Differences in Precipitation and Related Wind Dynamics and Moisture and Heat Features in Separate Areas of the South China Sea before and after Summer Monsoon Onset

Using surface and balloon-sounding measurements, satellite retrievals, and ERA5 reanalysis during 2011–20, this study compares the precipitation and related wind dynamics, moisture and heat features in different areas of the South China Sea(SCS) before and after SCS summer monsoon onset(SCSSMO). The rainy sea around Dongsha(hereafter simply referred to as Dongsha) near the north coast, and the rainless sea around Xisha(hereafter simply referred to as Xisha) in the western SCS, are selected as two typical research subregions. It is found that Dongsha, rather than Xisha, has an earlier and greater increase in precipitation after SCSSMO under the combined effect of strong low-level southwesterly winds, coastal terrain blocking and lifting, and northern cold air. When the 950-h Pa southwesterly winds enhance and advance northward, accompanied by strengthened moisture flux, there is a strong convergence of wind and moisture in Dongsha due to a sudden deceleration and rear-end collision of wind by coastal terrain blocking. Moist and warm advection over Dongsha enhances early and deepens up to 200 h Pa in association with the strengthened upward motion after SCSSMO, thereby providing ample moisture and heat to form strong precipitation. However, when the 950-h Pa southwesterly winds weaken and retreat southward, Xisha is located in a wind-break area where strong convergence and upward motion centers move in. The vertical moistening and heating by advection in Xisha enhance later and appear far weaker compared to that in Dongsha, consistent with later and weaker precipitation.

Influences of MJO-induced Tropical Cyclones on the Circulation-Convection Inconsistency for the 2021 South China Sea Summer Monsoon Onset

The South China Sea Summer Monsoon(SCSSM)onset is characterized by an apparent seasonal conversion of circulation and convection.Accordingly,various indices have been introduced to identify the SCSSM onset date.However,the onset dates as determined by various indices can be very inconsistent.It not only limits the determination of onset dates but also misleads the assessment of prediction skills.In 2021,the onset time as identified by the circulation criteria was 20 May,which is 12 days earlier than that deduced by also considering the convection criteria.The present study mainly ascribes such circulation-convection inconsistency to the activities of tropical cyclones(TCs)modulated by the Madden-Julian Oscillation(MJO).The convection of TC“Yaas”(2021)acted as an upper-level diabatic heat source to the north of the SCS,facilitating the circulation transition.Afterward,TC“Choi-wan”(2021)over the western Pacific aided the westerlies to persist at lower levels while simultaneously suppressing moist convection over the SCS.Accurate predictions using the ECMWF S2S forecast system were obtained only after the MJO formation.The skillful prediction of the MJO during late spring may provide an opportunity to accurately predict the establishment of the SCSSM several weeks in advance.

Characteristics of the Onset of the Asian Summer Monsoon and the Importance of Asian-Australian "Land Bridge"

Based on summarizing previous achievements and characteristics of Asian summer monsoon and the role using data as long and new as possible, the onset of Asian-Australian ＂land bridge＂ in the onset of summer monsoon are further discussed. In particular, the earliest onset area of Asian summer monsoon is comparatively analyzed, and the sudden and progressive characteristics of the onset of summer monsoon in different regions are discussed, Furthermore, the relationships among such critical events during the onset of Asian summer monsoon as the splitting of subtropical high belt over the Bay of Bengal （BOB）, the initiation of convection over Indo-China Peninsula, the westward advance, reestablishment of South Asian High, and the rapid northward progression of convection originated from Sumatra in early summer are studied. The important impact of the proper collocation of she latent heating over Indo-China Peninsula and the sensible heating over Indian Peninsula on the splitting of the subtropical high belt, the deepening of BOB trough, the activating of Sri Lanka vortex （twin vortexes in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres）, and the subsequent onset of South China Sea summer monsoon are emphasized.

On the Onset of the South China Sea Summer Monsoon in 1998

Through analyzing the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, the satellite observational data and the ATLAS-2 mooring buoy observational data, it is shown that May 21 is the onset date of the South China Sea summer monsoon in 1998. There were abrupt variations in the general circulation pattern at the lower troposphere and the upper troposphere, in upper jet stream location and in the convection and rainfall over the South China Sea region corresponding to the outbreak of the South China Sea summer monsoon. It is also indicated that there was rainfall in the southern China coastal region before onset of summer monsoon, but it resulted from the (cold) front activity and cannot be regarded as the sign of summer monsoon outbreak in the South China Sea. Key words Onset - South China Sea summer monsoon - General circulation pattern, Jet stream - Convection This work was supported by the State Key Project for Research—“ The South China Sea Monsoon Experiment”, CAS (KZ951-B1-408) and CNSF (49823002).

The Summer Monsoon Onset over the Tropical Eastern Indian Ocean: The Earliest Onset Process of the Asian Summer Monsoon

The onset process of the tropical eastern Indian Ocean （TEIO） summer monsoon （TEIOSM） and its relationship with the cross-equatorial flows are investigated via climatological analysis. Climatologically, results indicate that the earliest onset process of the Asian summer monsoon occurs over the TEIO at pentad 22 （April 15-20）. Unlike the abrupt onset of the South China Sea （SCS） summer monsoon, the TEIOSM onset process displays a stepwise advance. Moreover, a close relationship between the TEIOSM development and the northward push of the cross-equatorial flows over 80^-90~E is revealed. A difference vorticity center, together with the counterpart over the southern Indian Ocean, constitutes a pair of difference cyclonic vortices, which strengthens the southwesterly wind over the TEIO and the northerly wind to the west of the Indian Peninsula from the end of March to late May. Therefore, the occurrence of the southwesterly wind over the TEIO is earlier than its counterpart over the tropical western Indian Ocean, and the cross-equatorial flows emerge firstly over the TEIO rather than over the Somali area. The former increases in intensity during its northward propagation, which provides a precondition for the TEIOSM onset and its northward advance.

Interannual variability in the onset of the South China Sea summer monsoon from 1997 to 2014

Using observed and reanalysis datasets,the South China Sea summer monsoon（SCSSM） onset process is analyzed in each year from 1997 to 2014.Regional mean（5-20°N,110-120°E） 850 hPa zonal wind,precipitation,and SST are used as indices to describe SCSSM onset.Three distinct onset types are identified：among the 18 years studied,nine are normal onset years,which are characterized by a well-established westerly wind and associated precipitation over the South China Sea（SCS）;eight are intermittent onset years,in which monsoon precipitation does not occur continuously following the establishment of the westerly wind over the SCS;and one year,2014,is a delayed onset year,in which the western Pacific subtropical high dominates over the SCS after the seasonal transition and prevents the monsoon onset.A comparison of the first two types suggests that a positive SST gradient in the northern Indian Ocean and local SST warming in the SCS are two key factors in the normal SCSSM onset type.With regard to the influence of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation background,there are four late onset years（1997,1998,2007,and 2010） that coincide with El Nino events,but only two early-onset years（1999 and 2012） out of the six years featuring La Nina events.Further analysis suggests that the zonal thermal contrast across the Indian and western Pacific oceans modulates monsoon onset in La Nina years.

ONSET AND RETREAT DATES OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA SUMMER MONSOON AND THEIR RELATIONSHIPS WITH THE MONSOON INTENSITY IN THE CONTEXT OF CLIMATE WARMING

Global gridded daily mean data from the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis(1948-2012) are used to obtain the onset date,retreat date and duration time series of the South China Sea summer monsoon(SCSSM) for the past 65 years.The summer monsoon onset(retreat) date is defined as the time when the mean zonal wind at 850 hPa shifts steadily from easterly(westerly) to westerly(easterly) and the pseudo-equivalent potential temperature at the same level remains steady at greater than 335 K(less than 335 K) in the South China Sea area[110-120°E(10-20°N)].The clockwise vortex of the equatorial Indian Ocean region,together with the cross-equatorial flow and the subtropical high,plays a decisive role in the burst of the SCSSM.The onset date of the SCSSM is closely related to its intensity.With late(early) onset of the summer monsoon,its intensity is relatively strong(weak),and the zonal wind undergoes an early(late) abrupt change in the upper troposphere.Climate warming significantly affects the onset and retreat dates of the SCSSM and its intensity.With climate warming,the number of early-onset(-retreat) years of the SCSSM is clearly greater(less),and the SCSSM is clearly weakened.

Atmospheric Circulation Characteristics Associated with the Onset of Asian Summer Monsoon

The onset of the Asian summer monsoon has been a focus in the monsoon study for many years. In this paper, we study the variability and predictability of the Asian summer monsoon onset and demonstrate that this onset is associated with specific atmospheric circulation characteristics. The outbreak of the Asian summer mol）~soon is found to occur first over the southwestern part of the South China Sea （SCS） and the Malay Peninsula region, and the monsoon onset is closely related to intra-seasonal oscillations in the lower atmosphere. These intra-seasonal oscillations consist of two low-frequency vortex pairs, one located to the east of the Philippines and the other over the tropical eastern Indian Ocean. Prior to the Asian summer monsoon onset, a strong low-frequency westerly emerges over the equatorial Indian Ocean and the low-frequency vortex pair develops symmetrically along the equator. The formation and evolution of these low-frequency vortices are important and serve as a good indicator for the Asian summer monsoon onset. The relationship between the northward jumps of the westerly jet over East Asia and the Asian summer monsoon onset over SCS is investigated. It is shown that the northward jump of the westerly jet occurs twice during the transition from winter to summer and these jumps are closely related to the summer monsoon development. The first northward jump （from 25°-28°N to around 30°N） occurs on 8 May on average, about 7 days ahead of the summer monsoon onset over the SCS. It is found that the reverse of meridional temperature gradient in the upper-middle troposphere （500-200 hPa） and the enhancement and northward movement of the subtropical jet in the Southern Hemispheric subtropics are responsible for the first northward jump of the westerly jet.

Decadal Changes in Interannual Dependence of the Bay of Bengal Summer Monsoon Onset on ENSO Modulated by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation

Interannual variations of the Bay of Bengal summer monsoon (BOBSM) onset in association with El Ni-o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are reexamined using NCEP1, JRA-55 and ERA20C atmospheric and Hadley sea surface temperature (SST) reanalysis datasets over the period 1900-2017. Decadal changes exist in the dependence of the BOBSM onset on ENSO, varying with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). A higher correlation between the BOBSM onset and ENSO arises during the warm PDO epochs, with distinct late (early) onsets following El Ni-o (La Ni-a) events. In contrast, less significant correlations occur during the cold PDO epochs. The mechanism for the PDO modulating the ENSO-BOBSM onset relationship is through the variations in SST anomaly (SSTA) patterns. During the warm PDO epochs, the superimpositions of the PDO-related and ENSO-related SSTAs lead to the SSTA distribution of an El Ni-o (La Ni-a) event exhibiting significant positive (negative) SSTAs over the tropical central-eastern Pacific and Indian Ocean along with negative (positive) SSTAs, especially over the tropical western Pacific (TWP), forming a strong zonal interoceanic SSTA gradient between the TWP and tropical Indian Ocean. Significant anomalous lower tropospheric easterlies (westerlies) together with upper-tropospheric westerlies (easterlies) are thus induced over the BOB, favoring an abnormally late (early) BOBSM onset. During the cold PDO epochs, however, the superimpositions of PDO-related SSTAs with El Ni-o-related (La Ni-a-related) SSTAs lead to insignificant SSTAs over the TWP and a weak zonal SSTA gradient, without distinct circulation anomalies over the BOB favoring early or late BOBSM onsets.

DETERMINATION OF ONSET DATE OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA SUMMER MONSOON IN 2006 USING LARGE-SCALE CIRCULATIONS

Since the South China Sea (SCS) summer monsoon (SCSSM) is pronouncedly featured by abruptly intensified southwesterly and obviously increased precipitation over the SCS,the lower-tropospheric winds and/or convection intensities are widely used to determine the SCSSM onset.The methods can be used successfully in most of the years but not in 2006.Due to the intrusion of Typhoon Chanchu(0601)that year,the usual method of determining SCSSM onset date by utilizing the SCS regional indices is less capable of pinpointing the real onset date.In order to solve the problem,larger-scale situations have to be taken into account.Zonal and meridional circulations would be better to determine the break-out date of SCSSM in 2006.The result indicates that its onset date is May 16.Moreover,similar onset dates for other years can be obtained using various methods,implying that large-scale zonal and meridional circulations can be used as an alternative method for determining the SCSSM onset date.

Relationship between Indian Ocean dipole and ENSO and their connection with the onset of South China Sea summer monsoon

Using Reynolds and Smith 1950 - 1998 re-constructed monthly-mean SST to discuss the relationship between the ENSO and Indian Ocean dipole （IOD） and their possible connection with the onset of South China Sea summer monsoon（ SCSSM）, the results are obtained as follows ： Most of IOD events have a closely positive relation to simultaneous ENSO events in summer and autumn. IOD events in autumn （ mature phase） are also closely related to ENSO events in winter （ mature phase）. When these two kinds of events happen in phase, i.e. , positive （negative） IOD events are coupled with E1 Nifío （La Nifía） events, they are always followed by late （ or early） onsets of SCSSM. On the contrary, when these two kinds of events happen out of phase, i.e. positive （negative） IOD events are coupled with La Nifia （ E1 Nifío） events, they are followed by normal onsets of SCSSM. In addition, single IOD events or single ENSO events cannot correspond well to the abnormal onset of SCSSM.

COMPOSITE ANALYSIS OF SUMMER MONSOON ONSET PROCESS OVER SOUTH CHINA SEA

Based on the method of composite analysis, the onset process and preceding signs of summer monsoon over the South China Sea (SCS) is investigated. The result indicates that convection activities appear first over the Indo-China Peninsula prior to the onset of the monsoon, then around the Philippines just at the point of onset, implying that the convection activities around the Philippines serve as one of the reasons leading to the SCS monsoon onset. Before the SCS monsoon onset, the equatorial westerly over the Indian Ocean (75(E ～ 95(E ) experiences noticeable enhancement and plays an important role on the SCS monsoon onset. It propagates eastward rapidly and causes the establishment and strengthening of equatorial westerly in the southern SCS, on the one hand, it results in the migration southward of the westerly on south side of the south-China stationary front by means of shift northeastward of the westerly and convection over the Bay of Bengal, on the other. Further study also shows that the intensification of equatorial westerly in the Indian Ocean (75(E ～ 95(E) and the southern SCS is closely related to the reinforcement of the Southern-Hemisphere Mascarene high and Australian high, and cross-equatorial flow northward around Somali, at 85(E and 105(E, respectively.

DETERMINATION OF SOUTH CHINA SEA MONSOON ONSET AND EAST ASIAN SUMMER MONSOON INDEX

Results of the definition of South China Sea summer monsoon onset date and East Asian summermonsoon index in recent years are summarized in this paper. And more questions to be resolved are introducedlater.

Strengthened Regulation of the Onset of the South China Sea Summer Monsoon by the Northwest Indian Ocean Warming in the Past Decade

Traditionally,a delayed(early)onset of the South China Sea summer monsoon(SCSSM)has been observed to follow a warm(cold)El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)event in winter,supporting high seasonal predictability of SCSSM onset.However,the empirical seasonal forecasting skill of the SCSSM onset,solely based on ENSO,has deteriorated since 2010.Meanwhile,unexpected delayed onsets of the SCSSM have also occurred in the past decade.We attribute these changes to the Northwest Indian Ocean(NWIO)warming of the sea surface.The NWIO warming has teleconnections related to(1)suppressing the seasonal convection over the South China Sea,which weakens the impacts of ENSO on SCSSM onset and delays the start of SCSSM,and(2)favoring more high-frequency,propagating moist convective activities,which enhances the uncertainty of the seasonal prediction of SCSSM onset date.Our results yield insight into the predictability of the SCSSM onset under the context of uneven ocean warming operating within the larger-scale background state of global climate change.

An Alternative Index for the Onset of the Summer Monsoon over the South China Sea

An alternative index for the onset of summer monsoon over the South China Sea (SCS) has been designed based on the reanalysis data of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR). It is found that the difference between the geopotential thickness over Guangzhou and Manila can be used as an alternative index for the onset of summer monsoon over the SCS. Since the convective heating alters the geopotential height and the distance between Guangzhou and Manila is of synoptic scale in the geostraphic framework, the index can represent the strength of heating and the first baroclinic cell over the SCS. By comparison between different indices, it is found that the summer monsoon onset over the SCS can be ascertained by the vertical zonal wind shear between 200 hPa and 850 hPa, the zonal wind at 850 hPa, the OLR anomaly, and the alternative index defined in the present paper. The meridional wind shear between 200 hPa and 850 hPa always appears over the SCS much earlier than the zonal wind shear and cannot be used as an index under consideration.

Role of Western Pacific Oceanic Variability in the Onset of the Bay of Bengal Summer Monsoon

The influence of the tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean heat content on the onset of the Bay of Bengal summer monsoon （BOBSM） onset was investigated using atmospheric data from the NCEP and ocean subsurface temperature data from the Japan Metorology Agency （JMA）. Results showed that the onset time of the BOBSM is highly related to the tropical Pacific upper ocean heat content （HC）, especially in the key region of the western Pacific warm pool （WPWP）, during the preceding winter and spring. When the HC anomalies in the WPWP are positive （negative）, the onset of the BOBSM is usually early （late）. Accompanied by the variation of the convection activity over the WPWP, mainly induced by the underlying ocean temperature anomalies, the Walker circulation becomes stronger or weaker. This enhances or weakens the westerly over the tropical Indian Ocean flowing into the BOB in the boreal spring, which is essential to BOBSM onset. The possible mechanism of influence of cyclonic/anti-cyclonic circulation over the northwestern tropical Pacific on BOBSM onset is also discussed.

Response of the South China Sea summer monsoon onset to air-sea heat fluxes over the Indian Ocean

We objectively define the onset date of the South China Sea (SCS) summer monsoon, after having evaluated previous studies and considered various factors. Then, interannual and interdecadal characteristics of the SCS summer monsoon onset are analyzed. In addition, we calculate air-sea heat fluxes over the Indian Ocean using the advanced method of CORARE3.0, based on satellite remote sensing data. The onset variation cycle has remarkable interdecadal variability with cycles of 16 a and 28 a. Correlation analysis between air-sea heat fluxes in the Indian Ocean and the SCS summer monsoon indicates that there is a remarkable lag correlation between them. This result has important implications for prediction of the SCS summer monsoon, and provides a scientific basis for further study of the onset process of this monsoon and its prediction. Based on these results, a linear regression equation is obtained to predict the onset date of the monsoon in 2011 and 2012. The forecast is that the onset date of 2011 will be normal or 1 pentad earlier than the normal year, while the onset date in 2012 will be 1-2 pentads later.

Characteristics of Tropical Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies and Their Influences on the Onset of South China Sea Summer Monsoon

The characteristics of sea surface temperature anomalies （SSTAs） in the tropical oceans and their influences on the onset of South China Sea summer monsoon （SCSSM） have been studied.The anomaly of SST in tropical Pacific Ocean exerts persistence impact for one to three months on atmospheric circulations.If the warm pool becomes anomalously warmer during an earlier period from February to April,the SCSSM breaks out earlier,and vice versa.Singular value decomposition （SVD） and composite analysis have shown that,in La Ni（n）a pattern,the convection over Western Pacific will occur earlier and be stronger than normal,which favors the convergence at a lower layer over Western Pacific,as well as the strengthening of upwelling branch of Walker circulation,leading to an earlier burst of westerly in the southern South China Sea.Moreover,the convection in Sumatra appears earlier than normal and favors the westerly evolution in eastern Indian Ocean,resulting in the splitting of the subtropical high belt and an early onset of SCSSM.However,the atmospheric circulation anomaly is reversed in El Ni（n）o pattern.

COMPARISON OF CHARACTERISTICS BETWEEN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA SUMMER MONSOON OUTBREAKS IN 2004 AND 2008

The South China Sea summer monsoon is an important system affecting the weather and climate in China;its outbreak and evolution vary from year to year.Using the reanalysis data from the U.S.National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA),USA,we analyze the circulation pattern,precipitation distribution,convection,temperature,and humidity around the monsoon outbreaks in 2004 and 2008.Results show that the monsoon had a late onset in 2004 (May 19) but an early outbreak in 2008 (May 4).Prior to the monsoon outbreak in 2008,cross-equatorial flows in Somalia were weaker than in 2004,subtropical precipitation did not arrive in southern China as it did in 2004,and the strongest convection was located more southward than in 2004.The results also indicate that accumulated rainfall in the Indochina Peninsula was about 61% of that in 2004 during a period of 25 days leading up to the monsoon outbreak,causing differences in land surface processes and then different activity levels for the summer monsoon.Post-onset warm and humid conditions in 2008 (2004) maintained through the end of October (mid-September),while the summer monsoon lasted longer in 2008 than in 2004.

THE CLIMATIC CHARACTERISTICS OF SUMMER MONSOON ONSET OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA I.40-YEAR AVERAGE

By using 40-year NCEP reanalysis daily data (1958-1997), we have analyzed the climatic characteristics of summer monsoon onset in the South China Sea (105E ~ 120E, 5N ~ 20N, to be simplified as SCS in the text followed) pentad by pentad (5 days). According to our new definition, in the monsoon area of the SCS two of the following conditions should be satisfied: 1) At 850hPa, the southwest winds should be greater than 2m/s. 2) At 850 hPa, seq should be greater than 335K. The new definition means that the summer monsoon is the southwest winds with high temperature and high moisture. The onset of the SCS summer monsoon is defined to start when one half of the SCS area (105E ~ 120E,5N ~ 20N) is controlled by the summer monsoon. The analyzed results revealed the following: 1) The summer monsoon in the SCS starts to build up abruptly in the 4th pentad in May. 2) The summer monsoon onset in the SCS is resulted from the development and intensification of southwesterly monsoon in the Bay of Bengal. 3) The onset of the summer monsoon and establishment of the summer monsoon rainfall season in the SCS occur simultaneously. 4) During the summer monsoon onset in the SCS, troughs deepen and widen quickly in the lower troposphere of the India; the subtropical high in the Western Pacific moves eastward off the SCS in the middle troposphere; the easterly advances northward over the SCS in the upper troposphere.