Tackling China’s Pension Fund Payment Crisis:Will the “Two-Child Policy” Be the Answer?——An example with the basic pension insurance program for urban employees

Based on the reality that 29 Chinese provinces have already implemented the policy allowing a couple to raise a second child if either parent is an only child, this paper provides an empirical study on the effect of this policy on the financial status of the social pooling fund of basic pension insurance for urban employees. Our study suggests the followings. First, under the previous unchanged family planning policy, current deficits and cumulative deficits will occur in the social pooling fund in the year 2047 and 2063 respectively. Second, if lO% to 50% of qualified couples choose to raise a second child, the financial status of the social pooling fund will improve; relative to the previous unchanged family planning policy, the contribution ratio can decrease from 20% to the range between 18.06% and 19.57% without causing any changes to the original financial status of income and expenditure. Third, if the percentage of couples choosing to raise a second child rises to 60% to 100%, the contribution ratio can even decrease to the range between 16.55% and 17. 7% without causing any changes to the financial status as under the previous unchanged family planning policy. The above conclusions have all passed the sensitivity test. Therefore, the ＂two-child policy＂ for qualified couples is favorable to alleviating the payment pressures of pension insurance but the policy effectiveness is subject to fertility desire and the intensity of government implementation.

Seizures Related to Two-child Policy:A Case Report

From 1979 to 2012,the Chinese government implemented the one-child policy to control population growth.In 2013,families in which either parent was the only one child were allowed to apply for a second child.In 2016,China’s universal two-child policy was finally imposed.As such,many children who had always been the center of their family’s universe due to the unique family structure stemming from the one-child policy era became elder siblings during their adolescence.We report a case of a 9-year-old girl who developed seizures after the birth of her younger sister.The combination of clinical observation,laboratory examinations,and video-electroencephalography was not enough to make a confident diagnosis of epilepsy initially.Given her patient history and follow-up investigation,we speculated the two-child policy was related to her seizures.To our knowledge,this is the first report of seizures strongly related to the two-child policy.

The Influence of the Two-child Policy on Urbanization in China

Family planning has been China's basic national policy since 1980, but it changed from a onechild policy to a two-child policy at the end of 2015 as which will further stimulate the rapid growth of China's population and have a profound impact on the population structure and land use in China. Based on the forecast of total population change in national and provincial dimensions after the two -child policy, the paper forecasted the spatial pattern of China's population and provincial differentiation over the next 15 years, and discussed the far-reaching impact on the future urban and rural land use and planning. Conclusions as follows: the two-child policy will achieve rapid population growth in the next 5 years, then there will be a stable growth phase;the peak of China's population increase will occur in 2030 with a total population of about 1.55 billion people, which will continue the regional differentiation of urbanization, and urbanization level in southeastern region will remain generally higher than that of the northwest. In addition, population growth brings new demands in urban and rural construction land, therefore, more intensive use of land will be the inevitable choice for the future development for China.

Study on the Influence of the the Universal Two-childPolicy on China＇s Pension Payment

In the face of the continuous decline in the birth rate and the aging of the peak of aging, following the implementation of the ＂Decision of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on Comprehensively Deepening the Reform of Some Major Issues＂ adopted by the Filth Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee on November 15, 2013, the party is the only child. Female couples can have a policy of giving birth to two children. On October 29, 2015, China introduced the ＂two-child policy＂, completely replacing the ＂one-child policy＂ that has been implemented in China for more than 30 years. The ＂two-child comprehensive＂ can alleviate the unfavorable population trend that plagues China＇s social security system to a certain extent. Optimize the age structure of the population and increase the supply of labor. However, for a long time, the financial distress and management dilemma faced by China＇s pension payment still exist, and the loose population birth policy will have a great impact on reducing pension payment, and will gradually appear in the policy implementation. This article combines the ＂comprehensive two-child＂ policy, focusing on the role of the new population birth policy to alleviate the pressure on China＇s pension.

A Study of the Universal Two-child Policy’s Impact on China’s Future Population

The most essential step in adjusting and improving the childbearing policy, the universal two-child policy will produce far-reaching impacts on the future development of China’s population. With its implementation, the country’s total population will peak later, the underage population and its proportion will increase substantially, the working-age population will experience a slower decline, and the aging of China’s population will be eased. However, the drop in the proportion of working-age people over the last 15 years has expedited the reduction of the demographic dividend, the elderly population will remain unaffected over the next 60 years, the aging of the population will continue to deepen, and at the same time, the increased child dependency burden will expand the overall dependency ratio.

The employment impact analysis of Full-scale two-child policy for career women

With the development of China＇s childbearing policy changes in recent years, it causes effects to women＇s social life. Based on the questionnaire survey of influencing factors about professional women＇s intention of second child birth and with two child policy was carry out as the background, summed up the three major factors influencing the working women fertility fertility intention, emotional factors and external security. At the same time using the structural equation model, studies the impact of the influence factors to the career development of working women. The conclusion is that childbearing willing has little effects on the professional women in Shanghai, emotional factors and external security has certain impact on women＇ s employment.

Effects of the New Two-child Policy On Family Old-age Security

This paper analyzes the current situation of the aging population and low fertility rate.lt is found that the aging process is accelerated, the population growth potential is decreased, and the elderly dependency ratio is higher.Secondly, this paper mainly analyzes the impact of the new two-child policy on family pension security from three aspects： population policy, family support and social security.There are two aspects of the effects, the positive effects are：improve fertility, reduce elderly dependency ratio, relieve population aging,enhance the family development： the negative effects are： tremendous pressure on public resources, further inequality in birth right, heavy economic pressure on the family.At last. this paper puts forward the constructive countermeasures against the problems of the policy and the was out of the family old-age security.

中国高等教育政策网络演进:从资源获取到功能实现的跃迁

通过对1980—2024年607份高等教育领域相关政策文件中的多个政策主体协同所形成的政策网络进行社会网络分析,重点研究整体网络和个体网络并进行可视化,以期更全面地理解不同政策主体在高等教育发展过程中的相互关系,为高等教育政策的制定和调整提供科学依据。研究表明:高等教育政策网络现处于第二层次向第三层次转型时期,即从资源获取阶段逐步过渡到功能实现阶段;高等教育政策网络规模呈现跨越式增长,结构呈现动态复杂变化特征;高等教育政策网络主体呈现“主副核心”共存,核心间构成紧密“铁三角”关系;教育部核心职能尚未完全发挥,相关产业部门参与度与协同作用有待加强。未来,在保持教育部作为“主核心”部门的引领地位的基调上,教育部可与相关产业部门建立定期对话机制,或鼓励教育部与产业部门之间的人员交流,积极培育位于政策网络边缘的创新型机构或组织,构建“核心-边缘”的创新网络,并加强与国际组织和其他国家的政策交流与合作,以此加快高等教育政策网络转型为功能实现层次,促进我国高等教育发展。

总体国家安全观与中国刑法发展

新时代背景下,刑法学价值存在从侧重自由保障到自由与安全二元价值并重的转型需要,应当以总体国家安全观重塑刑法的价值需求,推进自由与安全二元价值在刑法中的融合。犯罪学实践范式具有消极性、滞后性,难以承担引领刑法学研究的理论重担,应当以总体国家安全观重构刑法的实践范式,重视具有积极性、前瞻性的国家安全学实践范式对刑法学发展的指引作用。以总体国家安全观为引领,一要调整刑事政策,坚持刑事政策发展的系统性导向;二要强化安全的刑法保障,以人民安全为理论根基促进刑事立法的民主化和科学化发展;三要激发刑事司法机能化,推进刑事司法在个人、社会、国家三重安全面向的机能性构建。

“双减”背景下校外教育的价值与发展路径

当前,我国教育正处于提质增效、由高向强转变的关键时期,需要破解教育高质量发展的难题,“双减”改革给校外教育带来了新的机遇和挑战。校外教育作为大教育格局中的重要一环,是教育高质量发展的重要突破口,具有实践性强、开放性强、包容性强、黏合性强等特点,对教育生态重构有着不可替代的影响。因此,应重新审视校外教育的价值与作用,形成广泛共识,在教育大格局中推动校外教育的新发展:坚持以德为先,落实立德树人根本任务,将社会主义核心价值观融入校外教育全过程;以儿童为本,加强综合素质教育,提升儿童自我服务和实践能力,促进儿童全面发展;强化校外教育与家庭教育、学校教育的有机衔接,打造家校社协同育人的国民教育体系。

面向国家认同的审美教育

国家认同教育是现代民族国家建设的重要保障,也是个体与国家关联,获得生命意义的重要途径。审美教育具有情感激活、形象表征、动态实践属性,是治理审美乱象,培育国家认同的重要感性教育路径。我国审美教育在形塑国家认同中具有丰富的历史经验:古代以礼乐文化建立天下秩序;现代探索中国与世界美学文化结合以建立民族国家;当代形成了以中华民族伟大复兴为使命的中国特色美育方案。立足新时代,审美教育要塑造国家记忆,激活中华民族共同体意识;展示国家形象,推进国家认同的美育实践;凸显以美育人,培育自信自强的中国人,从而发挥美育在培育国家认同中的感性教育力量。

文化安全的议题分析、逻辑架构与未来展望

“文化安全”研究随着社会实践的发展不断丰富。首先回顾文化安全的概念演变、涉及领域等。其次通过学术文献、国家政策以及文化实践进行评述分析,发现当前文化安全研究主要集中于文化安全的时代内涵与表征、文化自信与文化安全、文化安全与文化发展政策、文化安全与国家安全等四个议题。通过对议题及其内容和逻辑的梳理,进一步阐述文化安全研究的逻辑架构,即文化安全双重价值逻辑、内外政策导向、治理实现路径。最后,基于议题和逻辑架构分析,提出未来应着眼于新时代背景下文化资源安全问题、总体观视角下文化生态安全问题、多学科视域下文化安全研究方法创新以及新技术语境下文化安全问题研究。

职教高考制度的发展困境与突破

我国的职教高考制度在发展中面临一系列困境,包括国家与省域之间的权责划分不清、试题设计的专业性与公共性之间的矛盾、不同层级的职业教育之间尚未建立有效的教学衔接等问题。为了克服这些困境,需要采取一系列策略,如建立专业教师团队来提高专业试题的设计,优化教学阶段以增强教学针对性,坚持省级统筹并建立多主体联合育人的管理体制。这些策略有助于提高职教高考的质量和效益,为学生提供更好的职业发展机会,促进我国的职业教育体系的持续改进。政府、学校、行业和社会组织需要共同努力,以确保这些策略成功实施,推动职教高考制度发展和突破。

The influence of Chinese population policy change on resources and the environment

Universal two-child policy has been implemented since the end of 2015 in China.This policy is anticipated to bring a significant increase in the total population,with profound influences on the resources and environment in the future.This paper analyzes the changing dynamics of urban and rural population,and forecasts urban and rural population from 2016 to 2030 at national and provincial scale using a double log linear regression model.Drawing upon the results of these two predictions,the impact of the population policy change on Chinese resources consumption and environmental pollution are predicted quantitatively.Given the future total population maintains current levels on resources consumption and environmental emission,the additional demand of resources and environment demand for the new population is forecasted and compared against the capacity on supply side.The findings are as follows:after implementing the universal two-child policy,China's grain,energy consumption,domestic water demand,and pollutant emissions are projected to increase at different rates across provinces.To meet the needs arising from future population growth,food and energy self-sufficiency rate will be significantly reduced in the future,while relying more on imports.Stability of the water supply needs to be improved,especially in Beijing,Henan,Jiangsu,Qinghai,and Sichuan where the gap in future domestic water demand is comparatively larger.Environmental protection and associated governing capability are in urgent need of upgrade not least due to the increasing pressure of pollution.

新时代党解决台湾问题的总体方略之系统观念解析

新时代党解决台湾问题的总体方略的提出,为推进祖国统一指明了正确的方向。贯彻落实总体方略,不能以孤立的、片面的、静止的思维方式看待台湾问题,而应以普遍的、整体的、发展的系统观念思考、谋划、推进祖国的完全统一。系统观念要求我们将解决台湾问题置于实现中华民族伟大复兴的历史逻辑和世界百年未有之大变局的战略全局之中,用马克思主义的世界观和方法论把握总体方略的核心要义和科学内涵,推动对台工作高质量发展。

新时代党解决台湾问题总体方略之核心内涵及其实践路径初探

实现祖国完全统一,是中国共产党矢志不渝的历史任务。新时代党解决台湾问题的总体方略,是党的十八大以来对台工作守正创新最重要的理论成果和智慧结晶,也是我们在全面建设社会主义现代化国家新征程上做好对台工作的根本遵循和行动指南。我们应该在新时代党解决台湾问题的总体方略的指引下,保持战略定力,持续推动两岸关系和平发展、融合发展,以坚定意志、坚强决心和强大能力,反对外来干涉和遏制“台独”,牢牢把握两岸关系发展的主导权和主动权。强大能力来自祖国日益增长的硬实力和软实力,其中,军事实力是落实新时代党解决台湾问题总体方略最坚实的保障。

俄乌冲突下全球粮食安全与新时期中国粮食安全政策选择

粮食安全是治国安邦的头等大事,2022年中央农村工作会议指出“保障粮食和重要农产品稳定安全供给是建设农业强国的头等大事”。持续紧张的俄乌冲突导致全球粮食供给趋紧、需求和价格双升,粮食安全恐慌席卷全球,全球经济发展出现新的不确定性和变局。虽然短期内中国粮食市场受俄乌冲突的影响相对较小,但从长期来看,粮食进口成本攀升、市场结构性矛盾、贸易格局失衡和生物质能抢粮等,给中国粮食市场安全和农业强国发展带来新的挑战和风险。由于粮食生产具有周期性,供给和价格冲击容易诱发粮食市场系统性风险,导致政策调控失效和市场失灵。面对严峻的粮食安全局势,应统筹协调内外部关系,发挥宏观调控能力,防范和化解外部冲击的风险和威胁;以科技创新和法制保障,促进农业资源禀赋优势转化,全面增强粮食安全自主掌控力和粮食安全治理能力。

融合特征词与PMC指数模型的中美信息安全政策比较研究

[目的/意义]信息安全是总体国家安全观的重要组成部分,通过对比分析中美两国信息安全政策,为我国信息安全政策的制定提供有益借鉴,对完善国家安全政策体系有重要的战略意义。[方法/过程]融合特征词与PMC指数模型,利用文本挖掘抽取特征词,凝练PMC指数模型的一、二级指标,构建PMC指数模型,结合PMC指数计算结果和PMC曲面图对中美两国同类型的信息安全政策进行对比分析。[结果/结论]中美两国信息安全政策设计合理,两国均注重政策功能性、数字化、互联网以及个人隐私保护方面的制定,但政策类型丰富程度有待加强,政策内部一致性有待完善。我国在政策工具的使用方面优于美国,美国在政策对象的覆盖方面相对完善。据此,提出我国的信息安全政策整体优化路径X6→X3→X1:完善顶层设计,丰富政策类型;扩大政策对象面向范围,加强主体互动;统一立法标准,增强立法科学性。

双碳背景下扶持政策对物流行业上市公司综合效率的影响研究——基于DEA-Tobit模型

我国正处于碳达峰关键期,物流企业作为降碳发展的重要对象,其绿色转型期间的综合效率受到一系列国家政策的影响。文中运用15家物流行业上市公司2017-2021年的面板数据,评估出决策单元的效率值,以技术效率、纯技术效率、规模效率为因变量,双碳背景下的扶持政策为自变量,建立DEA-Tobit模型,探究其对物流行业上市公司综合效率的影响。研究结果表明:这15家物流行业上市公司在实施扶持政策后综合效率上升且趋于平稳状态。营业外收入、地区环境污染治理总额和销售毛利率对于企业的综合效率均有促进作用,其中,营业外收入和销售毛利率为显著影响,研发投入对企业的综合效率有轻微抑制作用。据此提出扶持政策对于物流上市企业综合效率的影响机制和进一步的对策与建议,为物流行业低碳发展提供理论基础。