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The transmission mechanism theory of disease dynamics:Its aims,assumptions and limitations
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作者 Winston Garira Bothwell Maregere 《Infectious Disease Modelling》 CSCD 2023年第1期122-144,共23页
Most of the progress in the development of single scale mathematical and computational models for the study of infectious disease dynamics which now span over a century is build on a body of knowledge that has been de... Most of the progress in the development of single scale mathematical and computational models for the study of infectious disease dynamics which now span over a century is build on a body of knowledge that has been developed to address particular single scale descriptions of infectious disease dynamics based on understanding disease transmission process.Although this single scale understanding of infectious disease dynamics is now founded on a body of knowledge with a long history,dating back to over a century now,that knowledge has not yet been formalized into a scientific theory.In this article,we formalize this accumulated body of knowledge into a scientific theory called the transmission mechanism theory of disease dynamics which states that at every scale of organization of an infectious disease system,disease dynamics is determined by transmission as the main dynamic disease process.Therefore,the transmission mechanism theory of disease dynamics can be seen as formalizing knowledge that has been inherent in the study of infectious disease dynamics using single scale mathematical and computational models for over a century now.The objective of this article is to summarize this existing knowledge about single scale modelling of infectious dynamics by means of a scientific theory called the transmission mechanism theory of disease dynamics and highlight its aims,assumptions and limitations. 展开更多
关键词 Single scale modelling of infectious disease dynamics Multiscale modelling of infectious disease dynamics scales of organization of infectious disease system Transmission mechanism theory of disease dynamics Levels of organization of infectious disease system The replication-transmission relativity theory of disease dynamics
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