Petroleum is a kind of fundamental energy resource. Its price fluctuation transmits from upper-stream industry to the lower-stream industry as the production factors price changes. And this leads to the price changes ...Petroleum is a kind of fundamental energy resource. Its price fluctuation transmits from upper-stream industry to the lower-stream industry as the production factors price changes. And this leads to the price changes of final consumption. Meantime, due to the cycle of industrial chain, the price changes of lower-stream industry also affect the upper-stream industry in return. This price transmission path is quite complicated. Firstly, it includes both direct and indirect paths; secondly, the transmission process is accompanied with time delay. The traditional input-output price model based on cost-push theory can efficiently solve the first problem when estimating the impact of price fluctuation on the whole price system. However, it neither reflects the dynamic characteristics of price transmission with time nor solves the second problem. To solve this problem, this paper uses the directed weighted network to describe the price transmission among industrial sectors by taking the time-dimension into account, and dynamic price transmission network model is constructed. This model not only describes transmission time delay more accurately, but also calculates the price fluctuation dynamically. On this basis, by utilizing the 2007 Chinese input-output table, this paper conducts empirical analysis on the impact of petroleum price fluctuation on other sectors. The empirical results indicate that the price fluctuation transmission mainly depends on two factors, the orice reaction period Tk and the consumption relationship with petroleum aik. 1） If t 〈 Tk, then the price change of sector k at period t △pkt = 0, the petroleum price fluctuation has not transmitted to the sector k, so the price of sector k remains unchanged. 2） If t 〉 Tk, then Apt 〉 0, and the greater aik, the higher price change rate. 3） If t →∞, it is the same with that in traditional input-output price model. So it can be clearly seen that dynamic price transmission network model is more general than the traditional model, and the traditional model is just an asymptotical special case when time approaches to infinity. Keywords Directed weighted network, input-output price model, petroleum price, transmission time delay.展开更多
Petroleum coke is the?third?leading refined petroleum product export from the US behind distillate fuel oil. Legal challenges and proposals could either increase the cost or restrict the transportation of petroleum co...Petroleum coke is the?third?leading refined petroleum product export from the US behind distillate fuel oil. Legal challenges and proposals could either increase the cost or restrict the transportation of petroleum coke. This paper develops an econometric model of world markets for refined petroleum markets to estimate the effects of such restrictions. The model is used to estimate how supply, demand, trade flows, and prices would adjust under a shutdown of US petroleum coke production. The market impacts are significant, withsubstantially higher prices for jet fuel and petroleum coke, significantly higher prices for gasoline and other products, and sharply lower prices for residual fuel oil. Over a four-year simulation of the model, the US petroleum trade balance deteriorates by $85 billion and consumers pay over $187 and $376 billion more for refined petroleum products in the US and the rest of the world respectively.展开更多
This paper mainly talks about the main layer analytical method, and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, fuzzy hierarchical analysis (AHP) method of a deeper connotation, and further discusses its application in bidding qu...This paper mainly talks about the main layer analytical method, and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, fuzzy hierarchical analysis (AHP) method of a deeper connotation, and further discusses its application in bidding quotation for petroleum geophysical prospecting project. Fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP) integrates many merits of AHP and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation organically. It determines the weight of each affecting factor using analytic hierarchy process at first, and then uses the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to determine each scheme index. FAHP can effectively enhance the decision-making efficiency.展开更多
China’s national oil and gas companies saw their profits slump during the first six months of 2015,with the levels falling to the lowest in five years,according to financial reports.The first-half reports for China’...China’s national oil and gas companies saw their profits slump during the first six months of 2015,with the levels falling to the lowest in five years,according to financial reports.The first-half reports for China’s＂big three＂ oil companies - China National Petroleum （CNPC）, China Petrochenlical Corporation, as Sinopec. and China National Offshore Oil Corporation also known Corporation （CNOOC） - showed that CNPC＇s profit tell by more than 60 percent to 25.4 billion yuan （US$3.98 billion）, Sinopec by 22 percent to 25.4 billion yuan, and CNOOC by more than 50 percent to 14.7 billion yuan.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos.71003115 and 70903068Collaborative Innovation Center,Research Innovation Team Supporting Plan of the Central University of Finance and Economics,Beijing Higher Education Young Elite Teacher Project under Grant No.YETP0964the Ministry of Education of Humanities and Social Science Youth Fund Project under Grant No.11YJC790114
文摘Petroleum is a kind of fundamental energy resource. Its price fluctuation transmits from upper-stream industry to the lower-stream industry as the production factors price changes. And this leads to the price changes of final consumption. Meantime, due to the cycle of industrial chain, the price changes of lower-stream industry also affect the upper-stream industry in return. This price transmission path is quite complicated. Firstly, it includes both direct and indirect paths; secondly, the transmission process is accompanied with time delay. The traditional input-output price model based on cost-push theory can efficiently solve the first problem when estimating the impact of price fluctuation on the whole price system. However, it neither reflects the dynamic characteristics of price transmission with time nor solves the second problem. To solve this problem, this paper uses the directed weighted network to describe the price transmission among industrial sectors by taking the time-dimension into account, and dynamic price transmission network model is constructed. This model not only describes transmission time delay more accurately, but also calculates the price fluctuation dynamically. On this basis, by utilizing the 2007 Chinese input-output table, this paper conducts empirical analysis on the impact of petroleum price fluctuation on other sectors. The empirical results indicate that the price fluctuation transmission mainly depends on two factors, the orice reaction period Tk and the consumption relationship with petroleum aik. 1） If t 〈 Tk, then the price change of sector k at period t △pkt = 0, the petroleum price fluctuation has not transmitted to the sector k, so the price of sector k remains unchanged. 2） If t 〉 Tk, then Apt 〉 0, and the greater aik, the higher price change rate. 3） If t →∞, it is the same with that in traditional input-output price model. So it can be clearly seen that dynamic price transmission network model is more general than the traditional model, and the traditional model is just an asymptotical special case when time approaches to infinity. Keywords Directed weighted network, input-output price model, petroleum price, transmission time delay.
文摘Petroleum coke is the?third?leading refined petroleum product export from the US behind distillate fuel oil. Legal challenges and proposals could either increase the cost or restrict the transportation of petroleum coke. This paper develops an econometric model of world markets for refined petroleum markets to estimate the effects of such restrictions. The model is used to estimate how supply, demand, trade flows, and prices would adjust under a shutdown of US petroleum coke production. The market impacts are significant, withsubstantially higher prices for jet fuel and petroleum coke, significantly higher prices for gasoline and other products, and sharply lower prices for residual fuel oil. Over a four-year simulation of the model, the US petroleum trade balance deteriorates by $85 billion and consumers pay over $187 and $376 billion more for refined petroleum products in the US and the rest of the world respectively.
文摘This paper mainly talks about the main layer analytical method, and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, fuzzy hierarchical analysis (AHP) method of a deeper connotation, and further discusses its application in bidding quotation for petroleum geophysical prospecting project. Fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP) integrates many merits of AHP and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation organically. It determines the weight of each affecting factor using analytic hierarchy process at first, and then uses the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to determine each scheme index. FAHP can effectively enhance the decision-making efficiency.
文摘China’s national oil and gas companies saw their profits slump during the first six months of 2015,with the levels falling to the lowest in five years,according to financial reports.The first-half reports for China’s＂big three＂ oil companies - China National Petroleum （CNPC）, China Petrochenlical Corporation, as Sinopec. and China National Offshore Oil Corporation also known Corporation （CNOOC） - showed that CNPC＇s profit tell by more than 60 percent to 25.4 billion yuan （US$3.98 billion）, Sinopec by 22 percent to 25.4 billion yuan, and CNOOC by more than 50 percent to 14.7 billion yuan.
