Idealized Experiments for Optimizing Model Parameters Using a 4D-Variational Method in an Intermediate Coupled Model of ENSO

Large biases exist in real-time ENSO prediction, which can be attributed to uncertainties in initial conditions and model parameters. Previously, a 4D variational （4D-Vat） data assimilation system was developed for an intermediate coupled model （ICM） and used to improve ENSO modeling through optimized initial conditions. In this paper, this system is further applied to optimize model parameters. In the ICM used, one important process for ENSO is related to the anomalous temperature of subsurface water entrained into the mixed layer （Te）, which is empirically and explicitly related to sea level （SL） variation. The strength of the thermocline effect on SST （referred to simply as ＂the thermocline effect＂） is represented by an introduced parameter, （l＇Te. A numerical procedure is developed to optimize this model parameter through the 4D-Var assimilation of SST data in a twin experiment context with an idealized setting. Experiments having their initial condition optimized only, and having their initial condition plus this additional model parameter optimized, are compared. It is shown that ENSO evolution can be more effectively recovered by including the additional optimization of this parameter in ENSO modeling. The demonstrated feasibility of optimizing model parameters and initial conditions together through the 4D-Var method provides a modeling platform for ENSO studies. Further applications of the 4D-Vat data assimilation system implemented in the ICM are also discussed.

The Study of Optimizing Reservoir Model Using Experimental Design in Stochastic Models

In response to the main problems in commonly used model selection methods,a method was proposed to apply the concept of experimental design to the optimization of uncertain reservoir models.Firstly,based on the actual situation of the oil field,the uncertain variables were determined that affect the geological reserves of the model and their possible range of variation,and experimental design was used to determine the modeling plan.Then,multiple geological models were established and reserves were calculated,and multiple regression was performed between uncertain variables and the corresponding geological reserves of the model.Finally,Monte Carlo simulation technology was applied to determine the parameters of the P10,P50,and P90 models for probabilistic reserves,and P10,P50,and P90 models were established.This method is not only more objective and time-saving in the application process,but also can determine the main geological variables that affect geological reserves,providing a new idea for evaluating the uncertainty of geological reserves.

OPTIMIZING FORMULATION OF HYBRID MODEL FOR THIN AND MODERATELY THICK PLATES

A 20 - DOF hybrid stress element based upon Mindlin plate theory is developed using the optimization design method for thin and moderately thick plates. Numerical tests consist of the convergency and performance to the plates with arbitrary thickness and shape and of the ultimate thin plate problems.

A robust optimization model for demand response management with source-grid-load collaboration to consume wind-power

To accommodate wind power as safely as possible and deal with the uncertainties of the output power of winddriven generators,a min-max-min two-stage robust optimization model is presented,considering the unit commitment,source-network load collaboration,and control of the load demand response.After the constraint functions are linearized,the original problem is decomposed into the main problem and subproblem as a matrix using the strong dual method.The minimum-maximum of the original problem was continuously maximized using the iterative method,and the optimal solution was finally obtained.The constraint conditions expressed by the matrix may reduce the calculation time,and the upper and lower boundaries of the original problem may rapidly converge.The results of the example show that the injected nodes of the wind farms in the power grid should be selected appropriately;otherwise,it is easy to cause excessive accommodation of wind power at some nodes,leading to a surge in reserve costs and the load demand response is continuously optimized to reduce the inverse peak regulation characteristics of wind power.Thus,the most economical optimization scheme for the worst scenario of the output power of the generators is obtained,which proves the economy and reliability of the two-stage robust optimization method.

Double-Layer-Optimizing Method of Hybrid Energy Storage Microgrid Based on Improved Grey Wolf Optimization

To reduce the comprehensive costs of the construction and operation of microgrids and to minimize the power fluctuations caused by randomness and intermittency in distributed generation,a double-layer optimizing configuration method of hybrid energy storage microgrid based on improved grey wolf optimization(IGWO)is proposed.Firstly,building a microgrid system containing a wind-solar power station and electric-hydrogen coupling hybrid energy storage system.Secondly,the minimum comprehensive cost of the construction and operation of the microgrid is taken as the outer objective function,and the minimum peak-to-valley of the microgrid’s daily output is taken as the inner objective function.By iterating through the outer and inner layers,the system improves operational stability while achieving economic configuration.Then,using the energy-self-smoothness of the microgrid as the evaluation index,a double-layer optimizing configuration method of the microgrid is constructed.Finally,to improve the disadvantages of grey wolf optimization(GWO),such as slow convergence in the later period and easy falling into local optima,by introducing the convergence factor nonlinear adjustment strategy and Cauchy mutation operator,an IGWO with excellent global performance is proposed.After testing with the typical test functions,the superiority of IGWO is verified.Next,using IGWO to solve the double-layer model.The case analysis shows that compared to GWO and particle swarm optimization(PSO),the IGWO reduced the comprehensive cost by 15.6%and 18.8%,respectively.Therefore,the proposed double-layer optimizationmethod of capacity configuration ofmicrogrid with wind-solar-hybrid energy storage based on IGWO could effectively improve the independence and stability of the microgrid and significantly reduce the comprehensive cost.

A review of uncertain factors and analytic methods in long-term energy system optimization models

A larger number of uncertain factors in energy systems influence their evolution.Owing to the complexity of energy system modeling,incorporating uncertainty analysis to energy system modeling is essential for future energy system planning and resource allocation.This study focusses on long-term energy system optimization model.The important uncertain parameters in the model are analyzed and divided into policy,economic,and technical factors.This study specifically addresses the challenges related to carbon emission reduction and energy transition.It involves collecting and organizing relevant research on uncertainty analysis of long-term energy systems.Various energy system uncertainty modeling methods and their applications from the literature are summarized in this review.Finally,important uncertainty factors and uncertainty modeling methods for long-term energy system modeling are discussed,and future research directions are proposed.

Modeling and Optimization of Solar Collector Design for the Improvement of Solar-Air Source Heat Pump Building Heating System

To enhance system stability,solar collectors have been integrated with air-source heat pumps.This integration facilitates the concurrent utilization of solar and air as energy sources for the system,leading to an improvement in the system’s heat generation coefficient,overall efficiency,and stability.In this study,we focus on a residential building located in Lhasa as the target for heating purposes.Initially,we simulate and analyze a solar-air source heat pump combined heating system.Subsequently,while ensuring the system meets user requirements,we examine the influence of solar collector installation angles and collector area on the performance of the solar-air source heat pump dual heating system.Through this analysis,we determine the optimal installation angle and collector area to optimize system performance.

A novel model to evaluate spatial structure in thinned conifer-broadleaved mixed natural forests

In order to ensure the effective analysis and reconstruction of forests,it is key to ensure the quantitative description of their spatial structure.In this paper,a distance model for the optimal stand spatial structure based on weighted Voronoi diagrams is proposed.In particular,we provide a novel methodological model for the comprehensive evaluation of the spatial structure of forest stands in natural mixed conifer-broadleaved forests and the formulation of management decision plans.The applicability of the rank evaluation and the optimal solution distance model are compared and assessed for different standard sample plots of natural mixed conifer-broadleaved forests.The effect of crown width on the spatial structure unit of the trees is observed to be higher than that of the diameter at breast height.Moreover,the influence of crown length is greater than that of tree height.There are nine possible spatial structure units determined by the weighted Voronoi diagram for the number of neighboring trees in the central tree,with an average intersection of neighboring crowns reaching 80%.The rank rating of natural forest sample plots is correlated with the optimal solution distance model,and their results are generally consistent for natural forests.However,the rank rating is not able to provide a quantitative assessment.The optimal solution distance model is observed to be more comprehensive than traditional methods for the evaluation of the spatial structure of forest stands.It can effectively reflect the trends in realistic stand spatial structure factors close to or far from the ideal structure point,and accurately assesses the forest spatial structure.The proposed optimal solution distance model improves the integrated evaluation of the spatial structure of forest stands and provides solid theoretical and technical support for sustainable forest management.

Hybrid Power Bank Deployment Model for Energy Supply Coverage Optimization in Industrial Wireless Sensor Network

Energy supply is one of the most critical challenges of wireless sensor networks(WSNs)and industrial wireless sensor networks(IWSNs).While research on coverage optimization problem(COP)centers on the network’s monitoring coverage,this research focuses on the power banks’energy supply coverage.The study of 2-D and 3-D spaces is typical in IWSN,with the realistic environment being more complex with obstacles(i.e.,machines).A 3-D surface is the field of interest(FOI)in this work with the established hybrid power bank deployment model for the energy supply COP optimization of IWSN.The hybrid power bank deployment model is highly adaptive and flexible for new or existing plants already using the IWSN system.The model improves the power supply to a more considerable extent with the least number of power bank deployments.The main innovation in this work is the utilization of a more practical surface model with obstacles and training while improving the convergence speed and quality of the heuristic algorithm.An overall probabilistic coverage rate analysis of every point on the FOI is provided,not limiting the scope to target points or areas.Bresenham’s algorithm is extended from 2-D to 3-D surface to enhance the probabilistic covering model for coverage measurement.A dynamic search strategy(DSS)is proposed to modify the artificial bee colony(ABC)and balance the exploration and exploitation ability for better convergence toward eliminating NP-hard deployment problems.Further,the cellular automata(CA)is utilized to enhance the convergence speed.The case study based on two typical FOI in the IWSN shows that the CA scheme effectively speeds up the optimization process.Comparative experiments are conducted on four benchmark functions to validate the effectiveness of the proposed method.The experimental results show that the proposed algorithm outperforms the ABC and gbest-guided ABC(GABC)algorithms.The results show that the proposed energy coverage optimization method based on the hybrid power bank deployment model generates more accurate results than the results obtained by similar algorithms(i.e.,ABC,GABC).The proposed model is,therefore,effective and efficient for optimization in the IWSN.

A Composite Transformer-Based Multi-Stage Defect Detection Architecture for Sewer Pipes

Urban sewer pipes are a vital infrastructure in modern cities,and their defects must be detected in time to prevent potential malfunctioning.In recent years,to relieve the manual efforts by human experts,models based on deep learning have been introduced to automatically identify potential defects.However,these models are insufficient in terms of dataset complexity,model versatility and performance.Our work addresses these issues with amulti-stage defect detection architecture using a composite backbone Swin Transformer.Themodel based on this architecture is trained using a more comprehensive dataset containingmore classes of defects.By ablation studies on the modules of combined backbone Swin Transformer,multi-stage detector,test-time data augmentation and model fusion,it is revealed that they all contribute to the improvement of detection accuracy from different aspects.The model incorporating all these modules achieves the mean Average Precision(mAP)of 78.6% at an Intersection over Union(IoU)threshold of 0.5.This represents an improvement of 14.1% over the ResNet50 Faster Region-based Convolutional Neural Network(R-CNN)model and a 6.7% improvement over You Only Look Once version 6(YOLOv6)-large,the highest in the YOLO methods.In addition,for other defect detection models for sewer pipes,although direct comparison with themis infeasible due to the unavailability of their private datasets,our results are obtained from a more comprehensive dataset and have superior generalization capabilities.

Optimisation of Thermal Comfort of Building in a Hot and Dry Tropical Climate: A Comparative Approach between Compressed Earth/Concrete Block Envelopes

Compressed earth blocks (CEB) are an alternative to cement blocks in the construction of wall masonry. However, the optimal architectural construction methods for adequate thermal comfort for occupants in hot and arid environments are not mastered. This article evaluates the influence of architectural and constructive modes of buildings made of CEB walls and concrete block walls, to optimize and compare their thermal comfort in the hot and dry tropical climate of Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso. Two identical pilot buildings whose envelopes are made of CEB and concrete blocks were monitored for this study. The thermal models of the pilot buildings were implemented in the SketchUp software using an extension of EnergyPlus. The models were empirically validated after calibration against measured thermal data from the buildings. The models were used to do a parametric analysis for optimization of the thermal performances by simulating plaster coatings on the exterior of walls, airtight openings and natural ventilation depending on external weather conditions. The results show that the CEB building displays 7016 hours of discomfort, equivalent to 80.1% of the time, and the concrete building displays 6948 hours of discomfort, equivalent to 79.3% of the time. The optimization by modifications reduced the discomfort to 2918 and 3125 hours respectively;i.e. equivalent to only 33.3% for the CEB building and 35.7% for the concrete building. More study should evaluate thermal optimizations in buildings in real time of usage such as residential buildings commonly used by the local middle class. The use of CEB as a construction material and passive means of improving thermal comfort is a suitable ecological and economical option to replace cementitious material.

A New Modified GM (1,1) Model: Grey Optimization Model

Based on the optimization method, a new modified GM (1,1) model is presented, which is characterized by more accuracy prediction for the grey modeling.

Opti mization and Model of Laminar Cooling Control Systemfor Hot Strip Mills

The structure of laminar cooling control system for hot rolling was introduced and the control mode, cooling strategy, segment tracking and model recalculation were analyzed. The parameters of air/water cooling models were optimized by regressing the data gathering in situ, and satisfactory effect was obtained. The coiling temperature can be controlled within ±15℃.

Stabilisation analysis of multiple car-following model in traffic flow

An improved multiple car-following model is proposed by considering the arbitrary number of preceding cars, which includes both the headway and the velocity difference of multiple preceding cars. The stability condition of the extended model is obtained by using the linear stability theory. The modified Korteweg-de Vries equation is derived to describe the traffic behaviour near the critical point by applying the nonlinear analysis. Traffic flow can be also divided into three regions： stable metastable and unstable regions. Numerical simulation is in accordance with the analytical result for the model. And numerical simulation shows that the stabilisation of traffic is increasing by considering the information of more leading cars and there is unavoidable effect on traffic flow from the multiple leading cars information.

Enterprise resource planning implementation decision & optimization models

To study the uncertain optimization problems on implementation schedule, time-cost trade-off and quality in enterprise resource planning （ERP） implementation, combined with program evaluation and review technique （PERT）, some optimization models are proposed, which include the implementation schedule model, the timecost trade-off model, the quality model, and the implementation time-cost-quality synthetic optimization model. A PERT-embedded genetic algorithm （GA） based on stochastic simulation technique is introduced to the optimization models solution. Finally, an example is presented to show that the models and algorithm are reasonable and effective, which can offer a reliable quantitative decision method for ERP implementation.

Different effects of economic and structural performance indexes on model construction of structural topology optimization

The objective and constraint functions related to structural optimization designs are classified into economic and performance indexes in this paper.The influences of their different roles in model construction of structural topology optimization are also discussed.Furthermore,two structural topology optimization models,optimizing a performance index under the limitation of an economic index,represented by the minimum compliance with a volume constraint（MCVC）model,and optimizing an economic index under the limitation of a performance index,represented by the minimum weight with a displacement constraint（MWDC）model,are presented.Based on a comparison of numerical example results,the conclusions can be summarized as follows：（1）under the same external loading and displacement performance conditions,the results of the MWDC model are almost equal to those of the MCVC model;（2）the MWDC model overcomes the difficulties and shortcomings of the MCVC model;this makes the MWDC model more feasible in model construction;（3）constructing a model of minimizing an economic index under the limitations of performance indexes is better at meeting the needs of practical engineering problems and completely satisfies safety and economic requirements in mechanical engineering,which have remained unchanged since the early days of mechanical engineering.

Multiple car-following model of traffic flow and numerical simulation

On the basis of the full velocity difference （FVD） model, an improved multiple car-following （MCF） model is proposed by taking into account multiple information inputs from preceding vehicles. The linear stability condition of the model is obtained by using the linear stability theory. Through nonlinear analysis, a modified Korteweg-de Vries equation is constructed and solved. The traffic jam can thus be described by the klnk-antikink soliton solution for the mKdV equation. The improvement of this new model over the previous ones lies in the fact that it not only theoretically retains many strong points of the previous ones, but also performs more realistically than others in the dynamical evolution of congestion. Furthermore, numerical simulation of traffic dynamics shows that the proposed model can avoid the disadvantage of negative velocity that occurs at small sensitivity coefficients λ in the FVD model by adjusting the information on the multiple leading vehicles. No collision occurs and no unrealistic deceleration appears in the improved model.

An LCOR model for suppressing cascading failure in weighted complex networks

Based on the relationship between capacity and load, cascading failure on weighted complex networks is investigated, and a load-capacity optimal relationship （LCOR） model is proposed in this paper. Compared with three other kinds of load- capacity linear or non-linear relationship models in model networks as well as a number of real-world weighted networks including the railway network, the airports network and the metro network, the LCOR model is shown to have the best robustness against cascading failure with less cost. Furthermore, theoretical analysis and computational method of its cost threshold are provided to validate the effectiveness of the LCOR model. The results show that the LCOR model is effective for designing real-world networks with high robustness and less cost against cascading failure.

Establishment of an optimized CTC detection model consisting of EpCAM,MUC1 and WT1 in epithelial ovarian cancer and its correlation with clinical characteristics

Objective:Emerging studies have demonstrated the promising clinical value of circulating tumor cells(CTCs)for diagnosis,disease assessment,treatment monitoring and prognosis in epithelial ovarian cancer.However,the clinical application of CTC remains restricted due to diverse detection techniques with variable sensitivity and specificity and a lack of common standards.Methods:We enrolled 160 patients with epithelial ovarian cancer as the experimental group,and 90 patients including 50 patients with benign ovarian tumor and 40 healthy females as the control group.We enriched CTCs with immunomagnetic beads targeting two epithelial cell surface antigens(EpCAM and MUC1),and used multiple reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction(RT-PCR)detecting three markers(EpCAM,MUC1 and WT1)for quantification.And then we used a binary logistic regression analysis and focused on EpCAM,MUC1 and WT1 to establish an optimized CTC detection model.Results:The sensitivity and specificity of the optimized model is 79.4%and 92.2%,respectively.The specificity of the CTC detection model is significantly higher than CA125(92.2%vs.82.2%,P=0.044),and the detection rate of CTCs was higher than the positive rate of CA125(74.5%vs.58.2%,P=0.069)in early-stage patients(stage I and II).The detection rate of CTCs was significantly higher in patients with ascitic volume≥500 mL,suboptimal cytoreductive surgery and elevated serum CA125 level after 2 courses of chemotherapy(P<0.05).The detection rate of CTC;and CTC;was significantly higher in chemo-resistant patients(26.3%vs.11.9%;26.4%vs.13.4%,P<0.05).The median progression-free survival time for CTC;patients trended to be longer than CTC;patients,and overall survival was shorter in CTC;patients(P=0.043).Conclusions:Our study presents an optimized detection model for CTCs,which consists of the expression levels of three markers(EpCAM,MUC1 and WT1).In comparison with CA125,our model has high specificity and demonstrates better diagnostic values,especially for early-stage ovarian cancer.Detection of CTC;and CTC;had predictive value for chemotherapy resistance,and the detection of CTC;suggested poor prognosis.

Nonlinear optimal model and solving algorithms for platform planning problem in battlefield

Platform planning is one of the important problems in the command and control(C2) field. Hereto, we analyze the platform planning problem and present nonlinear optimal model aiming at maximizing the task completion qualities. Firstly, we take into account the relation among tasks and build the single task nonlinear optimal model with a set of platform constraints. The Lagrange relaxation method and the pruning strategy are used to solve the model. Secondly, this paper presents optimization-based planning algorithms for efficiently allocating platforms to multiple tasks. To achieve the balance of the resource assignments among tasks, the m-best assignment algorithm and the pair-wise exchange(PWE)method are used to maximize multiple tasks completion qualities.Finally, a series of experiments are designed to verify the superiority and effectiveness of the proposed model and algorithms.