Surface runoff processes and sustainable utilization of water resources in Manas River Basin, Xinjiang, China

Water is the important resource to guarantee the existence and development of oases in arid areas. To improve the utilization efficiency of water resources in Manas River Basin, this paper investigated the trends and periods of runoff based on the runoff and climate data for the past 50 years. Subsequently, with the socioeconomic and water resources data, we studied a comprehensive evaluation on the water security in this area. The results indicated that the stream flows in the three hydrological stations of Hongshanzui, Kensiwat and Bajiahu have sig- nificantly increased and undergone abrupt changes, with periods of 18 and 20 years. According to assessment, water security in the Manas River Basin was at an unsafe level in 2008. In criterion layer, the ecological security index and the index of supply-demand situation are both at the relatively secure level; the quantity index and so- cioeconomic index of water resources are at the unsafe level and basic security level, respectively. Therefore, in order to achieve sustainable economic and social development within the Manas River Basin, it is vital to take a series of effective measures to improve the status of water security.

Spatial / Temporal Features of Antarctic Climate Change

Bused on January 1962-October 1993 mean value series of monthly mean temperature anomalies of 16 Antarctic stations on 10 standard isobanc surfaces from the surface to the 30 hPa,long term trends and periodic features of climate changes from the troposphere to the lower stratosphere over the Antarctic region are investigated by maximum entropy power spectrum analysis,and the relation between climate change of the stratosphere (troposphere) and tolal ozone (southern 500 hPa circulation) is discussed.

Runoff Variation Law and Its Response to Climate Change in the Headstream Area of the Keriya River Basin,Xinjiang

Based on the runoff and meteorological data of Langan（兰干） Hydrological Station from 1957 to 2009 in Keriya（克里雅） River,the periodicities,abrupt changes,and trends of climate factors and runoff were investigated by wavelet analysis and nonparametric test;then,the future change of the annual runoff was predicted by a periodic trend superposition model.In succession,the influencing volumes of climate change on the annual runoff were separated from the observation values of the an-nual runoff in Keriya River.The results show that（1） temperature series increased significantly,while the annual runoff and precipitation of Keriya River increased insignificantly at the significant level of α=0.05;（2） the common periods of 9 and 15 years existed in the annual runoff evolution process,and the primary periods of temperature and precipitation were 9 and 22 years and 9 and 13 years,respec-tively;（3） the annual runoff did not vary simultaneously with the abrupt change of climate factors in the headstream;the abrupt points of annual runoff and temperature are at 1998 and 1980 year,and that of precipitation is not so significant;and（4） the annual runoff will experience a decrease trend in the future period;the total increasing volume owing to climate change is 23.154×108 m3 in the head-stream during the period of 1999-2009;however,the stream flow has been nearly utilized completely due to the human activities in the mainstream area of Keriya River.