Prediction of Civil Aviation Passenger Transportation Based on ARIMA Model

The passenger transportation, as an important index to describe the scale of aviation passenger transport, prediction and research, can let us understand the future trend of the aviation passenger transport, according to it, the airline can make corresponding marketing strategy adjustment. Combining with the knowledge of time series let us understand the characteristics of passenger transportation change, the R software is used to fit the data, so as to establish the ARIMA(1,1,8) model to describe the civil aviation passenger transport developing trend in the future and to make reasonable predictions.

Research and development of prevention and control measures on the transmission of pathogens in compartments of passenger transport

Contagious pathogens like COVID-19 transmitted via respiratory droplets spread effortlessly in the passenger compartments of transport,significantly jeopardizing passengers’safety when taking public transportation.To date,studies on the fundamental theories of airborne droplet transmission and the engineering application of decontamination techniques are insufficient for the prevention and control of pathogens transmitting in the compartments of passenger transport.It is essential to systematically investigate the control approaches to restrain pathogens from transmitting in passenger compartments.Herein,a theoretical framework for calculating the transmission of pathogens in a complex compartment environment was proposed,and experimental platforms that satisfy the Biosafety Level-2 Laboratory safety level for compartment environment simulations were built based on a set of real train cabins.On these bases,numerical investigations on the motion of pathogen-laden droplets were conducted,and decontamination techniques were examined experimentally.Thereby,control measures on the pathogen transmission and pathogen decontamination schemes were proposed.Moreover,highly efficient decontamination devices were developed,and coping strategies for epidemic emergencies were devised.The outcomes provide theoretical and technical support for developing the next generation of transportation and the prevention and control measures cooperatively considering regular and pandemic times.

An improved methodology for evaluating energy service demand for China's passenger transport sector

China's energy service demand statistics for the passenger transport sector only cover travel activities for business purpose.The incomplete data have made it very difficult to conduct long-term scenario analysis for this sector.Thus,this study develops a methodology by refining and combining vehicle activity and travel behavior methods.By taking advantage of the two methods,the extent of uncertainty in estimates can be reduced.A detailed description of China's energy service demand in the passenger transport sector for the years 2013,2015,and 2017 are produced.Results show that there is a significant underestimation of total passenger transport turnover in governmental statistics.After reevaluation,the total passenger turnover doubled and increased by 146%,167%,and 187%,resulting in national total passenger turnover of 6783,8031,and 9406 billion passenger kilometers in 2013,2015,and 2017,respectively.The majority of missing statistics are caused by not accounting for non-operational road transport,which is dominated by private vehicles.After adjustment,the road sector share in total passenger turnover grew substantially from 30%to 40%to approximately 75%,with the proportion of urban travel continuing to increase.We found that without complete data on China's passenger turnover,it may result in more than three-fold overestimation for future travel demand,leading to inaccurate projections with much higher energy consumption and CO_(2) emissions.It is therefore very important to have a detailed and precise calculation of energy service demand in the passenger transport sector.The estimation framework and step-by-step process can also be applied to other developing countries which are confronting similar statistical issues.

Analysis of the Impact of City Transport on Life Quality in the City of Szczecin

This paper looks at public transport in the city of Szczecin.In the recent years,new means of transport have been offered by both external companies and the city.Many city inhabitants have swapped buses for city bikes,scooters and electric scooters available in large cities.A questionnaire survey has been designed to examine the public opinion on the best transport services offered by external companies and whether life quality in the city has improved owing to a wide offering of means of public transport.The paper aims at an analysis and assessment of the city transport services offered and how they influence the quality of life in the city of Szczecin.

ComplexTrans-Global Rail-Road Transportation System Economical and Clustered Individual and Individualised Public Transport also Prevents the Spread of Covid 19

Land transport can no longer meet the requirements.European transport can be described by these words−crowded motorways and cities,dangerous emissions,ubiquitous traffic accidents,delays,expensive railways.Solutions are being sought to transfer a large part of passengers and especially freight transport to(high-speed)rail,and efforts are moving towards electromobility,car-sharing,5G-connectivity,autonomous driving,MaaS(Mobility as a Service)-coordinated transport or hyperloop-type solutions.However,all these solutions have additional challenges and limitations.Solutions are not being searched where they really exist-in the mutual adaptation of road and rail vehicles and their deep cooperation.The ComplexTrans project shows that simply adapting the dimensions and functions of road and rail vehicles can eliminate(or at least significantly reduce)all the problems of existing land transport.The main features of the ComplexTrans system are sufficient parking spaces,reduction of urban and non-urban congestion,electric vehicles with unlimited range and cheaper than standard cars,cheaper and more accessible battery charging,“autonomous ride”,solving the overlap between passenger and freight rail transport and making it self-financing,transferring intercity freight transport to rail,replacing part of continental air transport and many others.The cost-effective and clustered individual transport and individualised public transport of the ComplexTrans system also bring very significant reductions in the risk of transmission of covid-19 and other contagious diseases during transport.

Research on the Real-Time Dynamic Evaluation of Public Transport Passenger Service Satisfaction Based on the Internet

The current method of evaluating passenger satisfaction primarily adopts the traditional static evaluation mode,which can hardly satisfy the dynamic regulatory requirements of highway passenger transport service quality set by industry management departments.In this paper,we summarize the characteristics of real-time dynamic evaluation under the requirements of hierarchical and classified evaluation and analyze the entire process of the one-time travel service of highway passenger transport.We focus on station waiting and in-vehicle services,extract the elements most concerned by passengers as evaluation indexes,and construct a three-level index system.Subsequently,a multi-indicator comprehensive evaluation method based on the analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is selected to construct a comprehensive evaluation model.By combining with the development level of electronic ticket purchasing and the requirements of satisfaction evaluation,we propose three data collection methods and compare and analyze their strengths and weaknesses.Finally,based on actual survey data,the effectiveness of the model is verified.The verification results show that the real-time dynamic evaluation index system based on the Internet can better satisfy evaluation requirements.

铁路集装箱客车化开行停站方案与箱位预分综合优化模型研究

近年来,业内提出了货物运输客运化的运输组织模式思想,通过使用旅客列车的按图行车模式提高货运时效性,增强铁路货运产品市场竞争力。在集装箱班列客车化开行的情况下,停站和箱位预分方案是否合理直接关系到列车的满载率和收益。因此,以列车收益最大化为目标,构建集装箱班列客车化开行停站方案与箱位预分综合优化模型,提出列车沿途停站和各站的箱位预分方案。在建模过程中,通过引入虚拟弧和虚拟点构造停站方案决策变量,进而基于包含虚拟弧和虚拟点的广义网络构造目标函数和约束条件。针对模型中存在阶跃函数的问题,通过引入差异化惩罚参数和辅助变量,采用构造辅助约束条件的手段将模型转化为线性模型。最后通过算例验证了模型的可行性和求解效果。

Scheduling trains on railway network using random walk method

According to random walk, in this paper, we propose a new traffic model for scheduling trains on a railway network. In the proposed method, using some iteration rules for walkers, the departure and the arrival times of trains at each station are determined. We test the proposed method on an assumed railway network. The numerical simulations and the analytical results demonstrate that the proposed method provides an effective tool for scheduling trains. Some characteristic behaviours of train movement can be reproduced, such as train delay.

铁路集装箱旅客化运输系统日常工作计划研究

为提高铁路集装箱运输效率,提升铁路集装箱运输服务质量,学者们参照旅客运输模式建立集装箱旅客化运输系统。研究针对该系统运输组织模式的日常工作计划编制问题,建立混合整数规划模型,结合集装箱运输特点设置箱流批次,确定箱流分配方案。模型优化的目标是在箱流量超过运输能力时,使箱流运输量最大;箱流量较小时,使箱流分配较为均衡。以连云港—阿拉山口运输通道为例,研究结果表明,构建的优化模型能够提升箱流分配均衡性,保障滞后箱流优先运输,提升路网运输的运输效率,证明了模型的有效性。