Modeled response of talik development under thermokarst lakes to permafrost thickness on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

Permafrost thickness under identical climates in cold regions can vary significantly because it is severely affected by climate change, topography, soil physical and thermal properties, and geothermal conditions. This study numerically in- vestigates the response of ground thermal regime and talik development processes to permafrost with different thicknesses under a thermokarst lake on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. On the basis of observed data and information from a representative monitored lake in the Beiluhe Basin, we used a heat transfer model with phase change under a cylindrical coordinate system to conduct three simulation cases with permafrost thicknesses of 45 m, 60 m, and 75 m, respectively. The simulated results indicate that increases in permafrost thickness not only strongly retarded the open talik formation time, but also delayed the permafrost lateral thaw process after the formation of open talik. Increasing the permafrost thickness by 33.3% and 66.7% led to open talik formation time increases of 83.66% and 207.43%, respectively, and resulted in increases in the lateral thaw duration of permafrost under the modeled thermokarst lake by 28.86% and 46.54%, respectively, after the formation of the open taliks.

Performance comparison of permafrost models in Wudaoliang Basin,Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,China

Knowledge of the spatial distribution of permafrost and the effects of climate on ground temperature are important for land use and infrastructure development on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau(QTP). Different permafrost models have been developed to simulate the ground temperature and active layer thickness(ALT). In this study, Temperature at Top of Permafrost(TTOP) model, Kudryavtsev model and modified Stefan solution were evaluated against detailed field measurements at four distinct field sites in the Wudaoliang Basin to better understand the applicability of permafrost models. Field data from 2012 to 2014 showed that there were notable differences in observed ground temperatures and ALTs within and among the sites. The TTOP model is relatively simple, however, when driven by averaged input values, it produced more accurate permafrost surface temperature(Tps) than the Kudryavtsev model. The modified Stefan solution resulted in a satisfactory accuracy of 90%, which was better than the Kudryavtsev model for estimating ALTs. The modified Stefan solution had the potential of being applied to climate-change studies in the future. Furthermore, additional field investigations over longer periods focusing on hydrology, which has significant influence on permafrost thaw, are necessary. These efforts should employ advanced measurement techniques to obtain adequate and extensive local parameters that will help improve model accuracy.