Forecasting of China's natural gas production and its policy implications

With the vigorous promotion of energy conservation and implementation of clean energy strategies,China＇s natural gas industry has entered a rapid development phase,and natural gas is playing an increasingly important role in China＇s energy structure.This paper uses a Generalized Weng model to forecast Chinese regional natural gas production,where accuracy and reasonableness compared with other predictions are enhanced by taking remaining estimated recoverable resources as a criterion.The forecast shows that China＇s natural gas production will maintain a rapid growth with peak gas of 323 billion cubic meters a year coming in 2036;in 2020,natural gas production will surpass that of oil to become a more important source of energy.Natural gas will play an important role in optimizing China＇s energy consumption structure and will be a strategic replacement of oil.This will require that exploration and development of conventional natural gas is highly valued and its industrial development to be reasonably planned.As well,full use should be made of domestic and international markets.Initiative should also be taken in the exploration and development of unconventional and deepwater gas,which shall form a complement to the development of China＇s conventional natural gas industry.

Modeling and Global Conflict Analysis of Firewall Policy

The global view of firewall policy conflict is important for administrators to optimize the policy.It has been lack of appropriate firewall policy global conflict analysis,existing methods focus on local conflict detection.We research the global conflict detection algorithm in this paper.We presented a semantic model that captures more complete classifications of the policy using knowledge concept in rough set.Based on this model,we presented the global conflict formal model,and represent it with OBDD(Ordered Binary Decision Diagram).Then we developed GFPCDA(Global Firewall Policy Conflict Detection Algorithm) algorithm to detect global conflict.In experiment,we evaluated the usability of our semantic model by eliminating the false positives and false negatives caused by incomplete policy semantic model,of a classical algorithm.We compared this algorithm with GFPCDA algorithm.The results show that GFPCDA detects conflicts more precisely and independently,and has better performance.

Impact of openness, economic policy reform and regional shocks on trade and growth of Thailand： An econometric study

Thailand has currently enhanced and promoted intensive trade and investment liberalization and implemented long-term growth policy according with current regional economic integration, WTO obligations and globalization. Nevertheless, several recent internal and external factors e.g. the massive SARS and avian flu outbreaks, the Indian Ocean tsunami devastation, the Asia financial crisis and domestic policy reforms （ICSEAD, 2006） have also impeded this policy. While the issues are important for Thailand and developing countries in Asia, only limited research has been undertaken to investigate them. The paper conducts a substantive quantitative study to contribute to these trade and development policy issues. A new econometric modelling policy method, namely the generalized gravity theory （Tran Van Hoa, 2004） is used to develop a simple flexible simultaneous-equation econometric model of Thailand＇s openness model with its seven major trade partners （ASEAN-4, Australia, the USA, the EU, China, Japan and India）. Using data from the ICSEAD, the World Development Indicators and the Bank of Thailand databases, the paper reveals efficient and reliable empirical findings on trade-growth causality, trade determination including the impact of shocks and policy reform on trade and growth between Thailand and its major trade partners over the past two decades. The paper also provides evidence on the linkages between trade in goods, FDI and services and regional economic integration for more credible policy implications.

基于史密斯政策执行过程模型的国家医保药品目录准入谈判罕见病药品落地问题及路径研究

目的基于史密斯政策执行过程模型的国家医保药品目录准入谈判(以下简称“国谈”)罕见病药品落地的关键和难点,探索罕见病药品在进入国家基本医疗保险和工伤保险药品目录后政策实施过程中存在的问题并提出对策建议。方法通过文献复习和政策梳理、专家访谈、焦点小组访谈收集资料,结合史密斯政策执行过程模型的理论框架从多角度探索国谈罕见病药品政策执行情况的现状、问题以及解决方案。结果目前我国罕见病药品行业管理尚处于初级阶段;医疗服务提供方在意识、管理等方面仍存在不足;罕见病药品保障渠道有待优化,医疗保险支付机制尚不完善。结论建议进一步加强行业管理,提升罕见病用药保障;加强医疗服务提供方能力建设,取消罕见病用药考核限制;畅通罕见病用药保障渠道,完善医疗保险支付机制。

人工关节国家集中带量采购的政策效果分析

目的利用中选结果数据评估人工关节集中带量采购的政策效果,以完善后续高值医用耗材集中带量采购政策。方法利用韦唐政策评估模式中的目标模式,依据人工关节集中带量采购的政策目标,构建效果评估体系,以评估人工关节集中带量采购政策效果。结果根据韦唐政策评估模式中的目标模式评估,人工关节集中带量采购平均降幅66.60%,带量比例超90.00%,价差普遍控制在2倍左右,关联中选情况少,企业分量增幅与报价及需求量的相关性符合预期,91.67%企业直接或复活中选,88.32%的分量具有延续性,至少56.87%的跨类别分量较为合理,因此基本实现了政策目标,但也出现了少数组别中选价差较大、伴随服务报价价差较大以及对医疗机构高价偏好的行为缺乏应对措施等问题。结论人工关节集中带量采购基本实现了降低耗材价格、挤压灰色空间、稳定价差、保证企业参与积极性、提高临床选择性、稳定临床供给和使用、优质产品临床替代的政策目标。建议:优化价差控制机制,减少异常中选价的出现;细化伴随服务报价规则,优化价格形成机制;避免医疗机构选择高价产品的倾向对集采产生负面影响。

Simulation of Hail and Soil Type Effects on Crop Yield Losses in Kansas,USA

Computer simulation was used for predictive analysis of the effects of weather and soil type on crop yield in the U.S. crop insurance program. The Environmental Policy Integrated Climate （EPIC） model was modified to include hail weather events, which completed the modifications necessary to simulate the four most frequent causes of crop yield loss （hail, excessive wet, excessive cold, and excessive dry） associated with soil type in Kansas, USA. At the region level, per hectare yields were simulated for corn, wheat, soybean, and sorghum. We concluded that it was possible to predict crop yields through computer simulation with greater than 93% accuracy. The hail damage model test indicated EPIC could predict hail-soil-induced yield losses reasonably well （R^2 〉 0.6）. The investigation of soil type influence on dryland sorghum and wheat production indicated that Wymore silty clay loam soil and Kenorna silt loam produced the highest sorghum yields statistically; Kuma silt loam, Roxbury silt loam, Crete silty clay loam, and Woodson silt soils produced the second highest sorghum yields statistically; and Richfiled silt loam, Wells loam, and Canadian sandy loam produced the lowest sorghum yields. By contrast, wheat production showed less sensitivity to soil type variation. The less sensitive response of wheat yields to the soil type could be largely due to the unconsidered small-scale variability of soil features.

Experiences and Prospects of China＇s Free Economic Zones after over 20 Years

Chinese FEZs are used as the tool for opening-up policy and the structural reform as well as the growth pole for the regional economic development. It is true that no Free Economic Zones （FEZs） in the world like in China have made so strong impact on national economic development and structural reform. Due to the change of their existing condition since the middle of 1990s, Chinese FEZs have to face the new challenges and problems. This study discusses and prospects the transformation and further development of Chinese FEZs in the 21^st century as well as their significance for the transformation of FEZs in other countries based on the analysis of the indicators such as the role, policy, industrial sectors, administration, development model, spatial structure and location.

Development and case study of a science-based software platform to support policy making on air quality

This article describes the development and implementations of a novel software platform that supports real-time, science-based policy making on air quality through a user-friendly interface. The software, RSM-VAT, uses a response surface modeling（RSM） methodology and serves as a visualization and analysis tool（VAT） for three-dimensional air quality data obtained by atmospheric models. The software features a number of powerful and intuitive data visualization functions for illustrating the complex nonlinear relationship between emission reductions and air quality benefits. The case study of contiguous U.S.demonstrates that the enhanced RSM-VAT is capable of reproducing the air quality model results with Normalized Mean Bias 〈 2% and assisting in air quality policy making in near real time.

Response surface modeling-based source contribution analysis and VOC emission control policy assessment in a typical ozone-polluted urban Shunde,China

To develop a sound ozone（O_3） pollution control strategy,it is important to well understand and characterize the source contribution due to the complex chemical and physical formation processes of O_3.Using the ＂Shunde＂ city as a pilot summer case study,we apply an innovative response surface modeling（RSM） methodology based on the Community Multi-Scale Air Quality（CMAQ） modeling simulations to identify the O_3 regime and provide dynamic analysis of the precursor contributions to effectively assess the O_3 impacts of volatile organic compound（VOC） control strategy.Our results show that Shunde is a typical VOC-limited urban O_3 polluted city.The ＂Jiangmen＂ city,as the main upper wind area during July 2014,its VOCs and nitrogen oxides（NO_x） emissions make up the largest contribution（9.06%）.On the contrary,the contribution from local（Shunde） emission is lowest（6.35%） among the seven neighbor regions.The local VOCs industrial source emission has the largest contribution comparing to other precursor emission sectors in Shunde.The results of dynamic source contribution analysis further show that the local NO_x control could slightly increase the ground O_3 under low（10.00%） and medium（40.00%）reduction ratios,while it could start to turn positive to decrease ground O_3 under the high NO_x abatement ratio（75.00%）.The real-time assessment of O_3 impacts from VOCs control strategies in Pearl River Delta（PRD） shows that the joint regional VOCs emission control policy will effectively reduce the ground O_3 concentration in Shunde.

Dynamic evaluation of digital and green development policies based on text mining of the PMC framework

Aiming to identify policy topics and their evolutionary logic that enhance the digital and green development(dual development)of traditional manufacturing enterprises,address weaknesses in current policies,and provide resources for refining dual development policies,a total of 15954 dual development-related policies issued by national and various departmental authorities in China from January 2000 to August 2023 were analyzed.Based on topic modeling techniques and the policy modeling consistency(PMC)framework,the evolution of policy topics was visualized,and a dynamic assessment of the policies was conducted.The results show that the digital and green development policy framework is progressively refined,and the governance philosophy shifts from a“regulatory government”paradigm to a“service-oriented government”.The support pattern evolves from“dispersed matching”to“integrated symbiosis”.However,there are still significant deficiencies in departmental cooperation,balanced measures,coordinated links,and multi-stakeholder participation.Future policy improvements should,therefore,focus on guiding multi-stakeholder participation,enhancing public demand orientation,and addressing the entire value chain.These steps aim to create an open and shared digital industry ecosystem to promote the coordinated dual development of traditional manufacturing enterprises.

Blue Box Policy Reform in the Doha Round Negotiations:Effects and China's Position

This paper uses an agricultural trade policy simulation model to quantitatively evaluate the effects of Blue Box policy reform on agricultural production and trade, and further provides specific proposals regarding China ＇ s reform position. The results indicate that, if the reform could achieve a reduction in distorting supports in more developed countries, China＇ s total agricultural production would increase, accompanied by a decrease in agricultural imports and a slight increase in exports. In terms of social welfare, producers would gain significantly, consumers would lose and government would not suffer greatly, which is in accordance with current agricultural policies in China. As a core member of G20, China should approve a subsidy level as low as possible required by Blue Box to achieve ＂substantial reductions in trade-distorting domestic supports＂.

Large-scale frequent testing and tracing to supplement control of Covid-19 and vaccination rollout constrained by supply

Non-pharmaceutical interventions(NPI)were implemented all around the world in the fight against COVID-19:Social distancing,shelter-in-place,mask wearing,etc.to mitigate transmission,together with testing and contact-tracing to identify,isolate and treat the infected.The majority of countries have relied on the former measures,followed by a ramping up of their testing and tracing capabilities.We present here the cases of South Korea,Italy,Canada and the United States,as a look back to lessons that can be drawn for controlling the pandemic,specifically through the means of testing and tracing.By fitting a disease transmission model to daily case report data in each of the four countries,we first show that their combination of social-distancing and testing/tracing have had a significant impact on the evolution of their first wave of pandemic curves.We then consider the hypothetical scenario where the only NPI measures implemented past the first pandemic wave consisted of isolating individuals due to repeated,country-scale testing and contact tracing,as a mean of lifting social distancing measures without a resurgence of COVID-19.We give estimates on the average isolation rates needed to occur in each country.We find that testing and tracing each individual of a country,on average,every 4.5 days(South Korea),5.7 days(Canada),6 days(Italy)and 3.5 days(US),would have been sufficient to mitigate their second pandemic waves.We also considered the situation in Canada to see how a frequent large-scale asymptomatic testing and contact tracing could have been used in combination with vaccination rollout to reduce the infection in the population.This could offer an alternative approach towards preventing and controlling an outbreak when vaccine supply is limited,while testing capacity has been increasingly enhanced.

Regional inequality, spatial spillover effects, and the factors influencing city-level energy-related carbon emissions in China

Data show that carbon emissions are increasing due to human energy consumption associated with economic development. As a result, a great deal of attention has been focused on efforts to reduce this growth in carbon emissions as well as to formulate policies to address and mitigate climate change. Although the majority of previous studies have explored the driving forces underlying Chinese carbon emissions, few have been carried out at the city-level because of the limited availability of relevant energy consumption statistics. Here, we utilize spatial autocorrelation, Markov-chain transitional matrices, a dynamic panel model, and system generalized distance estimation(Sys-GMM) to empirically evaluate the key determinants of carbon emissions at the city-level based on Chinese remote sensing data collected between 1992 and 2013. We also use these data to discuss observed spatial spillover effects taking into account spatiotemporal lag and a range of different geographical and economic weighting matrices. The results of this study suggest that regional discrepancies in city-level carbon emissions have decreased over time, which are consistent with a marked spatial spillover effect, and a ‘club' agglomeration of high-emissions. The evolution of these patterns also shows obvious path dependence, while the results of panel data analysis reveal the presence of a significant U-shaped relationship between carbon emissions and per capita GDP. Data also show that per capita carbon emissions have increased in concert with economic growth in most cities, and that a high-proportion of secondary industry and extensive investment growth have also exerted significant positive effects on city-level carbon emissions across China. In contrast, rapid population agglomeration, improvements in technology, increasing trade openness, and the accessibility and density of roads have all played a role in inhibiting carbon emissions. Thus, in order to reduce emissions, the Chinese government should legislate to inhibit the effects of factors that promote the release of carbon while at the same time acting to encourage those that mitigate this process. On the basis of the analysis presented in this study, we argue that optimizing industrial structures, streamlining extensive investment, increasing the level of technology, and improving road accessibility are all effective approaches to increase energy savings and reduce carbon emissions across China.