Probabilistic interval prediction of metro-to-bus transfer passenger flow in the trip chain

To accurately analyze the fluctuation range of time-varying differences in metro-to-bus transfer passenger flows,the application of a probabilistic interval prediction model is proposed to predict transfer passenger flows.First,bus and metro data are processed and matched by association to construct the basis for public transport trip chain extraction.Second,a reasonable matching threshold method to discriminate the transfer relationship is used to extract the public transport trip chain,and the basic characteristics of the trip based on the trip chain are analyzed to obtain the metro-to-bus transfer passenger flow.Third,to address the problem of low accuracy of point prediction,the DeepAR model is proposed to conduct interval prediction,where the input is the interchange passenger flow,the output is the predicted median and interval of passenger flow,and the prediction scenarios are weekday,non-workday,and weekday morning and evening peaks.Fourth,to reduce the prediction error,a combined particle swarm optimization(PSO)-DeepAR model is constructed using the PSO to optimize the DeepAR model.Finally,data from the Beijing Xizhimen subway station are used for validation,and results show that the PSO-DeepAR model has high prediction accuracy,with a 90%confidence interval coverage of up to 93.6%.

Research on Flight First Service Model and Algorithms for the Gate Assignment Problem

Aiming at the problem of gate allocation of transit flights,a flight first service model is established.Under the constraints of maximizing the utilization rate of gates and minimizing the transit time,the idea of“first flight serving first”is used to allocate the first time,and then the hybrid algorithm of artificial fish swarm and simulated annealing is used to find the optimal solution.That means the fish swarm algorithm with the swallowing behavior is employed to find the optimal solution quickly,and the simulated annealing algorithm is used to obtain a global optimal allocation scheme for the optimal local region.The experimental data show that the maximum utilization of the gate is 27.81%higher than that of the“first come first serve”method when the apron is not limited,and the hybrid algorithm has fewer iterations than the simulated annealing algorithm alone,with the overall passenger transfer tension reducing by 1.615;the hybrid algorithm has faster convergence and better performance than the artificial fish swarm algorithm alone.The experimental results indicate that the hybrid algorithm of fish swarm and simulated annealing can achieve higher utilization rate of gates and lower passenger transfer tension under the idea of“first flight serving first”.