This article selects 8 main factors(the number of rural employees,total power of agricultural machinery,effective irrigation area of crops,growing area of grain crops,fertilizer consumption,electricity consumption in ...This article selects 8 main factors(the number of rural employees,total power of agricultural machinery,effective irrigation area of crops,growing area of grain crops,fertilizer consumption,electricity consumption in rural areas,area affected and area covered) as the factors influencing grain output,and offers the method of determining weight of factors influencing grain output using entropy weight method.According to the relevant data in the period 1985-2005,we analyze the weight of factors influencing grain output in China by example.The results show that the electricity consumption in rural areas has the greatest impact on grain output,followed by total power of agricultural machinery,fertilizer consumption and area covered.To increase grain output,we must enhance the degree of mechanization,free people from the former process of direct cultivation,strengthen water conservancy construction,and do a good job in disaster prevention and mitigation.展开更多
[Objective] The paper was to study the effect of tobacco blown spot on the yield and output value of tobacco leaf.[Method]The upper,middle and lower leaves in tobacco plant were selected during the harvest period of t...[Objective] The paper was to study the effect of tobacco blown spot on the yield and output value of tobacco leaf.[Method]The upper,middle and lower leaves in tobacco plant were selected during the harvest period of tobacco to carry out loss rate estimation of yield and output value of tobacco leaf caused by different disease levels of brown spot.Regression correlation analysis was also conducted.[Result]The disease levels of brown spot had extremely significant strong negative correlation with single leaf weight of tobacco leaf,and it had extremely significant strong positive correlation with the loss rate of single leaf weight.The increase speed of loss rate of single leaf weight of middle and upper leaves was obviously faster than that of lower leaves.The loss rates of single leaf weight of upper,middle and lower leaves were 3.18%-28.95%,3.43%-28.88% and 10.07%-26.90%,respectively.The higher the disease level of blown spot was,the lower the yield and output value of tobacco leaf was,and the corresponding loss rate was also higher.Correlation analysis showed that the disease level of blown spot had extremely significant strong negative correlation with the yield and output value of tobacco leaf,and it had extremely significant strong positive correlation with the loss rate of yield and output value.The negative impact of blown spot on the output value of tobacco leaf was far greater than that on the yield.The highest loss rate of the yield of tobacco leaf was 28.56%,while the highest loss rate of output value reached 89.67%.[Conclusion] The study provided theoretical basis for accurately holding the critical period for the control of blown spot,thus reducing the damage on tobacco leaf and improving the output value of tobacco leaf.展开更多
随着“双碳”目标的推进,清洁能源所占比重大幅度增加,分布式光伏发电在我国农村地区快速发展,但其随机性、间歇性的特点给新能源消纳和电网稳定带来很大的挑战。光伏发电预测可以在一定程度上改善新能源消纳问题,减少光伏发电的不稳定...随着“双碳”目标的推进,清洁能源所占比重大幅度增加,分布式光伏发电在我国农村地区快速发展,但其随机性、间歇性的特点给新能源消纳和电网稳定带来很大的挑战。光伏发电预测可以在一定程度上改善新能源消纳问题,减少光伏发电的不稳定性对电网的冲击。因此,为提高光伏发电功率预测精度,提出一种基于改进向量加权平均算法优化CNN-QRGRU网络的光伏发电概率预测方法。首先采用ReliefF算法对特征变量进行选择,在此基础上利用高斯混合模型(Gaussian mixture model,GMM)聚类方法将天气分为晴天、晴转多云和阴雨天3种类型,将处理好的数据输入到CNN-GRU模型中,并利用向量加权平均(weighted mean of vectors algorithm,INFO)优化算法对模型超参数进行调参,将分位数回归模型(quantile regression,QR)与INFO-CNN-GRU模型相结合得到光伏功率条件分布,结合核密度估计法从条件分布中获得概率密度函数,完成概率预测。以实际光伏电站数据作为基础,将提出的INFO优化算法与其他几种传统的优化算法进行对比,结果表明INFO的优化效果更好,在此基础上进行概率预测,得到的概率预测结果相较于点预测能提供更多有效信息,更具有应用价值。展开更多
文摘This article selects 8 main factors(the number of rural employees,total power of agricultural machinery,effective irrigation area of crops,growing area of grain crops,fertilizer consumption,electricity consumption in rural areas,area affected and area covered) as the factors influencing grain output,and offers the method of determining weight of factors influencing grain output using entropy weight method.According to the relevant data in the period 1985-2005,we analyze the weight of factors influencing grain output in China by example.The results show that the electricity consumption in rural areas has the greatest impact on grain output,followed by total power of agricultural machinery,fertilizer consumption and area covered.To increase grain output,we must enhance the degree of mechanization,free people from the former process of direct cultivation,strengthen water conservancy construction,and do a good job in disaster prevention and mitigation.
基金Supported by State Tobacco Monopoly Administration Project "National Survey of Pests in Tobacco" (110200902065)Yunnan Tobacco Monopoly Bureau Technology Project " Investigation of Tobacco Pests in Yunnan Province" (2010YN19)~~
文摘[Objective] The paper was to study the effect of tobacco blown spot on the yield and output value of tobacco leaf.[Method]The upper,middle and lower leaves in tobacco plant were selected during the harvest period of tobacco to carry out loss rate estimation of yield and output value of tobacco leaf caused by different disease levels of brown spot.Regression correlation analysis was also conducted.[Result]The disease levels of brown spot had extremely significant strong negative correlation with single leaf weight of tobacco leaf,and it had extremely significant strong positive correlation with the loss rate of single leaf weight.The increase speed of loss rate of single leaf weight of middle and upper leaves was obviously faster than that of lower leaves.The loss rates of single leaf weight of upper,middle and lower leaves were 3.18%-28.95%,3.43%-28.88% and 10.07%-26.90%,respectively.The higher the disease level of blown spot was,the lower the yield and output value of tobacco leaf was,and the corresponding loss rate was also higher.Correlation analysis showed that the disease level of blown spot had extremely significant strong negative correlation with the yield and output value of tobacco leaf,and it had extremely significant strong positive correlation with the loss rate of yield and output value.The negative impact of blown spot on the output value of tobacco leaf was far greater than that on the yield.The highest loss rate of the yield of tobacco leaf was 28.56%,while the highest loss rate of output value reached 89.67%.[Conclusion] The study provided theoretical basis for accurately holding the critical period for the control of blown spot,thus reducing the damage on tobacco leaf and improving the output value of tobacco leaf.
文摘随着“双碳”目标的推进,清洁能源所占比重大幅度增加,分布式光伏发电在我国农村地区快速发展,但其随机性、间歇性的特点给新能源消纳和电网稳定带来很大的挑战。光伏发电预测可以在一定程度上改善新能源消纳问题,减少光伏发电的不稳定性对电网的冲击。因此,为提高光伏发电功率预测精度,提出一种基于改进向量加权平均算法优化CNN-QRGRU网络的光伏发电概率预测方法。首先采用ReliefF算法对特征变量进行选择,在此基础上利用高斯混合模型(Gaussian mixture model,GMM)聚类方法将天气分为晴天、晴转多云和阴雨天3种类型,将处理好的数据输入到CNN-GRU模型中,并利用向量加权平均(weighted mean of vectors algorithm,INFO)优化算法对模型超参数进行调参,将分位数回归模型(quantile regression,QR)与INFO-CNN-GRU模型相结合得到光伏功率条件分布,结合核密度估计法从条件分布中获得概率密度函数,完成概率预测。以实际光伏电站数据作为基础,将提出的INFO优化算法与其他几种传统的优化算法进行对比,结果表明INFO的优化效果更好,在此基础上进行概率预测,得到的概率预测结果相较于点预测能提供更多有效信息,更具有应用价值。
