One of the roles of nuctear regulators is to review population projections calculated by applicants for populations lying in the vicinity of nuclear power plants. This paper examines methods of calculating rates of gr...One of the roles of nuctear regulators is to review population projections calculated by applicants for populations lying in the vicinity of nuclear power plants. This paper examines methods of calculating rates of growth and thus calculating future population growth. This paper is concerned about regulators making sure that nuclear power plants are not located near densely populated centers and that population centers located near nuclear power plants do not become densely populated. In the case of El Dabaa city in the north coast of Egypt, south west of the nominated plant site, three rates of growth 1.5%, 2.5% and 3% were identified. The first is the current population growth rate of the city, the second is the average national growth rate and the third is the expected growth rate of the city when the nuclear power plant gets constructed and operated. In all three cases, this city is a population center and rules of distance from the nuclear power plant shall apply. Thus the further natural growth of this city should be controlled and directed away from the downwind of the plant.展开更多
China as the world＇ s most populous country, the number of demographic change is an essential element of social development plan under consideration. This article combined with the background, based on the birth rate...China as the world＇ s most populous country, the number of demographic change is an essential element of social development plan under consideration. This article combined with the background, based on the birth rate, mortality indicators as well as the corresponding changes in the age structure, demographic trends predict the future based on the current form of the economy analysis the population of 60 years since the founding of New China .China＇ s population control based on the complexity of the future still need to take tight family planning policy, change the mechanism of population control, optimize population structure, improve population quality.展开更多
The universal two-child policy,implemented in October,2015,is considered to be the most significant adjustment in the history of China's family planning program.Using data from the 2014 national population samplin...The universal two-child policy,implemented in October,2015,is considered to be the most significant adjustment in the history of China's family planning program.Using data from the 2014 national population sampling survey,this paper employs a population group-component calculation and projection method to compute the number of target population in 2016 and then to estimate the number of extra births that are likely to result from implementation of the universal two-child policy.The results show that the total number of extra births is estimated to be approximately 17.2 million in the years 2017-2021,with the number of extra births per year ranging from approximately 1.6 to 4.7 million.This will lead to a dramatic shift in China's TFR from an estimated 1.6 in 2016 to one approaching the replacement level,and then dropping to a projected 1.7.With the universal two-child policy in place,China's total population will grow to about 1.45 billion around 2028 and then gradually begin shrioking.The labor force will become larger under the universal two-child policy than it would if the stricter birth control policy were maintained,with an estimated 50 million additional people aged 15-59 in 2050.With implementation of China's new fertility policy,an estimated 34%of the population will be over 60 years of age in 2050,almost three percentage points lower than the level if the former fertility policy were continued.展开更多
文摘One of the roles of nuctear regulators is to review population projections calculated by applicants for populations lying in the vicinity of nuclear power plants. This paper examines methods of calculating rates of growth and thus calculating future population growth. This paper is concerned about regulators making sure that nuclear power plants are not located near densely populated centers and that population centers located near nuclear power plants do not become densely populated. In the case of El Dabaa city in the north coast of Egypt, south west of the nominated plant site, three rates of growth 1.5%, 2.5% and 3% were identified. The first is the current population growth rate of the city, the second is the average national growth rate and the third is the expected growth rate of the city when the nuclear power plant gets constructed and operated. In all three cases, this city is a population center and rules of distance from the nuclear power plant shall apply. Thus the further natural growth of this city should be controlled and directed away from the downwind of the plant.
文摘China as the world＇ s most populous country, the number of demographic change is an essential element of social development plan under consideration. This article combined with the background, based on the birth rate, mortality indicators as well as the corresponding changes in the age structure, demographic trends predict the future based on the current form of the economy analysis the population of 60 years since the founding of New China .China＇ s population control based on the complexity of the future still need to take tight family planning policy, change the mechanism of population control, optimize population structure, improve population quality.
基金funded by National Natural Science Foundation of China(7WXJ731).
文摘The universal two-child policy,implemented in October,2015,is considered to be the most significant adjustment in the history of China's family planning program.Using data from the 2014 national population sampling survey,this paper employs a population group-component calculation and projection method to compute the number of target population in 2016 and then to estimate the number of extra births that are likely to result from implementation of the universal two-child policy.The results show that the total number of extra births is estimated to be approximately 17.2 million in the years 2017-2021,with the number of extra births per year ranging from approximately 1.6 to 4.7 million.This will lead to a dramatic shift in China's TFR from an estimated 1.6 in 2016 to one approaching the replacement level,and then dropping to a projected 1.7.With the universal two-child policy in place,China's total population will grow to about 1.45 billion around 2028 and then gradually begin shrioking.The labor force will become larger under the universal two-child policy than it would if the stricter birth control policy were maintained,with an estimated 50 million additional people aged 15-59 in 2050.With implementation of China's new fertility policy,an estimated 34%of the population will be over 60 years of age in 2050,almost three percentage points lower than the level if the former fertility policy were continued.
