Modeling mechanism and extension of GM (1,1)

Firstly, the research progress of grey model GM （1,1） is summarized, which is divided into three development stages： assimilation, alienation and melting stages. Then, the matrix analysis theory is used to study the modeling mechanism of GM （1,1）, which decomposes the modeling data matrix into raw data transformation matrix, accumulated generating operation matrix and background value selection matrix. The changes of these three matrices are the essential reasons affecting the modeling and the accuracy of GM （1,1）. Finally, the paper proposes a generalization grey model GGM （1,1）, which is a extended form of GM （1,1） and also a unified form of model GM （1,1）, model GM （1,1,α）, stage grey model, hopping grey model, generalized accumulated model, strengthening operator model, weakening operator model and unequal interval model. And the theory and practical significance of the extended model is analyzed.

MODELING AND EXPERIMENTAL STUDY OF A PASSIVE HYDRAULIC ENGINE MOUNT WITH INERTIA AND DIRECT-DECOUPLER

To investigate the dynamic characteristics and damping theory of the passive hydraulic engine mount （PHEM）, numerical prediction is performed through lumped parameter model. System parameters, including volume compliance of the decoupler chamber, effective piston area, fluid inertia and resistance of inertia track and direct-decoupler, are identified by means of experiments and finite element method （FEM）. Dynamic behaviors are tested with elastomer test system for purpose of validating PHEM. With incorporation of inertia track and direct-decoupler, PHEM behaves effective and efficient vibration isolation in range of both low and high frequencies. The comparison of the numerical results with the experimental observations shows that the present PHEM achieves fairly good performance for the engine vibration isolation.

Disturbed state concept as unified constitutive modeling approach

A unified constitutive modeling approach is highly desirable to characterize a wide range of engineeringmaterials subjected simultaneously to the effect of a number of factors such as elastic, plastic and creepdeformations, stress path, volume change, microcracking leading to fracture, failure and softening,stiffening, and mechanical and environmental forces. There are hardly available such unified models. Thedisturbed state concept （DSC） is considered to be a unified approach and is able to provide materialcharacterization for almost all of the above factors. This paper presents a description of the DSC, andstatements for determination of parameters based on triaxial, multiaxial and interface tests. Statementsof DSC and validation at the specimen level and at the boundary value problem levels are also presented.An extensive list of publications by the author and others is provided at the end. The DSC is considered tobe a unique and versatile procedure for modeling behaviors of engineering materials and interfaces. 2016 Institute of Rock and Soil Mechanics, Chinese Academy of Sciences. Production and hosting byElsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license

Study of elastic wave propagation in two phase anisotropic media by numerical modeling of pseudospectral method

When there exists anisotropy in underground media elastic parameters of the observed coordinate possibly do not coincide with that of the natural coordinate. According to the theory that the density of potential energy, dissipating energy is independent of the coordinate, the relationship of elastic parameters between two coordinates is derived for two-phase anisotropic media. Then, pseudospectral method to solve wave equations of two-phase anisotropic media is derived. At last, we use this method to simulate wave propagation in two-phase anisotropic media four types of waves are observed in the snapshots, i.e., fast P wave and slow P wave, fast S wave and slow S wave. Shear wave splitting, SV wave cusps and elastic wave reflection and transmission are also observed.

LVP Modeling and Dynamic Characteristics Prediction of A Hydraulic Power Unit in Deep-Sea

A hydraulic power unit （HPU） is the driving ＂heart＂ of deep-sea working equipment. It is critical to predict its dynamic performances in deep-water before being immerged in the seawater, while the experimental tests by simulating deep-sea environment have many disadvantages, such as expensive cost, long test cycles, and difficult to achieve low-temperature simulation, which is only used as a supplementary means for confirmatory experiment. This paper proposes a novel theoretical approach based on the linear varying parameters （LVP） modeling to foresee the dynamic performances of the driving unit. Firstly, based on the varying environment features, dynamic expressions of the compressibility and viscosity of hydranlic oil are derived to reveal the fluid performances changing. Secondly, models of hydraulic system and electrical system are accomplished respectively through studying the control process and energy transfer, and then LVP models of the pressure and flow rate control is obtained through the electro-hydraulic models integration. Thirdly, dynamic characteristics of HPU are obtained by the model simulating within bounded closed sets of varying parameters. Finally, the developed HPU is tested in a deep-sea imitating hull, and the experimental results are well consistent with the theoretical analysis outcomes, which clearly declare that the LVP modeling is a rational way to foresee dynamic performances of HPU. The research approach and model analysis results can be applied to the predictions of working properties and product designs for other deep-sea hydraulic pump.

Failure Prediction Modeling of Lithium Ion Battery toward Distributed Parameter Estimation

Lithium ion battery has typical character of distributed parameter system, and can be described precisely by partial differential equations and multi-physics theory because lithium ion battery is a complicated electrochemical energy storage system. A novel failure prediction modeling method of lithium ion battery based on distributed parameter estimation and single particle model is proposed in this work. Lithium ion concentration in the anode of lithium ion battery is an unmeasurable distributed variable. Failure prediction system can estimate lithium ion concentration online, track the failure residual which is the difference between the estimated value and the ideal value. The precaution signal will be triggered when the failure residual is beyond the predefined failure precaution threshold, and the failure countdown prediction module will be activated. The remaining time of the severe failure threshold can be estimated by the failure countdown prediction module according to the changing rate of the failure residual. A simulation example verifies that lithium ion concentration in the anode of lithium ion battery can be estimated exactly and effectively by the failure prediction model. The precaution signal can be triggered reliably, and the remaining time of the severe failure can be forecasted accurately by the failure countdown prediction module.

HOSVD-based LPV modeling and mixed robust H_2/H_∞ control design for air-breathing hypersonic vehicle

This paper focuses on synthesizing a mixed robust H_2/H_∞ linear parameter varying（LPV） controller for the longitudinal motion of an air-breathing hypersonic vehicle via a high order singular value decomposition（HOSVD） approach.The design of hypersonic flight control systems is highly challenging due to the enormous complexity of the vehicle dynamics and the presence of significant uncertainties.Motivated by recent results on both LPV control and tensor-product（TP） model transformation approach,the velocity and altitude tracking control problems for the air-breathing hypersonic vehicle is reduced to that of a state feedback stabilizing controller design for a polytopic LPV system with guaranteed performances.The controller implementation is converted into a convex optimization problem with parameterdependent linear matrix inequalities（LMIs） constraints,which is intuitively tractable using LMI control toolbox.Finally,numerical simulation results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

A new generic reaction for modeling fluid catalytic cracking risers

A new generic reaction in the form of PC_i→PC_m+[i,m]→PC_m+λi,m coke+surplusage has been proposed for describing the catalytic cracking behavior of petroleum narrow cuts or pseudo-components(PCs),where the rate constant formula is derived from the transition state theory and the coking amount is correlated to the properties of the intermediate substance [i,m].In composing the cracking reaction network for feedstock and product oils,only the product PC m of the proposed generic reaction is used,which together with a criterion for excluding exothermic reactions,distinctly reduces the number of reactions in the network.With the proposed cracking reaction scheme coupled with special pseudo-components,a predictive one-dimensional steady state model for fluid catalytic cracking risers is formulated in the sense that for a given riser and given catalyst,the model parameters are independent of stock oils,product schemes and other operational conditions.The great correlating and predicting capability of the resulted model is tested with production data in different scenarios of four commercial risers.

Research on Affordability Modeling of Aircraft Based on Effectiveness Indexes

With the cost estimation of military aircraft as the research object, this paper aims to study the contradiction between the choice of explanatory variables in index modeling and the maintaining of model validity. It analyzes and establishes a cost estimation modeling concept based on an Effectiveness Index and studies the way to construct Effectiveness Indexes for the sake of cost estimation modeling. Based on a case study, the paper establishes and analyzes the Effectiveness Index-based cost estimation models and DAPCA （Development And Procurement Costs of Aircraft） models developed by the RAND Corparation . The comparison of these models shows that the Effective- ness Index-based cost parameter models not only comprehensively consider the obvious driving parameter indexes of the cost, but reduces the variables of regressive analysis, hence giving the model a higher reliability.

Assessing the effect of invasive organisms on forests under information uncertainty: The case of pine wood nematode in continental Europe

Forests worldwide are experiencing increasingly intense biotic disturbances;however,assessing impacts of these disturbances is challenging due to the diverse range of organisms involved and the complex interactions among them.This particularly applies to invasive species,which can greatly alter ecological processes in their invaded territories.Here we focus on the pine wood nematode(PWN,Bursaphelenchus xylophilus),an invasive pathogen that has caused extensive mortality of pines in East Asia and more recently has invaded southern Europe.It is expected to expand its range into continental Europe with heavy impacts possible.Given the unknown dynamics of PWN in continental Europe,we reviewed laboratory and field experiments conducted in Asia and southern Europe to parameterize the main components of PWN biology and host-pathogen interactions in the Biotic Disturbance Engine(BITE),a model designed to implement a variety of forest biotic agents,from fungi to large herbivores.To simulate dynamically changing host availability and conditions,BITE was coupled with the forest landscape model iLand.The potential impacts of introducing PWN were assessed in a Central European forest landscape(40,928ha),likely within PWN’s reach in future decades.A parameter sensitivity analysis indicated a substantial influence of factors related to dispersal,colonization,and vegetation impact,whereas parameters related to population growth manifested a minor effect.Selection of different assumptions about biological processes resulted in differential timing and size of the main mortality wave,eliminating 40%–95%of pine trees within 100 years post-introduction,with a maximum annual carbon loss between 1.3%and 4.2%.PWN-induced tree mortality reduced the Gross Primary Productivity,increased heterotrophic respiration,and generated a distinct legacy sink effect in the recovery period.This assessment has corroborated the ecological plausibility of the simulated dynamics and highlighted the need for new strategies to navigate the substantial uncertainty in the agent’s biology and population dynamics.

Bayesian model averaging(BMA)for nuclear data evaluation

To ensure agreement between theoretical calculations and experimental data,parameters to selected nuclear physics models are perturbed and fine-tuned in nuclear data evaluations.This approach assumes that the chosen set of models accurately represents the‘true’distribution of considered observables.Furthermore,the models are chosen globally,indicating their applicability across the entire energy range of interest.However,this approach overlooks uncertainties inherent in the models themselves.In this work,we propose that instead of selecting globally a winning model set and proceeding with it as if it was the‘true’model set,we,instead,take a weighted average over multiple models within a Bayesian model averaging(BMA)framework,each weighted by its posterior probability.The method involves executing a set of TALYS calculations by randomly varying multiple nuclear physics models and their parameters to yield a vector of calculated observables.Next,computed likelihood function values at each incident energy point were then combined with the prior distributions to obtain updated posterior distributions for selected cross sections and the elastic angular distributions.As the cross sections and elastic angular distributions were updated locally on a per-energy-point basis,the approach typically results in discontinuities or“kinks”in the cross section curves,and these were addressed using spline interpolation.The proposed BMA method was applied to the evaluation of proton-induced reactions on ^(58)Ni between 1 and 100 MeV.The results demonstrated a favorable comparison with experimental data as well as with the TENDL-2023 evaluation.

Parametric investigation of railway fastenings into the formation and mitigation of short pitch corrugation

Short pitch corrugation has been a problem for railways worldwide over one century.In this paper,a parametric investigation of fastenings is conducted to understand the corrugation formation mechanism and gain insights into corrugation mitigation.A three-dimensional finite element vehicle-track dynamic interaction model is employed,which considers the coupling between the structural dynamics and the contact mechanics,while the damage mechanism is assumed to be differential wear.Various fastening models with different configurations,boundary conditions,and parameters of stiffness and damping are built up and analysed.These models may represent different service stages of fastenings in the field.Besides,the effect of train speeds on corrugation features is studied.The results indicate:(1)Fastening parameters and modelling play an important role in corrugation formation.(2)The fastening longitudinal constraint to the rail is the major factor that determines the corrugation formation.The fastening vertical and lateral constraints influence corrugation features in terms of spatial distribution and wavelength components.(3)The strengthening of fastening constraints in the longitudinal dimension helps to mitigate corrugation.Meanwhile,the inner fastening constraint in the lateral direction is necessary for corrugation alleviation.(4)The increase in fastening longitudinal stiffness and damping can reduce the vibration amplitudes of longitudinal compression modes and thus reduce the track corrugation propensity.The simulation in this work can well explain the field corrugation in terms of the occurrence possibility and major wavelength components.It can also explain the field data with respect to the small variation between the corrugation wavelength and train speed,which is caused by frequency selection and jump between rail longitudinal compression modes.

Introducing the nth-Order Features Adjoint Sensitivity Analysis Methodology for Nonlinear Systems (nth-FASAM-N): I. Mathematical Framework

This work presents the “nth-Order Feature Adjoint Sensitivity Analysis Methodology for Nonlinear Systems” (abbreviated as “nth-FASAM-N”), which will be shown to be the most efficient methodology for computing exact expressions of sensitivities, of any order, of model responses with respect to features of model parameters and, subsequently, with respect to the model’s uncertain parameters, boundaries, and internal interfaces. The unparalleled efficiency and accuracy of the nth-FASAM-N methodology stems from the maximal reduction of the number of adjoint computations (which are considered to be “large-scale” computations) for computing high-order sensitivities. When applying the nth-FASAM-N methodology to compute the second- and higher-order sensitivities, the number of large-scale computations is proportional to the number of “model features” as opposed to being proportional to the number of model parameters (which are considerably more than the number of features).When a model has no “feature” functions of parameters, but only comprises primary parameters, the nth-FASAM-N methodology becomes identical to the extant nth CASAM-N (“nth-Order Comprehensive Adjoint Sensitivity Analysis Methodology for Nonlinear Systems”) methodology. Both the nth-FASAM-N and the nth-CASAM-N methodologies are formulated in linearly increasing higher-dimensional Hilbert spaces as opposed to exponentially increasing parameter-dimensional spaces thus overcoming the curse of dimensionality in sensitivity analysis of nonlinear systems. Both the nth-FASAM-N and the nth-CASAM-N are incomparably more efficient and more accurate than any other methods (statistical, finite differences, etc.) for computing exact expressions of response sensitivities of any order with respect to the model’s features and/or primary uncertain parameters, boundaries, and internal interfaces.

Introducing the nth-Order Features Adjoint Sensitivity Analysis Methodology for Nonlinear Systems (nth-FASAM-N): II. Illustrative Example

This work highlights the unparalleled efficiency of the “nth-Order Function/ Feature Adjoint Sensitivity Analysis Methodology for Nonlinear Systems” (nth-FASAM-N) by considering the well-known Nordheim-Fuchs reactor dynamics/safety model. This model describes a short-time self-limiting power excursion in a nuclear reactor system having a negative temperature coefficient in which a large amount of reactivity is suddenly inserted, either intentionally or by accident. This nonlinear paradigm model is sufficiently complex to model realistically self-limiting power excursions for short times yet admits closed-form exact expressions for the time-dependent neutron flux, temperature distribution and energy released during the transient power burst. The nth-FASAM-N methodology is compared to the extant “nth-Order Comprehensive Adjoint Sensitivity Analysis Methodology for Nonlinear Systems” (nth-CASAM-N) showing that: (i) the 1st-FASAM-N and the 1st-CASAM-N methodologies are equally efficient for computing the first-order sensitivities;each methodology requires a single large-scale computation for solving the “First-Level Adjoint Sensitivity System” (1st-LASS);(ii) the 2nd-FASAM-N methodology is considerably more efficient than the 2nd-CASAM-N methodology for computing the second-order sensitivities since the number of feature-functions is much smaller than the number of primary parameters;specifically for the Nordheim-Fuchs model, the 2nd-FASAM-N methodology requires 2 large-scale computations to obtain all of the exact expressions of the 28 distinct second-order response sensitivities with respect to the model parameters while the 2nd-CASAM-N methodology requires 7 large-scale computations for obtaining these 28 second-order sensitivities;(iii) the 3rd-FASAM-N methodology is even more efficient than the 3rd-CASAM-N methodology: only 2 large-scale computations are needed to obtain the exact expressions of the 84 distinct third-order response sensitivities with respect to the Nordheim-Fuchs model’s parameters when applying the 3rd-FASAM-N methodology, while the application of the 3rd-CASAM-N methodology requires at least 22 large-scale computations for computing the same 84 distinct third-order sensitivities. Together, the nth-FASAM-N and the nth-CASAM-N methodologies are the most practical methodologies for computing response sensitivities of any order comprehensively and accurately, overcoming the curse of dimensionality in sensitivity analysis.

GEOTHERMAL RESOURCES ASSESSMENT AND NUMERICAL SIMULATION IN TUANBO REGION

This paper mainly deals with the reservoir on the heat and mass transfer and mass and energy balance in a geothermal field.On the basis of briefing the general characteristics of the reservoir and the supposition of the reservoir modeling,the paper emphasizes the mathematical descriptions of hydra thermal transportation and convection by two methods according to the different models,such as lumped parameter model and distributed parameter model.It is effective to use these models in simulating the heterogeneous,and anisotropical fracture reservoir for the designed lifetime of 15 years.

MEMS Inductor Consisting of Suspended Thick Crystalline Silicon Spiral with Copper Surface Coating

A novel MEMS inductor consisting of a planar single crystalline silicon spiral with a copper surface coating as the conductor is presented. Using a silicon-glass anodic bonding and deep etching formation-and-release process,a 40μm-thick silicon spiral is formed, which is suspended on a glass substrate to eliminate substrate loss. The surfaces of the silicon spiral are coated with highly conformal copper by electroless plating to reduce the resis- tive loss in the conductor,with thin nickel film plated on the surface of the copper layer for final surface passivation. The fabricated inductor exhibits a self-resonance frequency higher than 15GHz,with a quality factor of about 40 and an inductance of over 5nil at 11.3GHz. Simulations based on a compact equivalent circuit model of the inductor and parameter extraction using a characteristic-function approach are carried out,and good agreement with measurements is obtained.

Nonlinear dynamic analysis of cantilevered piezoelectric energy harvesters under simultaneous parametric and external excitations

The nonlinear dynamics of cantilevered piezoelectric beams is investigated under simultaneous parametric and external excitations. The beam is composed of a substrate and two piezoelectric layers and assumed as an Euler-Bernoulli model with inextensible deformation. A nonlinear distributed parameter model of cantilevered piezoelectric energy harvesters is proposed using the generalized Hamilton＇s principle. The proposed model includes geometric and inertia nonlinearity, but neglects the material nonlinearity. Using the Galerkin decomposition method and harmonic balance method, analytical expressions of the frequency-response curves are presented when the first bending mode of the beam plays a dominant role. Using these expressions, we investigate the effects of the damping, load resistance, electromechanical coupling, and excitation amplitude on the frequency-response curves. We also study the difference between the nonlinear lumped-parameter and distributed- parameter model for predicting the performance of the energy harvesting system. Only in the case of parametric excitation, we demonstrate that the energy harvesting system has an initiation excitation threshold below which no energy can be harvested. We also illustrate that the damping and load resistance affect the initiation excitation threshold.

Is Model Parameter Error Related to a Significant Spring Predictability Barrier for El Nio events? Results from a Theoretical Model

Within a theoretical ENSO model, the authors investigated whether or not the errors superimposed on model parameters could cause a significant ＂spring predictability barrier＂ （SPB） for El Nio events. First, sensitivity experiments were respectively performed to the air-sea coupling parameter, α and the thermocline effect coefficient μ. The results showed that the uncertainties superimposed on each of the two parameters did not exhibit an obvious season-dependent evolution; furthermore, the uncertainties caused a very small prediction error and consequently failed to yield a significant SPB. Subsequently, the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation （CNOP） approach was used to study the effect of the optimal mode （CNOP-P） of the uncertainties of the two parameters on the SPB and to demonstrate that the CNOP-P errors neither presented a unified season-dependent evolution for different El Nio events nor caused a large prediction error, and therefore did not cause a significant SPB. The parameter errors played only a trivial role in yielding a significant SPB. To further validate this conclusion, the authors investigated the effect of the optimal combined mode （i.e. CNOP error） of initial and model errors on SPB. The results illustrated that the CNOP errors tended to have a significant season-dependent evolution, with the largest error growth rate in the spring, and yielded a large prediction error, inducing a significant SPB. The inference, therefore, is that initial errors, rather than model parameter errors, may be the dominant source of uncertainties that cause a significant SPB for El Nio events. These results indicate that the ability to forecast ENSO could be greatly increased by improving the initialization of the forecast model.

Theoretical Investigations of the Local Structure Distortion and EPR Parameter for Ni2＋-doped Perovskite Fluorides

By analyzing the optical spectra and electron paramagnetic resonance parameter D, the local structure distortion of （NiF6）4- clusters in AMF3 （A=K, Rb; M=Zn, Cd, Ca） and K2ZnF4 series are studied using the complete energy matrix based on the double spin-orbit coupling parameter model for configuration ions in a tetragonal ligand field. The results indicate that the contribution of ligand to spin-orbit coupling interaction should be considered for our studied systems. Moreover, the relationships between D and the spin-obit coupling coefficients as well as the average parameter and the divergent parameter are discussed.