During the second half of 2007 and early part of 2008 when there were intense inflationary pressures in China, RMB appreciation was advocated as a means of helping to curb inflation. The effectiveness of appreciation ...During the second half of 2007 and early part of 2008 when there were intense inflationary pressures in China, RMB appreciation was advocated as a means of helping to curb inflation. The effectiveness of appreciation in controlling inflation depends on the impact of exchange rate movements on import and domestic prices. Our analysis finds fairly large and speedy exchange rate pass-through （ERPT） to import prices： 50 and 60percent for the short run and long run, respectively. However, the degree of ERPT decreases along the price chain from upstream to downstream prices. ERPT for consumer prices, the most downstream prices, is much milder and has substantial lags. A 10-percent rise in the nominal effective exchange rate will dampen consumer prices by 1.1 percent within a year, with very little pass-through in the first half year, and by 2.0percent over the long run. These findings, particularly the ERPT to consumer prices, suggest that RMB appreciation can help to reduce inflationary pressures over the longer term. However, it is unlikely to provide rapid relief to the current round of high inflation because of the long lags in ERPZ. The RMB needs to strengthen in effective terms to exert the desired dampening impact on prices.展开更多
The present paper investigates the effect of China＇s share of US imports on the aggregatelevel exchange rate pass-through to US import prices over the period from January 1999 to December 2008. The paper also focuses...The present paper investigates the effect of China＇s share of US imports on the aggregatelevel exchange rate pass-through to US import prices over the period from January 1999 to December 2008. The paper also focuses on the post-reform period, after 2005, allowing greater ftexibility of the RMB to explore the change in the role of the Chinese import share in determining the trend in the US exchange rate pass-through. Evidence reveals that China＇s share of US imports has a negative effect on the exchange rate pass-through. However, this negative effect has been moderated to a negligible level since China＇s exchange rate reform. An important implication is that the exchange rate flexibility of the RMB has been raised to a significant level may no longer cause distortion in the US competitive environment and prevent the USA from adjusting current accounts.展开更多
Exchange rate movement usually results in changes in the production costs of exporting firms, and, therefore, the prices and the quantity of traded products. The present paper constructs a theoretical model to demonst...Exchange rate movement usually results in changes in the production costs of exporting firms, and, therefore, the prices and the quantity of traded products. The present paper constructs a theoretical model to demonstrate that export products with higher productivity, or with larger market share, or of higher quality will experience a less complete passthrough. Using the six-digit harmonized system export data from the CEPII database over the period of 2000 to 2013, the present paper examines how product heterogeneity affects the exchange rate pass-through of Chinese exports. The empirical results show that the most competitive Chinese export products, or those least affected by exchange rate risks, are those of higher quality, with higher technological complexity and at the high end of the international value chain. Therefore, Chinese exporting firms should pay more attention to improving export quality and upgrading technology to better cope with exchange rate risks and to enjoy more bargaining power in the international market.展开更多
The present paper uses a two-step approach to estimate the pass-through effects of changes in international commodity prices and the RMB exchange rate on domestic consumer price inflation in China. We first estimate t...The present paper uses a two-step approach to estimate the pass-through effects of changes in international commodity prices and the RMB exchange rate on domestic consumer price inflation in China. We first estimate the pass-through effects of international commodity prices on producer prices and then estimate the pass-through effects of producer price inflation on consumer price inflation. We find that a l O-percent increase in international commodity prices would lead to China＇ s producer prices increasing by 1.2 percent 3 months later, which in turn would increase China＇ s domestic inflation by 0.24 percent over the same period. However, a 10-percent appreciation of the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar would help to reduce increases in producer prices by 4.4 percent over the following 3 months, which in turn would lead to a 0. 89-percent decline in consumer price inflation over the same period. Our findings suggest that appreciation of the RMB in an environment of rising global commodity prices and a weak US dollar could be an effective instrument to help contain inflation in China.展开更多
本文利用拓展后的Hooper and Morton局部均衡模型,分析了影响中美两国间汇率变动的主要因素。研究发现,在我国确实存在着"高储蓄两难"问题,国内大量的美元资产是导致人民币兑美元汇率升值的主要诱因,而中美两国间相对竞争力...本文利用拓展后的Hooper and Morton局部均衡模型,分析了影响中美两国间汇率变动的主要因素。研究发现,在我国确实存在着"高储蓄两难"问题,国内大量的美元资产是导致人民币兑美元汇率升值的主要诱因,而中美两国间相对竞争力的转变与人民币升值压力之间的联系较弱。因此,有步骤地降低外汇储备中美元资产权重有利于缓解目前的人民币升值压力,而加快国内产业升级和技术进步是保持我国国际竞争力的重要途径,适当提升利率更有利于我国经济目前的平稳发展。展开更多
This paper investigates the effects of the renminbi(RMB)exchange rate on trade prices and volumes in selected Belt and Road Initiative(BRI)countries in comparison with the effects of the US dollar.The stylized facts s...This paper investigates the effects of the renminbi(RMB)exchange rate on trade prices and volumes in selected Belt and Road Initiative(BRI)countries in comparison with the effects of the US dollar.The stylized facts show that the RMB is underused in bilateral trade with selected BRI countries where intermediate goods dominate.By estimating the level of exchange rate pass-through and trade volume elasticity,we find that the RMB is significantly correlated with the volume of imports in the sample countries,predicted by the producer currency pricing(PCP)paradigm.We also regroup intermediate and final goods between China and the BRI countries.The evidence shows that dollar fluctuation affects export volumes,reflecting the role of the US as a final goods destination,whereas the RMB exerts a significant impact on the volume of intermediate goods imported from China to the sample countries due to China s important position in global value chains.展开更多
文摘During the second half of 2007 and early part of 2008 when there were intense inflationary pressures in China, RMB appreciation was advocated as a means of helping to curb inflation. The effectiveness of appreciation in controlling inflation depends on the impact of exchange rate movements on import and domestic prices. Our analysis finds fairly large and speedy exchange rate pass-through （ERPT） to import prices： 50 and 60percent for the short run and long run, respectively. However, the degree of ERPT decreases along the price chain from upstream to downstream prices. ERPT for consumer prices, the most downstream prices, is much milder and has substantial lags. A 10-percent rise in the nominal effective exchange rate will dampen consumer prices by 1.1 percent within a year, with very little pass-through in the first half year, and by 2.0percent over the long run. These findings, particularly the ERPT to consumer prices, suggest that RMB appreciation can help to reduce inflationary pressures over the longer term. However, it is unlikely to provide rapid relief to the current round of high inflation because of the long lags in ERPZ. The RMB needs to strengthen in effective terms to exert the desired dampening impact on prices.
文摘The present paper investigates the effect of China＇s share of US imports on the aggregatelevel exchange rate pass-through to US import prices over the period from January 1999 to December 2008. The paper also focuses on the post-reform period, after 2005, allowing greater ftexibility of the RMB to explore the change in the role of the Chinese import share in determining the trend in the US exchange rate pass-through. Evidence reveals that China＇s share of US imports has a negative effect on the exchange rate pass-through. However, this negative effect has been moderated to a negligible level since China＇s exchange rate reform. An important implication is that the exchange rate flexibility of the RMB has been raised to a significant level may no longer cause distortion in the US competitive environment and prevent the USA from adjusting current accounts.
文摘Exchange rate movement usually results in changes in the production costs of exporting firms, and, therefore, the prices and the quantity of traded products. The present paper constructs a theoretical model to demonstrate that export products with higher productivity, or with larger market share, or of higher quality will experience a less complete passthrough. Using the six-digit harmonized system export data from the CEPII database over the period of 2000 to 2013, the present paper examines how product heterogeneity affects the exchange rate pass-through of Chinese exports. The empirical results show that the most competitive Chinese export products, or those least affected by exchange rate risks, are those of higher quality, with higher technological complexity and at the high end of the international value chain. Therefore, Chinese exporting firms should pay more attention to improving export quality and upgrading technology to better cope with exchange rate risks and to enjoy more bargaining power in the international market.
文摘The present paper uses a two-step approach to estimate the pass-through effects of changes in international commodity prices and the RMB exchange rate on domestic consumer price inflation in China. We first estimate the pass-through effects of international commodity prices on producer prices and then estimate the pass-through effects of producer price inflation on consumer price inflation. We find that a l O-percent increase in international commodity prices would lead to China＇ s producer prices increasing by 1.2 percent 3 months later, which in turn would increase China＇ s domestic inflation by 0.24 percent over the same period. However, a 10-percent appreciation of the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar would help to reduce increases in producer prices by 4.4 percent over the following 3 months, which in turn would lead to a 0. 89-percent decline in consumer price inflation over the same period. Our findings suggest that appreciation of the RMB in an environment of rising global commodity prices and a weak US dollar could be an effective instrument to help contain inflation in China.
文摘本文利用拓展后的Hooper and Morton局部均衡模型,分析了影响中美两国间汇率变动的主要因素。研究发现,在我国确实存在着"高储蓄两难"问题,国内大量的美元资产是导致人民币兑美元汇率升值的主要诱因,而中美两国间相对竞争力的转变与人民币升值压力之间的联系较弱。因此,有步骤地降低外汇储备中美元资产权重有利于缓解目前的人民币升值压力,而加快国内产业升级和技术进步是保持我国国际竞争力的重要途径,适当提升利率更有利于我国经济目前的平稳发展。
文摘This paper investigates the effects of the renminbi(RMB)exchange rate on trade prices and volumes in selected Belt and Road Initiative(BRI)countries in comparison with the effects of the US dollar.The stylized facts show that the RMB is underused in bilateral trade with selected BRI countries where intermediate goods dominate.By estimating the level of exchange rate pass-through and trade volume elasticity,we find that the RMB is significantly correlated with the volume of imports in the sample countries,predicted by the producer currency pricing(PCP)paradigm.We also regroup intermediate and final goods between China and the BRI countries.The evidence shows that dollar fluctuation affects export volumes,reflecting the role of the US as a final goods destination,whereas the RMB exerts a significant impact on the volume of intermediate goods imported from China to the sample countries due to China s important position in global value chains.
