This paper investigates the ordering decision problem for a short-life-cycle product under Bayesian updating. For a product characterized by a single manufacturing cycle and two selling periods, we depict a Two-Stage ...This paper investigates the ordering decision problem for a short-life-cycle product under Bayesian updating. For a product characterized by a single manufacturing cycle and two selling periods, we depict a Two-Stage （TS） ordering strategy with a stochastic dynamic programming model in the view of the whole system, and prove that the expected profit function of the whole system is concave on the first ordering quantity and the remedial ordering quantity, respectively. Then, the optimal ordering decision is developed. Finally, characteristics of the optimal ordering quantities are analyzed with several examples. Our results show that the suggested TS decision model is better than a Quick Response （QR） decision model.展开更多
基金This work was supported in part by Natioanl Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No.70321001 Nature Science Foundation of Henan Province Education Committee under Grant No.2006120004 Natural Science Foundation for PhD of Henan Agricultural University under Grant No.30700300
文摘This paper investigates the ordering decision problem for a short-life-cycle product under Bayesian updating. For a product characterized by a single manufacturing cycle and two selling periods, we depict a Two-Stage （TS） ordering strategy with a stochastic dynamic programming model in the view of the whole system, and prove that the expected profit function of the whole system is concave on the first ordering quantity and the remedial ordering quantity, respectively. Then, the optimal ordering decision is developed. Finally, characteristics of the optimal ordering quantities are analyzed with several examples. Our results show that the suggested TS decision model is better than a Quick Response （QR） decision model.
