Considering chaotic time series multi-step prediction, multi-step direct prediction model based on partial least squares （PLS） is proposed in this article, where PLS, the method for predicting a set of dependent var...Considering chaotic time series multi-step prediction, multi-step direct prediction model based on partial least squares （PLS） is proposed in this article, where PLS, the method for predicting a set of dependent variables forming a large set of predictors, is used to model the dynamic evolution between the space points and the corresponding future points. The model can eliminate error accumulation with the common single-step local model algorithm~ and refrain from the high multi-collinearity problem in the reconstructed state space with the increase of embedding dimension. Simulation predictions are done on the Mackey-Glass chaotic time series with the model. The satisfying prediction accuracy is obtained and the model efficiency verified. In the experiments, the number of extracted components in PLS is set with cross-validation procedure.展开更多
Rate of penetration(ROP) of a tunnel boring machine(TBM) in a rock environment is generally a key parameter for the successful accomplishment of a tunneling project. The objectives of this work are to compare the accu...Rate of penetration(ROP) of a tunnel boring machine(TBM) in a rock environment is generally a key parameter for the successful accomplishment of a tunneling project. The objectives of this work are to compare the accuracy of prediction models employing partial least squares(PLS) regression and support vector machine(SVM) regression technique for modeling the penetration rate of TBM. To develop the proposed models, the database that is composed of intact rock properties including uniaxial compressive strength(UCS), Brazilian tensile strength(BTS), and peak slope index(PSI), and also rock mass properties including distance between planes of weakness(DPW) and the alpha angle(α) are input as dependent variables and the measured ROP is chosen as an independent variable. Two hundred sets of data are collected from Queens Water Tunnel and Karaj-Tehran water transfer tunnel TBM project. The accuracy of the prediction models is measured by the coefficient of determination(R2) and root mean squares error(RMSE) between predicted and observed yield employing 10-fold cross-validation schemes. The R2 and RMSE of prediction are 0.8183 and 0.1807 for SVMR method, and 0.9999 and 0.0011 for PLS method, respectively. Comparison between the values of statistical parameters reveals the superiority of the PLSR model over SVMR one.展开更多
A multi-loop constrained model predictive control scheme based on autoregressive exogenous-partial least squares(ARX-PLS) framework is proposed to tackle the high dimension, coupled and constraints problems in industr...A multi-loop constrained model predictive control scheme based on autoregressive exogenous-partial least squares(ARX-PLS) framework is proposed to tackle the high dimension, coupled and constraints problems in industry processes due to safety limitation, environmental regulations, consumer specifications and physical restriction. ARX-PLS decoupling character enables to turn the multivariable model predictive control(MPC) controller design in original space into the multi-loop single input single output(SISO) MPC controllers design in latent space.An idea of iterative method is applied to decouple the constraints latent variables in PLS framework and recursive least square is introduced to identify ARX-PLS model. This algorithm is applied to a non-square simulation system and a stirred reactor for ethylene polymerizations comparing with adaptive internal model control(IMC) method based on ARX-PLS framework. Its application has shown that this method outperforms adaptive IMC method based on ARX-PLS framework to some extent.展开更多
The deformation prediction models of Wuqiangxi concrete gravity dam are developed,including two statistical models and a deep learning model.In the statistical models,the reliable monitoring data are firstly determine...The deformation prediction models of Wuqiangxi concrete gravity dam are developed,including two statistical models and a deep learning model.In the statistical models,the reliable monitoring data are firstly determined with Lahitte criterion;then,the stepwise regression and partial least squares regression models for deformation prediction of concrete gravity dam are constructed in terms of the reliable monitoring data,and the factors of water pressure,temperature and time effect are considered in the models;finally,according to the monitoring data from 2006 to 2020 of five typical measuring points including J23(on dam section 24^(#)),J33(on dam section 4^(#)),J35(on dam section 8^(#)),J37(on dam section 12^(#)),and J39(on dam section 15^(#))located on the crest of Wuqiangxi concrete gravity dam,the settlement curves of the measuring points are obtained with the stepwise regression and partial least squares regression models.A deep learning model is developed based on long short-term memory(LSTM)recurrent neural network.In the LSTM model,two LSTMlayers are used,the rectified linear unit function is adopted as the activation function,the input sequence length is 20,and the random search is adopted.The monitoring data for the five typical measuring points from 2006 to 2017 are selected as the training set,and the monitoring data from 2018 to 2020 are taken as the test set.From the results of case study,we can find that(1)the good fitting results can be obtained with the two statistical models;(2)the partial least squares regression algorithm can solve the model with high correlation factors and reasonably explain the factors;(3)the prediction accuracy of the LSTM model increases with increasing the amount of training data.In the deformation prediction of concrete gravity dam,the LSTM model is suggested when there are sufficient training data,while the partial least squares regression method is suggested when the training data are insufficient.展开更多
In order to overcome the low precision and weak applicability problems of the current municipal water network state simulation model, the water network structure is studied. Since the telemetry system has been applied...In order to overcome the low precision and weak applicability problems of the current municipal water network state simulation model, the water network structure is studied. Since the telemetry system has been applied increasingly in the water network, and in order to reflect the network operational condition more accurately, a new water network macroscopic model is developed by taking the auto-control adjusting valve opening state into consideration. Then for highly correlated or collinear independent variables in the model, the partial least squares (PLS) regression method provides a model solution which can distinguish between the system information and the noisy data. Finally, a hypothetical water network is introduced for validating the model. The simulation results show that the relative error is less than 5.2%, indicating that the model is efficient and feasible, and has better generalization performance.展开更多
针对传统极限学习机预测滚动轴承故障时,存在信号模式混叠、人为参数选取造成预测精度低下的问题,提出了正态分布-经验小波变换变换结合偏最小二乘法的极限学习机(partial least squares-extreme learning machines,简称PLS-ELM)的故障...针对传统极限学习机预测滚动轴承故障时,存在信号模式混叠、人为参数选取造成预测精度低下的问题,提出了正态分布-经验小波变换变换结合偏最小二乘法的极限学习机(partial least squares-extreme learning machines,简称PLS-ELM)的故障预测方法。首先,提出正态分布经验小波变换信号降噪方法,通过正态分布划分频率带界限,在各频率带上构建带通滤波器进行降噪;其次,提出PLS-ELM的故障预测方法,应用偏最小二乘法(partial least squares,简称PLS)中主成分数和加载权重分别改进极限学习机(extreme learning machines,简称ELM)隐含层节点数和网络权值,激活函数选取Softmax以提高数据的拟合精度;最后,应用无量纲指标峭度来反映故障程度,实现故障趋势预测。试验结果表明,该方法能够准确划分频谱和克服模式混叠等问题,并实现滚动轴承性能衰退趋势预测。展开更多
文摘Considering chaotic time series multi-step prediction, multi-step direct prediction model based on partial least squares （PLS） is proposed in this article, where PLS, the method for predicting a set of dependent variables forming a large set of predictors, is used to model the dynamic evolution between the space points and the corresponding future points. The model can eliminate error accumulation with the common single-step local model algorithm~ and refrain from the high multi-collinearity problem in the reconstructed state space with the increase of embedding dimension. Simulation predictions are done on the Mackey-Glass chaotic time series with the model. The satisfying prediction accuracy is obtained and the model efficiency verified. In the experiments, the number of extracted components in PLS is set with cross-validation procedure.
基金Project(2010CB732004)supported by the National Basic Research Program of ChinaProjects(50934006,41272304)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China
文摘Rate of penetration(ROP) of a tunnel boring machine(TBM) in a rock environment is generally a key parameter for the successful accomplishment of a tunneling project. The objectives of this work are to compare the accuracy of prediction models employing partial least squares(PLS) regression and support vector machine(SVM) regression technique for modeling the penetration rate of TBM. To develop the proposed models, the database that is composed of intact rock properties including uniaxial compressive strength(UCS), Brazilian tensile strength(BTS), and peak slope index(PSI), and also rock mass properties including distance between planes of weakness(DPW) and the alpha angle(α) are input as dependent variables and the measured ROP is chosen as an independent variable. Two hundred sets of data are collected from Queens Water Tunnel and Karaj-Tehran water transfer tunnel TBM project. The accuracy of the prediction models is measured by the coefficient of determination(R2) and root mean squares error(RMSE) between predicted and observed yield employing 10-fold cross-validation schemes. The R2 and RMSE of prediction are 0.8183 and 0.1807 for SVMR method, and 0.9999 and 0.0011 for PLS method, respectively. Comparison between the values of statistical parameters reveals the superiority of the PLSR model over SVMR one.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China （61174114, 60574047）, the National High Technology Re-search and Development Program of China （2007AA04Z168） and the Research Fund for the Doctoral Program of Higher Education of China （20120101130016）.
文摘A multi-loop constrained model predictive control scheme based on autoregressive exogenous-partial least squares(ARX-PLS) framework is proposed to tackle the high dimension, coupled and constraints problems in industry processes due to safety limitation, environmental regulations, consumer specifications and physical restriction. ARX-PLS decoupling character enables to turn the multivariable model predictive control(MPC) controller design in original space into the multi-loop single input single output(SISO) MPC controllers design in latent space.An idea of iterative method is applied to decouple the constraints latent variables in PLS framework and recursive least square is introduced to identify ARX-PLS model. This algorithm is applied to a non-square simulation system and a stirred reactor for ethylene polymerizations comparing with adaptive internal model control(IMC) method based on ARX-PLS framework. Its application has shown that this method outperforms adaptive IMC method based on ARX-PLS framework to some extent.
文摘The deformation prediction models of Wuqiangxi concrete gravity dam are developed,including two statistical models and a deep learning model.In the statistical models,the reliable monitoring data are firstly determined with Lahitte criterion;then,the stepwise regression and partial least squares regression models for deformation prediction of concrete gravity dam are constructed in terms of the reliable monitoring data,and the factors of water pressure,temperature and time effect are considered in the models;finally,according to the monitoring data from 2006 to 2020 of five typical measuring points including J23(on dam section 24^(#)),J33(on dam section 4^(#)),J35(on dam section 8^(#)),J37(on dam section 12^(#)),and J39(on dam section 15^(#))located on the crest of Wuqiangxi concrete gravity dam,the settlement curves of the measuring points are obtained with the stepwise regression and partial least squares regression models.A deep learning model is developed based on long short-term memory(LSTM)recurrent neural network.In the LSTM model,two LSTMlayers are used,the rectified linear unit function is adopted as the activation function,the input sequence length is 20,and the random search is adopted.The monitoring data for the five typical measuring points from 2006 to 2017 are selected as the training set,and the monitoring data from 2018 to 2020 are taken as the test set.From the results of case study,we can find that(1)the good fitting results can be obtained with the two statistical models;(2)the partial least squares regression algorithm can solve the model with high correlation factors and reasonably explain the factors;(3)the prediction accuracy of the LSTM model increases with increasing the amount of training data.In the deformation prediction of concrete gravity dam,the LSTM model is suggested when there are sufficient training data,while the partial least squares regression method is suggested when the training data are insufficient.
基金Supported by Tianjin Natural Science Foundation( No. 003611611).
文摘In order to overcome the low precision and weak applicability problems of the current municipal water network state simulation model, the water network structure is studied. Since the telemetry system has been applied increasingly in the water network, and in order to reflect the network operational condition more accurately, a new water network macroscopic model is developed by taking the auto-control adjusting valve opening state into consideration. Then for highly correlated or collinear independent variables in the model, the partial least squares (PLS) regression method provides a model solution which can distinguish between the system information and the noisy data. Finally, a hypothetical water network is introduced for validating the model. The simulation results show that the relative error is less than 5.2%, indicating that the model is efficient and feasible, and has better generalization performance.
文摘针对传统极限学习机预测滚动轴承故障时,存在信号模式混叠、人为参数选取造成预测精度低下的问题,提出了正态分布-经验小波变换变换结合偏最小二乘法的极限学习机(partial least squares-extreme learning machines,简称PLS-ELM)的故障预测方法。首先,提出正态分布经验小波变换信号降噪方法,通过正态分布划分频率带界限,在各频率带上构建带通滤波器进行降噪;其次,提出PLS-ELM的故障预测方法,应用偏最小二乘法(partial least squares,简称PLS)中主成分数和加载权重分别改进极限学习机(extreme learning machines,简称ELM)隐含层节点数和网络权值,激活函数选取Softmax以提高数据的拟合精度;最后,应用无量纲指标峭度来反映故障程度,实现故障趋势预测。试验结果表明,该方法能够准确划分频谱和克服模式混叠等问题,并实现滚动轴承性能衰退趋势预测。
