Global influenza in cold phase of Pacific Decade Oscillation

Based on the study of the cold phase of the Pacific Decade Oscillation, pandemic influenza is related to climate. The relation of low temperature, Pacific Decade Oscillation, strongest earthquake, Influenza, hurricane and E1 Nino is researched in this study. In the cold period of Pacific Decade Oscillation, the strongest earthquake, hurricane with La Ni＇na, Pandemic Influenza with E1 Nino will occur stronger and stronger. From 1950 to 1976, the strongest dust-storm is connected with Pandemic Influenza one by one. So, dust-storm is one of factors to spread pandemic influenza viruses.

ENSO Frequency Asymmetry and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation in Observations and 19 CMIP5 Models

Using observational data and the pre-industrial simulations of 19 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5（CMIP5）, the El Ni o（EN） and La Ni a（LN） events in positive and negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation（PDO） phases are examined. In the observational data, with EN（LN） events the positive（negative） SST anomaly in the equatorial eastern Pacific is much stronger in positive（negative） PDO phases than in negative（positive） phases. Meanwhile,the models cannot reasonably reproduce this difference. Besides, the modulation of ENSO frequency asymmetry by the PDO is explored. Results show that, in the observational data, EN is 300% more（58% less） frequent than LN in positive（negative）PDO phases, which is significant at the 99% confidence level using the Monte Carlo test. Most of the CMIP5 models exhibit results that are consistent with the observational data.

Phase Transition of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and Decadal Variation of the East Asian Summer Monsoon in the 20th Century

This paper focuses on the relationship between the phase transition of the Pacific decadal oscillation （PDO） and decadal variation of the East Asian summer monsoon （EASM） in the twentieth century. The first transition occurred in the 1940s, with an enhanced SST in the North Pacific and reduced SST in the tropical eastern Pacific and South Indian Ocean. In agreement with these SST changes, a higher SLP was found in most parts of the Pacific, while a lower SLP was found in the North Pacific and most parts of the Indian Ocean. In this case, the EASM was largely enhanced with a southerly anomaly in the lower troposphere along the east coast of China. Correspondingly, there was less rainfall in the Yangtze River valley and more rainfall in northern and southern China. An opposite change was found when the PDO reversed its phase in the late 1970s. In the tropical Indian Ocean and western Pacific, however, the SST was enhanced in both the 1940s and 1970s. As a result, the western Pacific subtropical high （WPSH） tended to extend westward with a larger magnitude in the 1970s. The major features were reasonably reproduced by an atmospheric general circulation model （IAP AGCM4.0） prescribed with observed SST and sea ice. On the other hand, the westward extension of the WPSH was exaggerated in the 1970s, while it was underestimated in the 1940s. Besides, the spatial pattern of the simulated summer rainfall in eastern China tended to shift southward compared with the observation.

The Impact of Global Warming on the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the Possible Mechanism

The response of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation （PDO） to global warming according to the Fast Ocean Atmosphere Model （FOAM） and global warming comparison experiments of 11 IPCC AR4 models is investigated. The results show that North Pacific ocean decadal variability, its dominant mode （i.e., PDO）, and atmospheric decadal variability, have become weaker under global warming, but with PDO shifting to a higher frequency. The SST decadal variability reduction maximum is shown to be in the subpolar North Pacific Ocean and western North Pacific （PDO center）. The atmospheric decadal variability reduction maximum is over the PDO center. It was also found that oceanic baroclinic Rossby waves play a key role in PDO dynamics, especially those in the subpolar ocean. As the frequency of ocean buoyancy increases under a warmer climate, oceanic baroclinic Rossby waves become faster, and the increase in their speed ratio in the high latitudes is much larger than in the low latitudes. The faster baroclinic Rossby waves can cause the PDO to shift to a higher frequency, and North Pacific decadal variability and PDO to become weaker.

Response of Growing Season Gross Primary Production to El Nino in Different Phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation over Eastern China Based on Bayesian Model Averaging

Gross primary production(GPP) plays a crucial part in the carbon cycle of terrestrial ecosystems.A set of validated monthly GPP data from 1957 to 2010 in 0.5°× 0.5° grids of China was weighted from the Multi-scale Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project using Bayesian model averaging(BMA).The spatial anomalies of detrended BMA GPP during the growing seasons of typical El Nino years indicated that GPP response to El Nino varies with Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO) phases: when the PDO was in the cool phase,it was likely that GPP was greater in northern China(32°–38°N,111°–122°E) and less in the Yangtze River valley(28°–32°N,111°–122°E);in contrast,when PDO was in the warm phase,the GPP anomalies were usually reversed in these two regions.The consistent spatiotemporal pattern and high partial correlation revealed that rainfall dominated this phenomenon.The previously published findings on how El Nino during different phases of PDO affecting rainfall in eastern China make the statistical relationship between GPP and El Nino in this study theoretically credible.This paper not only introduces an effective way to use BMA in grids that have mixed plant function types,but also makes it possible to evaluate the carbon cycle in eastern China based on the prediction of El Nino and PDO.

Twentieth-century Pacific Decadal Oscillation simulated by CMIP5 coupled models

The authors examine the spatial and temporal characteristics of the simulated Pacific Decadal Oscillation （PDO） in 109 historical （i.e. all forcings） simulations derived from 25 coupled models within CMIPS. Compared with observations, most simulations successfully simulate the observed PDO pattern and its teleconnections to the SSTs in the tropical and southern Pacific. BNU-ESM, CanESM2, CCSM4, CESM 1 -FASTCHEM, FGOALS-g2, GFDL CM3, MIROCS, and NorESM 1 -M show better performance. Compared with the temporal phases of the observed PDO in the twentieth century, only five simulations -- from CNRM^CMS, CSIRO Mk3o6.0, HadCM3, and IPSL-CMSA-LR -- simulate an evolution of the PDO similar to that derived from observation, which suggests that current coupled models can barely reproduce the observed phase shifting of the PDO. To capture characteristics of the observed PDO in the twentieth century, a requirement is that all the relevant external forcings are included in the models. How to add realistic oceanic initial states into the model may be another key point.

Influence of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation on regional sea level rise in the Pacific Ocean from 1993 to 2012

The rate of regional sea level rise （SLR） provides important information about the impact of human activities on climate change. However, accurate estimation of regional SLR can be severely affected by sea surface height （SSH） change caused by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation （PDO-SSH）. Here, the PDO- SSH signal is extracted from satellite altimeter data by multi-variable linear regression, and regional SLR in the altimeter era is calculated, before and after removing that signal. The results show that PDO-SSH trends are rising in the western Pacific and falling in the eastern Pacific, with the strongest signal confined to the tropical and North Pacific. Over the past 20 years, the PDO-SSH accounts for about 30%/-400% of altimeter-observed SLR in the regions 8° 15°N, 130°-160°E and 30°-40°N, 170°-220°E. Along the coast ＆North America, the PDO-SSH signal dramatically offsets the coastal SLR, as the sea level trends change sign from falling to rising.

Potential Correlation between the Decadal East Asian Summer Monsoon Variability and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation

This study discusses the potential contribution of the Pacific decadal oscillation(PDO)to the weakening of the East Asian summer monsoon(EASM)and the evident correlation between the positive PDO and"Southern flood and Northern drought(SFND)"summer rainfall pattern over East China.The mechanism behind this contribution is also discussed.

Response of Japanese anchovy(Engraulis japonicus)to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation in the Yellow Sea over the past 400 a

Quantitative identification of long-term changes in the abundance of Japanese anchovy(Engraulis japonicus)in the Yellow Sea is particularly important for understanding evolutionary processes of the Yellow Sea ecosystem.Unfortunately,the driving mechanisms of climate variability on the anchovy are still unclear due to the lack of long-term observational data.In this study,we used the fish scale deposition rate in the central Yellow Sea to reconstruct the time series of the anchovy stock over the past 400 a.On this basis,we further explored the impacts of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO)on the anchovy.Our results show that the anchovy stock is positively correlated with the PDO on a decadal time scale.In addition,anchovy abundance was relatively high during1620–1860 AD(the Little Ice Age,LIA),though in a state of constant fluctuation;anchovy abundance maintained at a relatively low level after~1860 AD.In particular,followed by overfishing since the 1980 s,the anchovy stock has declined sharply.Based on these findings,we infer that fluctuations of the anchovy stock may be regulated by basin-scale“atmosphere–ocean”interactions.Nevertheless,the role of overfishing should not be ignored.

Precipitation Regime Shift Associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation in the Maritime Continent

Recent changes in precipitation regime in South-East Asia are a subject of ongoing discussion. In this article, for the first time, evidence of a precipitation regime shift during the mid-1970s in the Northern Hemispheric part of South-East Asia is demonstrated. The detection of regime shifts is made possible by using a new comprehensive dataset of daily precipitation records (South-East Asian Climate Assessment and Dataset) and applying a novel Bayesian approach for regime shift detection. After the detected regime shift event in the mid-1970s, significant changes in precipitation distribution occurred in the Northern Hemispheric regions—Indochina Peninsula and the Philippines. More specifically, dry days became up to 10% more frequent in some regions. However, no precipitation regime shift is detected in Southern Hemisphere regions—Java and Northern Australia, were the number of observed dry days increased gradually.

CMIP 6 models simulation of the connection between North/South Pacific Meridional Mode and ENSO

The subtropical North and South Pacific Meridional Modes(NPMM and SPMM)are well known precursors of El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO).However,relationship between them is not constant.In the early 1980,the relationship experienced an interdecadal transition.Changes in this connection can be attributed mainly to the phase change of the Pacific decadal oscillation(PDO).During the positive phase of PDO,a shallower thermocline in the central Pacific is responsible for the stronger trade wind charging(TWC)mechanism,which leads to a stronger equatorial subsurface temperature evolution.This dynamic process strengthens the connection between NPMM and ENSO.Associated with the negative phase of PDO,a shallower thermocline over southeastern Pacific allows an enhanced wind-evaporation-SST(WES)feedback,strengthening the connection between SPMM and ENSO.Using 35 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)models,we examined the NPMM/SPMM performance and its connection with ENSO in the historical runs.The great majority of CMIP6 models can reproduce the pattern of NPMM and SPMM well,but they reveal discrepant ENSO and NPMM/SPMM relationship.The intermodal uncertainty for the connection of NPMM-ENSO is due to different TWC mechanism.A stronger TWC mechanism will enhance NPMM forcing.For SPMM,few models can simulate a good relationship with ENSO.The intermodel spread in the relationship of SPMM and ENSO owing to SST bias in the southeastern Pacific,as WES feedback is stronger when the southeastern Pacific is warmer.

Joint Propagating Patterns of SST and SLP Anomalies in the North Pacific on Bidecadal and Pentadecadal Timescales

Wavelet analyses are applied to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation index and North Pacific index for the period 1900-2000, which identifies two dominant interdecadal components, the bidecadal (15-25-yr) and pentadecadal (50 70-yr) modes. Joint propagating patterns of sea surface temperature (SST) and sea level pressure (SLP) anomalies in the North Pacific for the two modes are revealed by using the techniques of multi-channel singular spectrum analysis (MSSA) and linear regression analysis with the global sea surface temperature (GISST) data and the northern hemispheric SLP data for the common period 1903 1998. Significant differences in spatio-temporal structures are found between the two modes. For the bidecadal mode, SST anomalies originating from the Gulf of Alaska appear to slowly spread southwestward, inducing a reversal of early SST anomalies in the central North Pacific. Due to further westward spreading, the SST variation of the central North Pacific leads that of the Kuroshio-Oyashio Extension (KOE) region by approximately 4 to 5 years. Concomitantly, SLP anomalies spread over most parts of the North Pacific during the mature phase and then change into an NPO(North Pacific Oscillation)-like pattern during the transition phase. For the pentadecadal mode, SST anomalies develop in the southeast tropical Pacific and propagate along the North American coast to the mid-latitudes; meanwhile, SST anomalies with the same polarity in the western tropical Pacific expand northward to Kuroshio and its extension region; both merge into the central North Pacific reversing the sign of early SST anomalies there. Accompanying SLP anomalies are characterized by an NPO-like pattern during the mature phase while they are dominant over the North Pacific during the transitional phase. The bidecadal and pentadecadal modes have different propagating patterns, suggesting that the two interdecadal modes may arise from different physical mechanisms.

On the Decadal and Interdecadal Variability in the Pacific Ocean

The Pacific decadal and interdecadal oscillation (PDO) has been extensively explored in recent decades because of its profound impact on global climate systems. It is a long-lived ENSO-like pattern of Pacific climate variability with a period of 10-30 years. The general picture is that the anomalously warm (cool) SSTs in the central North Pacific are always accompanied by the anomalously cool (warm) SSTs along the west coast of America and in the central east tropical Pacific with comparable amplitude. In general, there are two classes of opinions on the origin of this low-frequency climate variability, one thinking that it results from deterministically coupled modes of the Pacific ocean-atmosphere system, and the other, from stochastic atmospheric forcing. The deterministic origin emphasizes that the internal physical processes in an air-sea system can provide a positive feedback mechanism to amplify an initial perturbation, and a negative feedback mechanism to reverse the phase of oscillation. The dynamic evolution of ocean circulation determines the timescale of the oscillation. The stochastic origin, however, emphasizes that because the atmospheric activities can be thought as having no preferred timescale and are associated with an essentially white noise spectrum, tne ocean response can manifest a red peak in a certain low frequency range with a decadal to interdecadal timescale. In this paper, the authors try to systematically understand the state of the art of observational, theoretical and numerical studies on the PDO and hope to provide a useful background reference for current research.

Possible Origins of the Western Pacific Warm Pool Decadal Variability

In this study, the impacts of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation （PDO） and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation （AMO） on the western Pacific warm pool （WPWP） were investigated. Our results show that the WPWP is linked with the PDO and the AMO at multiple time scales. On the seasonal time scales, the WPWP and the PDO/AMO reinforce each other, while at decadal time scales the forcing roles of the PDO and the AMO dominate. Notably, a positive PDO tends to enlarge the WPWP at both seasonal and decadal time scales, while a positive AMO tends to reduce the WPWP at decadal time scales. Furthermore, the decadal variability of the WPWP can be well predicted based on the PDO and AMO.

Dynamic Mechanism of Interannual Sea Surface Height Variability in the North Pacific Subtropical Gyre

In this study, the dynamic mechanisms of interannual sea surface height （SSH） variability are investigated based on the first-mode baroclinic Rossby wave model, with a focus on the effects of different levels of wind stress curl （WSC）. Maximum covariance analysis （MCA） of WSC and SSH anomalies displays a mode with significant WSC anomalies located primarily in the mid-latitude eastern North Pacific and central tropical Pacific with corresponding SSH anomalies located to the west. This leading mode can be attributed to Ekman pumping induced by local wind stress and the westward-propagating Rossby wave driven by large- scale wind stress. It is further found that in the middle latitudes, the SSH anomalies are largely determined by WSC variations associated with the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation （NPGO）, rather than the Pacific Decadal Oscillation （PDO）. The sensitivity of the predictive skill of the linear first-mode baroclinic model to different wind products is also examined.

Response of North Pacific and North Atlantic decadal variability to weak global warming

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation （PDO） and the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability （AMV） are the two dominant low-frequency modes in the climate system. This research focused on the response of these two modes under weak global warming. Observational data were derived from the Hadley Center Sea Ice and Sea Surface Temperature dataset （HadISST） and coupled model outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 （CMIP5）. Changes in PDO and AMV were examined using four models （bcc-csml-1, CCSM4, IPSL-CM5A-LR, and MPI- ESM-LR） with long weak global warming scenarios （RCP2.6）. These models captured the two low-frequency modes in both pre-industrial run and RCP2.6 run. Under weak global warming, the time scales of PDO and AMV significantly decreased while the amplitude only slightly decreased. Interestingly, the standard deviation of the North Pacific sea surface temperature anomaly （SSTA） decreased only in decadal time scale, and that of the North Atlantic SSTA decreased both in interannual and decadal time scales. The coupled system consists of a slow ocean component, which has a decadal time scale, and a fast atmospheric component, which is calculated by subtracting the decadal from the total. Results suggest that under global warming, PDO change is dominated by ocean dynamics, and AMV change is dominated by ocean dynamics and stochastic atmosphere forcing.

Teleconnection between Winter Arctic Oscillation and Southeast Asian Summer Monsoon in the Pre-Industry Simulation of a Coupled Climate Model

A 600-year pre-industrial simulation with Bergen Climate Model(BCM)Version 2 is used to investigate the linkage between winter Arctic Oscillation(AO)and the Southeast Asian summer monsoon(SEASM)on the inter-decadal timescale.The results indicate an in-phase relationship between the AO and SEASM with periods of approximately 16–32 and 60–80 years.During the positive phase of winter AO,an anomalous surface anti-cyclonic atmosphere circulation appears over North Pacific in winter.The corresponding anomalies in ocean circulation and surface heat flux,particularly the latent and sensible heat flux,resemble a negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO)-like sea surface temperature(SST)pattern.The AO-associated PDO-like winter SST can persist into summer and can therefore lead to inter-decadal variability of summer monsoon rainfall in East and Southeast Asia.

Analysis of Decadal Climate Variability in the Tropical Pacific by Coupled GCM

This study presents the spatial and temporal structures of the decadal variability of the Pacific from an extended control run of a coupled global climate model (GCM).The GCM used was version-g2.0 of the Flexible Global Ocean Atmosphere Land System (FGOALS-g2.0) developed at LASG/IAP.The GCM FGOALS-g2.0 re-produces similar spatial-temporal structures of sea surface temperature (SST) as observed in the Pacific decadal os-cillation (PDO) with a significant period of approximately 14 years.Correspondingly,the PDO signals were closely related to the decadal change both in the upper-ocean temperature anomalies and in the atmospheric circulation.The present results suggest that warm SST anomalies along the equator relax the trade winds,causing the SSTs to warm even more in the eastern equatorial Pacific,which is a positive feedback.Meanwhile,warm SST anomalies along the equator force characteristic off-equa-torial wind stress curl anomalies,inducing much more poleward transport of heat,which is a negative feedback.The upper-ocean meridional heat transport,which is asso-ciated with the PDO phase transition,links the equatorial to the off-equatorial Pacific Ocean,acting as a major mechanism responsible for the tropical Pacific decadal variations.Therefore,the positive and negative feedbacks working together eventually result in the decadal oscilla-tion in the Pacific.

Climate-Related Variations in Autumn Cohort of Japanese Common Squid Todarodes pacificus

The Japanese common squid Todarodes pacificus is widely distributed in the Sea of Japan,the East China Sea and the Northwest Pacific Ocean,and is largely exploited by the Asia-Pacific countries.In this study,the impacts of regime shift of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO)during 1977-2015 on the autumn cohort of T.pacificus were assessed by examining the variations in vertical water temperatures at depths of 0 m(Temp_0 m),50 m(Temp_50 m)and 100 m(Temp_100 m)and the distribution pattern of preferred spawning ground(SSG).Spatial and temporal correlation analysis revealed that the PDO index exhibited a significantly negative relationship with vertical water temperatures at different depths and was negatively related to catch-per-unit-effort(CPUE)and stock biomass of T.pacificus.In addition,water temperatures in the specific three water layers were positively associated with CPUE.The PDO regime shift strongly affected the thermal condition and spawning ground of T.pacificus.Comparing to the negative PDO,the waters from the surface to the deep became cool in the positive PDO phase;correspondingly,the area of SSG largely contracted at different depths.Consequently,the CPUE and stock biomass of T.pacificus profoundly decreased.From the results it can be concluded that the PDO regime shift-driven changes in vertical thermal condition and SSG ranges can yield substantial impacts on T.pacificus abundance.

Possible contribution of the PDO to the eastward retreat of the western pacific subtropical high

Previous studies have demonstrated that the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH)has experienced an eastward retreat since the late 1970s.In this study,the authors propose that this eastward retreat of the WPSH can be partly attributed to atmospheric responses to the positive phase of the Pacific decadal oscillation(PDO),based on idealized SST forcing experiments using the Community Atmosphere Model,version 4.Associated with the positive phase of the PDO,convective heating from the Indian Peninsula to the western Pacific and over the eastern tropical Pacific has increased,which has subsequently forced a Gill-type response to modulate the WPSH.The resulting cyclonic gyre over the Asian continent and the western Pacific in the lower troposphere is favorable for the eastward retreat of the WPSH.Additionally,the resulting anticyclonic gyre in the upper troposphere is favorable for the strengthening and southward expansion of the East Asian westerly jet,which can modulate the jet-related secondary meridional-vertical circulation over the western Pacific and promote the eastward retreat of the WPSH.