A Blind Spot in the Reframing of a Universe of Possibles: Towards a Suitable Model for Decision-Making Theory and A.I.

Bayesian inference model is an optimal processing of incomplete information that, more than other models, better captures the way in which any decision-maker learns and updates his degree of rational beliefs about possible states of nature, in order to make a better judgment while taking new evidence into account. Such a scientific model proposed for the general theory of decision-making, like all others in general, whether in statistics, economics, operations research, A.I., data science or applied mathematics, regardless of whether they are time-dependent, have in common a theoretical basis that is axiomatized by relying on related concepts of a universe of possibles, especially the so-called universe (or the world), the state of nature (or the state of the world), when formulated explicitly. The issue of where to stand as an observer or a decision-maker to reframe such a universe of possibles together with a partition structure of knowledge (i.e. semantic formalisms), including a copy of itself as it was initially while generalizing it, is not addressed. Memory being the substratum, whether human or artificial, wherein everything stands, to date, even the theoretical possibility of such an operation of self-inclusion is prohibited by pure mathematics. We make this blind spot come to light through a counter-example (namely Archimedes’ Eureka experiment) and explore novel theoretical foundations, fitting better with a quantum form than with fuzzy modeling, to deal with more than a reference universe of possibles. This could open up a new path of investigation for the general theory of decision-making, as well as for Artificial Intelligence, often considered as the science of the imitation of human abilities, while being also the science of knowledge representation and the science of concept formation and reasoning.

Decision-Making Model for Farmer Choosing Land Use Based upon Dynamic Optimization Theory

Using the dynamic optimization theory, we described a decision-making model for farmer choosing land use when there are several different kinds of uses for land. To obtain an empirical model that could be easily applied, decision rules for farmer with a single static expectation were given.

HEURISTIC PARTICLE SWARM OPTIMIZATION ALGORITHM FOR AIR COMBAT DECISION-MAKING ON CMTA

Combining the heuristic algorithm （HA） developed based on the specific knowledge of the cooperative multiple target attack （CMTA） tactics and the particle swarm optimization （PSO）, a heuristic particle swarm optimization （HPSO） algorithm is proposed to solve the decision-making （DM） problem. HA facilitates to search the local optimum in the neighborhood of a solution, while the PSO algorithm tends to explore the search space for possible solutions. Combining the advantages of HA and PSO, HPSO algorithms can find out the global optimum quickly and efficiently. It obtains the DM solution by seeking for the optimal assignment of missiles of friendly fighter aircrafts （FAs） to hostile FAs. Simulation results show that the proposed algorithm is superior to the general PSO algorithm and two GA based algorithms in searching for the best solution to the DM problem.

Bi-level model for shared parking decision-making based on parking lot assignment simulation

In order to carry out comprehensive decision-making of multi-class shared parking measures within a region, a bilevel model assisting decision-making is proposed. The upper level selects parkers＇ average satisfaction and the violation rate during peak hours as indices in object function, and sets probability distribution models describing dynamic parking demand of each site, the feasibility of shared parking scenarios and occupancy requirements during peak hours of each parking lot as restrictions. The simulation model in the lower level sets up rules to assign each parker in the random parking demand series to the proper parking lot. An iterative method is proposed to confirm the state of each parking lot at the start of formal simulations. Besides, two patterns linking initialization and formal simulation are presented to acquire multiple solutions. The results of the numerical examples indicate the effectiveness of the model and solution methods.

DECISION-MAKING OF SLICING SCHEME IN FUSED DEPOSITION MODELING PROCESS BASED ON ANALYTICAL HIERARCHICAL PROCESS

Based on analyzing the influences of a slicing scheme on stair-stepping effect, supporting structure, efficiency and deformation, etc. , analytical hierarchical process （AHP） combining with fuzzy synthetic evaluation is introduced to make decision in slicing schemes for a processing part. The application in determining the slicing scheme for a computer mouse during prototyping shows that the method increases the rationality during decision- making and improves quality and efficiency for the prototyping part.

Optimized Allocation Model for Regional Agricultural Fertilizer Resources in Southern Xinjiang from the Perspective of Sustainable Development

[Objective] This study was to establish an optimized model for the allocation of agricultural fertilizer resources in Southern Xinjiang from the perspective of sustainable development.[Method] An optimized model for the allocation of agricultural fertilizer resources was established based on their allocation structure.Combined with the actual agricultural production in Aksu areas of Southern Xinjiang,by establishing a rational evaluation index system,under the premise of considering the planting area constraints,the total water resources constraints and the security constraints of food production,we established the empirical optimal allocation model of the regional agricultural fertilizer resources in Aksu area of Southern Xinjiang.Moreover,we solved the model by using the search algorithm of computer and lingo programming.[Result] The increased economic benefit was near to 1.8 billion Yuan by adopting the optimal allocation methods,with a relative increment of about 34.4%.[Conclusion] Our results provided theoretical basis for achieving the sustainable development of agricultural economy in Southern Xinjiang.

Evolutionary Decision-Making and Planning for Autonomous Driving Based on Safe and Rational Exploration and Exploitation

Decision-making and motion planning are extremely important in autonomous driving to ensure safe driving in a real-world environment.This study proposes an online evolutionary decision-making and motion planning framework for autonomous driving based on a hybrid data-and model-driven method.First,a data-driven decision-making module based on deep reinforcement learning(DRL)is developed to pursue a rational driving performance as much as possible.Then,model predictive control(MPC)is employed to execute both longitudinal and lateral motion planning tasks.Multiple constraints are defined according to the vehicle’s physical limit to meet the driving task requirements.Finally,two principles of safety and rationality for the self-evolution of autonomous driving are proposed.A motion envelope is established and embedded into a rational exploration and exploitation scheme,which filters out unreasonable experiences by masking unsafe actions so as to collect high-quality training data for the DRL agent.Experiments with a high-fidelity vehicle model and MATLAB/Simulink co-simulation environment are conducted,and the results show that the proposed online-evolution framework is able to generate safer,more rational,and more efficient driving action in a real-world environment.

Combined model based on optimized multi-variable grey model and multiple linear regression

The construction method of background value is improved in the original multi-variable grey model （MGM（1,m）） from its source of construction errors. The MGM（1,m） with optimized background value is used to eliminate the random fluctuations or errors of the observational data of all variables, and the combined prediction model together with the multiple linear regression is established in order to improve the simulation and prediction accuracy of the combined model. Finally, a combined model of the MGM（1,2） with optimized background value and the binary linear regression is constructed by an example. The results show that the model has good effects for simulation and prediction.

Optimized design of drilling and blasting operations in open pit mines under technical and economic uncertainties by system dynamic modelling

Drilling and blasting are the two most significant operations in open pit mines that play a crucial role in downstream stages. While previous research has focused on optimizing these operations as two separate parts or merely in a specific parameter, this paper proposes a system dynamic model(SDM) for drilling and blasting operations as an interactive system. In addition, some technical and economic uncertainties such as rock density, uniaxial compressive strength, bit life and operating costs are considered in this system to evaluate the different optimization results. For this purpose, Vensim simulation software is utilized as a powerful dynamic tool for both modelling and optimizing under deterministic and uncertain conditions. It is concluded that an integrated optimization as opposed to the deterministic approach can be efficiently achieved. This however is dependent on the parameters that are considered as uncertainties.

A Decision-Making Framework Model of Cutting Fluid Selection for Green Manufacturing and the Case Study

Pursuing the green manufacturing (GM) of products i s very beneficial in the alleviation of environment burdens. In order to reap such benefits, green manufacturing is involved in every aspect of manufacturing proc esses. During the machining process, cutting fluid is one of the main roots of e nvironmental pollution. And how to make an optimal selection for cutting fluid f or GM is an important path to reduce the environmental pollution. The objective factors of decision-making problems in the traditional selection of cutting flu id are usually two: quality and cost. But from the viewpoint of GM, environmenta l impact (E) should be considered together. In this paper, a multi-object d ecision-making model of cutting fluid selection for GM is put forward, in which the objects of Quality (Q), Cost(C) and Environmental impact (E) are considered together. In this model, E means to minimize the environmental impact, Q means to maximize the quality and C means to minimize the cost. Each objective is anal yzed in detail too. A case study on a decision-making problem of cutting fluid selection in a gear hobbing process is analyzed, and the result shows the model is practical.

Multi-target Collaborative Combat Decision-Making by Improved Particle Swarm Optimizer

A decision-making problem of missile-target assignment with a novel particle swarm optimization algorithm is proposed when it comes to a multiple target collaborative combat situation.The threat function is established to describe air combat situation.Optimization function is used to find an optimal missile-target assignment.An improved particle swarm optimization algorithm is utilized to figure out the optimization function with less parameters,which is based on the adaptive random learning approach.According to the coordinated attack tactics,there are some adjustments to the assignment.Simulation example results show that it is an effective algorithm to handle with the decision-making problem of the missile-target assignment(MTA)in air combat.

Ranking environmental projects model based on multicriteria decision-making and the weight sensitivity analysis

With the fast growth of Chinese economic, more and more capital will be invested in environmental projects. How to select the environmental investment projects （alternatives） for obtaining the best environmental quality and economic benefits is an important problem for the decision makers. The purpose of this paper is to develop a decision-making model to rank a finite number of alternatives with several and sometimes conflicting criteria. A model for ranking the projects of municipal sewage treatment plants is proposed by using exports＇ information and the data of the real projects. And, the ranking result is given based on the PROMETHEE method. Furthermore, by means of the concept of the weight stability intervals （WSI）, the sensitivity of the ranking results to the size of criteria values and the change of weights value of criteria are discussed. The result shows that some criteria, such as “proportion of benefit to project cost”, will influence the ranking result of alternatives very strong while others not. The influence are not only from the value of criterion but also from the changing the weight of criterion. So, some criteria such as “proportion of benefit to project cost” are key critera for ranking the projects. Decision makers must be cautious to them.

Analysis on decision-making model of plan evaluation based on grey relation projection and combination weight algorithm

In military service joint operations, when there are more operational forces, more multifarious materials are consumed, the support is more complex and fuzzy, the deployment of personnel is more rapid, and the support provided by wartime military material support powers can be more effective. When the principles,requirements, influencing factors and goals of military material support forces are deployed in wartime, an evaluation indicator system is established. Thus, a new combined empowerment method based on an analytic hierarchy process（AHP） is developed to calculate the subjective weights, and the rough entropy method is used to calculate the objective weights. Combination weights can be obtained by calculating the weight preference coefficient error, which is determined by combining the cooperative game method and the minimum deviation into objectives. This approach can determine the grey relation projection coefficient and synthesize the measure scheme superiority to finally optimize the deployment plan using the grey relation projection decision-making method. The results show that the method is feasible and effective;it can provide a more scientific and practical decision-making basis for the military material support power deployment in wartime.

COLLISION AVOIDANCE DECISION-MAKING MODEL OF MULTI-AGENTS IN VIRTUAL DRIVING ENVIRONMENT WITH ANALYTIC HIERARCHY PROCESS

Collision avoidance decision-making models of multiple agents in virtual driving environment are studied. Based on the behavioral characteristics and hierarchical structure of the collision avoidance decision-making in real life driving, delphi approach and mathematical statistics method are introduced to construct pair-wise comparison judgment matrix of collision avoidance decision choices to each collision situation. Analytic hierarchy process （AHP） is adopted to establish the agents＇ collision avoidance decision-making model. To simulate drivers＇ characteristics, driver factors are added to categorize driving modes into impatient mode, normal mode, and the cautious mode. The results show that this model can simulate human＇s thinking process, and the agents in the virtual environment can deal with collision situations and make decisions to avoid collisions without intervention. The model can also reflect diversity and uncertainly of real life driving behaviors, and solves the multi-objective, multi-choice ranking priority problem in multi-vehicle collision scenarios. This collision avoidance model of multi-agents model is feasible and effective, and can provide richer and closer-to-life virtual scene for driving simulator, reflecting real-life traffic environment more truly, this model can also promote the practicality of driving simulator.

Determination of the Pile Drivability Using Random Forest Optimized by Particle Swarm Optimization and Bayesian Optimizer

Driven piles are used in many geological environments as a practical and convenient structural component.Hence,the determination of the drivability of piles is actually of great importance in complex geotechnical applications.Conventional methods of predicting pile drivability often rely on simplified physicalmodels or empirical formulas,whichmay lack accuracy or applicability in complex geological conditions.Therefore,this study presents a practical machine learning approach,namely a Random Forest(RF)optimized by Bayesian Optimization(BO)and Particle Swarm Optimization(PSO),which not only enhances prediction accuracy but also better adapts to varying geological environments to predict the drivability parameters of piles(i.e.,maximumcompressive stress,maximum tensile stress,and blow per foot).In addition,support vector regression,extreme gradient boosting,k nearest neighbor,and decision tree are also used and applied for comparison purposes.In order to train and test these models,among the 4072 datasets collected with 17model inputs,3258 datasets were randomly selected for training,and the remaining 814 datasets were used for model testing.Lastly,the results of these models were compared and evaluated using two performance indices,i.e.,the root mean square error(RMSE)and the coefficient of determination(R2).The results indicate that the optimized RF model achieved lower RMSE than other prediction models in predicting the three parameters,specifically 0.044,0.438,and 0.146;and higher R^(2) values than other implemented techniques,specifically 0.966,0.884,and 0.977.In addition,the sensitivity and uncertainty of the optimized RF model were analyzed using Sobol sensitivity analysis and Monte Carlo(MC)simulation.It can be concluded that the optimized RF model could be used to predict the performance of the pile,and it may provide a useful reference for solving some problems under similar engineering conditions.

Establishment of an optimized CTC detection model consisting of EpCAM,MUC1 and WT1 in epithelial ovarian cancer and its correlation with clinical characteristics

Objective:Emerging studies have demonstrated the promising clinical value of circulating tumor cells(CTCs)for diagnosis,disease assessment,treatment monitoring and prognosis in epithelial ovarian cancer.However,the clinical application of CTC remains restricted due to diverse detection techniques with variable sensitivity and specificity and a lack of common standards.Methods:We enrolled 160 patients with epithelial ovarian cancer as the experimental group,and 90 patients including 50 patients with benign ovarian tumor and 40 healthy females as the control group.We enriched CTCs with immunomagnetic beads targeting two epithelial cell surface antigens(EpCAM and MUC1),and used multiple reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction(RT-PCR)detecting three markers(EpCAM,MUC1 and WT1)for quantification.And then we used a binary logistic regression analysis and focused on EpCAM,MUC1 and WT1 to establish an optimized CTC detection model.Results:The sensitivity and specificity of the optimized model is 79.4%and 92.2%,respectively.The specificity of the CTC detection model is significantly higher than CA125(92.2%vs.82.2%,P=0.044),and the detection rate of CTCs was higher than the positive rate of CA125(74.5%vs.58.2%,P=0.069)in early-stage patients(stage I and II).The detection rate of CTCs was significantly higher in patients with ascitic volume≥500 mL,suboptimal cytoreductive surgery and elevated serum CA125 level after 2 courses of chemotherapy(P<0.05).The detection rate of CTC;and CTC;was significantly higher in chemo-resistant patients(26.3%vs.11.9%;26.4%vs.13.4%,P<0.05).The median progression-free survival time for CTC;patients trended to be longer than CTC;patients,and overall survival was shorter in CTC;patients(P=0.043).Conclusions:Our study presents an optimized detection model for CTCs,which consists of the expression levels of three markers(EpCAM,MUC1 and WT1).In comparison with CA125,our model has high specificity and demonstrates better diagnostic values,especially for early-stage ovarian cancer.Detection of CTC;and CTC;had predictive value for chemotherapy resistance,and the detection of CTC;suggested poor prognosis.

An Optimization Approach of IoD Deployment for Optimal Coverage Based on Radio Frequency Model

Recently,Internet of Drones(IoD)has garnered significant attention due to its widespread applications.However,deploying IoD for area coverage poses numerous limitations and challenges.These include interference between neighboring drones,the need for directional antennas,and altitude restrictions for drones.These challenges necessitate the development of efficient solutions.This research paper presents a cooperative decision-making approach for an efficient IoDdeployment to address these challenges effectively.The primary objective of this study is to achieve an efficient IoDdeployment strategy thatmaximizes the coverage regionwhile minimizing interference between neighboring drones.In deployment problem,the interference increases as the number of deployed drones increases,resulting in bad quality of communication.On the other hand,deploying a few drones cannot satisfy the coverage demand.To accomplish this,an enhanced version of a concise population-based meta-heuristic algorithm,namely Improved Particle SwarmOptimization(IPSO),is applied.The objective function of IPSO is defined based on the coverage probability,which is primarily influenced by the characteristics of the antennas and drone altitude.A radio frequency(RF)model is derived to evaluate the coverage quality,considering both Line of Sight(LOS)and Non-Line of Sight(NLOS)down-link coverage probabilities for ground communication.It is assumed that each drone is equipped with a directional antenna to optimize coverage in a given region.Extensive simulations are conducted to assess the effectiveness of the proposed approach.Results demonstrate that the proposed method achieves maximum coverage with minimum transmission power.Furthermore,a comparison is made against Collaborative Visual Area Coverage Approach(CVACA),and a game-based approach in terms of coverage quality and convergence speed.The simulation results reveal that our approach outperforms both CVACA and the gamebased schemes in terms of coverage and convergence speed.Comparisons validate the superiority of our approach over existing methods.To assess the robustness of the proposed RFmodel,we have considered two distinct ranges of noise:range1 spanning from−120 to−90 dBm,and range2 spanning from−90 to−70 dBmfor different numbers of UAVs.In summary,this research presents a cooperative decision-making approach for efficient IoD deployment to address the challenges associatedwith area coverage and achieves an optimal coveragewithminimal interference.

Optimized Binary Neural Networks for Road Anomaly Detection:A TinyML Approach on Edge Devices

Integrating Tiny Machine Learning(TinyML)with edge computing in remotely sensed images enhances the capabilities of road anomaly detection on a broader level.Constrained devices efficiently implement a Binary Neural Network(BNN)for road feature extraction,utilizing quantization and compression through a pruning strategy.The modifications resulted in a 28-fold decrease in memory usage and a 25%enhancement in inference speed while only experiencing a 2.5%decrease in accuracy.It showcases its superiority over conventional detection algorithms in different road image scenarios.Although constrained by computer resources and training datasets,our results indicate opportunities for future research,demonstrating that quantization and focused optimization can significantly improve machine learning models’accuracy and operational efficiency.ARM Cortex-M0 gives practical feasibility and substantial benefits while deploying our optimized BNN model on this low-power device:Advanced machine learning in edge computing.The analysis work delves into the educational significance of TinyML and its essential function in analyzing road networks using remote sensing,suggesting ways to improve smart city frameworks in road network assessment,traffic management,and autonomous vehicle navigation systems by emphasizing the importance of new technologies for maintaining and safeguarding road networks.

Optimized Two-Level Ensemble Model for Predicting the Parameters of Metamaterial Antenna

Employing machine learning techniques in predicting the parameters of metamaterial antennas has a significant impact on the reduction of the time needed to design an antenna with optimal parameters using simulation tools.In this paper,we propose a new approach for predicting the bandwidth of metamaterial antenna using a novel ensemble model.The proposed ensemble model is composed of two levels of regression models.The first level consists of three strong models namely,random forest,support vector regression,and light gradient boosting machine.Whereas the second level is based on the ElasticNet regression model,which receives the prediction results from the models in the first level for refinement and producing the final optimal result.To achieve the best performance of these regression models,the advanced squirrel search optimization algorithm(ASSOA)is utilized to search for the optimal set of hyper-parameters of each model.Experimental results show that the proposed two-level ensemble model could achieve a robust prediction of the bandwidth of metamaterial antenna when compared with the recently published ensemble models based on the same publicly available benchmark dataset.The findings indicate that the proposed approach results in root mean square error(RMSE)of(0.013),mean absolute error(MAE)of(0.004),and mean bias error(MBE)of(0.0017).These results are superior to the other competing ensemble models and can predict the antenna bandwidth more accurately.

Battlefield target intelligence system architecture modeling and system optimization

To address the current problems of poor generality,low real-time,and imperfect information transmission of the battlefield target intelligence system,this paper studies the battlefield target intelligence system from the top-level perspective of multi-service joint warfare.First,an overall planning and analysis method of architecture modeling is proposed with the idea of a bionic analogy for battlefield target intelligence system architecture modeling,which reduces the difficulty of the planning and design process.The method introduces the Department of Defense architecture framework(DoDAF)modeling method,the multi-living agent(MLA)theory modeling method,and other combinations for planning and modeling.A set of rapid planning methods that can be applied to model the architecture of various types of complex systems is formed.Further,the liveness analysis of the battlefield target intelligence system is carried out,and the problems of the existing system are presented from several aspects.And the technical prediction of the development and construction is given,which provides directional ideas for the subsequent research and development of the battlefield target intelligence system.In the end,the proposed architecture model of the battlefield target intelligence system is simulated and verified by applying the colored Petri nets(CPN)simulation software.The analysis demonstrates the reasonable integrity of its logic.