Using Path Analysis to Identify the Influence of Climatic Factors on Spring Peak Flow Dominated by Snowmelt in an Alpine Watershed

Spring snowmelt peak flow(SSPF) can cause serious damage. Precipitation as rainfall directly contributes to the SSPF and influences the characteristics of the SSPF, while temperature indirectly impacts the SSPF by shaping snowmelt rate and determining the soil frozen state which partitions snowmelt water into surface runoff and soil infiltration water in spring. It is necessary to identify the important and significant paths of climatic factors influencing the SSPF and provide estimates of the magnitude and significance of hypothesized causal connections between climatic factors and the SSPF.This study used path analysis with a selection of five factors – the antecedent precipitation index(API),spring precipitation(SP), winter precipitation as snowfall(WS), <0°C temperature accumulation in winter(|ATN|), and average >0°C temperature accumulation in spring(AT) – to analyze their influences on the SSPF in the Kaidu River in Xinjiang,China. The results show that |ATN|, AT and WS have a significant correlation with the SSPF, while API and SP do not show a significant correlation. AT and WS directly influence the SSPF, while as the influence of |ATN| on SSPF is indirect through WS and AT. The indirect influence of |ATN| on SSPF through WS accounts for 69% of the total influence of |ATN| on SSPF. Compared to the multiple linear regression method, path analysis provides additional valuable information, including influencing paths from independent variables to the dependent variable as well as direct and indirect impacts of external variables on the internal variable. This information can help improve the description of snow melt and spring runoff in hydrologic models as well as the planning and management of water resources.

Development of Upstream Data-Input Models to Estimate Downstream Peak Flow in Two Mediterranean River Basins of Chile

Accurate flood prediction is an important tool for risk management and hydraulic works design on a watershed scale. The objective of this study was to calibrate and validate 24 linear and non-linear regression models, using only upstream data to estimate real-time downstream flooding. Four critical downstream estimation points in the Mataquito and Maule river basins located in central Chile were selected to estimate peak flows using data from one, two, or three upstream stations. More than one thousand paper-based storm hydrographs were manually analyzed for rainfall events that occurred between 1999 and 2006, in order to determine the best models for predicting downstream peak flow. The Peak Flow Index (IQP) (defined as the quotient between upstream and downstream data) and the Transit Times (TT) between upstream and downstream points were also obtained and analyzed for each river basin. The Coefficients of Determination (R2), the Standard Error of the Estimate (SEE), and the Bland-Altman test (ACBA) were used to calibrate and validate the best selected model at each basin. Despite the high variability observed in peak flow data, the developed models were able to accurately estimate downstream peak flows using only upstream flow data.

Effect of removing Al and Ti elements on peak flow stress of nickel-based heat-resistant alloy 617

The hot deformation behavior and the microstructure characteristics of alloy 617 and alloy C-HRA-2 were compared and analyzed.The removal of Al and Ti elements has a significant change in the hot deformation of the alloy,and there are two opposite effects on the flow stress before and after recrystallization.The results show that the removal of Al and Ti elements increases the flow stress of the alloy under high temperature or low strain rate deformation conditions.This is mainly due to the increase in the stacking fault energy of the alloy so that the alloy contains a higher twin boundary fraction after dynamic recrystallization(DRX).However,before DRX occurs,that is,at low temperature and high strain rate,the flow stress of this alloy is relatively reduced.This is due to the reduction in Peierls-Nabarro stress,making the alloy more prone to dislocation slip.

Combination of diaphragmatic breathing with therapeutic walking exercise to increase peak expiratory flow rate in asthma patients

Objective:This study aimed to determine the effect of combined diaphragmatic breathing and therapeutic walking exercise on peak expiratory flow in asthma patients.Methods:The research design used a quasi-experiment nonequivalent pretest and posttest design.The research sample contained 38 respondents divided into intervention and control groups,selected by simple random sampling.The control group received standard drug therapy,while the intervention group received standard drug therapy and a combination of diaphragmatic breathing and therapeutic walking exercise for 2 weeks.This exercise was carried out in the morning,6 times a week,with 5 diaphragmatic breathing and exhalations per exercise.After that,a 1-min break was followed by a therapeutic walking exercise of 5–15 min,with an increased duration.Both groups measured the peak expiratory flow before and after the intervention using a peak flow meter.The data analysis used central tendency and t-test.Results:The results showed that the mean peak expiratory flow in the intervention group was 306.84,while in the control group,it was 232.63,with the value of the t-test being-14.17(P<0.0001).Conclusions:Diaphragmatic breathing and therapeutic walking exercise significantly increased the peak expiratory flow in asthma patients.

利用Flow-3D软件数值模拟堰塞坝溃决过程

利用Autodesk Civil3D软件,根据卫星遥感测绘获取的高程数据,建立唐家山堰塞坝三维数值模型,运用Flow-3D软件,模拟堰塞坝溃决过程,并通过与现场测量的溃口流量过程对比验证模型的合理性。堰塞坝漫顶冲蚀分3个阶段:快速溃口发展阶段、洪峰阶段、溃口发展减缓阶段。在溃决过程中,泄流渠中陡坎处的流速较快,泄流渠两岸冲蚀最深;唐家山堰塞坝溃决过程中,泄流渠有溯源侵蚀现象出现。参数敏感性分析表明:起溃水位对溃决过程影响显著;开挖泄流渠可有效降低堰塞坝溃决时的库水位,从而降低溃口的峰值流量,是控制危害损失的有效方案。

The effects of rainfall regimes and rainfall characteristics on peak discharge in a small debris flow-prone catchment

Peak discharge plays an important role in triggering channelized debris flows.The rainfall regimes and rainfall characteristics have been demonstrated to have important influences on peak discharge.In order to explore the relationship between rainfall regimes and peak discharge,a measuring system was placed at the outlet of a small,debris flow-prone catchment.The facility consisted of an approximately rectangular stilling basin,ending with a sharp-crested weir.Six runoff events were recorded which provided a unique opportunity for characterizing the hydrological response of the debris flow-prone catchment.Then,a rainfall–runoff model was tested against the flow discharge measurements to have a deep understanding of hydrological response.Based on the calibrated rainfall-runoff model,twelve different artificially set rainfall patterns were regarded as the input parameters to investigate the effect of rainfall regimes on peak discharge.The results show that the rainfall patterns have a significant effect on peak discharge.The rainfall regimes which have higher peak rainfall intensity and peak rainfall point occur at the later part of rainfall process are easy to generate larger peak discharge in the condition of the same cumulative rainfall and duration.Then,in order to explore the relationship between rainfall characteristics and peak discharge under different cumulative precipitation and different duration,167 measured rainfall events were also collected.On the basis of rainfall depth,rainfall duration,and maximum hourly intensity,all the rainfall events were classified into four categories by using K-mean clustering.Rainfall regime 1 was composed of rainfall events with a moderate mean P(precipitation),a moderate D(duration),and a moderate I60(maximum hourly intensity).Rainfall regime 2 was the group of rainfall events with a high mean P,long D.Rainfall regime 3,however,had a low P and a long D.The characteristic of Rainfall regime 4 was high I60 and short duration with large P.The results show that the rainfall regime 2 and 4 are easier to generate peak discharge as the rainfall intensity plays an important role in generating peak discharge.The results in this study have implications for improving peak discharge prediction accuracy in debris flow gully.

Trans-Thoracic Echocardiographic Aortic Blood Flow Peak Velocity Variation, Distance Minute, Aortic Velocity Time Integral and Postoperative Outcome in Pediatric Surgical Patients—An Observational Pilot Study Protocol

Background: A Randomized Controlled Trial (RCT) has been elaborated where goal directed fluid and hemodynamic therapy (GDFHT) will be realized with trans-thoracic echocardiographic aortic blood flow peak velocity variation (ΔVpeak) and distance minute (DM) to guide fluid therapy and hemodynamics in high risk pediatric surgical patients. This RCT will clarify the impact of GDFHT with ΔVpeak and DM on postoperative outcome in terms of morbidity, length of stay in the intensive care unit (LOSICU), length of mechanical ventilation (LMV) and length of hospital stay (LOS) in children. To determine values of ΔVpeak, DM and VTI predictive of these postoperative outcomes, an observational pilot study will be realized. This pilot study is described here. The primary objective of this study is to determine values of ΔVpeak, DM and ITV predictive of postoperative outcome in children in terms of morbidity. The secondary objectives are to determine values of ΔVpeak, DM and ITV predictive of LOSICU, LMV, LOS, intraoperative, postoperative fluid administration and vasoactive-inotropic therapy. Methods: 500 - 1000 children aged less than 18 years will be included prospectively. Statistic analysis will be realized with XLSTAT 2019.4.2 software or plus. Results and Conclusions: This trial protocol will determine values of ΔVpeak, DM and ITV with echocardiography predictive of postoperative outcome in children.

床旁即时超声测量动脉峰流速呼吸变异度评价危重症患者容量反应性的临床价值

目的评估床旁即时超声(POCUS)测量动脉峰流速呼吸变异度(△Vpeak)评价危重症患者容量反应性的临床价值。方法回顾性选取川北医学院附属医院于2021年1月至2023年6月收治的100例危重症患者作为研究对象,所有患者均接受容量负荷(VE)试验,根据患者容量反应性分为有反应组[容量负荷后心脏每搏量(SV)增加≥15%,n=56]与无反应组(心脏指数增加<15%,n=44)。容量负荷前后均对患者实施床旁即时超声测量及中心静脉压(CVP)、脉压变异率(PPV)检测,比较两组容量负荷前后△Vpeak[主动脉血流峰流速(△Vpeak-AO)、颈总动脉血流峰流速(△Vpeak-CA)、肱动脉血流峰流速(△Vpeak-BA)、股动脉血流峰流速(△Vpeak-FA)]、CVP、PPV指标,并绘制受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线分析△Vpeak对危重症患者容量反应性的预测价值。结果容量负荷前,有反应组患者的△Vpeak-AO、△Vpeak-CA、△Vpeak-BA、△Vpeak-FA以及PPV分别为(15.42±4.24)%、(14.24±3.24)%、(13.29±2.54)%、(12.35±2.24)%、(13.32±2.53)%,均高于无反应组[(10.93±4.63)%、(10.48±3.16)%、(9.48±2.68)%、(7.84±2.16)%、(9.35±1.27)%],差异均有统计学意义(P<0.05),两组患者CVP比较差异无统计学意义(P>0.05);容量负荷后,有反应组与无反应组各项△Vpeak指标与PPV、CVP比较差异均无统计学意义(P>0.05)。△Vpeak-AO、△Vpeak-CA、△Vpeak-BA、△Vpeak-FA对危重症患者容量反应性敏感度、特异度及曲线下面积高于PPV。结论床旁即时超声测量△Vpeak能够有效预测危重症患者容量反应性,为临床诊断及治疗提供指导,具有较高临床价值。

森林结构差异对大兴安岭森林小流域径流情势和退水特征的影响

径流情势和流域退水是反映水文过程至关重要的指标,除气候因素外,主要受到下垫面和流域水文地质特征的影响。利用准配对流域法,对比大兴安岭地区森林结构不同的2个小流域(老爷岭流域、圣诞村流域),排除气候和地形地貌的干扰,探究森林结构变化对流域径流情势及退水过程的影响。结果表明:老爷岭流域的全年洪峰历时比圣诞村流域延长5 h、平均洪峰滞时推迟2 h,洪峰径流量、变异系数均无显著差异。随着森林平均蓄积量、树种组成、郁闭度等森林结构指标的提高,老爷岭流域(森林结构综合指数较高)较圣诞村流域(森林结构综合指数低)的枯水径流时间低4 h,平均枯水径流深提高0.65 mm(是圣诞村流域3倍),平均枯水径流变异系数低33%,且流域间差异均达到了极显著水平(P<0.01)。通过退水分析,结果表明:老爷岭流域和圣诞村流域退水系数(k)的均值分别为16.9、8.5 d,退水常数(α)均值分别为0.909 4、0.862 6,老爷岭流域的平均退水时间比圣诞村流域延缓了8.4 d。该地区流域水文特征受森林植被变化的影响明显,森林结构复杂、森林质量高的老爷岭流域枯水径流量高并且稳定,退水过程更慢,水源涵养功能更好。

经阴道彩色多普勒超声在子宫内膜病变患者中的应用价值

目的分析经阴道彩色多普勒超声在子宫内膜病变患者中的应用价值。方法选取2021年2月至2022年4月南昌大学第四附属医院收治的88例子宫内膜病变患者作为研究对象,所有患者均接受经阴道彩色多普勒超声及病理学检查,按照病理学检查结果将患者分为息肉组与癌变组,每组44例。比较两组二维超声子宫内膜情况、病灶血流动力学情况、经阴道彩色多普勒超声血流相关参数;以病理学检查结果为金标准,分析经阴道彩色多普勒超声对子宫内膜癌变的诊断效能。结果癌变组子宫内膜厚度厚于息肉组,内膜-肌层分界清晰、病灶回声均匀占比均低于息肉组,差异有统计学意义(P<0.05);癌变组血流丰富占比高于息肉组,差异有统计学意义(P<0.05);癌变组血流阻力指数(RI)、搏动指数(PI)均低于息肉组,时间平均峰值流速(TAP)慢于息肉组,差异有统计学意义(P<0.05);经阴道彩色多普勒超声对子宫内膜癌变的诊断灵敏度为86.36%,特异度为84.09%,准确度为85.23%;诊断息肉的灵敏度为84.09%,特异度为86.36%,准确度为85.23%。结论经阴道彩色多普勒超声对子宫内膜病变的诊断准确率较高,能通过血流动力学、RI、PI、TAP及影像学表现鉴别息肉或癌变。

稻田控制排水对高邮灌区河道洪水过程的影响

以高邮灌区为例,采用水文-水动力模型,研究稻田控制排水措施对河道洪峰流量、水位和洪水过程的影响。结果表明,雨前通过控制灌溉适当降低田间水位可减轻稻田出流峰值,随着稻田控制水位的增加,稻田径流峰值逐渐降低。通过稻田控制排水,可降低田间出口峰值流量,改变灌区河道洪水过程,降低河道洪峰流量和水位,减轻灌区内部以及附近河道的防洪压力。

不同暴雨条件下扇形和羽形流域的洪水规律

为了探讨降雨过程时空分布不均匀性对河道径流的影响,以沂河、沭河流域为例,利用瞬时单位线法和马斯京根法计算重现期为10、 20、 50 a的3 d特征暴雨和2019年台风“利奇马”暴雨在2个流域中的洪水流量,得出各防洪控制站在不同暴雨条件下的洪水规律。结果表明:扇形流域内洪水汇流较集中,容易发生洪灾;羽形流域内各支流洪水交错汇入干流,近水先去,远水后去,洪水较缓和,沂河的防汛压力大于沭河的防汛压力;在相同降雨量条件下,沂沭河流域内临沂站在从北向南的降雨过程中更易形成大洪峰,斜午站、石拉渊站和重沟站在从南向北的降雨过程中更易形成大洪峰;莒县站位于沭河上游,控制流域包含多个支流和3个水库,流域形状为属于羽形流域的沭河流域中的扇形流域,具有洪水汇流集中的特点,沭河莒县站的防汛压力大于沭河其他防洪控制站的防汛压力,而且当沭河流域出现大范围同步降雨过程时,莒县站更易形成大洪峰。

循环流化床锅炉快速变负荷调节技术研究进展

在“碳达峰”与“碳中和”背景下,煤电是我国目前可再生能源大规模消纳的最经济调节电源。循环流化床燃烧技术因具有低负荷稳燃能力强、污染物控制成本低、负荷调节范围宽等独特优势在煤电深度灵活调峰中担当重要角色,但其独特的燃烧方式导致变负荷速率慢,无法满足未来可再生能源大规模并网的调节需求。该文结合循环流化床锅炉的燃烧原理及应用场景,深入分析制约循环流化床锅炉变负荷速率的关键影响因素,包括循环灰的流动惯性、燃料的反应惯性、床料与耐火耐磨材料的传热惯性、污染物排放等。此外,对可行的循环流化床快速变负荷调节技术进行探讨与分析,可为我国燃煤循环流化床锅炉深度与快速灵活调节技术的工业应用提供一定参考。

暗河发育区岩溶隧道突涌水洪峰流量估计

地下暗河是岩溶隧道建设与运营重大的安全风险,暗河发育区岩溶隧道突涌水洪峰估计是岩溶隧道施工抢险与后期处治方案制定的重要基础数据。地下暗河洪峰流量不仅由岩溶区水文地质条件控制,而且还受到暴雨期地表径流补给的影响。本文结合实测数据和统计数据,围绕小流域暴雨资料推求出地表汇流洪峰和地下暗河汇泄流洪峰,提出了一种考虑地表径流补给的暗河发育区岩溶隧道突涌水洪峰估计方法,并结合翠屏隧道的地形地貌、水文地质与实测涌水资料,开展了案例分析计算并比较实测涌水量。表明传统涌水预测方法无法考虑暗河与地表水补给的影响,与实测结果差距很大,本方法能够较好预测岩溶区因地表汇水补给暗河发育区隧道突涌水洪峰,为隧道防洪护堤高度、涵管过水容量设计、洪峰避险时间提供重要支撑,保障隧道施工与运营安全。

湄公河三角洲洪水特性及其演变规律分析

湄公河三角洲洪涝问题一直是国际社会关注的热点,其洪水特性的不明晰成为制约该地区洪涝灾害治理的短板。基于湄公河三角洲代表站桔井站实测长系列水文资料,采用滑动t检验、Morlet小波变换分析及洪水丰平枯水年划分等方法研究其洪水特性及演变规律。研究结果表明:①湄公河三角洲主汛期平均起止时间为6月30日至11月2日,近年来主汛期历时易发生极端情况,尤以长汛期洪水更为显著;②湄公河三角洲峰现时间集中发生于8~9月,一场洪水历时平均约90 d;③湄公河三角洲桔井站峰高量大,最大90 d洪量与洪峰流量序列存在着35~37 a的周期变换规律;④桔井站洪峰-洪量组合变换多样,洪峰、洪量丰枯变化规律除少数年份外基本保持一致。研究成果可为认识湄公河三角洲复合水文规律提供重要科学依据。

基于遗传算法的高峰时段车站协同限流方法

车站限流是缓解城市轨道交通高峰客流拥挤的有效应对措施。然而,目前实际应用的限流措施缺乏对同线路相邻车站的协同配合的考虑,限流效果有待进一步提升。综合考虑乘客、列车、车站三者的交互关系,依据列车在车站的发车时间间隔,对高峰时段的列车时刻表进行时间离散化,将离散化的时段作为基本研究时段,提取对应的车站乘客到达量。从供需双方的角度出发,以乘客总延误时间最小化和旅客周转量最大化为优化目标,在考虑列车运输能力、客流控制强度、车站服务水平的同时,引入列车剩余运输能力作为约束条件,平衡不同车站的客流需求,构建车站协同限流优化模型。针对多目标函数求解的复杂性,设计1种嵌入式遗传算法对模型进行求解,平衡多目标函数之间最优解的冲突。以南京地铁三号线高峰时段为例,与不采取协同限流的情景(先到先服务)进行对比分析。结果表明:在乘客总周转量提升1%的情况下,乘客延误人数下降了2.3%,乘客总延误时间降低了4.3%,拥挤车站的延误人数显著降低,延误人数的时空分布更加平衡。为了验证算法的有效性和模型的稳定性,将遗传算法与Gurobi求解器进行算法对比,并对关键参数列车满载率进行灵敏度分析,提出的遗传算法更能兼顾双优化目标,有利于缓解高峰时段大客流延误。

结构参数对闭口体系新型激波吹灰器工作特性的影响研究

锅炉吹灰器可以有效实现清除锅炉内部的积灰,提高锅炉运行效率,对锅炉安全运行具有重要意义。SPG型激波吹灰器是在传统激波吹灰器基础上发展而来的闭口体系新型高性能吹灰器,使用数值方法对该装置的可行性进行验证,并分析工作特性,可以为实际应用与改进提供参考。基于CFD技术,将SPG型激波吹灰器作为研究对象,使用动网格技术对设备内活塞的真实运动过程进行仿真模拟,利用Fluent软件模拟计算SPG型激波吹灰器内部流场的连续变化这一动态过程,并通过调整喷管、燃烧室以及压力蓄能器的结构参数,在出口处监测得到各部件结构参数变化对排气特性的影响规律,获取其工作特性。结果表明:喷管的长径比从2增加到4时,出口参数峰值出现滞后现象,但压力峰值与速度峰值获得显著提升,且喷管的扩张段改为直管可以降低膨胀损失,适当增加喷管长径比并直接连接直管是一种较好的方案;燃烧室径向和轴向壁面之间的间距缩短均可使出口压力峰值提高,但轴向距离缩短压力峰值增加幅度更大;在压力蓄能器中,去除阻尼装置压力提升较少,且无法减缓活塞复位,使排出气体减少,去除限位器后喷管出口压力大幅提高,但其峰值持续时间变短。

乌东德水电站日调峰对下游裂腹鱼类栖息地的影响

日调峰是乌东德水电站日常运行的主要出力约束和调度目标。为了探讨电站调度引起的出库流量大幅涨落对下游生态环境的不利影响,采用河道内流量增量法,通过构建二维水动力模型,研究了乌东德水电站日调峰引起的下游河段水文水动力条件波动对裂腹鱼类繁殖期栖息地适宜性的影响,并分析了2023年电站基荷发电生态调度试验效果。结果表明,乌东德电站下泄流量低于1160 m^(3)/s,坝下江段裂腹鱼类潜在产卵场面积相对较大;流量高于2000 m^(3)/s,裂腹鱼类潜在的产卵场面积显著减少。电站日调峰结束时,出库流量降幅越大,裂腹鱼类潜在产卵场脱水面积及鱼卵脱水风险越大。乌东德电站基荷发电生态调度期间,坝下江段裂腹鱼类潜在产卵场的加权面积有所减少,但潜在产卵场和鱼卵早期的脱水风险显著降低。为提高繁殖期裂腹鱼类生境适宜性和持续性,有必要进一步减少电站日调峰频率,降低出库流量至适宜区间。

西南小流域洪峰流量估算

[目的]准确预测小流域的洪峰流量,为小流域水文应用和水保措施设计提供支撑。[方法]利用重庆万州刘家沟小流域2013—2021年共215次降雨事件数据,采用皮尔逊相关分析的方法,分析了重庆小流域次暴雨洪峰流量与降雨参数和径流参数的相关关系,进而采用线性回归和非线性回归方法,根据降雨径流资料估算了洪峰流量。[结果]研究建立了适用于西南小流域的洪峰流量公式,使用172场降雨事件数据进行参数率定,其模型有效系数为0.85;使用43场降雨事件对模型进行验证,相应的模型有效系数为0.82,结果表明新公式在研究区是可以接受的。[结论]研究建立的洪峰流量公式,能够较好地预测研究流域的洪峰流量,新建公式将为重庆乃至中国西南小流域进行水土保持措施的决策、水土保持工程设施设计和土壤侵蚀评价等提供一定技术基础。

基于SWMM的杭州小和山区域LID措施

【目的】缓解杭州城西小和山区域涝水问题。【方法】基于海绵城市理念,利用层次分析法(analytic hierarchy process, AHP)针对研究区域设置的5种低影响开发(low impact development, LID)改造设施的效益指标权重进行判别,实现不同LID设施下的综合效益优选,并利用暴雨管理模型(storm water management model, SWMM)构建研究区域雨洪模型,比较LID设施布设前后的汇水情况。【结果】对研究区域中12%的学校和住宅区域用地增添雨水花园,25%的广场铺装改造为透水铺装,65%的道路设置渗渠,可使洪峰出现时刻延迟45 min,洪峰流量削减率达61.5%,径流系数削减率为19.2%。可见,改造措施对洪峰流量、地表径流系数和洪峰时间等均起到显著的削弱作用。【结论】本研究结果对缓解同类区域涝水问题及提升防涝治理技术具有参考意义。