To anticipate the fluctuations in per capita disposable income among Hubei Province inhabitants for the subsequent biennium,a dataset spanning from 2005 to 2022 was culled.Employed in this study were three distinct ti...To anticipate the fluctuations in per capita disposable income among Hubei Province inhabitants for the subsequent biennium,a dataset spanning from 2005 to 2022 was culled.Employed in this study were three distinct time series prognostication methodologies:Exponential Smoothing(Holt-Winter),Autoregressive Moving Average(ARMA),and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average(ARIMA).These techniques were applied to envision the forthcoming trajectory of per capita disposable income for the province's residents.By computing diverse metrics to assess predictive discrepancies—like the Mean Absolute Error(MAE)and Root Mean Square Error(RMSE)—the effectiveness of the assorted models was gauged,culminating in the selection of the ARIMA model due to its superior performance.Capitalizing on this,approximations for per capita disposable income during 2023 and 2024 were extrapolated.The resultant prognoses project a sustained and noteworthy uptick in per capita disposable income for urban denizens of Hubei Province in the forthcoming biennial span.Ultimately,the findings were translated into actionable policy suggestions and deductions,rendering them highly pertinent for the dissection of Hubei Province's economic evolution.展开更多
In recent years,while the traditional trade sectors have been shrinking,China’s cross-border e-commerce has undergone rapid development and has become a new driver of its international trade.Based on analysis of the ...In recent years,while the traditional trade sectors have been shrinking,China’s cross-border e-commerce has undergone rapid development and has become a new driver of its international trade.Based on analysis of the evolution pattern of China’s cross-border e-commerce,this paper uses a revised gravity model to test empirically the driving factors and the resistance factors in the development of the country’s cross-border e-commerce.The results show that the total GDP,per capita disposable income of urban residents,total imports and exports,and the scale of the online shopping market have a positive relationship with cross-border e-commerce transactions,which are conducive to the development of cross-border e-commerce,while logistics costs inhibit the development of cross-border e-commerce.Accordingly,the paper puts forward several policy recommendations.展开更多
文摘To anticipate the fluctuations in per capita disposable income among Hubei Province inhabitants for the subsequent biennium,a dataset spanning from 2005 to 2022 was culled.Employed in this study were three distinct time series prognostication methodologies:Exponential Smoothing(Holt-Winter),Autoregressive Moving Average(ARMA),and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average(ARIMA).These techniques were applied to envision the forthcoming trajectory of per capita disposable income for the province's residents.By computing diverse metrics to assess predictive discrepancies—like the Mean Absolute Error(MAE)and Root Mean Square Error(RMSE)—the effectiveness of the assorted models was gauged,culminating in the selection of the ARIMA model due to its superior performance.Capitalizing on this,approximations for per capita disposable income during 2023 and 2024 were extrapolated.The resultant prognoses project a sustained and noteworthy uptick in per capita disposable income for urban denizens of Hubei Province in the forthcoming biennial span.Ultimately,the findings were translated into actionable policy suggestions and deductions,rendering them highly pertinent for the dissection of Hubei Province's economic evolution.
基金supported by the National Social Science Foundation General Program (12BJY009)the National Natural Science Foundation (71673087)Shanghai Municipal Philosophy and Social Sciences Planning General Program (2018BJB025)
文摘In recent years,while the traditional trade sectors have been shrinking,China’s cross-border e-commerce has undergone rapid development and has become a new driver of its international trade.Based on analysis of the evolution pattern of China’s cross-border e-commerce,this paper uses a revised gravity model to test empirically the driving factors and the resistance factors in the development of the country’s cross-border e-commerce.The results show that the total GDP,per capita disposable income of urban residents,total imports and exports,and the scale of the online shopping market have a positive relationship with cross-border e-commerce transactions,which are conducive to the development of cross-border e-commerce,while logistics costs inhibit the development of cross-border e-commerce.Accordingly,the paper puts forward several policy recommendations.
