Aristotle related both dependent variables:democratization and autocratization in his broader explanation of regime change.For him two factors were crucial,the number of rulers(one,a few,the masses)and their values an...Aristotle related both dependent variables:democratization and autocratization in his broader explanation of regime change.For him two factors were crucial,the number of rulers(one,a few,the masses)and their values and behavior in terms of normal times and in crises periods.Here we try to be as parsimonious as possible emphasizing the size of the selectorate,as Aristotle knew already.The selectorate comprises the people who have a say in selecting political leaders.In this respect selectorate theory(Bueno de Mesquita et al.)is purely formal and helps to explain both,the origins of democracy and autocracy as well as their dismissal.The size of the selectorate is the crucial intervening variable in linking more specific causes and circumstances for bringing about the respective states on the dependent variables.Other theoretical glimpses will be taken at crises of democracies and autocracies.The size of the electorate can be limited by(brute)force or even through abstaining from the right to vote or using it to abolish democracy for autocracy(Przeworski,Zimmermann,and Saalfeld).Here we emphasize four major blocs of variables:(1)economic success(Lipset,Huntington),(2)the relative size of the consenters,dissenters,and assenters(Easton,Wright,Linz)bolstering even badly performing democratic and autocratic regimes,(3)the exit options and alternatives created for and by political and economic elites,possibly tied to potential mass mobilization and protest action,and(4)democratic peace theory as to external challenges to regime change.A causal model will be developed around those factors hopefully bringing about a consistent understanding of the basic processes of democratization and autocratization.展开更多
The electronic and bibliographic sources, as well as some interviews and focus groups conducted in Ciudad Juarez, Chihuahua, all present interpretations by different actors on the so-called democratic transition in Me...The electronic and bibliographic sources, as well as some interviews and focus groups conducted in Ciudad Juarez, Chihuahua, all present interpretations by different actors on the so-called democratic transition in Mexico. The model, proposed Carothers （2002） to explain the transition from a dictatorship to democracy, as stage universally. This article shows which of the five assumptions of the model are present in the experience of the Mexican transition and those that were not consider applicable. He also argues that the model shows features of a teleological perspective, by omitting the particularities of each country, eliminating any reference to diversity and difference, becoming an ideological approach linked to the process of economic globalization. It criticizes the absence of discussion of social and economic objectives that should be priority in a conception of substantive democracy, rather than limiting the horizon of the transition to a liberal and normative conception, that assumes two basic formulas： （1） Democracy is equal to elections; and （2） a citizen is a vote. Contrasting documents on electoral disenchantment in Ciudad Juarez and the actions that various political actors have done, we can illustrate what can be termed substantive citizenship.展开更多
This survey aims at briefly summarising key findings of the recent literature dealing with politics and banking.The interplay between banks and politics has received increasing interest in recent years following Dinc(...This survey aims at briefly summarising key findings of the recent literature dealing with politics and banking.The interplay between banks and politics has received increasing interest in recent years following Dinc(2005)on the influence of elections on bank lending.It focusses on two questions:the influence of elections on bank behaviour,and the interconnections between democracy and banking.Two key findings emerge from the litera-ture.First,elections exert an influence on the banking industry.They affect bank lending and bank failures,with electoral cycles leading to economic costs.Second,democracy has a beneficial impact on the credit conditions of firms.This work provides a roadmap for future research to investigate the political interfer-ence in private banks’behaviour and in developed countries.展开更多
The Belt and Road Initiative can play a crucial role in the development of theMiddle EastWhen it erupted five years ago,the Arab Spring was expected to bring about massive changes to the political,social and economic ...The Belt and Road Initiative can play a crucial role in the development of theMiddle EastWhen it erupted five years ago,the Arab Spring was expected to bring about massive changes to the political,social and economic systems in the Arab world.However,after series of violent protests,years of civil conflicts and regime changes,展开更多
文摘Aristotle related both dependent variables:democratization and autocratization in his broader explanation of regime change.For him two factors were crucial,the number of rulers(one,a few,the masses)and their values and behavior in terms of normal times and in crises periods.Here we try to be as parsimonious as possible emphasizing the size of the selectorate,as Aristotle knew already.The selectorate comprises the people who have a say in selecting political leaders.In this respect selectorate theory(Bueno de Mesquita et al.)is purely formal and helps to explain both,the origins of democracy and autocracy as well as their dismissal.The size of the selectorate is the crucial intervening variable in linking more specific causes and circumstances for bringing about the respective states on the dependent variables.Other theoretical glimpses will be taken at crises of democracies and autocracies.The size of the electorate can be limited by(brute)force or even through abstaining from the right to vote or using it to abolish democracy for autocracy(Przeworski,Zimmermann,and Saalfeld).Here we emphasize four major blocs of variables:(1)economic success(Lipset,Huntington),(2)the relative size of the consenters,dissenters,and assenters(Easton,Wright,Linz)bolstering even badly performing democratic and autocratic regimes,(3)the exit options and alternatives created for and by political and economic elites,possibly tied to potential mass mobilization and protest action,and(4)democratic peace theory as to external challenges to regime change.A causal model will be developed around those factors hopefully bringing about a consistent understanding of the basic processes of democratization and autocratization.
文摘The electronic and bibliographic sources, as well as some interviews and focus groups conducted in Ciudad Juarez, Chihuahua, all present interpretations by different actors on the so-called democratic transition in Mexico. The model, proposed Carothers （2002） to explain the transition from a dictatorship to democracy, as stage universally. This article shows which of the five assumptions of the model are present in the experience of the Mexican transition and those that were not consider applicable. He also argues that the model shows features of a teleological perspective, by omitting the particularities of each country, eliminating any reference to diversity and difference, becoming an ideological approach linked to the process of economic globalization. It criticizes the absence of discussion of social and economic objectives that should be priority in a conception of substantive democracy, rather than limiting the horizon of the transition to a liberal and normative conception, that assumes two basic formulas： （1） Democracy is equal to elections; and （2） a citizen is a vote. Contrasting documents on electoral disenchantment in Ciudad Juarez and the actions that various political actors have done, we can illustrate what can be termed substantive citizenship.
文摘This survey aims at briefly summarising key findings of the recent literature dealing with politics and banking.The interplay between banks and politics has received increasing interest in recent years following Dinc(2005)on the influence of elections on bank lending.It focusses on two questions:the influence of elections on bank behaviour,and the interconnections between democracy and banking.Two key findings emerge from the litera-ture.First,elections exert an influence on the banking industry.They affect bank lending and bank failures,with electoral cycles leading to economic costs.Second,democracy has a beneficial impact on the credit conditions of firms.This work provides a roadmap for future research to investigate the political interfer-ence in private banks’behaviour and in developed countries.
文摘The Belt and Road Initiative can play a crucial role in the development of theMiddle EastWhen it erupted five years ago,the Arab Spring was expected to bring about massive changes to the political,social and economic systems in the Arab world.However,after series of violent protests,years of civil conflicts and regime changes,
