Comparative Assessment of Impacts of Future Climate Change on Runoff in Upper Daqinghe Basin,China

Assessing runoff changes is of great importance especially its responses to the projected future climate change on local scale basins because such analyses are generally done on global and regional scales which may lead to generalized conclusions rather than specific ones.Climate change affected the runoff variation in the past in the upper Daqinghe Basin,however,the climate was mainly considered uncertain and still needs further studies,especially its future impacts on runoff for better water resources management and planning.Integrated with a set of climate simulations,a daily conceptual hydrological model(MIKE11-NAM)was applied to assess the impact of climate change on runoff conditions in the Daomaguan,Fuping and Zijingguan basins in the upper Daqinghe Basin.Historical hydrological data(2008–2017)were used to evaluate the applicability of the MIKE11-NAM model.After bias correction,future projected climate change and its impacts on runoff(2025–2054)were analysed and compared to the baseline period(1985–2014)under three shared social economic pathways(SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,and SSP5-8.5)scenarios from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)simulations.The MIKE-11 NAM model was applicable in all three Basins,with both R^(2)and Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency coefficients greater than 0.6 at daily scale for both calibration(2009–2011)and validation(2012–2017)periods,respectively.Although uncertainties remain,temperature and precipitation are projected to increase compared to the baseline where higher increases in precipitation and temperature are projected to occur under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios,respectively in all the basins.Precipitation changes will range between 12%–19%whereas temperature change will be 2.0℃–2.5℃ under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios,respectively.In addition,higher warming is projected to occur in colder months than in warmer months.Overall,the runoff of these three basins is projected to respond to projected climate changes differently because runoff is projected to only increase in the Fuping basin under SSP2-4.5 whereas decreases in both Daomaguan and Zijingguan Basins under all scenarios.This study’s findings could be important when setting mitigation strategies for climate change and water resources management.

A CMIP6-based assessment of regional climate change in the Chinese Tianshan Mountains

Climate warming profoundly affects hydrological changes,agricultural production,and human society.Arid and semi-arid areas of China are currently displaying a marked trend of warming and wetting.The Chinese Tianshan Mountains(CTM)have a high climate sensitivity,rendering the region particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate warming.In this study,we used monthly average temperature and monthly precipitation data from the CN05.1 gridded dataset(1961-2014)and 24 global climate models(GCMs)of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)to assess the applicability of the CMIP6 GCMs in the CTM at the regional scale.Based on this,we conducted a systematic review of the interannual trends,dry-wet transitions(based on the standardized precipitation index(SPI)),and spatial distribution patterns of climate change in the CTM during 1961-2014.We further projected future temperature and precipitation changes over three terms(near-term(2021-2040),mid-term(2041-2060),and long-term(2081-2100))relative to the historical period(1961-2014)under four shared socio-economic pathway(SSP)scenarios(i.e.,SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7.0,and SSP5-8.5).It was found that the CTM had experienced significant warming and wetting from 1961 to 2014,and will also experience warming in the future(2021-2100).Substantial warming in 1997 was captured by both the CN05.1 derived from interpolating meteorological station data and the multi-model ensemble(MME)from the CMIP6 GCMs.The MME simulation results indicated an apparent wetting in 2008,which occurred later than the wetting observed from the CN05.1 in 1989.The GCMs generally underestimated spring temperature and overestimated both winter temperature and spring precipitation in the CTM.Warming and wetting are more rapid in the northern part of the CTM.By the end of the 21st century,all the four SSP scenarios project warmer and wetter conditions in the CTM with multiple dry-wet transitions.However,the rise in precipitation fails to counterbalance the drought induced by escalating temperature in the future,so the nature of the drought in the CTM will not change at all.Additionally,the projected summer precipitation shows negative correlation with the radiative forcing.This study holds practical implications for the awareness of climate change and subsequent research in the CTM.

CMIP 6 models simulation of the connection between North/South Pacific Meridional Mode and ENSO

The subtropical North and South Pacific Meridional Modes(NPMM and SPMM)are well known precursors of El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO).However,relationship between them is not constant.In the early 1980,the relationship experienced an interdecadal transition.Changes in this connection can be attributed mainly to the phase change of the Pacific decadal oscillation(PDO).During the positive phase of PDO,a shallower thermocline in the central Pacific is responsible for the stronger trade wind charging(TWC)mechanism,which leads to a stronger equatorial subsurface temperature evolution.This dynamic process strengthens the connection between NPMM and ENSO.Associated with the negative phase of PDO,a shallower thermocline over southeastern Pacific allows an enhanced wind-evaporation-SST(WES)feedback,strengthening the connection between SPMM and ENSO.Using 35 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)models,we examined the NPMM/SPMM performance and its connection with ENSO in the historical runs.The great majority of CMIP6 models can reproduce the pattern of NPMM and SPMM well,but they reveal discrepant ENSO and NPMM/SPMM relationship.The intermodal uncertainty for the connection of NPMM-ENSO is due to different TWC mechanism.A stronger TWC mechanism will enhance NPMM forcing.For SPMM,few models can simulate a good relationship with ENSO.The intermodel spread in the relationship of SPMM and ENSO owing to SST bias in the southeastern Pacific,as WES feedback is stronger when the southeastern Pacific is warmer.

Projected Regional 1.50℃and 2.00℃Warming Threshold-crossing Time Worldwide Using the CMIP6 Models

The Paris Agreement aims to limit global warming to well below 2.00℃and pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.50℃.However,the response of climate change to unbalanced global warming is affected by spatial and temporal sensitivities.To better understand the regional warming response to global warming at 1.50℃and 2.00℃,we detected the 1.50℃and 2.00℃warming threshold-crossing time(WTT)above pre-industrial levels globally using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6(CMIP6)models.Our findings indicate that the 1.50℃or 2.00℃WTT differs substantially worldwide.The warming rate of land would be approximately 1.35–1.46 times that of the ocean between 60°N–60°S in 2015–2100.Consequently,the land would experience a 1.50℃(2.00℃)warming at least 10–20 yr earlier than the time when the global mean near-surface air temperature reaches 1.50℃(2.00℃)WTT.Meanwhile,the Southern Ocean between 0°and 60°S considerably slows down the global 1.50℃and 2.00℃WTT.In 2040–2060,over 98.70%(77.50%),99.70%(89.30%),99.80%(93.40%),and 100.00%(98.00%)of the land will have warmed by over 1.50℃(2.00℃)under SSP(Shared Socioeconomic Pathway)1–2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7.0,and SSP5-8.5,respectively.We conclude that regional 1.50℃(2.00℃)WTT should be fully considered,especially in vulnerable high-latitude and high-altitude regions.

Ghost artifact removal in EPI using projection in hybrid-space

Ghost artifacts occur in magnetic resonance imaging （MRI） reconstruction because odd and even echoes have different phase offsets. A method based on the projection in hybrid-space is described to remove ghost artifacts. First, the projection of the even and odd lines along phase-encoding direction in hybrid-space was used to estimate the phase difference between odd and even echoes. Secondly, we fit the phase difference and used it to correct the phase of even or odd echoes. Finally, the corrected image was obtained by performing the inverse Fourier transform along phase-encoding direction in hybrid-space. The experimental results show that linear and nonlinear differences can be corrected and the intensity of ghost artifacts is significantly reduced. The effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated in ghost artifact removal.

CMIP6模式对中国东部地区水循环的模拟能力评估

本文基于观测和再分析资料,采用Brubaker二元模型评估了第六次国际耦合模式比较计划(CMIP6)中19个模式对中国东部季风区气候态水循环过程的模拟能力,并分析了模拟误差来源。结果表明,CMIP6模式集合平均(MME)能够合理再现观测降水和蒸发的年平均气候态空间分布及年循环特征,与观测值的空间相关系数分别为0.92和0.87。较之观测,MME高估了华北地区降水(0.55 mm d^(−1)),低估了华南沿海地区降水(−0.3 mm d^(−1))。所有CMIP6模式均高估蒸发强度(偏差0.03~0.98 mm d^(−1)),使得模拟的降水与蒸发之差偏少。模式整体能够模拟出我国东部季风区降水再循环率及不同边界水汽来源的贡献率,但低估了由南边界进入季风区的水汽贡献,导致东亚季风区偏干。通过分析模式对影响水汽通量的两个气象要素(风速和大气比湿)的模拟能力,发现研究区南边界的风速大小决定了模式间水汽输送差异。南边界风速越大的模式,由南边界进入的水汽通量越大,模式模拟的降水越多。西北太平洋辐合带的东西位置是影响南边界南风速的重要系统之一,辐合带位置偏东的模式模拟的南风强度较弱,使得水汽输送偏弱、降水偏少;反之,南边界水汽输送偏强、降水偏多。本文通过评估最新一代CMIP6模式在东亚水循环方面的模拟性能,指出了当前气候模式在模拟西太平洋辐合带位置方面存在的偏差及其对东亚水循环的影响。

Seabed deposition and erosion change and influence factors in the Yangshan Deepwater Port over the years

The seabed scouring and silting are very important to the construction of port and waterway engineering. Seabed deposition and erosion change is complicated due to the influence of sediment supply, human activities and other factors. The Yangshan Deepwater Port is the new deep water harbor, which is an important part of the Shanghai International Shipping Service Center. Its construction has received much attention. At present, the water depth from the 1 st to the 3 rd harbor district is currently suitable under regular dredging and tidal current action. The fourth harbor district will be built in the world’s largest fully-automated deep water wharf. In the study, bathymetry change of the entire sea area of the Yangshan Deepwater Port and the 4 th harbor district(i.e.,Phase IV project) waters were analyzed quantitatively using multiyear bathymetric, hydrological and sediment data. The results show that from 1998 to 2010, seabed changes are characterized by large volumes of erosion and sedimentation, which the southern part was deposited and the northern part was eroded in the inner harbor waters, but the seabed of the Kezhushan inlet was eroded. Seabed changes of Phase IV project waters generally show a scour tendency in recent few years with the annual scour rate about 0.7 m. Among the many factors, the existence of Kezhushan inlet and its influence of the western water flow play an important positive role in water depth changes under the ebb tide action.

Relationships of Interannual Variability Between the Equatorial Pacific and Tropical Indian Ocean in 17 CMIP5 Models

Seventeen coupled general circulation models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 （CMIP5） are employed to assess the relationships of interannual variations of sea surface temperature （SST） between the tropical Pacific （TP） and tropical Indian Ocean （TIO）. The eastern/central equatorial Pacific features the strongest SST interannual variability in the models except for the model CSIRO-Mk3-6-0, and the simulated maximum and minimum are produced by models GFDL-ESM2M and GISS-E2-H respectively. However, It remains a challenge for these models to simulate the correct climate mean SST with the warm pool-cold tongue structure in the equatorial Pacific. Almost all models reproduce E1 Nifio-Southem Oscillation （ENSO）, Indian Ocean Dipole mode （IOD） and Indian Ocean Basin-wide mode （lOB） together with their seasonal phase lock features being simulated; but the relationship between the ENSO and IOD is different for different models. Consistent with the observation, an Indian Ocean basin-wide warming （cooling） takes place over the tropical Indian Ocean in the spring following an E1 Nifio （La Nifia） in almost all the models. In some models （e.g., GFDL-ESM2G and MIROC5）, positive ENSO and IOB events are stronger than the negative events as shown in the observation. However, this asymmetry is reversed in some other models （e.g., HadGEM2-CC and HadGEM2-ES）.

A convenient look-up-table based method for the compensation of non-linear error in digital fringe projection

Although the structured light system that uses digital fringe projection has been widely implemented in three-dimensional surface profile measurement, the measurement system is susceptible to non-linear error. In this work, we propose a convenient look-up-table-based （LUT-based） method to compensate for the non-linear error in captured fringe patterns. Without extra calibration, this LUT-based method completely utilizes the captured fringe pattern by recording the full-field differences. Then, a phase compensation map is established to revise the measured phase. Experimental results demonstrate that this method works effectively.

Global air-sea CO_(2) exchange fl ux since 1980s: results from CMIP6 Earth System Models

The ocean could profoundly modulate the ever-increasing atmospheric CO_(2) by air-sea CO_(2) exchange process,which is also able to cause signifi cant changes of physical and biogeochemical properties in return.In this study,we assessed the long-term average and spatial-temporal variability of global air-sea CO_(2) exchange fl ux(F CO_(2))since 1980s basing on the results of 18 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)Earth System Models(ESMs).Our fi ndings indicate that the CMIP6 ESMs simulated global CO_(2) sink in recent three decades ranges from 1.80 to 2.24 Pg C/a,which is coincidence with the results of cotemporaneous observations.What’s more,the CMIP6 ESMs consistently show that the global oceanic CO_(2) sink has gradually intensifi ed since 1980s as well as the observations.This study confi rms the simulated F CO_(2) could reach agreements with the observations in the aspect of primary climatological characteristics,however,the simulation skills of CIMP6 ESMs in diverse open-sea biomes are unevenness.None of the 18 CMIP6 ESMs could reproduce the observed F CO_(2) increasement in the central-eastern tropical Pacifi c and the midlatitude Southern Ocean.Defi ciencies of some CMIP6 ESMs in reproducing the atmospheric pressure systems of the Southern Hemisphere and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)mode of the tropical Pacifi c are probably the major causes.

Multidecadal Trends in Large-Scale Annual Mean SATa Based on CMIP5 Historical Simulations and Future Projections

Based on observations and Coupled Model lntercomparison Project Phase 5 （CMIP5） results, multidecadal variations and trends in annual mean surface air temperature anomalies （SATa） at global, hemispheric, and hemispheric land and ocean scales in the past and under the future scenarios of two representative concentration pathways （RCPs） are analyzed. Fifteen models are selected based on their performances in capturing the temporal variability, long-term trend, multidecadal variations, and trends in global annual mean SATa. Observational data analysis shows that the multidecadal variations in annual mean SATa of the land and ocean in the northern hemisphere （NH） and of the ocean in the southern hemisphere （SH） are similar to those of the global mean, showing an increase during the 1900-1944 and 1971-2000 periods, and flattening or even cooling during the 1945-1970 and 2001-2013 periods. These observed characteristics are basically reproduced by the models. However, SATa over SH land show an increase during the 1945-1970 period, which differs from the other hemispheric scales, and this feature is not captured well by the models. For the recent hiatus period （2001-2013）, the projected trends of BCC-CSM1-1-m, CMCC-CM, GFDL-ESM2M, and NorESM1-ME at the global and hemispheric scales are closest to the observations based on RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, suggesting that these four models have better projection capability in SATa. Because these four models are better at simulating and projecting the multidecadal trends of SATa, they are selected to analyze future SATa variations at the global and hemispheric scales during the 2006-2099 period. The selected multi-model ensemble （MME） projected trends in annual mean SATa for the globe, NH, and SH under RCP4.5 （RCP8.5） are 0.17 （0.29） ℃, 0.22 （0.36） ℃, and 0.11 （0.23） ℃-decade-1 in the 21st century, respectively. These values are significantly lower than the projections of CMIP5 MME without model selection.

Climate change impacts on the streamflow of Zarrineh River,Iran

Zarrineh River is located in the northwest of Iran,providing more than 40%of the total inflow into the Lake Urmia that is one of the largest saltwater lakes on the earth.Lake Urmia is a highly endangered ecosystem on the brink of desiccation.This paper studied the impacts of climate change on the streamflow of Zarrineh River.The streamflow was simulated and projected for the period 1992-2050 through seven CMIP5(coupled model intercomparison project phase 5)data series(namely,BCC-CSM1-1,BNU-ESM,CSIRO-Mk3-6-0,GFDL-ESM2G,IPSL-CM5A-LR,MIROC-ESM and MIROC-ESM-CHEM)under RCP2.6(RCP,representative concentration pathways)and RCP8.5.The model data series were statistically downscaled and bias corrected using an artificial neural network(ANN)technique and a Gamma based quantile mapping bias correction method.The best model(CSIRO-Mk3-6-0)was chosen by the TOPSIS(technique for order of preference by similarity to ideal solution)method from seven CMIP5 models based on statistical indices.For simulation of streamflow,a rainfall-runoff model,the hydrologiska byrans vattenavdelning(HBV-Light)model,was utilized.Results on hydro-climatological changes in Zarrineh River basin showed that the mean daily precipitation is expected to decrease from 0.94 and 0.96 mm in 2015 to 0.65 and 0.68 mm in 2050 under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5,respectively.In the case of temperature,the numbers change from 12.33℃ and 12.37℃ in 2015 to 14.28℃ and 14.32℃ in 2050.Corresponding to these climate scenarios,this study projected a decrease of the annual streamflow of Zarrineh River by half from 2015 to 2050 as the results of climatic changes will lead to a decrease in the annual streamflow of Zarrineh River from 59.49 m^(3)/s in 2015 to 22.61 and 23.19 m^(3)/s in 2050.The finding is of important meaning for water resources planning purposes,management programs and strategies of the Lake's endangered ecosystem.

Comparative Study on FFE Activities Between Japanese and Korean NPD Project Success

This study shows the impact of fuzzy front end （FFE） phase during innovation process on new product development （NPD） project success in two East Asian countries--Korea and Japan was explored via employing comparative study. Authors decided to consider two East Asian countries＇ successful periods as comparison samples for the study of this issue. The 1980s are considered to be ＂golden age＂ of Japanese manufacturing firms when they were extremely successful on global market. Korean firms are enjoying competitive advantage in the late 2000s and the beginning of the 2010s. A conceptual model was developed based on previous research. The model was tested using data from 293 Korean manufacturing firms in the late 2000s and from 540 Japanese manufacturing firms in the late 1980s using structural equation modeling （SEM） technique. In both countries, the effect of intensity of planning on efficiency, prior to the development, was high. Moreover, effect of market uncertainties on effectiveness was significant. Therefore, effective initial planning and good analysis of market prior to the development have positive impacts on NPD project success. In the late 80s, in the period of stability of the economy in the world, the Japanese finns were successful concentrating more on FFE activities, such as market and technological research and initial planning. However, in the 2000s when the world economy started to change so fast and the demands for the goods change so fast, the Korean firms became more successful, thanks to flexibility in the system of NPD project strategies where system was not fixed to the initial plans but where the changes within the project execution phase were allowed. Thus Korean and Japanese firms had different strategies in NPD process in the two different periods. Japanese firms were concentrated more on FFE activities and tended to keep initial plans during development process, while the Korean firms were more flexible in project execution phase allowing dramatic changes to the initial plans.

A comparison of the CMIP5 models on the historical simulation of the upper ocean heat content in the South China Sea

Seventeen models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5（CMIP5） activity are compared on their historical simulation of the South China Sea（SCS） ocean heat content（OHC） in the upper 300 m. Ishii＇s temperature data, based on the World Ocean Database 2005（WOD05） and World Ocean Atlas 2005（WOA05）, is used to assess the model performance by comparing the spatial patterns of seasonal OHC anomaly（OHCa） climatology, OHC climatology, monthly OHCa climatology, and interannual variability of OHCa. The spatial patterns in Ishii＇s data set show that the seasonal SCS OHCa climatology, both in winter and summer, is strongly affected by the wind stress and the current circulations in the SCS and its neighboring areas. However, the CMIP5 models present rather different spatial patterns and only a few models properly capture the dominant features in Ishii＇s pattern. Among them, GFDL-ESM2 G is of the best performance. The SCS OHC climatology in the upper 300 m varies greatly in different models. Most of them are much greater than those calculated from Ishii＇s data. However, the monthly OHCa climatology in each of the 17 CMIP5 models yields similar variation and magnitude as that in Ishii＇s. As for the interannual variability, the standard deviations of the OHCa time series in most of the models are somewhat larger than those in Ishii＇s. The correlation between the interannual time series of Ishii＇s OHCa and that from each of the 17 models is not satisfactory. Among them, BCC-CSM1.1 has the highest correlation to Ishii＇s, with a coefficient of about 0.6.

An assessment of the CMIP5 models in simulating the Argo geostrophic meridional transport in the North Pacifi c Ocean

Eleven climate system models that participate in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5(CMIP5)were evaluated based on an assessment of their simulated meridional transports in comparison with the Sverdrup transports.The analyses show that the simulated North Pacifi c Ocean circulation is essentially in Sverdrup balance in most of the 11 models while the Argo geostrophic meridional transports indicate signifi cant non-Sverdrup gyre circulation in the tropical North Pacifi c Ocean.The climate models overestimated the observed tropical and subtropical volume transports signifi cantly.The non-Sverdrup gyre circulation leads to non-Sverdrup heat and salt transports,the absence of which in the CMIP5 simulations suggests defi ciencies of the CMIP5 model dynamics in simulating the realistic meridional volume,heat,and salt transports of the ocean.

A Project of Anhui Shengshi New-energy Co.,Ltd.Put into Production

On July II, 2013, a project ofAnhui Shengshi New- energy Materials and Technology Co., Ltd. was put into production with an annual capacity of 40 thousand tons quartz glass, which was the largest quartz glass production line in the world. The total investment of theproject was CNY 110 million. The new process can save energy over 30% than the traditional one. The project with an annual sales income of CNY 165 million can change the short supply of architectural crystal glass and high-grade ware glass in China＇s market.

First phase project of Huaneng Yingkou Cogeneration Plant completed

On December 2, 2009, Unit 1 of Huaneng Yingkou Cogeneration Plant smoothly passed 168-hour triaoperation. 11 days later, Unit 2 also successfully passed the trial operation. The project