Country-based modelling of COVID-19 case fatality rate:A multiple regression analysis

BACKGROUND The spread of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 outbreak worldwide has caused concern regarding the mortality rate caused by the infection.The determinants of mortality on a global scale cannot be fully understood due to lack of information.AIM To identify key factors that may explain the variability in case lethality across countries.METHODS We identified 21 Potential risk factors for coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)case fatality rate for all the countries with available data.We examined univariate relationships of each variable with case fatality rate(CFR),and all independent variables to identify candidate variables for our final multiple model.Multiple regression analysis technique was used to assess the strength of relationship.RESULTS The mean of COVID-19 mortality was 1.52±1.72%.There was a statistically significant inverse correlation between health expenditure,and number of computed tomography scanners per 1 million with CFR,and significant direct correlation was found between literacy,and air pollution with CFR.This final model can predict approximately 97%of the changes in CFR.CONCLUSION The current study recommends some new predictors explaining affect mortality rate.Thus,it could help decision-makers develop health policies to fight COVID-19.

A Study on the Global Scenario of COVID-19 Related Case Fatality Rate, Recovery Rate and Prevalence Rate and Its Implications for India—A Record Based Retrospective Cohort Study

Importance: Corona virus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is the pandemic claiming millions of lives since the first outbreak was reported in Wuhan, China during December 2019. It is thus important to make cross-country comparison of the relevant rates and understand the socio-demographic risk factors. Methods: This is a record based retrospective cohort study. Table 1 was extracted from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ and from the Corona virus resource center (Table 2, Figures 1-3), Johns Hopkins University. Data for Table 1 includes all countries which reported >1000 cases and Table 2 includes 20 countries reporting the largest number of deaths. The estimation of CFR, RR and PR of the infection, and disease pattern across geographical clusters in the world is presented. Results: From Table 1, we could infer that as on 4th May 2020, COVID-19 has rapidly spread world-wide with total infections of 3,566,423 and mortality of 248,291. The maximum morbidity is in USA with 1,188,122 cases and 68,598 deaths (CFR 5.77%, RR 15% and PR 16.51%), while Spain is at the second position with 247,122 cases and 25,264 deaths (CFR 13.71%, RR 38.75%, PR 9.78%). Table 2 depicts the scenario as on 8th October 2020, where-in the highest number of confirmed cases occurred in US followed by India and Brazil (cases per million population: 23,080, 5007 & 23,872 respectively). For deaths per million population: US recorded 647, while India and Brazil recorded 77 and 708 respectively. Conclusion: Studying the distribution of relevant rates across different geographical clusters plays a major role for measuring the disease burden, which in-turn enables implementation of appropriate public healthcare measures.

Tuberculosis Case Notification and Treatment Outcomes in West Gojjam Zone, Northwest Ethiopia: A Five-Year Retrospective Study

Introduction: Tuberculosis (TB) is a major public health concern in Ethiopia. Analysis of TB case notification and treatment outcomes is crucial to understand the TB control program performance. The current study was carried out to assess trends of TB case notifications, treatment success rate and factors associated with unsuccessful treatment outcome among TB patients in West Gojjam Zone of Amhara Region, Ethiopia. Method: A retrospective cohort study was conducted in West Gojjam Zone. Demographic and clinical data were reviewed for all TB patients registered between July 2007 and June 2012 at 30 randomly selected public health facilities of the study zone. In addition, annual case notification reports of the study zone were used to analyze trends in TB case notifications. Logistic regression analysis was used to assess the association between potential predictor variables and unsuccessful treatment outcomes. Results: Tuberculosis case notification for all forms of TB decreased from 203/100,000 population in 2007 to 155/100,000 population in 2012. Among patients whose treatment outcomes were evaluated, 94.4% were successfully treated, 0.3% had treatment failure, 1.5% defaulted and 3.7% died. In multivariate analysis, the odds of unsuccessful treatment outcome was higher among retreatment cases than new cases (adjusted OR, 3.44;95% CI: 1.92, 6.19). HIV co-infected cases were more likely to have unsuccessful treatment outcome compared to HIV negatives (adjusted OR, 2.68;95% CI: 1.92, 3.72). Conclusion: Tuberculosis case notification rates showed a decreasing trend between 2007 and 2012. The treatment success rate exceeded the 90% treatment success rate target as set by the WHO. Special attention is required for patients with high risk of unsuccessful treatment outcome. Therefore, retreatment cases, and HIV positive cases need strict follow up throughout their treatment period.

COVID-19 pandemic changed the management and outcomes of acute appendicitis in northern Beijing:A single-center study

BACKGROUND Since the outbreak of the coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)pandemic,outcomes and management of many diseases have been affected.Acute appendicitis is a common acute abdomen.The incidence rate is 0.05%-0.5%.Studies reported that the number of patients with appendicitis admitted to emergency department significantly decreased since the pandemic.People avoided going to the hospital for fear of being infected.Different countries have different epidemic prevention measures that result in different treatment outcomes.The Chinese government also published some temporary measures in order to prevent the outbreak.AIM To explore the changes in management and outcomes of acute appendicitis during the COVID-19 pandemic in the North of Beijing.METHODS Patients with acute appendicitis admitted to Beijing Tsinghua Changgung Hospital between February and June 2019 and February and June 2020 were retrospectively reviewed.Cases were grouped according to admission year.The demographic characteristics,present illnesses,medical history,symptoms and signs,comorbidities,blood test results,imaging data,appendix pathology,and treatment details were compared.RESULTS Overall,74 patients received nonsurgical treatment and 113 patients underwent surgical treatment in group 2019,whereas 159 patients received nonsurgical treatment and 26 patients received surgical treatment in group 2020.Fever,thick appendix,nonsurgical management,and uncomplicated appendicitis(simple or supportive appendicitis)were more common in group 2020(P<0.05).Among the nonsurgical management cases,the neutrophil percentage,neutrophil-tolymphocyte ratio,and recurrence rate were higher in group 2020(P<0.05).Among surgically managed cases,there were more cases with gastrointestinal symptoms,peritonitis,ascites in the image,and intraoperative adhesion or ascites in group 2020(P<0.05).The white blood cell count,time from diagnosis to surgery,surgical time,and intraoperative blood loss were higher in group 2020(P<0.05).CONCLUSION During the COVID-19 pandemic,patients suffering from acute appendicitis in Beijing tended to present with severe symptoms and opt for nonsurgical treatment.For patients who underwent surgical management,the operation was delayed and more difficult during the pandemic.Nevertheless,the hospital stay and the incidence of postsurgical complications did not change.

Prevalence and outcome of acute kidney injury,as defined by the new Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes guideline,in very low birth weight infants

AIM To evaluate the prevalence, risk factors and outcome of acute kidney injury(AKI) in very low birth weight(VLBW) infants. METHODS In this retrospective study of VLBW infants, we analyzed the prevalence of AKI, as defined by changes in serum creatinine and urine output, associated risk factors and outcomes.RESULTS A total of 293 VLBW infants(mean gestational age 28.7 wk) were included, of whom 109 weighed less than 1000 g at birth. The overall prevalence of AKI was 11.6%(22% in infants with a birth weight under 1000 g and 5.4% those heavier). A total of 19(55%) affected infants died, with a mortality rate of 58% in infant less than 1000 g and 50% in those heavier. After adjusting for confounding variables, only necrotizing enterocolitis(NEC) remained associated with AKI, with odds ratio of 4.9(95%CI: 1.9-18.6). Blood pressure and glomerular filtration rate(GFR) were not different between affected infants and the others upon discharge from hospital. A normal GFR was documented in all affected infants at one year of age.CONCLUSION Using Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes definition of AKI, it occurred in over 10% of VLBW infants,more commonly in infants with lower birth weight. NEC was an independent associated risk factor. Renal function, as defined by GFR, was normal in all surviving affected infants 10 to 12 mo later.

A Retrospective Analytical Study of Forensic Evidence in Rape and Murder Cases and its Implications on Judicial Outcomes in India

In rape and murder cases,forensic science precisely establishes the link between the accused and either the victim or the crime scene,or both,which aids police investigation and the trial process by providing scientific evidence to corroborate or contradict the accused’s guilt.This study focuses on the importance of forensic evidence in deciding rape cases in India.This study aimed to analyze the correlation between forensic evidence and judicial outcomes in determining the conviction rate.This is a retrospective analytical study of rape and murder cases of the Supreme Court of India(SCI)Judgments from 1992 to 2021 using the library and digital library resources.The data obtained were subjected to Pearson’s correlation test to assess the relationship between forensic evidence and judicial outcomes.The results were considered statistically significant at P<0.05.In 20(5.22%)sensational,heinous rape and murder cases,13(65%)cases had proper handling of the forensic samples,while 7(35%)cases had improper handling of the forensic samples or inconsistent forensic reports were given.Based on the forensic reports and other factors,the SCI affirmed the sentence in 11(55%)cases,commuted imprisonment in 7(35%)cases,and acquitted 2(15%)cases.Further,the statistical analysis shows that forensic evidence and judicial outcomes have a moderately positive correlation with each other(0.2<r<0.5,P<0.05).In rape and murder cases,SCI judgments have a high conviction rate.However,the SCI commuted the sentence based on inconsistent forensic reports and acquitted based on mishandled forensic reports.

A new method for accurate calculation of case fatality rates during a pandemic:Mathematical deduction based on population-level big data

Background:During the course of an epidemic of a potentially fatal disease,it is difficult to accurately estimate the case fatality rate(CFR)because many calculation methods do not account for the delay between case confirmation and disease outcome.Taking the coronavirus disease-2019(COVID-19)as an example,this study aimed to develop a new method for CFR calculation while the pandemic was ongoing.Methods:We developed a new method for CFR calculation based on the following formula:number of deaths divided by the number of cases T days before,where T is the average delay between case confirmation and disease outcome.An objective law was found using simulated data that states if the hypothesized T is equal to the true T,the calculated real-time CFR remains constant;whereas if the hypothesized T is greater(or smaller)than the true T,the real-time CFR will gradually decrease(or increase)as the days progress until it approaches the true CFR.Results:Based on the discovered law,it was estimated that the true CFR of COVID-19 at the initial stage of the pandemic in China,excluding Hubei Province,was 0.8%;and in Hubei Province,it was 6.6%.The calculated CFRs predicted the death count with almost complete accuracy.Conclusions:The method could be used for the accurate calculation of the true CFR during a pandemic,instead of waiting until the end of the pandemic,whether the pandemic is under control or not.It could provide those involved in outbreak control a clear view of the timeliness of case confirmations.

Effect of in-hospital medical complications on case fatality post-acute ischemic stroke： data from the China National Stroke Registry

Background In-hospital medical complications are associated with poorer clinical outcomes for stroke patients after disease onset. However, few studies from China have reported the effect of these complications on the mortality of patients with acute ischemic stroke. In this prospective work, the China National Stroke Registry Study, we investigated the effect of medical complications on the case fatality of patients with acute ischemic stroke. Methods From September 2007 to August 2008, we prospectively obtained the data of patients with acute stroke from 132 clinical centers in China. Medical complications, case fatality and other information recorded at baseline, during hospitalisation, and at 3, 6, and 12 months after stroke onset. Multivariable Logistic regression was performed to analyze the effect of medical complications on the case fatality of patients with acute ischemic stroke. Results There were 39741 patients screened, 14526 patients with acute ischemic stroke recruited, and 11 560 ischemic stroke patients without missing data identified during the 12-month follow-up. Of the 11 560 ischemic patients, 15.8% （1826） had in-hospital medical complications. The most common complication was pneumonia （1373; 11.9% of patients）, followed by urinary tract infection and gastrointestinal bleeding. In comparison with patients without complications, stroke patients with complications had a significantly higher risk of death during their hospitalization, and at 3, 6 and 12 months post-stroke. Having any one in-hospital medical complication was an independent risk factor for death in patients with acute ischemic stroke during hospital period （adjusted OR=6.946; 95% CI 5.181 to 9.314）, at 3 months （adjusted OR=3.843; 95% C/3.221 to 4.584）, 6 months （adjusted OR=3.492; 95% CI 2.970 to 4.106）, and 12 months （adjusted OR= 3.511; 95% CI 3.021 to 4.080）. Having multiple complications strongly increased the death risk of patients. Conclusion Short-term and long-term outcomes of acute stroke patients are affected by in-hospital medical complications.

Severe aconite poisoning successfully treated with veno-arterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation:A case report

BACKGROUND Most species of aconite contain highly toxic aconitines,the oral ingestion of which can be fatal,primarily because they cause ventricular arrhythmias.We describe a case of severe aconite poisoning that was successfully treated through venoarterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation(VA-ECMO)and in which detailed toxicological analyses of the aconite roots and biological samples were performed using liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry(LC-MS/MS).CASE SUMMARY A 23-year-old male presented to the emergency room with circulatory collapse and ventricular arrhythmia after ingesting approximately half of a root labeled,“Aconitum japonicum Thunb”.Two hours after arrival,VA-ECMO was initiated as circulatory collapse became refractory to antiarrhythmics and vasopressors.Nine hours after arrival,an electrocardiogram revealed a return to sinus rhythm.The patient was weaned off VA-ECMO and the ventilator on hospital days 3 and 5,respectively.On hospital day 15,he was transferred to a psychiatric hospital.The other half of the root and his biological samples were toxicologically analyzed using LC-MS/MS,revealing 244.3 mg/kg of aconitine and 24.7 mg/kg of mesaconitine in the root.Serum on admission contained 1.50 ng/mL of aconitine.Beyond hospital day 2,neither were detected.Urine on admission showed 149.09 ng/mL of aconitine and 3.59 ng/mL of mesaconitine,but these rapidly decreased after hospital day 3.CONCLUSION The key to saving the life of a patient with severe aconite poisoning is to introduce VA-ECMO as soon as possible.

Normal pregnancy outcome after first-trimester exposure to semaglutide in an overweight woman: a case report

We reported a case of an overweight 34-year-old woman who unexpectedly became pregnant while undergoing semaglutide in early pregnancy and delivered a healthy male infant by caesarean section at 37 weeks and 4 days of gestation.Until now,the safety of semaglutide for use during pregnancy was unknown.This report may contribute to the limited knowledge available on pregnant women exposure to semaglutide.

COVID-19 case fatality risk by age and gender in a high testing setting in Latin America: Chile, March-August 2020

Background:Early severity estimates of coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)are critically needed to assess the potential impact of the on going pandemic in differe nt demographic groups.Here we estimate the real-time delayadjusted case fatality rate across nine age groups by gender in Chile,the country with the highest testing rate for COVID-19 in Latin America.Methods:We used a publicly available real-time daily series of age-stratified COVID-19 cases and deaths reported by the Ministry of Health in Chile from the beginning of the epidemic in March through August 31,2020.We used a robust likelihood function and a delay distribution to estimate real-time delay-adjusted case-fatality risk and estimate model parameters using a Monte Carlo Markov Chain in a Bayesian framework.

Active case-finding for tuberculosis by mobile teams in Myanmar:yield and treatment outcomes

Background:Since 2005,the Myanmar National Tuberculosis Programme(NTP)has been implementing active case finding(ACF)activities involving mobile teams in hard-to-reach areas.This study revealed the contribution of mobile team activities to total tuberculosis(TB)case detection,characteristics of TB patients detected by mobile teams and their treatment outcomes.Methods:This was a descriptive study using routine programme data between October 2014 and December 2014.Mobile team activities were a one-stop service and included portable digital chest radiography(CXR)and microscopy of two sputum samples.The algorithm of the case detection included screening patients by symptoms,then by CXR followed by sputum microscopy for confirmation.Diagnosed patients were started on treatment and followed until a final outcome was ascertained.Results:A total of 9349 people with symptoms suggestive of TB were screened by CXR,with an uptake of 96.6%.Of those who were meant to undergo sputum smear microscopy,51.4%had sputum examinations.Finally,504 TB patients were identified by the mobile teams and the overall contribution to total TB case detection in the respective townships was 25.3%.Among total cases examined by microscopy,6.4%were sputum smear positive TB.Treatment success rate was high as 91.8%in study townships compared to national rate 85%(2014 cohort).Conclusions:This study confirmed the feasibility and acceptability of ACF by mobile teams in hard-to-reach contexts,especially when equipped with portable,digital CXR machines that provided immediate results.However,the follow-up process of sputum examination created a significant barrier to confirmation of the diagnosis.In order to optimize the ACF through mobile team activity,future ACF activities were needed to be strengthened one stop service including molecular diagnostics or provision of sputum cups to all presumptive TB cases prior to CXR and testing if CXR suggestive of TB.

Case Control Study of Post-endoscopic Variceal Ligation Bleeding Ulcers in Severe Liver Disease: Outcomes and Management

Background and Aims:The management of post-endoscopic variceal ligation(EVL)bleeding ulcers(PEBUs)is currently based on local expertise and patients liver disease status.The present retrospective study investigated associations between the endoscopic morphology of PEBUs and patient outcomes.Methods:Patients underwent EVL(primary or secondary),from January 2015 to January 2018,in two tertiary care hospitals in India(ILBS New Delhi and Dharamshila Narayana New Delhi).Mortality rates were determined at post-EVL day five and week six.PEBUs were typified based on Jamwal&Sarin classification system as follows:A,ulcer with active spurting;B,ulcer with ooze;C,ulcer base with visible vessel or clot;and D,clean or pigmented base.Results:Of 3854 EVL procedures,141(3.6%)patients developed PEBU,and 46/141(32.6%)suffered mortality.Among the former,the PEBU types A,B,C,and D accounted for 17.7,26.2,36.3,and 19.8%,respectively.Of those who died,39.1,30.4,21.7,and 8.8%had PEBU types A,B,C,and D.Treatments included transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunts(TIPS),esophageal self-expandable metal stent(SEMS),glue and sclerosant injection,Sengstaken-Blakemore tube placement and liver transplant.On univariate analysis,no correlation with hepatic venous pressure gradient,TIPS placement,size of varices,or number of bands was found.The Model for EndStage Liver Disease(MELD)-sodium score correlated positively with outcome.After adjusting for MELD-sodium score,mortality was best predicted by type-A ulcer(p=0.024;OR 8.95,CI 1.34-59.72).Conclusions:PEBU occurred in 3.6%of a large EVL cohort.Stratifying patients based on PEBU type can help predict outcomes,independent of the MELD-sodium score.Classifying PEBUs by endoscopic morphology may inform treatment strategies,and warrants further validation.

Cardiac arrest secondary to pulmonary embolism treated with extracorporeal cardiopulmonary resuscitation:Six case reports

BACKGROUND Massive pulmonary embolism(PE)results in extremely high mortality rates.Veno-arterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation(VA-ECMO)can provide circulatory and oxygenation support and rescue patients with massive PE.However,there are relatively few studies of extracorporeal cardiopulmonary resuscitation(ECPR)in patients with cardiac arrest(CA)secondary to PE.The aim of the present study is to investigate the clinical use of ECPR in conjunction with heparin anticoagulation in patients with CA secondary to PE.CASE SUMMARY We report the cases of six patients with CA secondary to PE treated with ECPR in the intensive care unit of our hospital between June 2020 and June 2022.All six patients experienced witnessed CA whilst in hospital.They had acute onset of severe respiratory distress,hypoxia,and shock rapidly followed by CA and were immediately given cardiopulmonary resuscitation and adjunctive VA-ECMO therapy.During hospitalization,pulmonary artery computed tomography angiography was performed to confirm the diagnosis of PE.Through anticoagulation management,mechanical ventilation,fluid management,and antibiotic treatment,five patients were successfully weaned from ECMO(83.33%),four patients survived for 30 d after discharge(66.67%),and two patients had good neurological outcomes(33.33%).CONCLUSION For patients with CA secondary to massive PE,ECPR in conjunction with heparin anticoagulation may improve outcomes.

A simple approach to estimate the instantaneous case fatality ratio:Using the publicly available COVID-19 surveillance data in Canada as an example

The case fatality ratio(CFR)is one of the key measurements to evaluate the clinical severity of infectious diseases.The CFR may vary due to change in factors that affect the mortality risk.In this study,we developed a simple likelihood-based framework to estimate the instantaneous CFR of infectious diseases.We used the publicly available COVID-19 surveillance data in Canada for demonstration.We estimated the mean fatality ratio of reported COVID-19 cases(rCFR)in Canada was estimated at 6.9%(95%CI:4.5e10.6).We emphasize the extensive implementation of the constructed instantaneous CFR that is to identify the key determinants affecting the mortality risk.

Exploring the percentage of COVID-19 cases reported in the community in Canada and associated case fatality ratios

While surveillance can identify changes in COVID-19 transmission patterns over time and space,sections of the population at risk,and the efficacy of public health measures,reported cases of COVID-19 are generally understood to only capture a subset of the actual number of cases.Our primary objective was to estimate the percentage of cases reported in the general community,considered as those that occurred outside of long-term care facilities(LTCFs),in specific provinces and Canada as a whole.We applied a methodology using the delay-adjusted case fatality ratio(CFR)to all cases and deaths,as well as those representing the general community.Our second objective was to assess whether the assumed CFR(mean=1.38%)was appropriate for calculating underestimation of cases in Canada.Estimates were developed for the period from March 11th,2020 to September 16th,2020.Estimates of the percentage of cases reported(PrCR)and CFR varied spatially and temporally across Canada.For the majority of provinces,and for Canada as a whole,the PrCR increased through the early stages of the pandemic.The estimated PrCR in general community settings for all of Canada increased from 18.1%to 69.0%throughout the entire study period.Estimates were greater when considering only those data from outside of LTCFs.The estimated upper bound CFR in general community settings for all of Canada decreased from 9.07%on March 11th,2020 to 2.00%on September 16th,2020.Therefore,the true CFR in the general community in Canada was likely less than 2%on September 16th.According to our analysis,some provinces,such as Alberta,Manitoba,Newfoundland and Labrador,Nova Scotia,and Saskatchewan reported a greater percentage of cases as of September 16th,compared to British Columbia,Ontario,and Quebec.This could be due to differences in testing rates and criteria,demographics,socioeconomic factors,race,and access to healthcare among the provinces.Further investigation into these factors could reveal differences among provinces that could partially explain the variation in estimates of PrCR and CFR identified in our study.The estimates provide context to the summative state of the pandemic in Canada,and can be improved as knowledge of COVID-19 reporting rates and disease characteristics are advanced.

SEIHCRD Model for COVID-19 Spread Scenarios,Disease Predictions and Estimates the Basic Reproduction Number,Case Fatality Rate,Hospital,and ICU Beds Requirement

We have proposed a new mathematical method,the SEIHCRD model,which has an excellent potential to predict the incidence of COVID-19 diseases.Our proposed SEIHCRD model is an extension of the SEIR model.Three-compartments have added death,hospitalized,and critical,which improves the basic understanding of disease spread and results.We have studiedCOVID-19 cases of six countries,where the impact of this disease in the highest are Brazil,India,Italy,Spain,the United Kingdom,and the United States.After estimating model parameters based on available clinical data,the modelwill propagate and forecast dynamic evolution.Themodel calculates the Basic reproduction number over time using logistic regression and the Case fatality rate based on the selected countries’age-category scenario.Themodel calculates two types of Case fatality rate one is CFR daily,and the other is total CFR.The proposed model estimates the approximate time when the disease is at its peak and the approximate time when death cases rarely occur and calculate how much hospital beds and ICU beds will be needed in the peak days of infection.The SEIHCRD model outperforms the classic ARXmodel and the ARIMA model.RMSE,MAPE,andRsquaredmatrices are used to evaluate results and are graphically represented using Taylor and Target diagrams.The result shows RMSE has improved by 56%–74%,and MAPE has a 53%–89%improvement in prediction accuracy.

Case Fatality Rate of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndromes in Beijing

To describe the case fatality rate of SARS in Beijing. Methods Data of SARS cases notified from Beijing Center for Disease Control and Prevention （BCDC） and supplemented by other channels were collected. The data were analyzed by rate calculation. Results The case fatality rate of SARS in Beijing was 7.66%, and had an ascending trend while the age of cases was getting older, and a descending trend while the epidemic developmem. The case fatality rate in Beijing was lower than that in other main epidemic countries or regions. Conclusions The risk of death increases with the increment of age of SARS patients. Beijing is successful in controlling and treating SARS.

Estimation of the case fatality rate of COVID-19 epidemiological data in Nigeria using statistical regression analysis

Following the emergence of COVID-19 outbreak,numbers of studies have been conducted to curtail the global spread of the virus by identifying epidemiological changes of the disease through developing statistical models,estimation of the basic reproduction number,displaying the daily reports of confirmed and deaths cases,which are closely related to the present study.Reliable and comprehensive estimation method of the epidemiological data is required to understand the actual situation of fatalities caused by the epidemic.Case fatality rate(CFR)is one of the cardinal epidemiological parameters that adequately explains epidemiology of the outbreak of a disease.In the present study,we employed two statistical regression models such as the linear and polynomial models in order to estimate the CFR,based on the early phase of COVID-19 outbreak in Nigeria(44 days since first reported COVID-19 death).The estimate of the CFR was determined based on cumulative number of confirmed cases and deaths reported from 23 March to 30 April,2020.The results from the linear model estimated that the CFR was 3.11%(95%CI:2.59%-3.80%)with R2 value of 90%and p-value of<0.0001.The findings from the polynomial model suggest that the CFR associated with the Nigerian outbreak is 3.0%and may range from 2.23%to 3.42%with R2 value of 93%and p-value of<0.0001.Therefore,the polynomial regression model with the higher R2 value fits the dataset well and provides better estimate of CFR for the reported COVID-19 cases in Nigeria.