In this study,we develop and empirically test a valuation model for a commonly encountered option in office leases:a tenant’s option to renew at future market rent(a fair market value)with lease termination as the ma...In this study,we develop and empirically test a valuation model for a commonly encountered option in office leases:a tenant’s option to renew at future market rent(a fair market value)with lease termination as the maturity date.The model integrates decision analysis with real options analysis and market risk with private risks.“Option value”is defined as the private value of the option to either party pre-contract,while“option price”assumes a fair agreement between transacting parties and can be positive(rental premium paid)or negative(rental discount offered).Without manifest expectations,an analysis of a sample of office leases supports the model’s logic with price estimates in a practical range.The tenants’option price/value is shown to have a negative relationship with the original/renewal lease term;conversely,the landlords’option value is positively related to the original/renewal term.Comparative analyses show that transaction costs have a positive effect on tenants’option value and on prices,while vacancy costs and the vacancy period are both positively related to the landlords’option value and negatively related to price.Market rent is found to have a negative relationship with option price.Overall,this study provides a theoretical analysis and empirical tests of the value of a real option that allows option holders to renew/extend their contracts at a fair market value.展开更多
In this paper,the optional and predictable projections of set-valued measurable processes are studied.The existence and uniqueness of optional and predictable projections of set-valued measurable processes are proved ...In this paper,the optional and predictable projections of set-valued measurable processes are studied.The existence and uniqueness of optional and predictable projections of set-valued measurable processes are proved under proper circumstances.展开更多
Background:We investigated the determination of the pledged loan-to-value ratio in an optionpricing environment and mainly articulated the theoretical framework and analytical method.Methods:The basic idea is that the...Background:We investigated the determination of the pledged loan-to-value ratio in an optionpricing environment and mainly articulated the theoretical framework and analytical method.Methods:The basic idea is that the present value of the pledged loan payoff is equal to a put option’s value.While the interest rate is fixed and the loan is without coupon,we analyzed the pledged loan-to-value ratioin the option pricing perspective and got it that the pledged loan-to-value ratio is decided by term,excessreturn,and the value volatility of the pledge.Next,we extended the same work to coupon loan and portfoliopledge circumstances.For zero coupon and fixed interest rate circumstances,we performed a numericalanalysis.Results:Our results indicate the following:the pledged loan-to-value ratio is a convex decreasing function ofthe term;and the pledged loan-to-value ratio is a concave decreasing function of the value volatility of the pledge;and the pledged loan-to-value ratio is a concave increasing function of the risk premium.For floating interest rate circumstances,we should specify the function form between the loan interest and the risk-free rate.Conclusions:The scientific measurement of the pledged loan-to-value ratio means that simple rules of thumb or the VaR method may lead to mispricing,which could create the possibility of arbitrage.In this way,a new direction for trading derivative products of pledges will be provided.展开更多
Based on the value sensitivity of options to underlying and corresponding treaty clauses, this paper poses a measuring method of path dependence intensity, which breaks the setup where the path dependence intensity is...Based on the value sensitivity of options to underlying and corresponding treaty clauses, this paper poses a measuring method of path dependence intensity, which breaks the setup where the path dependence intensity is only classified roughly and which becomes a deep study on path-dependent options. Then, its feasibility, instructions, and application to compare the path dependence intensity of sorts of options will be discussed.展开更多
Solution of the system stochastic differential equations in multi dimensional case using Monte Carlo method had many useful features in compare with the other computational methods. One of them is the solution of boun...Solution of the system stochastic differential equations in multi dimensional case using Monte Carlo method had many useful features in compare with the other computational methods. One of them is the solution of boundary value problems to be found at just one point, if required (with associated saving in computation), whereas deterministic methods necessarily find the solution at large number of points simultaneously. This property can be particularly useful in problems such option pricing, where the value of an option is required only at the time of striking, and for the state of the market at that time. In this work we consider a European multi-asset options which mathematically described by the system of stochastic differential equations. We will apply Monte Carlo method for the solution of that system which is the price of Multi-asset rainbow options.展开更多
We compare the optimal operating cost of the two bicriterion policies, <p,T> and <p,N>, for an M/G/1 queueing system with second optional service, in which the length of the vacation period is randomly con...We compare the optimal operating cost of the two bicriterion policies, <p,T> and <p,N>, for an M/G/1 queueing system with second optional service, in which the length of the vacation period is randomly controlled either by the number of arrivals during the idle period or by a timer. After all the customers are served in the queue exhaustively, the server immediately takes a vacation and may operate <p,T> policy or <p,N> policy. For the two bicriterion policies, the total average cost function per unit time is developed to search the optimal stationary operating policies at a minimum cost. Based upon the optimal cost the explicit forms for joint optimum threshold values of (p,T) and (p,N) are obtained.展开更多
In this paper, we present a new approach for solving boundary value problem in partial differential equation arising in financial market by means of the Laplace transform. The result shows that the Laplace transform f...In this paper, we present a new approach for solving boundary value problem in partial differential equation arising in financial market by means of the Laplace transform. The result shows that the Laplace transform for the price of the European call option which pays dividend yield reduces to the Black-Scholes-Merton model.展开更多
Maximum likelihood (ML) estimation for the generalized asymmetric Laplace (GAL) distribution also known as Variance gamma using simplex direct search algorithms is investigated. In this paper, we use numerical direct ...Maximum likelihood (ML) estimation for the generalized asymmetric Laplace (GAL) distribution also known as Variance gamma using simplex direct search algorithms is investigated. In this paper, we use numerical direct search techniques for maximizing the log-likelihood to obtain ML estimators instead of using the traditional EM algorithm. The density function of the GAL is only continuous but not differentiable with respect to the parameters and the appearance of the Bessel function in the density make it difficult to obtain the asymptotic covariance matrix for the entire GAL family. Using M-estimation theory, the properties of the ML estimators are investigated in this paper. The ML estimators are shown to be consistent for the GAL family and their asymptotic normality can only be guaranteed for the asymmetric Laplace (AL) family. The asymptotic covariance matrix is obtained for the AL family and it completes the results obtained previously in the literature. For the general GAL model, alternative methods of inferences based on quadratic distances (QD) are proposed. The QD methods appear to be overall more efficient than likelihood methods infinite samples using sample sizes n ≤5000 and the range of parameters often encountered for financial data. The proposed methods only require that the moment generating function of the parametric model exists and has a closed form expression and can be used for other models.展开更多
There are many kinds of real options,which are valuable,in each phase of the lifetime of an information technology(IT)project.However,in the current IT investment decision theory,real options that embedded in IT proje...There are many kinds of real options,which are valuable,in each phase of the lifetime of an information technology(IT)project.However,in the current IT investment decision theory,real options that embedded in IT projects are not considered. In this paper, the process of IT project decision and implementation is fully analyzed, the real options that may be embedded in an IT project are identified, and a real option analysis (ROA) method is proposed for evaluation of an IT project under uncertain business environment. ROA employs Black-Scholes expansion model and cancels the assumption that the cost of project is certain. The numerical example manifests that the ROA can better evaluate IT project and select the IT investment alternative. Finally, a road map is provided to help selecting the suitable evaluation method to make IT investment decision.展开更多
基金research grants(P0030199 and P0038209)from the Hong Kong Polytechnic University。
文摘In this study,we develop and empirically test a valuation model for a commonly encountered option in office leases:a tenant’s option to renew at future market rent(a fair market value)with lease termination as the maturity date.The model integrates decision analysis with real options analysis and market risk with private risks.“Option value”is defined as the private value of the option to either party pre-contract,while“option price”assumes a fair agreement between transacting parties and can be positive(rental premium paid)or negative(rental discount offered).Without manifest expectations,an analysis of a sample of office leases supports the model’s logic with price estimates in a practical range.The tenants’option price/value is shown to have a negative relationship with the original/renewal lease term;conversely,the landlords’option value is positively related to the original/renewal term.Comparative analyses show that transaction costs have a positive effect on tenants’option value and on prices,while vacancy costs and the vacancy period are both positively related to the landlords’option value and negatively related to price.Market rent is found to have a negative relationship with option price.Overall,this study provides a theoretical analysis and empirical tests of the value of a real option that allows option holders to renew/extend their contracts at a fair market value.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(1 9971 0 72 )
文摘In this paper,the optional and predictable projections of set-valued measurable processes are studied.The existence and uniqueness of optional and predictable projections of set-valued measurable processes are proved under proper circumstances.
基金support of National Science Fund of China(No.71003005 and No.71373002).
文摘Background:We investigated the determination of the pledged loan-to-value ratio in an optionpricing environment and mainly articulated the theoretical framework and analytical method.Methods:The basic idea is that the present value of the pledged loan payoff is equal to a put option’s value.While the interest rate is fixed and the loan is without coupon,we analyzed the pledged loan-to-value ratioin the option pricing perspective and got it that the pledged loan-to-value ratio is decided by term,excessreturn,and the value volatility of the pledge.Next,we extended the same work to coupon loan and portfoliopledge circumstances.For zero coupon and fixed interest rate circumstances,we performed a numericalanalysis.Results:Our results indicate the following:the pledged loan-to-value ratio is a convex decreasing function ofthe term;and the pledged loan-to-value ratio is a concave decreasing function of the value volatility of the pledge;and the pledged loan-to-value ratio is a concave increasing function of the risk premium.For floating interest rate circumstances,we should specify the function form between the loan interest and the risk-free rate.Conclusions:The scientific measurement of the pledged loan-to-value ratio means that simple rules of thumb or the VaR method may lead to mispricing,which could create the possibility of arbitrage.In this way,a new direction for trading derivative products of pledges will be provided.
文摘Based on the value sensitivity of options to underlying and corresponding treaty clauses, this paper poses a measuring method of path dependence intensity, which breaks the setup where the path dependence intensity is only classified roughly and which becomes a deep study on path-dependent options. Then, its feasibility, instructions, and application to compare the path dependence intensity of sorts of options will be discussed.
文摘Solution of the system stochastic differential equations in multi dimensional case using Monte Carlo method had many useful features in compare with the other computational methods. One of them is the solution of boundary value problems to be found at just one point, if required (with associated saving in computation), whereas deterministic methods necessarily find the solution at large number of points simultaneously. This property can be particularly useful in problems such option pricing, where the value of an option is required only at the time of striking, and for the state of the market at that time. In this work we consider a European multi-asset options which mathematically described by the system of stochastic differential equations. We will apply Monte Carlo method for the solution of that system which is the price of Multi-asset rainbow options.
文摘We compare the optimal operating cost of the two bicriterion policies, <p,T> and <p,N>, for an M/G/1 queueing system with second optional service, in which the length of the vacation period is randomly controlled either by the number of arrivals during the idle period or by a timer. After all the customers are served in the queue exhaustively, the server immediately takes a vacation and may operate <p,T> policy or <p,N> policy. For the two bicriterion policies, the total average cost function per unit time is developed to search the optimal stationary operating policies at a minimum cost. Based upon the optimal cost the explicit forms for joint optimum threshold values of (p,T) and (p,N) are obtained.
文摘In this paper, we present a new approach for solving boundary value problem in partial differential equation arising in financial market by means of the Laplace transform. The result shows that the Laplace transform for the price of the European call option which pays dividend yield reduces to the Black-Scholes-Merton model.
文摘Maximum likelihood (ML) estimation for the generalized asymmetric Laplace (GAL) distribution also known as Variance gamma using simplex direct search algorithms is investigated. In this paper, we use numerical direct search techniques for maximizing the log-likelihood to obtain ML estimators instead of using the traditional EM algorithm. The density function of the GAL is only continuous but not differentiable with respect to the parameters and the appearance of the Bessel function in the density make it difficult to obtain the asymptotic covariance matrix for the entire GAL family. Using M-estimation theory, the properties of the ML estimators are investigated in this paper. The ML estimators are shown to be consistent for the GAL family and their asymptotic normality can only be guaranteed for the asymmetric Laplace (AL) family. The asymptotic covariance matrix is obtained for the AL family and it completes the results obtained previously in the literature. For the general GAL model, alternative methods of inferences based on quadratic distances (QD) are proposed. The QD methods appear to be overall more efficient than likelihood methods infinite samples using sample sizes n ≤5000 and the range of parameters often encountered for financial data. The proposed methods only require that the moment generating function of the parametric model exists and has a closed form expression and can be used for other models.
文摘There are many kinds of real options,which are valuable,in each phase of the lifetime of an information technology(IT)project.However,in the current IT investment decision theory,real options that embedded in IT projects are not considered. In this paper, the process of IT project decision and implementation is fully analyzed, the real options that may be embedded in an IT project are identified, and a real option analysis (ROA) method is proposed for evaluation of an IT project under uncertain business environment. ROA employs Black-Scholes expansion model and cancels the assumption that the cost of project is certain. The numerical example manifests that the ROA can better evaluate IT project and select the IT investment alternative. Finally, a road map is provided to help selecting the suitable evaluation method to make IT investment decision.
