Applying an Ordinal Priority Approach Based Neutrosophic Fuzzy Axiomatic Design Approach to Develop Sustainable Geothermal Energy Source

Geothermal energy is considered a renewable,environmentally friendly,especially carbon-free,sustainable energy source that can solve the problem of climate change.In general,countries with geothermal energy resources are the ones going through the ring of fire.Therefore,not every country is lucky enough to own this resource.As a country with 117 active volcanoes and within the world’s ring of fire,it is a country whose geothermal resources are estimated to be about 40%of the world’s geothermal energy potential.However,the percentage used compared to the geothermal potential is too small.Therefore,this is the main energy source that Indonesia is aiming to exploit and use.However,the deployment and development of this energy source are still facing many obstacles due to many aspects from budget sources due to high capital costs,factory construction location,quality of resources,and conflicts of the local community.In this context,determining the optimal locations for geothermal energy sites(GES)is one of the most important and necessary issues.To strengthen the selection methods,this study applies a two-layer fuzzy multi-criteria decision-making method.Through the layers,the Ordinal Priority Approach(OPA)is proposed to weight the sub-criteria,the main criterion,and the sustainability factors.In layer 2,the Neutrosophic Fuzzy Axiomatic Design(NFAD)is applied to rank and evaluate potential locations for geothermal plant construction.Choosing the right geothermal energy site can bring low-cost efficiency,no greenhouse gas emissions,and quickly become the main energy source providing electricity for Indonesia.The final ranking shows Papua,Kawah Cibuni,and Moluccas as the three most suitable cities to build geothermal energy systems.Kawah Cibuni was identified as the most potential GES in Indonesia,with a score of 0.46.Papua is the second most promising GES with a score of 0.45.Next is the Moluccas,with a score of 0.39.However,the three least potential sites among the 15 studied sites are Lumut Balai,Moluccas and Patuha,with scores of 0.08,0.11 and 0.17,respectively.The conclusion of this study also classifies positions into groups to aid in decision-making.

The Absence of “Perfect Induction”in the Science

The present paper is finalized to show that the Science, even if considered in its two different Phenomenological Approaches at present known, is unable to assert that: “Thinks are like that”. This is because both the two Scientific Approaches previously mentioned have not the property of “the perfect induction”. Consequently, although they can even reach an experimental confirmation of the theoretical results, and thus a “valid description” of the various phenomena of the surrounding world, such a description has not an “absolute value”. In fact, it always and only has an “operative validity”, that is, it exclusively and solely refers to an “experimental point of view”. This means that such an “operative validity” cannot represent the basis for a logical process characterized by a “perfect induction”. In addition, the Traditional Scientific Approach is also characterized by “Insoluble” Problems, “Intractable Problems”, Problems with “drifts”, which could generally be termed as “side effects”. On the other hand, the same com-possible Scientific Approach based on the Emerging Quality of Self-Organizing Systems, also presents its “Emerging Exits”. Consequently, none of the two mentioned scientific Approaches has the “gift” of “the perfect induction”. However, there are significant differences between the two. Differences that may “suggest” the most appropriate choice among them for an “operative point of view”. This conclusion will be com-proved by considering, with particular reference, both the “side effects”, which are related to the Traditional Approach and, on the other hand, the “Emerging Exits”, which specifically pertain to the new Scientific Approach based on the Emerging Quality of Self-Organizing Systems.

The Accelerated Expansion of the Universe in the Light of the Maximum Ordinality Principle

The main aim of the paper is to present (and at the same time offer) a differ-ent perspective for the analysis of the accelerated expansion of the Universe. A perspective that can surely be considered as being “in parallel” to the tradition-al ones, such as those based, for example, on the hypotheses of “Dark Matter” and “Dark Energy”, or better as a “com-possible” perspective, because it is not understood as being “exclusive”. In fact, it is an approach that, when con-firmed by experimental results, always keeps its validity from an “operative” point of view. This is because, in analogy to the traditional perspectives, on the basis of Popper’s Falsification Principle the corresponding “Generative” Logic on which it is based has not the property of the perfect induction. The basic difference then only consists in the fact that the Evolution of the Universe is now modeled by considering the Universe as a Self-Organizing System, which is thus analyzed in the light of the Maximum Ordinality Principle.

农民工城市融合路径及影响因素研究——基于三阶段Ordinal Logit模型的实证

本文依据浙江省农民工城市融合的调查数据,构建三阶段Ordinal Logit模型实证分析了农民工城市融合路径及影响因素。结果表明,农民工城市融合经历经济生存融合、社会交往融合和心理认同三阶段发展路径,经济生存融合由强到弱受职业资格、就业公平、婚姻状况、初始社会资本和居住条件的影响;社会交往融合由强到弱受居住格局、经济生存融合、经济生存状态的未来期许和上网时间的影响;心理认同由强到弱受社会交往融合、长期居留意愿和乡土记忆的影响。整合分析表明,经济生存融合极大制约了农民工城市融合的纵向提升,当前农民工城市融合仍停留在经济生存融合阶段。促进农民工城市融合的政策建议应着重考虑以上因素。

基于Ordinal Logistic模型的事故严重性影响因素分析——以翻车事故为例

为准确分析影响交通事故严重性的各项因素,引入Ordinal Logistic模型研究驾驶员、车辆、环境因素对事故严重程度的影响,利用统计学方法对模型进行显著性检验。并使用该模型对北卡罗来纳州2010—2014年385个翻车事故样本进行严重性影响因素分析,所得回归模型符合平行线检验(=0.115 1)和似然比检验(≤0.000 1)。通过模型分析得出变量"安全带"(≤0.000 1)、"路面状况"(=0.013 6)、"道路线形"(=0.005 7)对翻车事故的严重性具有显著影响,研究结果表明:Ordinal Logistic模型适合于分析与揭示影响交通事故严重性的各个因素。

Characteristics,classification and ordination of riparian plant communities in the Three-Gorges areas

Sixteen different vegetation types of grassland and shrubland were selected to study the component and diversity of plant species of riparian plant communities along main channel in the Three-Gorges areas. Species richness (s), Simpson index (D), and Shannon-Weiner index (H) were used to study the biodiversity and the hierarchical classification was carried out by the methods of TWINSPAN and DCA ordination. The results showed that the components of flora were complex and dominated by the temperate type in the riparian plant communities. Species diversity was not different between the communities, but Shannon-Weiner indexes of different layers in some grassland were significantly different. TWINSPAN and DCA indicated that riparian plant communities distributed along the gradient of moisture.

基于有序Logit与Probit模型的交通事故严重性影响因素分析

为准确分析影响交通事故严重性的各项因素,引入有序选择模型中的Ordinal Logit模型和Ordinal Probit模型,研究驾驶员、车辆、环境、管理因素与事故严重程度之间的耦合关系,利用计量经济学理论和统计学方法对模型进行显著性检验。并选择美国北卡罗来纳州2010年至2014年385个翻车事故样本进行严重性影响因素分析,所得回归模型参数估计均符合Wald检验（p≤0.0001）和似然比检验（p≤0.0001）,模型的拟合度也都符合Pearson检验（p=0.7976）、偏差检验（p=0.6006）和信息准则检验,模型预测精度指标值均大于0.7。所得两个模型中变量＂安全带＂（p≤0.001）、＂路面状况＂（p=0.0071）、＂道路线形＂（p=0.0077）、＂路面类型＂（p=0.0251）都对翻车事故的严重性具有显著影响,表明有序Logit模型和有序Probit模型均适用于分析和揭示影响交通事故严重性的各个因素。

农村学校撤并对学生上学距离的影响——基于GIS和Ordinal Logit模型的分析

农村义务教育学校布局调整是以撤并小规模学校为主要手段,旨在促进教育资源均衡配置的一项重大教育政策。通过广东省某山区县2003—2009年的学校布局规划数据,从物理距离、时间距离和文化距离的分类视角,运用GIS技术和Ordinal Logit模型分析农村学校撤并对学生上学距离产生的直接影响。研究结果表明:撤并农村学校导致学生上学的物理距离和时间距离增加,偏远学生上学难问题凸显;对学生的文化距离同样产生显著的负面影响。在未来学校布局调整的进程中,县域教育决策者应将关注点从一味追求规模效益转移到教育公平和教育质量上来。要保证农村学生就近入学,设定上学距离的限制;促进学校间教育资源的均衡配置,保证所有学生享受同等质量的教育资源;采用科学的规划程序完善布局调整政策的实施。

粮农综合补贴对农户种粮积极性的影响分析——以内蒙古太仆寺旗种植业农户为例

为了验证粮农综合补贴政策能否影响农户生产积极性,进而影响粮食生产。本文对内蒙古太仆寺旗从事种植业生产的农户进行了问卷调查,选取在维持目前粮农综合补贴标准和发放方式不变的情况下,农户对3年后种植粮食作物表达出的意愿和态度这一微观视角进行研究。Ordinal回归模型拟合结果及相关统计分析表明,由于补贴占收入比重较小,以种粮为主农户的收入远低于外出打工和兼业农户的收入水平,因此,补贴对未来农户种粮积极性的增加没有起到激励作用,反而是目前获得补贴较高的被调研农户,未来不愿意种粮的倾向性更高,长期发展我国种粮的有效劳动力可能更加缺乏。为此,本文提出在稳定现有补贴政策的基础上,鼓励规模化种粮,提高种粮农户的收益,以及在WTO规则允许范围内实施与粮食播种面积挂钩的补贴并提高补贴标准,进而提高农户生产积极性的政策建议。

基层农技人员对农业科技入户工程的价值认同及其影响因素分析

基层农技人员对农业科技入户工程的价值认同是影响农业技术推广效率的关键因素。调查湖北省378位基层农技人员对农业科技入户工程的价值认同情况,并用Ordinal模型对影响其价值认同的因素进行实证分析。研究结果表明:第一,基层农技人员对农业科技入户工程的价值认同程度不高;第二,文化程度、月收入、地方政府对农业推广的重视程度、对科技政策的了解程度等变量是影响基层农技人员对农业科技入户认同程度的关键因素。

个体特征、补偿机制与农民对新农合的满意度

文章基于2012年对新疆726位农民的调查数据,利用Ordinal Logistic回归模型,实证分析个体特征、补偿机制与农民对新农合满意度的影响。结果表明:农民对新农合的满意度比较高;补偿机制总体合理性及其五个方面的合理性,显著影响农民对新农合的满意度;年龄越大、政治面貌为党(团)员、少数民族的农民,对新农合的满意度更高。农民对新农合的满意度主要取决于农民的受益水平,同时也受到新农合缴费标准合理性、服务和监督管理水平的影响。提高农民对新农合的满意度,首先要适当提高新农合补偿比例,适度扩大新农合补偿范围,合理确定农民缴费标准;同时,要简化新农合补偿手续,提高补偿的便利性,加强监督管理,促进补偿的公平性。

围绝经期妇女的绝经症状及其影响因素调查分析

[目的]探讨围绝经期妇女的围绝经期症状及影响因素。[方法]采用一般情况调查表和绝经症状评定量表对417名围绝经期妇女进行调查。[结果]围绝经期症状发生率为80.6%。影响围绝经期症状的主要因素是家庭关系、身高缩短情况、有无慢性病史、睡眠、绝经状态、性生活、饮酒史。[结论]围绝经期妇女绝经症状发生率较为普遍、广泛,影响因素众多,建议健康保健人员根据个人情况采取适宜的干预措施,从而改善其围绝经期症状状况。

甲状腺良、恶性结节发病的影响因素及其Ordinal回归分析

目的了解不同人群中甲状腺良、恶性结节的发病情况及其影响因素。方法采取分阶段整群随机抽样方法,选取在某医院进行体检的人群进行一般情况及甲状腺疾病发生影响因素的问卷调查,数据资料采用Wilcoxon秩和检验和Kruskal-Wallis H检验,并进行Ordinal回归分析。结果共调查8 090名体检者,有效问卷8 039份,有效率99.37%。甲状腺正常者2 912名,占36.2%,结节性甲状腺肿、其他甲状腺良性疾病和甲状腺癌分别为2 470,1 539和1 118例,各占30.7%、19.1%和13.9%。单因素分析显示,工作单位、生存环境、从事职业、饮食习惯、电磁辐射、尾气尘埃等对体检人群发生甲状腺良、恶性结节的影响差异有统计学意义(P<0.05)。Ordinal回归分析显示,从事电化企业、银行工作、厨卫保洁的人群甲状腺疾病发生的概率分别是医药卫生系统的8.53倍(OR=8.53,95%CI:7.02~9.89)、1.69倍(OR=1.69,95%CI:1.26~1.94)和7.29倍(OR=7.29,95%CI:5.81~9.03)。与普通街区比较,生活或工作在干道工地旁、电器高压线旁和新近装修、尾气油烟尘埃之中为发生甲状腺疾病的危险因素。接触手机、电脑等电磁辐射越多,以及碘、钙、氟的过度摄入,甲状腺疾病发生的概率越高。结论甲状腺良、恶性结节发病的风险因素有手机、电脑、微波、电器等电磁辐射,建筑尘埃、雾霾、装修以及油烟尾气等;保护性因素则是花园式绿色环境。

基本医保城乡统筹新政实施状况研究——基于北京市居民政策知晓度与满意度的实证分析

本文基于"北京市城乡居民基本医保制度一体化理论与实证研究"重大项目调查数据,通过对2017年、2018年居民政策知晓率、满意度差异性检验、因子分析与Ordinal回归分析,对比北京市城乡居民对"实施整合城乡居民基本医保"新政的反映(知晓率、满意度)及其影响因素,发现:北京市城乡居民医保整合后满意度总体水平略微低于整合前,报销程序、定点医疗机构(可及性、服务质量与态度)和报销比例是影响居民医保满意度的主要因子;其中,报销地点远近程度、报销程序规定了解程度、定点医疗机构满意度、缴费额度规定了解程度、缴费额度满意度、门诊报销比例满意度、报销比例规定了解程度、继续参加现参医保制度意愿是基本医保满意度外部因素中的共性因素。本文研究揭示了城乡居民对医保新政的实际需求有共性(需要政府作为全局规划时重点考虑的因素),但也呈现多样化和差异化(应该作为政府因地制宜制定政策时所需要权衡的因素),对北京市乃至全国建立健全城乡统筹医保提供了实证资料、科学依据和政策参考。

农村社会保障满意度及其影响因素分析--基于辽宁省沈阳市沈北新区306户农民家庭的调查

本文基于2012年辽宁省沈北新区306户农民家庭的问卷调查,利用Ordinal Logistic回归模型,实证分析农民对社会保障的满意度及其影响因素问题。结果表明:农民对农村社会保障的满意度偏低;年龄越小、健康状况越差的农民对农村社会保障满意度越高;新农保基础养老金保障水平越高、新农保个人账户缴费负担越轻及没有参加新农合的农民对农村社会保障满意度越高。在此基础上,本文提出了提高农民对农村社会保障的满意度的相关政策建议:建立新农保基础养老金指数化调整机制、重视和发现新农合运行中的突出问题、加大对新农保个人账户的宣传力度等。

农民工群体内部工资收入差距实证研究——基于CGSS2013的调查数据

农民工收入差距问题备受关注,但目前对农民工群体内部工资收入差距的研究涉及较少。本文基于CGSS2013的数据,依次采用分位数回归、Ordinal Logistic模型和泰尔指数分解等方法聚焦分析了农民工群体内部工资收入差距的影响因素,以及不同工资收入组别之间的相对差异,并进一步分析了影响组间差距和组内差距的具体因素。结果表明:男性、大专及以上学历、签订劳动合同、私营雇主性质和东部地区就业这些因素主要影响农民工群体内部工资收入的组间差距,而已婚、非农工作年限、全职工作、外资合资雇主性质这些因素则主要影响组内差距,其中男性、大专及以上学历、全职工作、私营雇主性质这些变量发挥着较强的作用。

非农就业经历、风险偏好与新型职业农民生产技术采纳

基于2019—2020年粤赣两省1040份新型职业农民混合截面数据,运用Ordinal Probit模型,在理论分析的基础上,实证检验非农就业经历、风险偏好对新型职业农民生产技术采纳行为的影响。实证结果表明:非农就业经历、风险偏好均会正向促进新型职业农民生产技术采纳。通过进一步的实证检验可以发现,非农就业经历对新型职业农民生产技术采纳行为存在异质性影响,其中务工经历对农民生产技术采纳的促进作用更强。从作用机制来看,非农就业经历通过强化新型职业农民的风险偏好,对其生产技术采纳行为产生影响。为此,应充分考虑具有不同非农就业经历和风险偏好的新型职业农民的差异化技术需求,提供具有针对性的技术扶持,进一步完善农业技术采纳风险分担机制,并充分发挥规模农户在生产技术采纳中的示范引领作用。

中国女性流动人口主观幸福感研究——基于对中国流动人口动态监测调查数据的分析

本文根据原国家计生委2012年中国流动人口动态监测调查数据,描述分析了我国女性流动人口的幸福感状况,并采用有序因变量模型分析了各影响因素对主观幸福感的影响程度。结果表明:目前中国女性流动人口主观幸福感较高;经济因素对主观幸福感有显著影响,其中,女性流动人口的绝对收入对主观幸福感有显著的正影响,相对收入弱化了绝对收入对主观幸福感的影响;非经济因素对主观幸福感也有显著影响,其中婚姻状况、工作因素、住房状况、闲暇生活、政治权利等因素有正影响,受教育程度与主观幸福感则呈现出负相关关系。

The Construction of Mistake-tolerant Democracy Based on the Practical Right ＂Right to Trial and Error＂

The law ＂Trial and Error Ordinance＂ enacted in 2006 and spreading throughout China especially since 2016 is the best starting point for China＇s democratization, because Chinese government officials cannot be confronted with their new challenges directly without the right to trial and error. This study has tried to build a new democratic theory, mistake-tolerant democracy based on the right to trial and error with Chinese characteristics and Western value to guide Chinese democratized way. The right theory of mistake-tolerant democracy is the new right paradigm, ＂the right to trial and error as an original right and mutual empowerment theory＂ proposed by the combination of the state of nature and the scientific method of trial and error rather than natural right theory and social contract theory. Mistake-tolerant democracy emphasizes that the people have the equal right to trial and error as an original right, and the officials＇ right to trial and error are granted ＂from the people and should empower the corresponding rights to them, which is the meaning of mutual empowerment theory.