Is pass‑through of the exchange rate to restaurant and hotel prices asymmetric in the US?Role of monetary policy uncertainty

This study examines the exchange rate pass-through to the United States(US)restaurant and hotel prices by incorporating the effect of monetary policy uncertainty over the period 2001:M12 to 2019:M01.Using the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag(NARDL)model,empirical evidence indicates asymmetric pass-through of exchange rate and monetary policy uncertainty.Moreover,a stronger pass-through effect is observed during depreciation and a negative shock in monetary policy uncertainty,corroborating asymmetric pass-through predictions.Our results further show that a positive shock in energy prices leads to an increase in restaurant and hotel prices.Furthermore,asymmetric causality indicates that a positive shock in the exchange rate causes a positive shock to restaurant and hotel prices.We found feedback causal effects between positive and negative shocks in monetary policy uncertainty and positive and negative shocks in the exchange rate.Additionally,we detected a one-way asymmetric causality,flowing from a positive(negative)shock to a positive(negative)shock in energy prices.Therefore,these findings provide insights for policymakers to achieve low and stable prices in the US restaurant and hotel industry through sound monetary policy formulations.Highlights.The drivers of restaurant and hotel business in tourism destinations are examined.There is asymmetric pass-through of exchange rate and monetary policy uncertainty.A stronger pass-through is observed during appreciation and a negative shock to monetary policy uncertainty.There is asymmetric causality from positive shock in exchange rate to postive shock in restaurant and hotel prices.

Recent Experience of the Effects of Intervention on Exchange Rates

Recently, foreign exchange rates have been highly volatile all over the world. This article reports on an empirical examination of the effectiveness of foreign exchange market intervention in Tokyo foreign exchange market. In Japan, intervention in the foreign exchange market has occurred frequently and largely. In 2010, exchange rates fluctuated greatly, and the Japanese yen appreciated greatly against other foreign currencies. The Bank of Japan （BOJ） conducted an intervention in the foreign exchange market and bought massive USD to weaken the yen. They are expected to prevent too much appreciation of the yen, to promote export, and expansion of the economy. Recent foreign exchange market intervention in Tokyo has been effective in preventing the Japanese yen from appreciating against other currencies. Also, unsterilization has had a positive effect on depreciation of the yen. Moreover, news announcements by the Bank of Japan （BOJ） has led to depreciation of the yen. Effective announcements would increase the effects on markets. Sterilization in intervention and market communication are both taken into account in this article. The BOJ＇s news announcements seem to convey to markets adequately and communication between the bank and markets functions well. Moreover, the past exchange rate （i.e., the signaling effect） also is important to the movement of exchange rates. On the other hand, portfolio channel is not found

The Appreciation Pressure on RMB Yuan and the Adjustment of RMB Exchange Rate Policy

China has maintained RMB exchange rate nearly unchanged since 1998. However, with the relaxation of capital control, a crawling peg, a more flexible RMB exchange rate regime, is inevitable. Based on improving the current formation mechanism of RMB exchange rate, Chinese government could widen the floating band around the central parity; in the long run, switching the peg from USD alone to a basket of currencies may be a better choice.

Analysis on RMB Exchange Rate Policy

Based on this global environment, this essay will first present basic concepts of RMB exchange rate policy and its evolutionhistory, then discuss some important challenges from the global perspective that the Chinese government meets in terms of the increasinglyundervalued exchange rate, thirdly argue that China cannot take a substantial appreciation, Finally discuss whether China should take a gradualappreciation by comparing its advantages and disadvantages.

Autonomy and Effectiveness of Chinese Monetary Policy under the De Facto Fixed Exchange Rate System

This paper uses monthly data to examine the autonomy and effectiveness of monetary policy in China under the de facto fixed exchange rate arrangement in place from 1998 to 2005. The results obtained from Granger causality tests in a vector autoregression framework indicate that： （i） China actually conducted independent monetary policy during the fixed exchange rate period; and （ii） market-oriented policy measures are impotent in influencing real output and prices. The framework of the investigation into the autonomy of monetary policy adapts to the Chinese economic condition that primary loan and deposit rates are set by the central bank. Based on the empirical results, the present paper provides alternative strategies to improve the effectiveness of monetary policy in China, including developing the financial system and solidifying microeconomic fundamentals instead of forcing the adaptation of a more flexible exchange rate regime.

European Sovereign Debt Crisis's Influence and Enlightenment on China

对中国的欧洲主权债务危机从形成到逐步影响中国的各个方面进行详尽分析和探讨,包括对汇率、对外贸易、金融政策等的影响,指出应以欧洲主权债务危机为戒,改进中国地方政府债务的监管体制。

Monetary Stability and Crisis Predictions Fallacies

In present days,our instable financial markets,characterized by heavier growing monetary responsibilities,are delivering and enlarging ever growing central banks’functions.The financial stability applied standards have been creating contradictory results in the recent Great Recessions since the year 1987 up to the central banks model,after the 2008 last financial crisis,with major central banks as the FED and the CEB(Diamond,2007,pp.189-200)conflicting main operative areas,monetary and financial goals with unexpected results.We have been living a very difficult and dramatic period,which suggests a lot of reconsiderations about what the monetary policy means and may pursue and in which area,with respect to the financial system restrictions,in particular,during the post-second World War,based initially on the pseudo gold dollar parity,things were relatively stable and major financial crises were happening in emerging peripheral markets only.Financial stability was ever relevant,but it was not something to which governments devoted institutional attention.Based on what happened during the recent crisis,it is now of capital responsibility connecting monetary and economic financial stability jointly.Central banks,on the contrary,seem not able to pursue both functions relying on classical market tools.Up to now,the only obligation,imposed to a central bank as a private agent,has been taking care of monetary stability,to contain inflation rates over upper limits,assumed in entering definitely in the legal tender monetary,regime almost everywhere over the planet.Originally,for specific monetary policy purposes alone,between central banks and possible financial entities,there were no guidelines or structural determined controls,only institutional and statutory single bank’s operational clauses.There were no legal constraints such as formal loan to-value,or loan to cash-flows,or formal capital level limits,based on actual constraints.Free repurchase agreements and sales or purchases of securities(the most relevant tools of monetary policy guidelines),generally based on private financial covenants,were the sole most recurrent tactical interferences in adjusting the economic free activity.The assuming statutory thresholds were casual in the incorporating state,central banks used to monitor the activities of agents through economic incentives,rather than mandating and monitoring specific legal prescriptions.The evolving inconsistency of both activities has become even more manifest;two conditions should be fulfilled simultaneously:To avoid dilemmas in which a central bank might be called to make the autonomous independent management choice between monetary price stability,pursuing at same time,generally incompatible,financial stability,two different policies should be rarely jointly assigned to same bodies,especially central banks.As regards the first issue,the IMF nevertheless,with Brunnermeier and Sannikov(Brunnermeier&Sannikov,2012),has argued that price stability and financial stability are interlinked Short-term debt financing played an important role in the run-up to the financial crisis,as increases in leverage helped boost growth but also made the economy more susceptible to a downturn.Since the recession,private agents have reduced their debt level while many governments have increased borrowing.This deleveraging process appears to be holding back the recovery,and the Japanese experience suggests that such deleveraging can continue over an extended period”,unless in the long run we are all broken at state level,as history seems now to prove.It is true indeed,as reminded by Lamfalussy(Lamfalussy et al.,2010,pp.7-9),and now widely proved by facts,that prices and the growth-employment objectives,run into each other because it is seldom the case that the pursuit of one is consistent with the pursuit of the second in global economies.

What Happened to Jacques Rueff and Robert Triffin?

A present monetary theory of the Great Depression has been explained as stemming from Milton Friedman,ignoring the previous Davanzati,a Florentine finding,in the 16th Century,an explanation solution to the increase of prices due to the arrival of Spanish silver from the New World.Designed to counter the Keynesian notion that the Depression resulted from instability theories,characterizing most modern capitalistic economies,Friedmans explanation identified lately the monetary trend as a disordered monetary policy,carried out by erroneous Federal Reserve Board interventions,possible after the Aldrich-Vreeland innovations,introducing Treasury money in the year 1908.More recent works about the Great Depression reconsider the attempts to restore the international gold standard,suppressed on the brink of World War I.We learnt that current views of the Depression,as analyzed in the 1920s by Ralph Hawtrey and Gustav Cassel,while recommending a gold standard reset,reflect that such standard risk deflations,unless the resulting increase in the international monetary demand linked to physical gold,could be satisfied.Although their early warnings of potential disaster became actual and their policy advice was consistently correct,their contributions were ignored and forgotten.The vanishing of their comments was firstly outlined not a long time ago,by Batchelder and Glasner What Ever Happened to Hawtrey and Cassel? (2013)This paper explores the possible reasons for the remarkable historical disregard of the Hawtrey-Cassel monetary explanation of the Great Depression,even by Nobel Prize winner Robert Mundell in his 2000 historical Nobel reconsideration of the monetary 20th century(Mundell,2000).The paper stresses the identical historical conditions surfacing after the Bretton Woods agreements.Robert Triffin and Jacques Rueff comment likely warnings as in the first Great Depression,under the monetary policy illusion and the Central Banks excessive disregard of the basics of the quantitative theory on the long run,mostly ignored.Robert Triffin started to address the problem in March and June of 1959,Italian Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review.The first of these articles(Part One:Diagnosis)explains in the simplest possible terms,the extraordinary success of the nineteenth century system of international gold based convertibility,and the calamitous collapse of the late 1920s attempts to bring it back to life.It may hold for us today an indication of the main efforts facing the similar attempt at reconstructing the past expressed some 64 years later,after the first of August 1914,by Triffin during the 1978 Christmas weekend.To deal with them in simple,commonsense terms would inevitably classify the author as an unrealistic whose views deserve no more than a raising of eyebrows.Jacques Rueff,with his The Monetary Sin of the West,a logical consequence of the Triffin previous notes of the 1960s,went straight to the consequences of the Camp David resolutions of President Nixon who just temporarily asked his Treasury Secretary,John Conally to suspend the gold convertibility.There were two changes in United States(U.S.)government policy toward the monetary role of gold in the last 100 years.The first was in 1933-1934;all holdings of gold were confiscated in March 1933.Then,the U.S.Treasury adopted a parity for the U.S.dollar of$35.00 an ounce at the end of January 1934.Gold production surged,the private demand for gold fell,and the U.S.experienced large increases in foreign demand for U.S.dollar securities.In those years there was a massive flow of gold to the U.S.The second historical change in U.S.gold policy followed the meeting at Camp David on August the 15th 1971,when the U.S.Treasury closed its gold window fearing a run on its gold holdings,declining towards$10 billion.Some U.S.officials sought to diminish the monetary role of gold.The anticipation of some U.S.officials attending Camp David was that the persistent U.S.payments problem would disappear,once foreign currencies had no parities in terms of the U.S.dollar.The prices of these foreign currencies would increase and the U.S.trade surplus would become larger.Instead,many foreign Central Banks became larger buyers of dollarssecurities,which led to a higher price of the U.S.dollar and a U.S.trade structural deficit.The U.S.international investment position morphed from the worlds largest creditor country,to the worlds present day largest debtor.

全球经济政策不确定性、人民币汇率与中国经济波动——基于非对称视角的理论与实证分析

随着全球经济一体化的加深,全球经济政策不确定性和人民币汇率对中国经济波动产生越来越大的影响。基于非对称影响的视角,构建一个融入全球经济政策不确定性、人民币汇率和经济波动的Mundell-Fleming模型,从理论上分析各要素的非对称影响机制。实证结果表明:短期内人民币升值对物价水平的抑制效应大于贬值对物价水平的促进效应,长期内人民币升值对经济增长的抑制效应大于贬值对经济增长的促进效应;此外,无论在短期还是长期,全球经济政策不确定性降低对物价水平和经济增长的促进作用都大于经济政策不确定性上升的抑制效应。以上结果均通过稳健性检验。因此,央行需要加强对汇率与全球经济政策不确定性对物价水平和经济增长的非对称效应的关注,以实现中国经济的平稳运行。

关注尾部风险:贸易政策不确定性、预期与人民币汇率变动

贸易是决定汇率的首要因素,而贸易政策变动带来的不确定性如何影响人民币汇率双向变动?本研究基于无抛补利率平价思想,引入贸易政策不确定性的尾部风险对汇率预期的影响,建立中美贸易政策不确定性与人民币汇率关系的理论模型,进而基于交叉分位数回归模型探究中美贸易政策不确定性对人民币在岸与离岸市场的短期影响.实证结果表明中国和美国贸易政策不确定性对人民币在岸与离岸汇率冲击具有非对称性和尾部特征,且中国贸易政策不确定性对人民币汇率的影响占主导地位.最后,贸易政策不确定性通过改变外汇市场投资者的预期进一步作用于人民币汇率变动.因此,央行要加强针对尾部风险的主动应对措施,投资者需关注贸易政策改变带来的不确定性而调整套期保值策略。

经济政策不确定性与人民币汇率的非对称波动——基于投资者预期视角

选取2011年1月至2022年3月的时间序列数据,探讨经济政策不确定性对人民币汇率波动的非对称影响及投资者预期的中介效应。研究发现,相对经济政策不确定性上升加剧了人民币汇率波动,且呈现出明显的非对称特征,即在宏观经济状况较坏时的波动更大,投资者预期在其中发挥了重要的中介作用。鉴于此,应针对不同宏观经济状况采取差异化调控措施,提振投资者信心,避免形成人民币不良变动预期,预防人民币汇率的过度波动。

中美经济政策不确定性对人民币汇率的影响研究

随着人民币汇改以及国际化的推进,本文探讨中美经济政策不确定性对人民币汇率的波动影响。本文选取2005年8月至2023年6月的中美EPU指数与人民币汇率数据,基于时变视角的VAR模型,实证分析人民币汇率与中美EPU的影响。结果表明:第一,金融风险、新冠疫情等突发事件时,美国EPU对人民币汇率的波动幅度骤升;第二,中国EPU对人民币汇率波动呈现短期显著、长期同步现象;第三,汇改后中美EPU对人民币汇率的影响强度更大。结合当前经济环境看,本文认为降低美国经济政策不确定性对外汇市场和经济稳定的冲击尤为重要。

Coordinating an Extended Warranty Supply Chain under Increasing,Constant and Decreasing Product Failure Rates

A product typically exhibits three different failure rates across its lifetime:increasing,decreasing,or constant.This paper studies how the characteristics of failure rate impact the supply chain coordination for an extended warranty program involving a manufacturer and a retailer.A two-stage Stackelberg game is utilized to model the interaction between these two players.Two extended warranty channel structures are compared depending on whether the manufacturer or the retailer offers the warranty service.The analysis shows that the failure rate trend during the warranty period has different effects on the coordination of the service supply chain.When a product has an increasing or constant failure rate,the optimal length of extended warranty offered by the retailer is longer than that of the manufacturer,while the optimal length is shorter for a product with a decreasing failure rate.If a product during the warranty coverage has an increasing or constant failure rate,a longer extended warranty period will motivate customers to buy the product without the warranty,whereas more customers will buy both the product and the warranty if the product experiences a decreasing failure rate.It is concluded that,if the manufacturer and the retailer incur the same warranty service cost,the total profit in the supply chain is higher when the manufacturer offers the extended warranty.From the game participants'perspective,the one which sells the extended warranty will obtain more profit.

央行政策对汇率稳定的非线性调控效果——来自中国、日本和英国的证据

如何有效调控汇率稳定是推动高质量发展和高水平对外开放的重要现实议题之一。本文构建了包含央行汇率稳定政策的内生理论模型,并基于时变参数结构向量自回归模型(TVP-SVAR),采用1985—2021年我国、日本和英国的季度数据集,检验了价格型货币政策、数量型货币政策和外汇干预三类央行政策对汇率的非线性影响效应和传导效率,得出如下结论:(1)我国货币政策对宏观经济的整体调控效果优于日本和英国,且数量型货币政策优于价格型货币政策;(2)与其他国家不同,我国价格型货币政策对本国汇率的平均调控效果优于数量型货币政策,体现出稳定的逆向调控作用;(3)外汇干预与货币政策协调,能够有效维护人民币汇率稳定,但其调控效果具有短期性和“靶向性”。基于此,本文进一步从优化货币政策调控机制、加强外汇干预的定向性和时机选择、制定长期战略规划等方面提出了政策建议,旨在为有效调控汇率,防范化解重大风险提供政策启示。

负利率政策的传导渠道和有效性研究

美国"次贷危机"之后全球经济深陷长期停滞状态,欧元区与日本相继实施负利率政策。负利率打破了政策利率零下限的教条,对现有理论提出了挑战。本文分析了负利率政策可能的传导渠道和影响负利率政策有效性的因素,并对现有的政策效果进行评估。本文发现负利率政策较容易对市场利率和汇率等金融市场变量产生影响;但就实体经济复苏而言,负利率政策成败的关键在于是否能有效增加贷款需求和供给。

中国货币政策与汇率政策冲突的成因及对策——基于国际协调的视角

探究开放经济条件下我国货币政策和汇率政策形成冲突的原因并寻求二者之间更好的协调机制是当前理论界的研究热点,也是我国货币当局迫切需要解决的一个重大现实问题。本文通过四个典型化事实证明,由于美元霸权的渗透和影响以及政策国际协调机制的不完善,导致我国在一系列政策国际协调中处于不利地位,并由此造成我国汇率政策和货币政策的经常性冲突,其中美元霸权的渗透和影响是关键性的。据此,本文提出了若干有针对性的政策建议。

论不同经济体制下利率与汇率的联动性

本文在回顾国内外关于利率与汇率关系理论的基础上,归纳了利率与汇率之间的联动关系的作用途径,并用格兰杰因果检验法对人民币利率与汇率之间的联动性进行了考察。在对人民币利率与汇率联动性较低的原因作出分析后,对现行人民币利率和汇率体制改革进行了思考。

中国经济内外均衡与利率、汇率政策协调

开放经济条件下 ,一国实现内外均衡要求利率与汇率政策的协调。加入WTO的中国也面临着追求宏观经济均衡的目标 ,在内部经济存在通缩、失业 ,外部经济存在顺差但增幅减缓的条件下内外均衡的实现要求采用扩张性的经济政策。我国财政政策施展空间有限、货币政策的效力不高 ,实现内外均衡要求利率政策与汇率政策的协调。我国利率是管制的 ,汇率是僵化的 ,利率、汇率变动与利率平价模型并不契合 ,因此短期来看要使利率下调、汇率稳定以实现内外均衡 ,长期则要求利率汇率的市场化。

国际汇率理论发展的世纪回顾与展望

汇率问题一直是世界经济中的热点问题 ,在经济全球化的趋势下 ,各国只有安排合理的汇率制度 ,制定恰当的汇率政策 ,才可能实现本国经济的内部均衡与外部均衡。而各国政府要做到这一点 ,则需要汇率理论的指导。本文对上一世纪具有重要影响的主要的汇率理论进行了回顾 。