Short-term inbound rail transit passenger flow prediction based on BILSTM model and influence factor analysis

Accurate and real-time passenger flow prediction of rail transit is an important part of intelligent transportation systems(ITS).According to previous studies,it is found that the prediction effect of a single model is not good for datasets with large changes in passenger flow characteristics and the deep learning model with added influencing factors has better prediction accuracy.In order to provide persuasive passenger flow forecast data for ITS,a deep learning model considering the influencing factors is proposed in this paper.In view of the lack of objective analysis on the selection of influencing factors by predecessors,this paper uses analytic hierarchy processes(AHP)and one-way ANOVA analysis to scientifically select the factor of time characteristics,which classifies and gives weight to the hourly passenger flow through Duncan test.Then,combining the time weight,BILSTM based model considering the hourly travel characteristics factors is proposed.The model performance is verified through the inbound passenger flow of Ningbo rail transit.The proposed model is compared with many current mainstream deep learning algorithms,the effectiveness of the BILSTM model considering influencing factors is validated.Through comparison and analysis with various evaluation indicators and other deep learning models,the results show that the R2 score of the BILSTM model considering influencing factors reaches 0.968,and the MAE value of the BILSTM model without adding influencing factors decreases by 45.61%.

A distributed EEMDN-SABiGRU model on Spark for passenger hotspot prediction

To address the imbalance problem between supply and demand for taxis and passengers,this paper proposes a distributed ensemble empirical mode decomposition with normalization of spatial attention mechanism based bi-directional gated recurrent unit(EEMDN-SABiGRU)model on Spark for accurate passenger hotspot prediction.It focuses on reducing blind cruising costs,improving carrying efficiency,and maximizing incomes.Specifically,the EEMDN method is put forward to process the passenger hotspot data in the grid to solve the problems of non-smooth sequences and the degradation of prediction accuracy caused by excessive numerical differences,while dealing with the eigenmodal EMD.Next,a spatial attention mechanism is constructed to capture the characteristics of passenger hotspots in each grid,taking passenger boarding and alighting hotspots as weights and emphasizing the spatial regularity of passengers in the grid.Furthermore,the bi-directional GRU algorithm is merged to deal with the problem that GRU can obtain only the forward information but ignores the backward information,to improve the accuracy of feature extraction.Finally,the accurate prediction of passenger hotspots is achieved based on the EEMDN-SABiGRU model using real-world taxi GPS trajectory data in the Spark parallel computing framework.The experimental results demonstrate that based on the four datasets in the 00-grid,compared with LSTM,EMDLSTM,EEMD-LSTM,GRU,EMD-GRU,EEMD-GRU,EMDN-GRU,CNN,and BP,the mean absolute percentage error,mean absolute error,root mean square error,and maximum error values of EEMDN-SABiGRU decrease by at least 43.18%,44.91%,55.04%,and 39.33%,respectively.

How to Share This“Cake”——Prediction on Chinese Passenger Car Market in 1996

In 1995, 325800 units cars were produced by Chinese car-makers, of which 312100 units were sold out. Concerning the market share, SVW Santanas enjoyed the top position, far beyond the other car models, and compared with the No. 2, Tianjin Charades, their market share was about 30% higher. Because of the

Research on a forecasting model of tourism traffic volume in theme parks in China

In this study,a model based on multiple regression analysis is developed to forecast the tourism traffic volume of theme parks.First,the macro,meso and micro factors affecting traffic passenger volume are analysed.Second,SPSS software is used for multivariate regression analysis on data for 10 theme parks from 2014.A tourism traffic volume forecasting model is then proposed.Finally,related data for 2015 is used to validate the model,with results showing a prediction error of 14.1%.All results show that the model has a high predictive ability.