A PATH-DEPENDENT MODEL OF INVESTMENT AND EMPLOYMENT FLOW IN A LARGE ECONOMY IN A PROCESS OF INTEGRATION

This paper meant to analyze the spatial evolution of a large country in its process of integration with the world economy in general, and, to look into the possible effect of China′s accession into WTO on the future development of its spatial economy in particular. Through an approach of increasing returns, external economy, product differentiation and path-dependence, with foreign trade costs incurred by different regions within the large country discriminated, a model of investment and employment flow is developed as a simulation of a large country′s process of integration with the world economy. The modeling indicates that in the process of integration, as there exist differences in foreign trade costs among different regions within the large country, either the spatial economy of the country deviates from its symmetric structure in autarky and falls into a core-periphery relationship, or the effect of industrial agglomeration is reinforced, amplified and locked in, if the agglomeration had been started. The economic gap on either the aggregate or structural basis between different regions within the large country will increase rapidly as the integration proceeds.

BRI’s Employment Effect on Participating Countries and Mechanism Analysis

Based on the Belt and Road Initiative(BRI)as a quasi-natural experiment,this paper uses panel data from 124 countries between 2006 and 2019 to build a difference-in-differences(DID)model to investigate the BRI employment effect on participating countries and mechanisms.We observed that the BRI had significantly increased employment rates in participating countries,and that this result remained robust after using the instrumental variable(IV)to mitigate endogeneity and perform a robustness test.There are differences in the BRI’s employment effect depending on the income level,labor conditions,and the digital economy’s development level of BRI countries:compared with low-income countries and lower-middle-income countries,the BRI has a more significantly positive effect on the employment rates of upper-middle-income and high-income countries;the BRI’s employment effect is stronger in countries with higher labor market efficiencies and better labor relations;In countries with higher levels of digital economy,the BRI has a relatively greater positive effect on employment.The BRI has increased employment rates in participating countries on both the supply and demand sides by building infrastructure,interconnecting industries and resources,and improving human capital through the exchange of human resources.Further analysis suggests that the BRI’s employment effect promotes the sophistication of participating countries’employment structures,hence improving employment quality,and that participating countries’employment levels may continue to improve in the medium and long run.

Employment and development levels in rural areas of the Russian Federation

The development of agro-industrial complex is important for ensuring national food security and national health.The development of rural areas is subject to the development of agriculture and local infrastructure,as well as the availability of various services.This study selected 15 indicators in 2021 to analyze the employment and development levels in rural areas of 71 regions of the Russian Federation using the analytical grouping method.The results indicated that 20 regions(Group 1)had the highest percentage of rural population(33.10%).The percentage of population engaged in agriculture had the highest value(12.40%)in 31 regions(Group 2).Moreover,20 regions(Group 3)had the highest investments in fixed assets at the expense of municipal budget(11.80 USD/person).Increasing the investments in fixed assets carried out from the budget of the municipality can improve the employment level in rural areas.Then,we used cluster analysis to divide 14 regions of the Volga Federal District in the Russian Federation into 3 clusters.Cluster 1 covered Kirov Region and Republic of Mari El;Cluster 2 included Ulyanovsk Region,Saratov Region,Nizhny Novgorod Region,Perm Territory,Orenburg Region,Chuvash Region,and Republic of Mordovia;and Cluster 3 contained Republic of Tatarstan,Samara Region,Udmurtian Republic,Penza Region,and Republic of Bashkortostan.Results indicated that the 2 regions of Cluster 1 need to increase the availability of resources and natural gas and improve the investment attractiveness of rural areas.The 7 regions of Cluster 2 needed to develop infrastructure,public services,and agricultural production.We found the highest employment level in rural areas,the largest investments in fixed assets at the expense of municipal budget,the largest residential building area per 10,000 persons,and the largest individual residential building area in the 5 regions of Cluster 3.This study makes it possible to draw up a comprehensive regional development program and proves the need for the development of rural areas,which is especially important for the sustainable development of the Russian Federation.

Employment Creation and Investment Attraction by Means of the Internet Portal of Puebla （Mexico） Government

Some transactional governmental services are now offered to citizens world-wide by means of the internet. Principally, these transactions consist of applications for birth certificates, tax payments, payments of fines, however, very rarely, or never can someone incorporate a business by means of e-government services. Rare also, are cases in which the consequences of business incorporation can be evaluated through the internet--for example employment creation or the attraction of investments. With respect to business incorporation the internet portal of the government of the state of Puebla is of no help, since it must be done in person in every case.

The effects of local government investment on economic growth and employment: evidence from transitional China

Based on the panel data of 28 provinces in the year of 1987-2001, this paper examines the effects of the local government investment on economic growth and employment. The empirical result shows that the local government investment plays a significant positive role in economic growth and employment. However, while the proportion of local government investment to GDP had a remarkable rise after 1998, the elasticity of local government investment on economic growth declined, which shows that there is a big room for raising the efficiency of local government investment. Moreover. the empirieal examination shows that although local government investment had positive effect on employment, the elasticity had a decrease after 1994 when the tax-sharing system reform was put into practice. This shows that the positive role of local government investment on employment is also limited This paper argues that the role of local governments as investors must be weakened, and local governments of different levels should lessen direct economic intervention and concentrate on public regulation.

Effects of OFDI on Employment and Skill Upgrading in Its Home Economy

This research empirically examines the relationship between outward foreign direct investment （OFDI） and employment in its home economy. It is marked out from existing studies in the following three respects. First, instead of advanced economies, it focuses on the effect on employment in a newly industrialized economy. Second, it not only addresses the general issue of whether employment or production overseas complements or substitutes for employment in parent companies but also examines how OFDI contributes to skill upgrading in its origin economy, in addition to the quantitative effect. Third, this paper allows the results to vary between labour-intensive industries and technology-intensive industries in order to find the extent to which the home employment effect is moderated by industrial technology intensity. The results demonstrate that the location of investment and industry characteristics matter for explaining the effect of OFDI on home employment. Specifically, we find that while OFDI by Taiwan＇s multinationals in the Chinese mainland depresses employment in Taiwan in both labour- and technology-intensive industries, OFDI in other economies only produces a negative employment effect in technology-intensive sectors. An interesting finding of this study is the evidence of positive effects of OFDI on skill upgrading in Taiwan. This paper supports the argument that relocation of productivity overseas axes low-skilled workers at home. Moreover, OFDI in the Chinese mainland has a particular positive impact on skill upgrading in the home industry, lending support to the view that multinational enterprises （MNEs） outsource labour-intensive goods from their affiliates in low-income economies.

The Importance of Agricultural Development Projects: A Focus on Sustenance and Employment Creation in Kenya, Malawi, Namibia, Rwanda, and Uganda

The paper on the importance of Agricultural Development Projects focuses on different projects implemented in Kenya, Malawi, Namibia, Rwanda, and Uganda. The paper presents the significance of agriculture in these 5 African economies in its ability to provide job opportunities and sustenance. A large portion of the African population in their different countries resides in rural areas and is fully dependent on agriculture for food and income. Subsequently, the development of many developing economies relies heavily on agriculture, the sector is the highest employer in the region with 60 percent of the total labor force being employed in agriculture and agriculture-related sectors such as manufacturing. The success of the sector means that people will have sufficient food, jobs will be created, and standards of living will be improved. The different projects implemented by local governments in the 5 countries and by the development partners have attained plausible results in providing job opportunities, increasing yield, providing food security, and creating a market for small-holder farmers. Despite these remarkable achievements, the agriculture sector in Africa as a whole is faced with many challenges that hinder its success, such as lack of funding, lack of infrastructure, limited land for farming, and climate change. To overcome these challenges and enable the sector to transform, bold policies need to be implemented. This study recommends that African countries create favorable business environments to attract investment, encourage youth participation in agricultural activities, and employ modern farming practices to increase agricultural productivity.

大学生“蹲考族”现象研究:理性人假设的视角

近年来,大学生就业形势日益严峻,越来越多的失业大学生选择了“蹲考”。访谈和问卷调查发现,蹲考族表现为以自愿性蹲考为主、获得家庭支持、期望到体制内单位和大城市或家乡城市就业等特征。从理性人假设的角度来看,蹲考族现象的原因在于蹲考的预期收益大于预期成本。严峻的就业形势降低了蹲考的机会成本,家庭的支持增强了蹲考族对经济成本和心理成本的承受能力;蹲考的预期收益包括更多的就业机会和更高的就业质量。蹲考是失业大学生为了实现预期收益最大化的理性选择,是一种人力资本投资行为,体现了一种自立自强的奋斗精神和人生态度,无法也无必要完全消除。应对蹲考族现象的解决思路在于:提高其考试成功概率,提高大学生就业率和就业质量。

Analysis on Investment Behavior of Agricultural Sector in China

In the process of industrialization, China has been a big agricultural country, and the agricultural sector＇s economic activities have been playing important role in economic growth. This paper established the investment behavior model of agricultural enterprises on the basis of Chinese practice. And then, the model presented the important factors impacting on investment, such as financing cost, wage, and policy factors, etc. Thirdly, this paper in particular used R-studio to estimate the impact of fmancing cost and policy factor on investment and capital accumulation of primary industry sector by gathering the data from 2003 to 2013. The results showed that the official interest rate of loans of financial institutions could be the proxy variable as the financing cost of agricultural enterprises, and the employment level of agricultural enterprises had negative impact on investment. Finally, this paper provided some explanations and suggestions on the basis of above results.

个体与情境因素如何促成员工低频安全违规行为?——基于个体-情境互动理论的组态分析

为了揭示社会人口统计学因素和情境因素之间复杂的交互关系如何促成员工低频安全违规行为,结合组态思想和个体-情境互动理论,采用模糊集定性比较分析(fsQCA)方法分析1294份员工调查数据,探究个体(雇佣形式和性别)和情境(同事安全违规频率、企业安全投入、企业员工规模和行业危险程度)因素构成的不同条件组态对员工低频安全违规行为的影响。研究发现:任何单一因素均不构成员工低频安全违规行为的必要条件。员工低频安全违规行为存在3种不同驱动模式:非高危行业同事低频安全违规模式、高安全投入与同事低频安全违规共驱模式以及非高危行业大型企业高安全投入模式。同事低频安全违规行为在4种组态解中均是实现员工低频安全违规行为的核心条件。本研究引入fsQCA探究个体与情境因素对员工低频安全违规行为的组态效应,不仅拓展了对员工低频安全违规行为驱动模式的理解,还有助于倡导组态方法在行为安全领域的应用。

数字经济与技能工资差距——基于CFPS的微观证据

随着引领新一轮科技革命和产业升级的数字技术发展,数字经济必将对中国的就业和收入分配格局产生重大影响,使技能工资差距呈现新特征。通过测度2018年中国各行业的数字经济发展水平,借助普通最小二乘法、无条件分位数回归与Oaxaca-Blinder分解等方法,考察数字经济发展对技能工资差距的影响及其作用机制。结果发现:(1)数字经济显著提高了低技能劳动者工资收入,且能缩小低技能群体和高技能群体内部中低收入差距;(2)数字经济能通过就业创造效应和时间投入效应为劳动者提供更多就业机会和就业岗位,提高工作强度,缩小技能工资差距,但职位晋升效应难以充分发挥;(3)数字经济对不同行业部门和不同社会资本群体的技能工资差距的影响存在显著的差异性。据此提出继续推进数字技术发展、积极探索数字经济背景下对高收入的规范与调节路径、完善对低技能群体的劳动权益保障体系、加强学习型社会建设,并以数字化改革推动公共服务高质量发展和实现基本公共服务均等化等政策建议。

互联网使用对农户优化生产要素配置的影响——基于CFPS数据的实证分析

本文通过建立一个典型农户模型,从理论上推导互联网使用对农户生产要素配置决策的影响机制,并基于2014—2020年中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据,使用联立方程模型进一步实证检验互联网使用在农户非农就业、土地流转和风险投资方面的作用。研究结果表明,互联网使用对农户生产要素配置决策的影响是逐步递进的,总体而言能够促进农户参与非农就业、土地流转和风险投资,且该影响主要通过提升农户生产组织水平和增加农户信息获取渠道两条途径得以实现。同时,互联网使用对所在地区、经济状况和土地稳定性不同的农户的生产要素配置表现出差异化影响效果,因此可以根据农户各自特征优化其生产要素配置决策,从而改善农户收入状况。

减税激励、企业投资与资本配置效率——来自小微企业的证据

小微企业是我国社会主义市场经济的重要参与主体,在促进经济发展、改善民生、增加就业等方面具有不可替代的作用。本文基于2010—2018年全国税收调查数据,采用双重差分方法,检验了企业所得税减半征收政策对小微企业投资行为的影响。研究表明,所得税减半征收通过增强小微企业的“投资动机”和“投资能力”促进企业固定资产投资的增加,并且所得税减半征收政策对非制造业、未享受政府补助企业和融资约束较强的小微企业投资的促进作用更为明显。进一步分析表明,所得税减半征收政策提升了小微企业的资本配置效率,增强了小微企业吸纳就业的能力,但并未增强小微企业的研发创新能力。总体而言,本文肯定了所得税减半征收政策对小微企业的积极影响,为完善小微企业税收优惠政策、推动经济社会高质量发展提供了有益参考。

企业碳风险、环保资产投资与就业吸纳——来自A股污染类上市企业的经验证据

减污降碳与稳定就业并重,是新时代中国经济发展面临的艰巨任务。本文以沪深A股429家污染类上市企业为研究对象,实证检验污染类企业碳风险、环保资产投资与就业吸纳的关系。研究发现,污染类企业碳风险对企业就业吸纳行为的影响呈先促进后抑制的倒“U”形关系;污染类企业碳风险水平大多位于倒“U”形曲线拐点的左侧,即大多数污染类企业碳风险对企业就业吸纳行为起促进作用;企业环保资产投资在碳风险促进污染类企业就业吸纳的关系中发挥部分中介效应。异质性检验还表明,碳风险对企业就业吸纳的促进作用,以及碳风险与企业就业吸纳的倒“U”形关系,仅体现在重污染企业,而非存在于非重污染企业中。研究结论为中国建立和完善企业环保资产投资的长效激励约束机制,进而推动污染类企业减污降碳和就业吸纳提供了实证依据。

自贸试验区建设对就业水平的影响——来自中国276个地级市的经验证据

本研究基于2004—2019年中国276个地级市数据,利用多期双重差分法探讨自贸试验区建设对就业水平的影响。研究结果显示:自贸试验区的设立显著提高了其所在城市的就业水平,相对于未设立自贸试验区的城市,该政策的推行使自贸试验区所在城市的就业水平平均增加约10.6%。从分区域结果来看,相比于沿海,内地自贸试验区对就业水平的提升作用更加显著;从分时间结果来看,第1批自贸试验区对就业的促进作用更突出,且随着自贸试验区设立时间的推移,其对城市就业水平的影响逐渐减弱。机制分析结果显示:自贸试验区的设立通过增加外资流入、促进产业结构高级化2个维度提高当地就业水平。

数字普惠金融、健康人力资本投资与高质量就业

高质量就业是践行新发展理念的内在要求,提升就业质量、挖掘新动能是其重要内容。基于我国省际面板数据,对数字普惠金融、健康人力资本投资与高质量就业之间的关系进行实证检验,研究发现:数字普惠金融具有正向就业质量效应,其中数字化程度、覆盖广度和使用深度对高质量就业的影响呈逐层递进的关系;健康人力资本投资无论在数字普惠金融总体还是在其次级的三个维度上都表现出积极的中介效应;数字普惠金融就业效应与健康人力资本投资的中介效应具有区域异质性,对促进西部地区高质量就业效果显著。鉴于此,应当有差异性地深化数字普惠金融发展,加大健康人力资本投资,多维度推动数字创新战略实施,形成区域协调联动发展格局,促进高质量就业。

“一带一路”投资中海外劳工雇佣的文化掣肘与法律应对

从中资企业市场准入和平稳发展的角度出发,中资企业雇佣“一带一路”项目建设地员工有其必要性。但“人是社会人、情感人、文化人,人的属性是社会性的,人是有社会文化需求的。”[1]145不同文化的碰撞必然导致冲突。根据霍夫斯坦德对文化结构形式的四种分类理论,在“一带一路”投资中,招聘和管理海外劳工不可避免地会遭遇来自于物质文化、制度文化、行为文化和心态文化四个方面的文化掣肘。西方国家的联合制裁和抹黑,部分国家现代化社会的法治能力和意识的欠缺,民族多元性以及“一带一路”沿线各国复杂多样的宗教文化是造成掣肘的主要原因。应从国际法、国内法和公司内部规章制度三个方面来防范和应对中资企业在海外劳工过程中遭遇的文化掣肘。以期在有法可依的前提下采用事前防范、事中协调和事后止损的全程管理方式来舒缓海外投资的文化风险。

数字金融、企业投资行为与就业技能结构升级

实现更充分和更高质量就业关系着民生问题,也关系着共同富裕目标的实现。文章使用2011至2019年非金融类上市企业样本探讨了数字金融对企业投资行为和就业技能结构的影响,并进一步剖析了投资行为在“数字金融—就业技能结构升级”中发挥的作用。研究发现,数字金融发展推动了就业技能结构升级。机制检验结果表明,数字金融发展显著提升了高技能劳动力雇佣规模,研发投资对劳动力雇佣存在“扩容提质”效应,固定资产投资的劳动力雇佣“扩容”效应主要通过提高低技能劳动力雇佣规模实现。此外,数字金融、企业投资行为对就业技能结构升级的影响因劳动者保护制度存在异质性。由此,引导企业“脱虚向实”是“稳就业”的重要抓手,缓解大学生就业困境的关键在于激励企业研发创新。

灵活用工模式与企业研发投入——来自雇主-雇员匹配调查的证据

激励企业扩大研发投入对提升国家创新能力具有重要意义。利用“中国雇主—雇员匹配调查”数据,从用工模式视角考察灵活用工模式对企业研发投入强度的影响及其作用机制。实证研究发现:灵活用工模式对企业研发投入强度具有抑制效应;从劳动力要素配置角度来看,企业人力资本水平下降是造成灵活用工模式抑制企业研发投入强度的重要机制;扩大企业规模以及增强企业工会劳动保护效果均可以削弱灵活用工模式对企业研发投入强度的抑制效应。研究结论不仅有助于深化关于用工模式与企业创新关系的认识,而且为创新研发投入决策理论以及优化创新驱动发展战略的实施路径提供了经验参考。

ESG改善对企业劳动投资效率的提升作用研究

企业ESG表现的改善,能够强化内部控制,优化信息环境,进而可以通过缓解委托代理冲突和加强外部监督来提高劳动投资决策的科学性和有效性,实现劳动投资效率的提升。采用沪深A股上市公司2009—2022年的数据分析发现:ESG表现改善可以显著提升企业的劳动投资效率,该结论在经过缓解内生性、变量处理、排除非劳动投资影响等一系列稳健性检验后依然成立;ESG表现改善主要通过优化企业的雇佣行为来提升劳动投资效率,即以减少雇佣(而非增加解雇)的方式抑制劳动投资过度,以增加雇佣(而非减少解雇)的方式缓解劳动投资不足;ESG表现改善能够通过降低代理成本和提高分析师预测质量两条路径来提高企业劳动投资效率,并对信息披露质量较高的企业和劳动密集度较高的企业具有更为显著的劳动投资效率提升效应。因此,企业应积极增加ESG投资,并通过提高自身的信息披露质量促进分析师预测质量提升,通过降低代理成本减少非效率劳动投资行为,以有效提升劳动投资效率。