSN components have limited resources to manage the network.There is a need to design a lightweight solution that ensures the quality of service in WSN.In this given manner,this study provides the quality of services in a wireless sensor network with a security mechanism.An incorporated hybrid lightweight security model is designed in which random waypoint mobility(RWM)model and grey wolf optimization(GWO)is used to enhance service quality and maintain security with efficient routing.MATLAB version 16 andNetwork Stimulator 2.35(NS2.35)are used in this research to evaluate the results.The overall cost factor is reduced at 60%without the optimization technique and 90.90%reduced by using the optimization technique,which is assessed by calculating the signal-to-noise ratio,overall energy nodes,and communication overhead.

基于博弈论的建设工程项目投标报价模型设计

以建设工程项目招标方与投标方双方利益存在明显博弈过程,当前的报价模型在报价过程中无法实现报价最优,模型设计存在缺陷。设计基于博弈论的建设工程项目投标报价模型。运用关联规则设定相关机制、风险态度理论以及博弈论与招投标过程间的关系,建立招标方与投标方之间以及投标方之间的投标报价博弈模型,引入风险态度因子至投标方之间的投标报价博弈模型中,最优当前报价模型的设计过程。通过实验验证:该模型收敛,可以作为招标方合理选择中标方的依据,指导投标方在满足自身利益最大化的同时,更容易中标。

Swarm-Based Extreme Learning Machine Models for Global Optimization

Extreme Learning Machine(ELM)is popular in batch learning,sequential learning,and progressive learning,due to its speed,easy integration,and generalization ability.While,Traditional ELM cannot train massive data rapidly and efficiently due to its memory residence,high time and space complexity.In ELM,the hidden layer typically necessitates a huge number of nodes.Furthermore,there is no certainty that the arrangement of weights and biases within the hidden layer is optimal.To solve this problem,the traditional ELM has been hybridized with swarm intelligence optimization techniques.This paper displays five proposed hybrid Algorithms“Salp Swarm Algorithm(SSA-ELM),Grasshopper Algorithm(GOA-ELM),Grey Wolf Algorithm(GWO-ELM),Whale optimizationAlgorithm(WOA-ELM)andMoth Flame Optimization(MFO-ELM)”.These five optimizers are hybridized with standard ELM methodology for resolving the tumor type classification using gene expression data.The proposed models applied to the predication of electricity loading data,that describes the energy use of a single residence over a fouryear period.In the hidden layer,Swarm algorithms are used to pick a smaller number of nodes to speed up the execution of ELM.The best weights and preferences were calculated by these algorithms for the hidden layer.Experimental results demonstrated that the proposed MFO-ELM achieved 98.13%accuracy and this is the highest model in accuracy in tumor type classification gene expression data.While in predication,the proposed GOA-ELM achieved 0.397which is least RMSE compared to the other models.

Prediction of Backfill Strength Based on Support Vector Regression Improved by Grey Wolf Optimization

In order to predict backfill strength rapidly with high accuracy and provide a new technical support for digitization and intelligentization of mine,a support vector regression(SVR)model improved by grey wolf optimization(GWO),GWO-SVR model,is established.First,GWO is used to optimize penalty term and kernel function parameter in SVR model with high accuracy based on the experimental data of uniaxial compressive strength of filling body.Subsequently,a prediction model which uses the best two parameters of best c and best g is established with the slurry density,cement dosage,ratio of artificial aggregate to tailings,and curing time taken as input factors,and uniaxial compressive strength of backfill as the output factor.The root mean square error of this GWO-SVR model in predicting backfill strength is 0.143 and the coefficient of determination is 0.983,which means that the predictive effect of this model is accurate and reliable.Compared with the original SVR model without the optimization of GWO and particle swam optimization(PSO)-SVR model,the performance of GWO-SVR model is greatly promoted.The establishment of GWO-SVR model provides a new tool for predicting backfill strength scientifically.

Grey Dynamic Model,Forecasting & Comparison on the Development Trend in Track & Field Sports of Asia & the World

By establishing grey dynamic model and adopting its method, this essay makes forecast and comparison on the developing trend in track and field sports of Asia and the world. To higher the model’s precise, some sequential data are processed by slide mean value, a Maclourin Exponsion is made to some exponents of less adaptable response function and acceptance or rejection is made according to the fitting mode of the number series and their development. In the quatitative analysis, the first locus of the developing coefficient of the model in the sports field is the main basis. The analysis indicates that women’s and men’s field sports in Asia are developing respectively much faster, a little faster than that of the world, but men’s track sports in Asia are progressing paralled to that of the world, and women’s track in Asia remains behind.

Grey Model of the Investment Portfolio Optimization

The theory of investment portfolio is a very important theory in the modern economical system. Based on the feature of the theory, the paper sets up new various kinds of models of investment portfolio, namely grey optimization models. These models are more practical and objective to existing problems.

A novel fractional grey forecasting model with variable weighted buffer operator and its application in forecasting China's crude oil consumption

Oil is an important strategic material and civil energy.Accurate prediction of oil consumption can provide basis for relevant departments to reasonably arrange crude oil production,oil import and export,and optimize the allocation of social resources.Therefore,a new grey model FENBGM(1,1)is proposed to predict oil consumption in China.Firstly,the grey effect of the traditional GM(1,1)model was transformed into a quadratic equation.Four different parameters were introduced to improve the accuracy of the model,and the new initial conditions were designed by optimizing the initial values by weighted buffer operator.Combined with the reprocessing of the original data,the scheme eliminates the random disturbance effect,improves the stability of the system sequence,and can effectively extract the potential pattern of future development.Secondly,the cumulative order of the new model was optimized by fractional cumulative generation operation.At the same time,the smoothness rate quasi-smoothness condition was introduced to verify the stability of the model,and the particle swarm optimization algorithm(PSO)was used to search the optimal parameters of the model to enhance the adaptability of the model.Based on the above improvements,the new combination prediction model overcomes the limitation of the traditional grey model and obtains more accurate and robust prediction results.Then,taking the petroleum consumption of China's manufacturing industry and transportation,storage and postal industry as an example,this paper verifies the validity of FENBGM(1,1)model,analyzes and forecasts China's crude oil consumption with several commonly used forecasting models,and uses FENBGM(1,1)model to forecast China's oil consumption in the next four years.The results show that FENBGM(1,1)model performs best in all cases.Finally,based on the prediction results of FENBGM(1,1)model,some reasonable suggestions are put forward for China's oil consumption planning.

优化背景值的GM(1,1)

为了提高模型的拟合精度,提出了一种新的改进GM(1,1)模型.从优化GM(1,1)模型背景值的定义出发,推导出利用原始数据生成的背景值公式,将其与经过优化的初始条件结合,构造出改进的GM(1,1)模型.此模型将在很大程度上消除由于背景值的选取所产生的误差.对该模型进行数据模拟,通过与原模型中数据的比较、分析,验证出新的优化模型具有更好的模拟精度,说明该模型的有效性,可以将其应用于对其它数据的拟合预测.

基于有限理性的一级密封价格拍卖灰博弈模型研究——基于准确的价值和经验理想报价估价的最优灰报价模型

运用灰系统理论的思想[1],对目前的一级密封价格拍卖博弈模型进行检验和验证,并对其存在的一些缺陷进行了剖析,认为这些经典模型对条件的限制过于严格,与现实的吻合性较差。基于有限理性假设,设计了经验理想报价灰修正系数,建立了基于准确的价值和经验理想报价估价的有限理性最优灰报价模型。对该模型灰系数进行第一标准灰数变换,找到了投标人的威胁反应灰系数;发现了投标人的最优灰报价不仅取决于其自身的价值,而且还取决于他人的价值及其威胁反应灰系数;投标人的最优灰报价不仅仅刚好为其对被拍物品所认可价值的一半,而要视情而定,一般情况下均高于其所认可价值的一半。对该模型进行了数据仿真,得到一些与经典模型有较大差异的有价值的结论,并建议了投标人的最佳投标模式。

Multi-UAV coordination control by chaotic grey wolf optimization based distributed MPC with event-triggered strategy

The paper proposes a new swarm intelligence-based distributed Model Predictive Control(MPC)approach for coordination control of multiple Unmanned Aerial Vehicles(UAVs).First,a distributed MPC framework is designed and each member only shares the information with neighbors.The Chaotic Grey Wolf Optimization(CGWO)method is developed on the basis of chaotic initialization and chaotic search to solve the local Finite Horizon Optimal Control Problem(FHOCP).Then,the distributed cost function is designed and integrated into each FHOCP to achieve multi-UAV formation control and trajectory tracking with no-fly zone constraint.Further,an event-triggered strategy is proposed to reduce the computational burden for the distributed MPC approach,which considers the predicted state errors and the convergence of cost function.Simulation results show that the CGWO-based distributed MPC approach is more computationally efficient to achieve multi-UAV coordination control than traditional method.

Evaluation of global navigation satellite system spoofing efficacy

The spoofing capability of Global Navigation Satellite System(GNSS)represents an important confrontational capability for navigation security,and the success of planned missions may depend on the effective evaluation of spoofing capability.However,current evaluation systems face challenges arising from the irrationality of previous weighting methods,inapplicability of the conventional multi-attribute decision-making method and uncertainty existing in evaluation.To solve these difficulties,considering the validity of the obtained results,an evaluation method based on the game aggregated weight model and a joint approach involving the grey relational analysis and technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution(GRA-TOPSIS)are firstly proposed to determine the optimal scheme.Static and dynamic evaluation results under different schemes are then obtained via a fuzzy comprehensive assessment and an improved dynamic game method,to prioritize the deceptive efficacy of the equipment accurately and make pointed improvement for its core performance.The use of judging indicators,including Spearman rank correlation coefficient and so on,combined with obtained evaluation results,demonstrates the superiority of the proposed method and the optimal scheme by the horizontal comparison of different methods and vertical comparison of evaluation results.Finally,the results of field measurements and simulation tests show that the proposed method can better overcome the difficulties of existing methods and realize the effective evaluation.