Modeling the Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of Local Context for a Contextualized Diffusion of Agroecological Intensification Options in Niger

Spatio-temporal variability and dynamics in Sahelian agro-pastoral zones make each local situation a special case. These specificities must be considered to guide the dissemination of agricultural options with a view to sustainable development. The territorial scale of municipalities is not sufficient for this necessary contextualization;the scale of the “village terroir” seems to be a better option. This is the hypothesis we put forward in the framework of the Global Collaboration for Resilient Food Systems program (CRFS), i.e. local context is spatially defined by village terroir. The study is based on data collected through participatory mapping and surveys in “village terroirs” in three regions of Niger (Maradi, Dosso and Tillabéri). Then the links between farm managers and their cultivated land, as well as the spatio-temporal dynamics of local context are analyzed. This study provides evidence of the existence and functional usefulness of the village terroir for farmers, their land management and their activities. It demonstrates the usefulness of contextualizing agricultural options at this scale. Their analysis elucidates the links between “terroirs village” and the specific functioning of the agrosocio-ecosystems acting on each of them, thus laying the systemic and geographical foundations for a model of the spatio- temporal dynamics of “village terroirs”. This initial work has opened up new perspectives in modeling and sustainable development.

Research on Value Evaluation Method of Investment Project Based on Fuzzy Composite Real Options

Venture capital investments are characterized by high input,high yield,and high risk.Due to the complexity of the market environment,stage-by-stage investment is becoming increasingly important.Traditional evaluation methods like comparison,proportion,maturity,internal rate of return,scenario analysis,decision trees,and net present value cannot fully consider the uncertainty and stage characteristics of the project.The fuzzy real options method addresses this by combining real option theory,fuzzy number theory,and composite option theory to provide a more accurate and objective evaluation of Public-Private Partnership(PPP)projects.It effectively considers the interaction of options and the ambiguity of project parameters,making it a valuable tool for project evaluation in the context of venture capital investment.

Investment Promotion for Development Zones in China:Underlying Rationale and Policy Options

Development zones(DZs)have emerged as a significant policy initiative for promoting regional coordination and facilitating resources allocation.They serve as an organizational framework for fostering industrial agglomeration and driving high-quality development.DZs attract and accommodate resource factors,firms,and projects,thereby functioning as a central catalyst for economic growth.This study utilizes data collected at the“DZ,City and Countrycountry”levels through manual compilation,textual analysis,and innovation measurement.It aims to empirically examine the theoretical rationale and practical preferences for promoting business and investment in China’s DZs.This study considers several factors such as industry attribute,firm attribute,agglomeration theory,and industrial chain layout.Based on our research findings,DZs exhibit distinct preferences.First,industry attribute:DZs align with both national and regional strategic planning and adhere to the industrial endowments of the respective areas.Second,firm attribute:DZs prioritize attracting firms that are productive and innovative,and have an international presence,rather than those that primarily contribute to taxes and job creation.Third,DZs are guided by the agglomeration theory,which suggests that they prefer firms that generate strong agglomeration externalities.Lastly,DZs also consider the industrial chain layout,aiming to attract firms that not only align with their existing industrial strengths but also extend to the upstream and downstream supply chain links.These conclusions are substantiated by the performance of robustness test.The success of DZs in China can be attributed to the five key principles:Adherence to national and regional strategic planning,prioritizing the actual industrial foundation,incorporating the theory of agglomeration externalities,strengthening corporate competitiveness,and expanding industrial chains.

The Contribution Margin due to a Limiting Factor in the Presence of Several Sales Options: Actuality Is Not Always As It Appears at the Beginning of the Analysis

The analysis of company data useful for economic decisions,if not interpreted in an overall view of the company situation,can lead to wrong conclusions.This is the case when a company has to choose between several sales options for one or more products in the presence of a limiting factor.The continuation of the investigation often denies the initial analysis.Not everything is as it appears,therefore,at the beginning of the deepening of the data useful for economic decisions.As it is well known,the choices of profitability concerning the planning of the sale of company products take place,at least in the majority of cases,through the determination of the contribution margin,i.e.the profitability margin connected to the individual goods/services sold by the companies(selling price net of variable costs).The contribution margin can be determined with four objectives:(1)Determination of the yield of the single product,net of variable costs only.In this case,the margin defines unitary,from net product yield to unitary contribution margin.(2)Determination of the return on total sales of an individual product,net of variable costs.In this hypothesis,reference is made to the first level(or gross)contribution margin.(3)Determination of the ability of the individual product to contribute to the coverage of fixed costs common to the company.This margin is determined net of special product variable and fixed costs.This aggregate is defined as a Level II(or semi-gross)margin.(4)Determination of the useful value in the planning choices in case of presence of scarce productive factors.In this case,it must identify the so-called unitary margin for low factor.Here we will only deal with the problem of the use of the contribution margin in the presence of rare factors.To complete the analysis,below are some very brief considerations regarding,respectively,the unitary,level I,and level II contribution margin in order to better understand where the problem of the most convenient choice of income is located in the event of the presence of rare production factors,especially in an environment characterized by a plurality of sales options.

Upside and downside correlated jump risk premia of currency options and expected returns

This research explores upside and downside jumps in the dynamic processes of three rates:domestic interest rates,foreign interest rates,and exchange rates.To fill the gap between the asymmetric jump in the currency market and the current models,a correlated asymmetric jump model is proposed to capture the co-movement of the correlated jump risks for the three rates and identify the correlated jump risk premia.The likelihood ratio test results show that the new model performs best in 1-,3-,6-,and 12-month maturities.The in-and out-of-sample test results indicate that the new model can capture more risk factors with relatively small pricing errors.Finally,the risk factors captured by the new model can explain the exchange rate fluctuations for various economic events.

Decarbonization options of the iron and steelmaking industry based on a three-dimensional analysis

Decarbonization is a critical issue for peaking CO_(2) emissions of energy-intensive industries,such as the iron and steel industry.The decarbonization options of China’s ironmaking and steelmaking sector were discussed based on a systematic three-dimensional low-carbon analysis from the aspects of resource utilization(Y),energy utilization(Q),and energy cleanliness which is evaluated by a process general emission factor(PGEF)on all the related processes,including the current blast furnace(BF)-basic oxygen furnace(BOF)integrated process and the specific sub-processes,as well as the electric arc furnace(EAF)process,typical direct reduction(DR)process,and smelting reduction(SR)process.The study indicates that the three-dimensional aspects,particularly the energy structure,should be comprehensively considered to quantitatively evaluate the decarbonization road map based on novel technologies or processes.Promoting scrap utilization(improvement of Y)and the substitution of carbon-based energy(improvement of PGEF)in particular is critical.In terms of process scale,promoting the development of the scrap-based EAF or DR-EAF process is highly encouraged because of their lower PGEF.The three-dimensional method is expected to extend to other processes or industries,such as the cement production and thermal electricity generation industries.

A novel stochastic modeling framework for coal production and logistics through options pricing analysis

We propose a novel stochastic modeling framework for coal production and logistics using option pricing theory.The problem of valuing the inherent real optionality a coal producer has when mining and processing thermal coal is modelled as pricing spread options of three assets under the stochastic volatility model.We derive a three-dimensional Fast Fourier Transform(“FFT”)lower bound approximation to value the inherent real optionality and for robustness check,we compare the semi-analytical pricing accuracy with the Monte Carlo simulation.Model parameters are estimated from the historical monthly data,and stochastic volatility parameters are obtained by matching the Kurtosis of the low-ash diff data to the Kurtosis of the stochastic volatility process which is assumed to follow Cox–Ingersoll–Ross(“CIR”)model.

Valuing options to renew at future market value:the case of commercial property leases

In this study,we develop and empirically test a valuation model for a commonly encountered option in office leases:a tenant’s option to renew at future market rent(a fair market value)with lease termination as the maturity date.The model integrates decision analysis with real options analysis and market risk with private risks.“Option value”is defined as the private value of the option to either party pre-contract,while“option price”assumes a fair agreement between transacting parties and can be positive(rental premium paid)or negative(rental discount offered).Without manifest expectations,an analysis of a sample of office leases supports the model’s logic with price estimates in a practical range.The tenants’option price/value is shown to have a negative relationship with the original/renewal lease term;conversely,the landlords’option value is positively related to the original/renewal term.Comparative analyses show that transaction costs have a positive effect on tenants’option value and on prices,while vacancy costs and the vacancy period are both positively related to the landlords’option value and negatively related to price.Market rent is found to have a negative relationship with option price.Overall,this study provides a theoretical analysis and empirical tests of the value of a real option that allows option holders to renew/extend their contracts at a fair market value.

Pricing European Options Based on a Logarithmic Truncated t-Distribution

The t-distribution has a “fat tail” feature, which is more suitable than the normal probability density function to describe the distribution characteristics of return on assets. The difficulty of using t-distribution to price European options is that a fat tail can lead to a deviation in one integral required for option pricing. We use a distribution called logarithmic truncated t-distribution to price European options. A risk neutral valuation method was used to obtain a European option pricing model with logarithmic truncated t-distribution.

基于并发Options的双边多议题协商模型优化

针对双边多议题协商中的僵局问题,提出利用并发Options优化协商模型的方法.这种方法可在不降低双边协商效用的前提下,并行动态优化与僵局议题相关的多个议题的保留值.电子商务的实验结果表明:基于并发Options的协商模型优化方法是有效的;无论是学习速度,还是最佳策略的优化程度和泛化能力,该方法均明显优于基于标准Options和Q-学习的优化方法.

一种融合Options与蚁群算法的虚拟机自适应配置方法

为了提高云环境的可靠性,对虚拟资源的管理是一个关键.针对虚拟机的自适应配置问题,提出一种分层强化学习Options和蚁群优化算法融合的方法 A-HRL.该方法记录蚂蚁遍历过程中留下的信息素,利用信息素变化率引入粗糙度概念,并根据粗糙度阈值创建子目标实现任务分层.将A-HRL算法应用于虚拟机自适应配置中,通过创建任务组和虚拟机可用性评估表监督每个任务的进度与质量,最大限度地提高每个应用的性能.实验结果表明,A-HRL算法比传统的强化学习算法性能更优.

On the Options of EFL Methodological Approaches

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Evaluation of Double Average Asian Options by the Legendre Spectral Method

In this paper, the evaluation of discretely sampled Asian options was considered by numerically solving the associated partial differential equations with the Legendre spectral method. Double average options were discussed as examples. The problem is a parabolic one on a finite domain whose equation degenerates into ordinary differential equations on the boundaries. A fully discrete scheme was established by using the Legendre spectral method in space and the Crank-Nicolson finite difference scheme in time. The stability and convergence of the scheme were analyzed. Numerical results show that the method can keep the spectral accuracy in space for such degenerate problems.

Treatment options for alcoholic and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease: A review

Alcoholic liver disease(ALD)and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease(NAFLD)are serious health problems worldwide.These two diseases have similar pathological spectra,ranging from simple steatosis to hepatitis to cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma.Although most people with excessive alcohol or calorie intake display abnormal fat accumulation in the liver(simple steatosis),a small percentage develops progressive liver disease.Despite extensive research on understanding the pathophysiology of both these diseases there are still no targeted therapies available.The treatment for ALD remains as it was 50 years ago:abstinence,nutritional support and corticosteroids(or pentoxifylline as an alternative if steroids are contraindicated).As for NAFLD,the treatment modality is mainly directed toward weight loss and co-morbidity management.Therefore,new pathophysiology directed therapies are urgently needed.However,the involvement of several inter-related pathways in the pathogenesis of these diseases suggests that a single therapeutic agent is unlikely to be an effective treatment strategy.Hence,a combination therapy towards multiple targets would eventually be required.In this review,we delineate the treatment options in ALD and NAFLD,including various new targeted therapies that are currently under investigation.We hope that soon we will be having an effective multi-therapeutic regimen for each disease.

Mitigation Options for Methane, Nitrous Oxide and NitricOxide Emissions from Agricultural Ecosystems

An experimental study on mitigation of greenhouse gas (CH4, N2O and NO) emission has been conducted in a typical cropping system of Southeast China for 4 years. By simultaneous measurement, the CH4, N2O and NO emission fluxes from rice-wheat rotation fields, effects of fertilization, water management, temperature and soil moisture were investigated. Temperature, fertilization and water status were found to be the key factors to regulate CH4, N2O and NO emis-sions. Based on the experimental results, some agricultural measures were recommended as techni-cal options to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions from rice-wheat rotation ecosystems. These miti-gation measures are reducing mineral N input, coupling organic manure with chemical fertilizers, applying fertilizers which release available N slowly during periods with intensive plant activity, and applying dry fermented organic manure and well management of water and fertilizer. Key words Mitigation options - Emission - Greenhouse gases - Ecosystems This study was supported by projects “ Experimental and Modeling Study on N2O Emission from the Rice-Wheat Rotation Fields of Southeast China” and “ Experimental and Modeling Study on NO Emission from Croplands” , which were granted by the National Natural Science Foundation of China, the State Key Fundamental Research Project “ Predicting the Future (20–50 years) Trend of Environmental Change in China”, and the project of Chinese Academy of Sciences “ Theory and Methodology on Air Pollution Prediction”.Thanks are due to Professor Zhang Wen, Dr. Bai Jianhui, Mr. Gong Yanbang, Mrs. Luo Dongmei and Mr. Liu Guangren from the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences for their help in experiments.

New therapeutic options for persistent low-level viremia in patients with chronic hepatitis B virus infection:Increase of entecavir dosage

Chronic hepatitis B virus(HBV)infection(CHB)is a public health concern worldwide.Current therapies utilizing nucleos(t)ide analogs(NA)have not resulted in a complete cure for CHB.Furthermore,patients on long-term NA treatment often develop low-level viremia(LLV).Persistent LLV,in addition to causing the progression of liver disease or hepatocellular carcinoma,may shed light on the current plight of NA therapy.Here,we review the literature on LLV,NA treatment,and various doses of entecavir to find a strategy for improving the efficacy of this antiviral agent.For LLV patients,three therapeutic options are available,switching to another antiviral monotherapy,interferon-αswitching therapy,and continuing monotherapy.In real-world clinical practice,entecavir overdose has been used in antiviral therapy for CHB patients with NA refractory and persistent LLV,which encouraged us to conduct further in-depth literature survey on dosage and duration related entecavir studies.The studies of pharmacodynamics and pharmacokinetics show that entecavir has the maximal selected index for safety,and has great potential in inhibiting HBV replication,in all of the NAs.In the particular section of the drug approval package published by the United States Food and Drug Administration,entecavir doses 2.5-20 mg/d do not increase adverse events,and entecavir doses higher than 1.0 mg/d might improve the antiviral efficacy.The literature survey led us to two suggestions:(1)Increasing entecavir dose to 1.0 mg/d for the treatment of NA naïve patients with HBV DNA>2×106 IU/mL is feasible and would provide better prognosis;and(2)Further research is needed to assess the long-term toxic effects of higher entecavir doses(2.5 and 5.0 mg/d),which may prove beneficial in treating patients with prior NA treatment,partial virological response,or LLV state.

Technological Options to Ameliorate Waste Treatment of Intensive Pig Production in China:An Analysis Based on Bio-Economic Model

Ameliorating waste treatment by technological improvements affects the economic and the ecological-environment benefits of intensive pig production. The objective of the research was to develop and test a method to determine the technical optimization to ameliorate waste treatment methods and gain insight into the relationship between technological options and the economic and ecological effects. We developed an integrated bio-economic model which incorporates the farming production and waste disposal systems to simulate the impact of technological improvements in pig manure treatment on economic and environmental benefits for the case of a pilot farm in Beijing, China. Based on different waste treatment technology options, three scenarios are applied for the simulation analysis of the model. The simulation results reveal that the economic-environmental benefits of the livestock farm could be improved by reducing the cropland manure application and increasing the composting production with the current technologies. Nevertheless, the technical efficiency, the waste treatment capacity and the economic benefits could be further improved by the introduction of new technologies. It implies that technological and economic support policies should be implemented comprehensively on waste disposal and resource utilization to promote sustainable development in intensive livestock production in China.

Economic evaluation of agricultural pollution control options for China

Environmental sustainability has become a policy priority in China. In agriculture, China has had major success in rehabilitating desertified lands through programs to convert steeply-sloped cropland to forest and limit grazing on sensitive grasslands. However, little has been done in terms of policies for agricultural nutrient management. Runoff and leaching of nutrients in chemical fertilizers and livestock manure are widely acknowledged as significant problems in China. This paper presents an evaluation of agricultural nonpoint pollution control options for China. Options analyzed include design standards（command ＆ control）, performance standards, and design and performance incentives. Evaluation criteria include economic efficiency and effectiveness, environmental impact and risk, and social criteria such as equity and food security. The evaluation indicates that the best options for China involve subsidies to farmers for changing production practices in order to reduce nonpoint emissions, combined with appropriate farmer education and technical assistance.

Franchise ownership redirection:real options perspective

Background:For over 40 years,the franchise ownership redirection hypothesis has attracted the attention of many scholars.This study,differing from previous ones,proposes an alternative approach for this hypothesis using a real options framework with the extension of agency theory.Method:The real options model is built using the least square Monte Carlo method,where the franchisor’s decision to franchise is perceived as a deferred investment while maintaining the right of future acquisition.Result:Tested using monte carlo simulation based hypothetical case,the model shows a different result from classical real options call model.This is mainly due to franchise contractual arrangement,where royalty fee lower the threshold of acquisition cost in converting the franchise outlet to company owned.Conclusion:The aim of this study is to create an analytical framework that helps a franchisor decide whether or not toacquire and convert a franchise unit to a company-owned unit at a certain point in time,analyzing the choice as a deferment of investment.The franchisors that faces the opportunity to optimize profit by converting the franchise unit to a company-owned unit should acknowledge it as real options thus negotiate the terms with their franchisees.

Investment in deepwater oil and gas exploration projects:a multi-factor analysis with a real options model

Deepwater oil and gas projects embody high risks from geology and engineering aspects, which exert substantial influence on project valuation. But the uncer- tainties may be converted to additional value to the projects in the case of flexible management. Given the flexibility of project management, this paper extends the classical real options model to a multi-factor model which contains oil price, geology, and engineering uncertainties. It then gives an application example of the new model to evaluate deepwater oil and gas projects with a numerical analytical method. Compared with other methods and models, this multi-factor real options model contains more project information. It reflects the potential value deriving not only from oil price variation but also from geology and engi- neering uncertainties, which provides more accurate and reliable valuation information for decision makers.