The Roles of Low-level Jets in “21·7” Henan Extremely Persistent Heavy Rainfall Event

An extremely heavy rainfall event lasting from 17 to 22 July 2021 occurred in Henan Province of China, with accumulated precipitation of more than 1000 mm over a 6-day period that exceeded its mean annual precipitation. The present study examines the roles of persistent low-level jets(LLJs) in maintaining the precipitation using surface station observations and reanalysis datasets. The LLJs triggered strong ascending motions and carried moisture mainly from the outflow of Typhoon In-fa(2021). The varying directions of the LLJs well corresponded to the meridional shifts of the rainfall. The precipitation rate reached a maximum during 20-21 July as the LLJs strengthened and expanded vertically into double LLJs, including synoptic-weather-system-related LLJs(SLLJs) at 850–700 hPa and boundary-layer jets(BLJs)at ~950 hPa. The coupling of the SLLJ and BLJ provided strong mid-and low-level convergence on 20 July, whereas the SLLJ produced mid-level divergence at its entrance that coupled with low-level convergence at the terminus of the BLJ on21 July. The formation mechanisms of the two types of LLJs are further examined. The SLLJs and the low-pressure vortex(or inverted trough) varied synchronously as a whole and were affected by the southwestward movement of the WPSH in the rainiest period. The persistent large total pressure gradient force at low levels also maintained the strength of low-level geostrophic winds, thus sustaining the BLJs on the synoptic scale. The results based on a Du-Rotunno 1D model show that the Blackadar and Holton mechanisms jointly governed the BLJ dynamics on the diurnal scale.

Assimilation of the FY-4A AGRI Clear-Sky Radiance Data in a Regional Numerical Model and Its Impact on the Forecast of the“21·7”Henan Extremely Persistent Heavy Rainfall

Assimilation of the Advanced Geostationary Radiance Imager(AGRI)clear-sky radiance in a regional model is performed.The forecasting effectiveness of the assimilation of two water vapor(WV)channels with conventional observations for the“21·7”Henan extremely heavy rainfall is analyzed and compared with a baseline test that assimilates only conventional observations in this study.The results show that the 24-h cumulative precipitation forecast by the assimilation experiment with the addition of the AGRI exceeds 500 mm,compared to a maximum value of 532.6 mm measured by the national meteorological stations,and that the location of the maximum precipitation is consistent with the observations.The results for the short periods of intense precipitation processes are that the simulation of the location and intensity of the 3-h cumulative precipitation is also relatively accurate.The analysis increment shows that the main difference between the two sets of assimilation experiments is over the ocean due to the additional ocean observations provided by FY-4A,which compensates for the lack of ocean observations.The assimilation of satellite data adjusts the vertical and horizontal wind fields over the ocean by adjusting the atmospheric temperature and humidity,which ultimately results in a narrower and stronger WV transport path to the center of heavy precipitation in Zhengzhou in the lower troposphere.Conversely,the WV convergence and upward motion in the control experiment are more dispersed;therefore,the precipitation centers are also correspondingly more dispersed.

On the Climatology of Persistent Heavy Rainfall Events in China

Persistent heavy rainfall events （PHR events） comprise one category of weather- and climate- related extreme events. Based on daily rainfall data measured in China during the period of 1951-2004, several quantitative criteria were developed to define PHR events by means of their precipitation intensity, temporal duration, spatial extent and persistence. Then a semi-objective classification based on these criteria was applied to summer daily rainfall data to identify all PHR events. A total of 197 events were observed during the study period. All events were further classified into 5 categories according to their comprehensive intensity; into 3 types according to their circulation regime; and into 8 groups according to the geographic locations of their rainbands. Based on these different classifications, finally, the behaviors of 130 PHR events identified as the most severe, severe and moderate categories since the year of 1951, including characteristics of the spatial and temporal distributions of their frequencies, intensities, and rainbands, were investigated in order to present a comprehensive description of the PHR events. The results will be helpful to the future study of revealing and understanding the processes that govern the production of the PHR events and to the improvement of the forecasts of the PHR events.

Main Energy Paths and Energy Cascade Processes of the Two Types of Persistent Heavy Rainfall Events over the Yangtze River–Huaihe River Basin

Two types of persistent heavy rainfall events （PHREs） over the Yangtze River-Huaihe River Basin were determined in a recent statistical study： type A, whose precipitation is mainly located to the south of the Yangtze River; and type B, whose precipitation is mainly located to the north of the river. The present study investigated these two PHRE types using a newly derived set of energy equations to show the scale interaction and main energy paths contributing to the persistence of the precipitation. The main results were as follows. The available potential energy （APE） and kinetic energy （KE） associated with both PHRE types generally increased upward in the troposphere, with the energy of the type-A PHREs stronger than that of the type-B PHREs （except for in the middle troposphere）. There were two main common and universal energy paths of the two PHRE types： （1） the baroclinic energy conversion from APE to KE was the dominant energy source for the evolution of large-scale background circulations; and （2） the downscaled energy cascade processes of KE and APE were vital for sustaining the eddy flow, which directly caused the PHREs. The significant differences between the two PHRE types mainly appeared in the lower troposphere, where the baroclinic energy conversion associated with the eddy flow in type-A PHREs was from KE to APE, which reduced the intensity of the precipitation-related eddy flow; whereas, the conversion in type-B PHREs was from APE to KE, which enhanced the eddy flow.

Correlation Analysis of Persistent Heavy Rainfall Events in the Vicinity of the Yangtze River Valley and Global Outgoing Longwave Radiation in the Preceding Month

Based on the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration （NOAA） daily satellite dataset of global outgoing longwave radiation （OLR） for the period of 1974-2004 and the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis for 1971- 2004, the linkage between persistent heavy rainfall （PHR） events in the vicinity of the Yangtze River valley and global OLR leading up to those events （with 1- to 3O-day lag） was investigated. The results reveal that there is a significant connection between the initiation of PHR events over the study area and anomalous convective activity over the tropical Indian Ocean, maritime continent, and tropical western Pacific Ocean. During the 30-day period prior to the onset of PHR events, the major significantly anomalous convective centers have an apparent dipole structure, always with enhanced convection in the west and suppressed convection in the east. This dipole structure continuously shifts eastward with time during the 30-day lead period. The influence of the anomalous convective activity over the tropical oceans on the initiation of PHR events over the study area is achieved via an interaction between tropical and extratropical latitudes. More specifically, anomalous convective activity weakens the Walker circulation cell over the tropical Indian Ocean first. This is followed by a weakening of the Indian summer monsoon background state and the excitation and dispersion of Rossby wave activity over Eurasia. Finally, a major modulation of the large scale background circulation occurs. As a result, the condition of a phase-lock among major large scale circulation features favoring PHR events is established over the study area.

Typical Circulation Patterns and Associated Mechanisms for Persistent Heavy Rainfall Events over Yangtze–Huaihe River Valley during 1981–2020

Persistent heavy rainfall events(PHREs)over the Yangtze–Huaihe River Valley(YHRV)during 1981–2020 are classified into three types(type-A,type-B and type-C)according to pattern correlation.The characteristics of the synoptic systems for the PHREs and their possible development mechanisms are investigated.The anomalous cyclonic disturbance over the southern part of the YHRV during type-A events is primarily maintained and intensified by the propagation of Rossby wave energy originating from the northeast Atlantic in the mid–upper troposphere and the northward propagation of Rossby wave packets from the western Pacific in the mid–lower troposphere.The zonal propagation of Rossby wave packets and the northward propagation of Rossby wave packets during type-B events are more coherent than those for type-A events,which induces eastward propagation of stronger anomaly centers of geopotential height from the northeast Atlantic Ocean to the YHRV and a meridional anomaly in geopotential height over the Asian continent.Type-C events have“two ridges and one trough”in the high latitudes of the Eurasian continent,but the anomalous intensity of the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH)and the trough of the YHRV region are weaker than those for type-A and type-B events.The composite synoptic circulation of four PHREs in 2020 is basically consistent with that of the corresponding PHRE type.The location of the South Asian high(SAH)in three of the PHREs in 2020 moves eastward as in the composite of the three types,but the position of the WPSH of the four PHREs is clearly westward and northward.Two water vapor conveyor belts and two cold air conveyor belts are tracked during the four PHREs in 2020,but the water vapor path from the western Pacific is not seen,which may be caused by the westward extension of the WPSH.

A COMBINED VERIFICATION METHOD FOR PREDICTABILITY OF PERSISTENT HEAVY RAINFALL EVENTS OVER EAST ASIA BASED ON ENSEMBLE FORECAST

Persistent Heavy Rainfall(PHR)is the most influential extreme weather event in Asia in summer,and thus it has attracted intensive interests of many scientists.In this study,operational global ensemble forecasts from China Meteorological Administration(CMA)are used,and a new verification method applied to evaluate the predictability of PHR is investigated.A metrics called Index of Composite Predictability(ICP)established on basic verification indicators,i.e.,Equitable Threat Score(ETS)of 24 h accumulated precipitation and Root Mean Square Error(RMSE)of Height at 500 h Pa,are selected in this study to distinguish"good"and"poor"prediction from all ensemble members.With the use of the metrics of ICP,the predictability of two typical PHR events in June 2010 and June 2011 is estimated.The results show that the"good member"and"poor member"can be identified by ICP and there is an obvious discrepancy in their ability to predict the key weather system that affects PHR."Good member"shows a higher predictability both in synoptic scale and mesoscale weather system in their location,duration and the movement.The growth errors for"poor"members is mainly due to errors of initial conditions in northern polar region.The growth of perturbation errors and the reason for better or worse performance of ensemble member also have great value for future model improvement and further research.

Long-term changes in wintertime persistent heavy rainfall over southern China contributed by the Madden-Julian Oscillation

During the boreal winter,abundant persistent heavy rainfall(PHR)amount and significant rainfall variability at subseasonal timescale are generally observed over the southern sector of East China,where the large-scale circulation and moisture transport are tightly connected with the equatorial Madden-Julian Oscillation(MJO).As the MJO convections occur over the equatorial Indian Ocean(MJO phases 1-4),the low-level moisture convergence is enhanced over southern China(SC,108°-120°E,21°-26°N)with the divergence to the north.Thus,a positive anomaly of PHR amount appears in SC but a negative anomaly of PHR amount is seen in the Yangtze River valley(YR,113°-122°E,28°-30°N).In contrast,the divergence(convergence)of moisture flux anomalies in the SC(YR)associated with the western equatorial Pacific MJO convections(phases 5-8)limits(benefits)the occurrence of PHR in the SC(YR).The wintertime PHR over southern China is found to undergo a long-term change over the past three decades(1979-2011)with a decreasing(an increasing)trend of PHR amount in the SC(YR).The change in PHR amount occurs consistently with the decadal change in MJO activity.In the earlier decade(1979-1994,E1),the active Indian Ocean(western Pacific)MJO events appeared more frequently while they became less frequent in the recent decade(1995-2011,E2).Accordingly,the Indian Ocean(western Pacific)MJO-related moisture convergence(divergence)anomalies in the SC tend to be weakened(enhanced),contributing to the decrease in PHR amount over the SC in the recent decade.

Comparison of two types of persistent heavy rainfall events during sixteen warm seasons in the Sichuan Basin

Based on hourly precipitation from national surface stations,persistent heavy rainfall events(PHREs)over the Sichuan Basin(SCB)are explored during the warm season(May to September)from 2000 to 2015 to compare synoptic circulations and maintenance mechanisms between different PHRE types.There are two main types of PHREs:one is characterized by a rain belt west of 106°E over the SCB(WSB-PHREs),and the other features a rain belt east of 106°E over the SCB(ESB-PHREs).In total,there are 18 ESB-PHREs and 10 WSB-PHREs during the study period.Overall,the rain belts of WSB-PHREs are along the terrain distribution east of the Tibetan Plateau,while the precipitation intensity of ESB-PHREs is stronger.For the two types of PHREs,the shortwave trough over the SCB and the western Pacific subtropical high act as their favorable background environments,particularly for ESB-PHREs.The water vapor of WSB-PHREs is mainly transported from the South China Sea,whereas for ESB-PHREs the South China Sea and Bay of Bengal are their main moisture sources.The composite vorticity budgets of southwest vortices during their mature stage indicate that the convergence effect is a dominant factor for maintaining the two types of PHREs,and the strong vertical vorticity advection is also favorable,but the relative contribution of vertical advection is larger for WSB-PHREs.

How Frequently Will the Persistent Heavy Rainfall over the Middle and Lower Yangtze River Basin in Summer 2020 Happen under Global Warming?

The middle and lower Yangtze River basin(MLYRB)suffered persistent heavy rainfall in summer 2020,with nearly continuous rainfall for about six consecutive weeks.How the likelihood of persistent heavy rainfall resembling that which occurred over the MLYRB in summer 2020(hereafter 2020PHR-like event)would change under global warming is investigated.An index that reflects maximum accumulated precipitation during a consecutive five-week period in summer(Rx35day)is introduced.This accumulated precipitation index in summer 2020 is 60%stronger than the climatology,and a statistical analysis further shows that the 2020 event is a 1-in-70-year event.The model projection results derived from the 50-member ensemble of CanESM2 and the multimodel ensemble(MME)of the CMIP5 and CMIP6 models show that the occurrence probability of the 2020PHR-like event will dramatically increase under global warming.Based on the Kolmogorov-Smirnoff test,one-third of the CMIP5 and CMIP6 models that have reasonable performance in reproducing the 2020PHR-like event in their historical simulations are selected for the future projection study.The CMIP5 and CMIP6 MME results show that the occurrence probability of the 2020PHR-like event under the present-day climate will be double under lower-emission scenarios(CMIP5 RCP4.5,CMIP6 SSP1-2.6,and SSP2-4.5)and 3-5 times greater under higher-emission scenarios(3.0 times for CMIP5 RCP8.5,2.9 times for CMIP6 SSP3-7.0,and 4.8 times for CMIP6 SSP5-8.5).The inter-model spread of the probability change is small,lending confidence to the projection results.The results provide a scientific reference for mitigation of and adaptation to future climate change.

Pre-summer Persistent Heavy Rain over Southern China and Its Relationship with Intra-seasonal Oscillation of Tropical Atmosphere

Based on daily precipitation data supplied by the Chinese meteorological administration,hourly reanalysis datasets provided by the ECMWF and daily outgoing long wave radiation supplied by the NOAA,the evolution regularity of continuous heavy precipitation over Southern China(SC)from April to June in 1979-2020 was systematically analyzed.The interaction between specific humidity and circulation field at the background-scale,the intra-seasonal-scale and the synoptic-scale,and its influence on persistent heavy precipitation over the SC during the April-June rainy season were quantitatively diagnosed and analyzed.The results are as follows.Persistent heavy rainfall events(PHREs)over the SC during the April-June rainy season occur frequently from mid-May to mid-and late-June,exhibiting significant intra-seasonal oscillation(10-30-day)features.Vertically integrated moisture flux convergence(VIMFC)can well represent the variation of the PHREs.A multiscale quantitative diagnosis of the VIMFC shows that the pre-summer PHREs over the SC are mainly affected by the background water vapor(greater than 30 days),intraseasonal circulation disturbance(10-30-day)and background circulation(greater than 30 days),and water vapor convergences are the main factor.The SC is under the control of a warm and humid background and a strong intraseasonal cyclonic circulation,with strong convergence and ascending movements and abundant water vapor conditions during the period of the PHREs.Meanwhile,the westward inter-seasonal oscillation of tropical atmosphere keeps the precipitation system over the SC for several consecutive days,eventually leading to the occurrence,development and persistence of heavy precipitation.

Impact of Multi-Scale Oscillations at High and Low Latitudes on Two Persistent Heavy Rainfall Events in the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River

To investigate the multi-scale features in two persistent heavy rainfall （PHR） events in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River （MLRYR） in June of 1982 and 1998, this study examines the impact of multi-scale oscillations in the north and south of 30°N on the PHR events by performing sensitivity experiments with the Weather Research and Forecast （WRF） model. It is found that the 60-day low- pass perturbation made a trivial contribution to the MLRYR precipitation during the PHR event in 1982. This PHR event resulted mainly from the combined effects of 30-60-day oscillation at low latitudes and 10-30-day oscillation at both high and low latitudes. The southwesterly anomalies associated with the 30- 60-day anticyclonic anomaly over the northwestern Pacific facilitated moisture transport from the ocean to the MLRYR and enhanced the low-level convergence and ascending motion in the MLRYR. This similarly occurred in the 10-30-day oscillation as well. Moreover, the 10 30-day anomalies at high latitudes played a role in strengthening the large-scale low-level convergence over the MLRYR. The PHR event in 1998 was mainly related to the 60-day oscillation at both high and low latitudes and 30-60-day oscillation at low latitudes. The 60-day low-pass filtered anomalous cyclone at high latitudes in the north of 30°N contributed to the development of low-level convergence and ascending motion in northern MLRYR while the anomalous anticyclone at low latitudes in the south of 30°N not only increased the moisture in the MLRYR but also preconditioned the dynamical factors favorable for PHR over the whole area. The 30-60-day perturbations located north and south of 30°N worked together producing positive moisture anomaly in the MLRYR. In addition, the anomalous circulation in the south of 30°N tended to favor the development of ascending motion and low-level convergence in the MLRYR.

Persistent Heavy Rainfall over South China During May–August:Subseasonal Anomalies of Circulation and Sea Surface Temperature

This study investigates the relationship between subseasonal variations of the circulation and sea surface temperature（SST） over the South China–East Asian coastal region（EACR） in association with the persistent heavy rainfall（PHR） events over South China during May–August through statistical analysis. Based on the intensity threshold and duration criterion of the daily rainfall, a total of 63 May–June（MJ） and 59July–August（JA） PHR events are selected over South China from 1979 to 2011. The lower-level circulation anomalies on subseasonal timescale exhibit an anomalous cyclone over South China and an anomalous anticyclone shaped like a tongue over the South China Sea（SCS） during the PHR events for MJ group.The anomalous cyclone over South China in MJ originates from low-value systems in the mid-high latitudes before the rainfall. The anomalous anticyclone over the SCS is due to the westward extension of the western Pacific subtropical high（WPSH） and the southeastward propagation of the anomalous anticyclone from South China before the rainfall. For JA group, the lower-level anomalous circulation pattern is similar to that for MJ over the South China–EACR, but with di？erent features of propagation. The subseasonal anomalous anticyclone is also related to the westward stretch of the WPSH, while the anomalous cyclone is traced back to the weak anomalous cyclone over the Philippine Sea several days before the rainfall events.Positive SST anomaly（SSTA） is observed over the SCS and the Philippine Sea during the MJ PHR events on the subseasonal timescale. It is closely linked with the variation of local anomalous anticyclone. In contrast, negative SSTA occupies the South China coastal region for the JA PHR events, and it is driven by the anomalous cyclone which propagates northwestward from the Philippine Sea. The subseasonal positive（negative） SSTAs are generated via the local processes of above（below）-normal incident solar radiation and below（above）-normal latent heat fluxes. The possible role of the subseasonal SSTA in the local convective instability is also analyzed in this study.

Classification of Persistent Heavy Rainfall Events over South China and Associated Moisture Source Analysis

Persistent heavy rainfall events （PHREs） over South China during 1981 2014 were selected and classified by an objective method, based on the daily precipitation data at 752 stations in China. The circulation characteristics, as well as the dry-cold air and moisture sources of each type of PHREs were examined. The main results are as follows. A total of 32 non-typhoon influenced PHREs in South China were identified over the study period. By correlation analysis, the PHREs are divided into three types： SC-A type, with its main rainbelt located in the coastal areas and the northeast of Guangdong Province; SC-B type, with its main rainbelt between Guangdong Province and Guangxi Region; and SC-C type, with its main rainbelt located in the north of Guangxi Region. For the SC-A events, dry-cold air flew to South China under the steering effect of troughs in the middle troposphere which originated from the Ural Mountains and West Siberia Plain; whereas, the SC-C events were not influenced by the cold air from high latitudes. There were three water vapor pathways from low-latitude areas for both the SC-A and SC-C PHREs. The tropical Indian Ocean was the main water vapor source for these two PHRE types, while the South China Sea also contributed to the SC-C PHREs. In addition, the SC-A events were also influenced by moist and cold air originating from the Yellow Sea. Generally, the SC-C PHREs belonged to a warm-sector rainfall type, whose precipitation areas were dominated by southwesterly wind, and the convergence in wind speed was the main reason for precipitation.

Decadal and Interannual Variability of Persistent Heavy Rainfall Events over the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River Valley

This study investigates the relationship between the anomalous atmospheric circulation pattern and summertime persistent heavy rainfall(PHR)over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley(MLYRV)on the decadal and interannual timescales.Based on the gridded daily rainfall data of the US Climate Prediction Center,the PHR events on grid-point and the regional PHR events considering both the area of PHR and regionally averaged rainfall intensity are identified over the MLYRV during the summers of 1979–2017.A PHR index(PHRI)is defined,to describe the variability of summertime PHR event number over the MLYRV.The PHRI is then divided into the decadal and interannual components.Further analysis reveals that the decadal PHR events are closely related to anomalous precipitation,intensified vertical motion,and strengthened upper-level divergence over southern China,as well as an anomalous anticyclone over the western Pacific transporting more water vapor from the South China Sea(SCS)to southern China.As for the interannual component,the above pattern still co-exists but over a narrow region around the MLYRV.By choosing the years in which the decadal and interannual components of the PHRI are simultaneously positive(SP)or negative(SN),the features of regional PHR events in SP and SN years are analyzed,respectively.The results show that there are more regional PHR events in SP years with enhanced intensity and larger affected areas compared with those in SN years.Meanwhile,the zonal oscillations of the South Asian high(SAH)and the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH)during the regional PHR events demonstrate a better regularity in SP years than those in SN years.

The Persistent Heavy Rainfall over Southern China in June 2010:Evolution of Synoptic Systems and the Effects of the Tibetan Plateau Heating

This study investigates influencing weather systems for and the effect of Tibetan Plateau （TP）’s surface heating on the heavy rainfall over southern China in June 2010, focusing on the four persistent heavy rainfall events during 14-24 June 2010. The ma jor weather systems include the South Asian high, midlatitude trough and ridge, western Pacific subtropical high in the middle troposphere, and shear lines and eastward-moving vortices in the lower troposphere. An ensemble of convection-permitting simulations （CTL） is carried out with the WRF model for these rainfall events, which successfully reproduce the observed evolution of precipitation and weather systems. Another ensemble of simulations （SEN） with the surface albedo over the TP and its southern slope changed artificially to one, i.e., the surface does not absorb any solar heating, otherwise it is identical to CTL, is also performed. Comparison between CTL and SEN suggests that the surface sensible heating of TP in CTL significantly affects the temperature distributions over the plateau and its surroundings, and the thermal wind adjustment consequently changes atmospheric circulations and properties of the synoptic systems, leading to intensified precipitation over southern China. Specifically, at 200 hPa, anticyclonic and cyclonic anomalies form over the western and eastern plateau, respectively, which enhances the southward cold air intrusion along the eastern TP and the divergence over southern China;at 500 hPa, the ridge over the northern plateau and the trough over eastern China are strengthened, the southwesterly flows along the northwestern side of the subtropical high are intensified, and the positive vorticity propagation from the plateau to its downstream is also enhanced significantly;at 850 hPa, the low-pressure vortices strongly develop and move eastward while the southwesterly low-level jet over southern China strengthens in CTL, leading to increased water vapor convergence and upward motion over the precipitation region.

Energy Budgets on the Interactions between the Mean and Eddy Flows during a Persistent Heavy Rainfall Event over the Yangtze River Valley in Summer 2010

In this study,a persistent heavy rainfall event（PHRE） that lasted for around 9 days（from 0000 UTC 17 to0000 UTC 26 June 2010） and caused accumulated precipitation above 600 mm over the Yangtze River valley,was reasonably reproduced by the advanced research WRF model.Based on the simulation,a set of energy budget equations that divided the real meteorological field into the mean and eddy flows were calculated so as to understand the interactions between the precipitation-related eddy flows and their background circulations（BCs）.The results indicated that the precipitation-related eddy flows interacted with their BCs intensely during the PHRE.At different layers,the energy cycles showed distinct characteristics.In the upper troposphere,downscaled energy cascade processes appeared,which favored the maintenance of upper-level eddy flows;whereas,a baroclinic energy conversion,which reduced the upper-level jet,also occurred.In the middle troposphere,significant upscaled energy cascade processes,which reflect the eddy flows＇ reactionary effects on their BCs,appeared.These effects cannot be ignored with respect to the BCs＇ evolution,and the reactionary effects were stronger in the dynamical field than in the thermodynamical field.In the lower troposphere,a long-lived quasi-stationary lower-level shear line was the direct trigger for the PHRE.The corresponding eddy flows were sustained mainly through the baroclinic energy conversion associated with convection activities.Alongside this,the downscaled energy cascade processes of kinetic energy,which reflect the direct influences of BCs on the precipitation-related eddy flows,were also favorable.A downscaled energy cascade of exergy also appeared in the lower troposphere,which favored the precipitation-related eddy flow indirectly via the baroclinic energy conversion.

Comparison of the Multi-Scale Features in Two Persistent Heavy Rainfall Events in the Middle and Lower Reaches of Yangtze River

Two persistent heavy rainfall（PHR） events in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River（MLYR）occurring in June 1982 and 1998 are studied in this paper.Though both events happened in the Meiyu season,their large-scale background and developing processes were quite different.During the PHR event in 1982,the Lake Baikal area was occupied by a strong westerly trough and the western Pacific subtropical high（WPSH） was stronger and more westward-extending than the normal years.Under such a condition,the cold dry air and warm moist air were continuously transported to the MLYR and favored the PHR there.For the event in 1998,the WPSH was similar to that in 1982,while the westerly trough in the Lake Baikal area was comparatively weak and a shortwave trough situating in East China contributed to advect cold dry air to the MLYR.It is found that the high-latitude trough was closely related to the 1030-day low-frequency oscillation while the anomaly of WPSH was linked with the combined effect of both30 60- and 10 30-day low-frequency oscillations in the PHR event in 1982.By contrast,the 60-day low-pass perturbation demonstrated positive impact on the westward extension of WPSH and development of the Baikal trough while the 30 60-day oscillation played a role in strengthening the shortwave trough in East China and the WPSH in the case of 1998.Though the low-latitude 30 60-day oscillations contributed to the intensification and westward extension of the WPSH in both PHR events,their evolution exhibited evident differences.In the 1982 case,the 30 60-day anomalies originated from the western Indian Ocean were much more like the Madden Julian Oscillation,while its counterpart in the 1998 case was much more similar to the first mode of the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation.

基于SOM的长江流域持续性强降水过程典型环流的客观分型

利用1961—2021年逐日降水格点化观测资料和ERA5再分析资料,基于无监督深度学习的自组织特征映射神经网络(SOM)方法,将与中国长江流域夏季持续性强降水过程对应的大尺度环流客观划分成4种典型环流型(P1—P4)。各环流型呈现出的关键环流系统配置影响异常雨带的形成及落区。P1和P3中、高纬度分别为典型的单阻型和双阻型环流形势,且西太平洋副热带高压(简称副高)显著偏强并向西延伸。P2和P4表现出较为明显的低压异常,P2中的巴尔喀什湖到贝加尔湖以西为宽广低槽,贝加尔湖以东为脊区,形成入梅期间的稳定环流形势,长江流域受到低值系统的控制,副高位置靠南。P4在巴尔喀什湖以西和以东分别表现出位势高度异常偏低和偏高,长江流域表现为气旋性环流异常,同时副高位置偏北。P1、P2有来自高纬度冷空气的影响,P3和P4的冷空气较弱。以副高北跳为主要特征的东亚夏季风向北推进与4种环流型的出现以及相应的雨带位置有紧密联系,P1、P2主要对应6月至7月上旬持续性强降水,P3、P4则主要对应7月上旬至8月持续性强降水,导致P1和P2降水异常中心位于长江中下游的江南地区,P3和P4的降水异常中心分别位于长江流域和长江以北地区。P1、P3的水汽输送相比另外两类明显偏强,造成的降水强度也更强。此外,对典型环流型的稳定性分析表明,长江流域持续性强降水过程与上述4种典型环流型的稳定维持密不可分。持续性强降水过程中93.2%的环流表现出持续性的特征,P1和P2、P3和P4持续天数分别主要集中在5和3 d。从长期趋势来看,P1和P3环流型出现频次增多,P2和P4趋于减少。这意味着从有利环流的角度来说,持续性强降水倾向于在长江以南和长江中下游地区发生。

盛夏西太平洋副热带高压北跳异常特征及气候影响分析

利用1979—2021年ERA5再分析资料,分析了盛夏西太平洋副热带高压(简称西太副高)北跳异常特征,研究了不同传播方向的热带大气低频信号对盛夏西太副高北跳异常的可能影响,探讨了西太副高北跳异常对我国东部地区夏季气候的影响。结果表明:盛夏期间,在西太副高北跳偏早年的北跳之前三候里,海洋性大陆地区和西太平洋低纬度地区的OLR场表现为异常的低频对流抑制逐渐北传和西北传,伴随着对流层低频非绝热加热负异常传播到副热带地区,从而在副热带到中纬度西北太平洋呈现出低频正位势高度异常,有利于盛夏期间西太副高北跳。在盛夏西太副高北跳偏晚年的北跳之前三候里,副热带西太平洋OLR为对流抑制异常的逐候增强并西北传,对应的对流层非绝热加热负异常也逐渐西北传,并激发出北太平洋上空的低频波列,该低频波列中的中纬度异常反气旋西移,有利于西太副高北跳。在盛夏西太副高北跳偏早年,我国长江以北地区更易出现极端高温,东北、黄淮和江南地区更易发生持续性强降水;在偏晚年,我国西南和江南地区更易出现极端高温,长江中下游地区更易出现强度更强的持续性强降水事件。