Accounting for Heterogeneity in Stop Frequency Models of Work Tours Using Latent Class Poisson Models

Stop frequency models, as one of the elements of activity based models, represent an important part of travel behavior. Unobserved heterogeneity across the travelers should be taken into consideration to prevent biasedness and inconsistency in the estimated parameters in the stop frequency models. Additionally, previous studies on the stop frequency have mostly been done in larger metropolitan areas and less attention has been paid to the areas with less population. This study addresses these gaps by using 2012 travel data from a medium sized U.S. urban area using the work tour for the case study. Stop in the work tour were classified into three groups of outbound leg, work based subtour, and inbound leg of the commutes. Latent Class Poisson Regression Models were used to analyze the data. The results indicate the presence of heterogeneity across the commuters. Using latent class models significantly improves the predictive power of the models compared to regular one class Poisson regression models. In contrast to one class Poisson models, gender becomes insignificant in predicting the number of tours when unobserved heterogeneity is accounted for. The commuters are associated with increased stops on their work based subtour when the employment density of service-related occupations increases in their work zone, but employment density of retail employment does not significantly contribute to the stop making likelihood of the commuters. Additionally, an increase in the number of work tours was associated with fewer stops on the inbound leg of the commute. The results of this study suggest the consideration of unobserved heterogeneity in the stop frequency models and help transportation agencies and policy makers make better inferences from such models.

Robust Estimators for Poisson Regression

The present paper proposes a new robust estimator for Poisson regression models. We used the weighted maximum likelihood estimators which are regarded as Mallows-type estimators. We perform a Monte Carlo simulation study to assess the performance of a suggested estimator compared to the maximum likelihood estimator and some robust methods. The result shows that, in general, all robust methods in this paper perform better than the classical maximum likelihood estimators when the model contains outliers. The proposed estimators showed the best performance compared to other robust estimators.

Sustainable land management in Mali

This study uses logistic and Poisson regression models to examine the factors influencing the adoption of sustain-able land management(SLM)practices in Mali using two rounds of the nationally representative survey Enquête Agricole de Conjoncture Intégrée aux Conditions de Vie des Ménages.The SLMs considered include the applica-tion of organic fertilizers,the application of inorganic fertilizers,the use of improved seeds,and the practice of intercropping.On average the application of organic fertilizers(39.2%),and inorganic fertilizers(28.7%)are the most frequent SLM practices among Malian farmers,and between 2014 and 2017,we observe a decline in the practice of intercropping.The regression results show that farmers’adoption of different SLMs is significantly associated with biophysical factors(average temperature,climate type,plot size,plot shape,and location),de-mographic factors(age,gender,education,household size),and socioeconomic factors(number of cultivated plots,livelihood diversification,type of crop grown,market access,credit access,economic shocks,and social capital).Our findings suggest that policymakers and agricultural development agencies in Mali need to adopt a multidimensional policy framework to unlock the untapped potential of SLM practices in promoting sustainable agriculture and food security.

Locally R-optimal designs for a class of nonlinear multiple regression models

This paper concerns with optimal designs for a wide class of nonlinear models with informa-tion driven by the linear predictor.The aim of this study is to generate an R-optimal design which minimizes the product of the main diagonal entries of the inverse of the Fisher informa tion matrix at certain values of the parameters.An equivalence theorem for the locally R optimal designs is provided in terms of the intensity function.Analytic solutions for the locally saturated R-optimal designs are derived for the models having linear predictors with and without intercept,respectively.The particle swarm optimization method has been employed to generate locally non-saturated R-optimal designs.Numerical examples are presented for ilustration of the locally R-optimal designs for Poisson regression models and proportional hazards regression models.

Lesser Kestrel Foraging Habitats in Special Protection Areas in Agro-ecosystems

The European Union （EU） Wild Birds Directive recognises that the most serious threats to wild birds＇ conservation in Europe are habitat loss and degradation, and hence, habitats of threatened and migratory species must be protected with the establishment of the network of the special protection areas （SPAs） for migratory and endangered bird species in the EU member states. The major European population of the lesser kestrel Falco naumanni, a migratory falcon listed in Annex I of the Birds Directive, occurs in low-input farming systems in the Mediterranean basin, including Greece. The aim of this study was to identify foraging habitats of lesser kestrels and relate them to the delimited SPAs in the agro-ecosystems of Greece, where the stronghold of the species population for Greece occurs. Foraging habitat preferences were assessed using Poisson regression models （PRMs）. SPAs were examined on whether they can effectively protect foraging habitats for breeding lesser kestrels in the study area. Foraging lesser kestrel abundance was positively associated with grasslands and non-irrigated land （dry cereals）, and negatively associated with irrigated land （wet cotton）, scrubland and woodland. Electricity facilities were used as foraging perches by lesser kestrels. The current SPAs cover a small percentage of the species＇ foraging sites and cannot be considered coherent enough to support and protect the foraging habitats of lesser kestrels and other priority species in the agro-ecosystems of the study area. Proposals for effective conservation of low-input farming systems, supporting priority species, are also presented.

Spatial Heterogeneity Association of HIV Incidence with Socio-economic Factors in Zimbabwe

This study examined the spatial heterogeneity association of HIV incidence and socio-economic factors including poverty severity index,permanently employed females and males,unemployed females,percentage of poor households i.e.,poverty prevalence,night lights index,literacy rate,household food security,and Gini index at district level in Zimbabwe.A mix of spatial analysis methods including Poisson model based on original log likelihood ratios(LLR),global Moran’s I,local indicator of spatial association-LISA were employed to determine the HIV hotspots.Geographically Weighted Poisson Regression(GWPR)and semi-parametric GWPR(s-GWPR)were used to determine the spatial association between HIV incidence and socio-economic factors.HIV incidence(number of cases per 1000)ranged from 0.6(Buhera district)to 13.30(Mangwe district).Spatial clustering of HIV incidence was observed(Global Moran’s I=-0.150;Z score 3.038;p-value 0.002).Significant clusters of HIV were observed at district level.HIV incidence and its association with socio-economic factors varied across the districts except percentage of females unemployed.Intervention programmes to reduce HIV incidence should address the identified socio-economic factors at district level.