Research on the Misunderstanding and Trend of Chinese Population Economy Development under the Economic Transformation Background

In this paper, we conduct research on misunderstanding and trend of Chinese population economy development under the economic transformation background. New normal has become a new annotation, at present, China＇ s economic development can be expected that with the continuous impact of the global financial crisis, the economic development momentum is not really appeared, downward pressure on economic development in a short period of time it difficult to get the effective relief. Know the new normal, therefore, to adapt to the new normal, leading the new normal will be the future a period of an important link to promote the development of our country＇ s economy. Our research combines the general analysis of the economic transformation to form the better pattern for Chinese population economy development which is innovative.

Status of Impoverished Population and Contradiction of Economic Development in Qinling-Bashan Mountainous Area——A Case Study of Hanzhong City,Shaanxi Province

The status of impoverished population and economic development in Qinling-Bashan Mountainous area,Shaanxi is introduced based on the brief account of its general situation.Firstly,there are a large proportion of rural people and great outflow of population;a considerable proportion of the weak,the disabled,the sick and the dementia and low population quality;weak capacity of the economy to generate profit on its own and declining trend of financial self-sufficiency rate.taking into account that Qinling-Bashan Mountainous area is the poorest area with the largest impoverished population and the most complex structure of poverty,the impact of the status of the poor population in Qinling-Bashan Mountainous area on its economy is discussed:the first one is backward ecological concept and serious damage to ecological environment;outflow of excellent talents and a serious shortage of labor;the industrial structure is irrational and the resources advantage can not be transformed into economic advantage.Some corresponding measures and suggestions are proposed:the first one to build new small town so as to lessen the loss of population;the second one is to provide preferential policies so as to attract and retain qualified person;the third one to develop education and establish the concept of ecological civilization;the fourth one is to unblock the channels of information transmission and restructure the industry.

On Population Mobility in Market Economy

Regular and extensive social population mobility in natural economy is neither necessary nor possible while in a planned economic system, social population distribution is necessary but social population mobility is unlikely. Modern market economy as a highly mobile economy has a free-mobile population characteristic of market economy, which is fundamental to optimize human resource distribution. The rule for the modern market-based population movement is as follows: If the mobile population is the rational behavior choosers, under the permissive developmental environment as arranged by the social system, they tend to move from low profit-making fields to high income fields when there exists comparable difference of income in different regions and different industries, and various potential and practical profit-making chances. The degree of difference in comparable income is positively co-relative to the velocity and flux of mobile population.

Coordinated Development of Population, Economy and Environment System and Diagnosis of Its Obstacle Factors in Nanjing

Promoting the coordinated development of regional population,economy and environment is beneficial to the realization of sustainable development.Based on the construction of evaluation index system of coordinated development of systems,the entropy weight-TOPSIS method and coupling coordination model,the coordinated development degree of population,economy and environment system in Nanjing was measured,and the temporal variation characteristics of each subsystem and their coordinated development degree form 1997 to 2016 were analyzed.The results showed that the development of population,economy system and environment system in Nanjing was generally in a continuous upward trend.Among them,the economy system developed fastest.The coordinated development degree of population,economy system and environment system in Nanjing was constantly increasing but still at a low level;the degree was only in the primary coordination phase,and its type was environment lagging.The economy subsystem and environment subsystem were important factors restricting the development of population,economy and environment in Nanjing,and the main obstacle factor was the production of industrial solid waste.The results above can provide a scientific basis for promoting the coordinated development of population,economy and environment system in Nanjing and achieving regional sustainable development.

The Imbalanced Pattern of Population and Economy and Its Influencing Factors in the Wumeng Mountain Area

Based on the population and economic data of the Wumeng Mountain Area from 2000 to 2020,this study explored the imbalanced spatiotemporal patterns of population and economy in the area using methods such as the geographic concentration,gravity model,imbalance index,and inconsistency index.The study also analyzed the influencing factors using geodetectors and spatiotemporal geographically weighted regression models.The results show four key aspects of this phenomenon.(1)The spatial distributions of the population and economic geographic concentrations deviate from their ideal distributions.The population distribution shows a spatial pattern of being higher in the northeast and lower in the southwest,while the economic distribution shows a spatial pattern of being higher in the south and lower in the north.(2)The population and economic gravity centers have shifted toward the northeast and south relative to the geometric center of the mountain area,respectively,and the economic center has shifted more than the population center.(3)The degree of imbalance between the population and economic distributions is decreasing,but regional development disparities still exist.The region with inconsistent spatial distributions between population and economy remains stable,showing a"north high,south low"pattern,with an increase in the number of counties dominated by the economy and reductions in the numbers of counties in other categories.(4)Economic power,social consumption level,industrial structure,urban development level,government regulation capacity,and health care infrastructure are the main factors affecting the inconsistent distributions of population and economy in Wumeng Mountain Area,and the effects of these factors are reflected in the promotion of economic development.

Topographical relief characteristics and its impact on population and economy:A case study of the mountainous area in western Henan,China

Topographical relief is a key factor that limits population distribution and economic development in mountainous areas. The limitation is especially apparent in the mountain-plain transition zone. Taking the transition zone between the Qinling Mountains and the North China Plain(i.e. the mountainous area in western Henan Province) as an example and based on the 200-m resolution DEM data, we used the mean change-point analysis to determine the optimal statistical unit for topographical relief, and thereafter extracted the relief degree. Taking the 1:100,000 land use data, township population and county-level industrial data, population and economic spatial models were constructed, and 200-m resolution grid population and economic density maps were generated. Afterwards, statistical analysis was carried out to quantitatively reveal the impact of topographical relief on population and economy. In addition, the impacts of other topographical factors were discussed. The results showed the following.(1) The relief degree in western Henan is generally low, where 58.6% of the regional topography does not exceed half the height of a reference mountain(relative elevation ≤250 m). Spatially, the relief degree is high in the west while low in the east, and high in the middle while low in the north and south. There is a positive correlation between relief degree and elevation, and a much stronger correlation between relief degree and slope.(2) The linear fitting degree between the population and economic validation data and the corresponding simulation data are 0.943 and 0.909, respectively, indicating that the spatialized results can reflect the actual population and economic distribution.(3) The impact of topographical relief on population and economy was stronger than that of other topographical factors. The relief degree showed a good logarithmic fit relationship with population density(0.911) and economic density(0.874). Specifically, 88.65% of the population lives in areas where the topographical relief is ≤0.5 and 88.03% of the gross regional product was from areas where the relief is ≤0.3. Compared with the population distribution, the economic development showed an obvious agglomeration trend towards low relief areas.

Competitive Equilibria and Benefit Distributions of Population Production Economies with External Increasing Returns

Inspired by the work of population games,we establish the model of population production economies with external increasing returns and introduce the notion of competitive equilibria.We first prove the existence of competitive equilibria under some regular assumptions.Furthermore,we assume that there exists the cooperative behavior of different populations.By proving the existence of transferable utility(TU)core,we analyze the benefit distributions of population production economies with external increasing returns.

参与数字经济对老年人数字信任的影响机制——中国式现代化背景下的实证研究

中国社会的巨变改变了老年人信任形成的时空环境,因此,重塑信任不能忽视全新时空秩序下新型经济形态带来的影响。基于2021—2022年开展的实地调查数据,在中国式现代化背景下,运用倾向值匹配方法评估了数字经济参与对老年人数字信任的因果效应,进而揭示了老年人数字信任建构的作用路径与内在机制。研究发现:(1)相较于非因果模型的乐观估计,参与数字经济对老年人数字信任产生的实质积极效用呈现出一定程度的“缩水”;(2)中介模型显示出老年人数字信任建构双通道的“此消彼长”,即“人与物”通道在数字经济参与和数字信任关系间发挥消极中介效应,而“人与人”通道在数字经济参与和数字信任关系间发挥积极效应;(3)进一步比较两个中介效应强弱,可以发现,“人与人”通道的积极效应程度显著大于“人与物”通道;(4)异质性分析显示,数字经济参与对老年人数字信任的影响效应在不同性别、户籍与年龄的老年人之间存在显著性差异。因此,重构信任需要理解中国式现代化对破解信任困境的理论关照,并重视“人+物”双通道指向的信任构建可为路径,构建有助于老年人的数字经济融入政策体系。

再就业对低龄老年人生活满意度的影响——基于银发消费的中介效应检验

随着人口老龄化程度不断加深,深度开发老年人力资源是贯彻落实积极应对人口老龄化国家战略以及推动社会适老化转型的重要举措,探究老年人力资源开发对低龄老年人生活满意度的影响具有十分重要的理论和现实意义。利用2011年、2013年、2015年、2018年四期中国健康与养老追踪调查数据(CHARLS),从低龄老年人的劳动收入水平出发,探讨再就业对低龄老年人生活满意度的影响。主要结果发现:再就业可以显著改善低龄老年人的生活满意度,其中对男性低龄老年人生活满意度的改善作用更显著;对农村低龄老年人的生活满意度影响更直接;对不同隔代照料情况下的低龄老年人生活满意度的影响不一。此外,家庭支持、社会支持以及融入社会有益于提高低龄老年人生活满意度。影响机制检验表明,再就业能够通过增加低龄老年人的银发消费能力提高其生活质量和其生活满意度。总体来看,再就业是影响低龄老年人生活满意度的重要因素,人口政策的制定要聚焦核心群体,继续推进经济社会适老化转型,从“增收入”“缩差距”“减负担”“强赋能”四个方面,提升低龄老年人再就业意愿、缩小城乡老年人资源禀赋差距、减轻老年人隔代照料负担、激发银发消费潜力,最终提升老年人生活满意度。

涪江流域地貌特征及其与人口、经济的相关性研究

探讨涪江流域地貌特征对人口分布、经济发展的约束作用,可为区域人口合理布局提供科学依据,为统筹人口、社会经济、地理环境协调发展提供决策支持。基于ArcGIS空间分析模块,对发源于青藏高原东缘与四川盆地过渡地带的涪江流域各县域单元的地貌特征及其与人口、经济格局之间的关系进行分析。结果表明:断裂活动使研究区地形起伏度随海拔增加呈增大趋势;研究区人口布局、经济布局呈现向海拔与地形起伏度低值区集聚的态势。地貌状况对盆地-山地过渡区域人口分布和经济发展的影响作用尤为明显,在涪江流域表现为县域平均海拔、地形起伏度与所在县区人口、经济指标的显著负相关性。

大力发展银发经济,助力中国式现代化--“实现银发经济高质量发展”跨学科专家笔谈

2024年1月《国务院办公厅关于发展银发经济增进老年人福祉的意见》印发,这是国家层面首次出台以“银发经济”为主题的专项政策,成为新时代推动银发经济发展的纲领性文件。2024年7月党的二十届三中全会强调“发展银发经济,创造适合老年人的多样化、个性化就业岗位”,为实现银发经济高质量发展指明了基础性方向。在全面建设社会主义现代化国家的新征程中,人口少子化、老龄化和区域人口增减分化等人口发展新形势相交织,发展方式转变、经济结构优化和增长动力转换等经济发展新要求相叠加,推动银发经济高质量发展成为统筹人口新形势和经济新要求的时代课题,这决定了银发经济不仅涉及人口发展领域,更涉及经济发展领域,需要从跨学科视角进行全面解读。有鉴于此,《人口与经济》特别约请我国银发经济学术、政策和实践研究领域的专家学者,就“实现银发经济高质量发展”议题展开跨学科研讨,准确把握大力发展银发经济的环境基础和资源禀赋,科学认识银发经济的概念、特点和规模,旨在以银发经济为牵引不断深化经济领域的适老化改革,及时出台助推银发经济高质量发展的产业政策,全方位更新和扩展对银发经济的认知,探寻老龄社会下实现经济可持续发展的长期性和全局性解决方案。

福建省县域人口-经济时空分异及影响因素研究

根据人口、经济及其相关指标数据,运用人口地理集中度、经济地理集中度和人口-经济匹配指数,对福建省人口与经济之间耦合关系和空间差异进行研究,并对其影响因素进行分析。结果表明:人口地理集中度在阈值为1时呈现东—西两级分异;经济地理集中度在阈值为1时呈现闽东和闽东南集聚态势,将人口-经济匹配指数按3类划分,2010—2021年期间同类型县域逐渐呈现集聚效应,福建省县域人口-经济匹配度整体有趋好态势,但匹配程度仍有待提高,人口-经济稳定型逐渐形成一个“U”字形,与福建省“十四五”规划较为吻合,说明该划分有利于宏观决策。在今后的发展中,福建省仍要注重区域间人口与经济发展水平相协调。

渐进式延迟退休:致因、机遇与进路

我国面临人口老龄化加速和人口负增长加剧相互交汇的老龄社会新常态,恰逢中国式现代化强国建设周期,构成实施渐进式退休改革的时代背景。坚持核心问题导向,当前亟须紧紧把握“一大致因”“二重机遇”和“三个关系”,这是理解并支撑延迟退休改革落地的关键。老龄社会是延迟退休的核心致因,人口结构变化规律表明我国已处于实施延迟退休改革的机会窗口后期,参考先行国家经验,及时实施延迟退休改革具有客观必然性和现实紧迫性。释放长寿红利和增进老年人福祉赋予延迟退休二重机遇,人力资源和人力资本潜力巨大,个人价值和社会价值同向提升,助力在问题应对中转危为机,寻找问题的化解之道,发挥制度优势。面向未来,建构实施延迟退休改革的进路应主要聚焦于延迟退休与劳动力市场、隔代照料、养老保险构成的三个关系,亟需围绕这三个关系完善延迟退休的就业公共服务体系和配套支撑措施,健全人口服务体系,深化养老保险制度改革,推动就业体系、产业结构全面改革,挖掘经济增长新动能,为世界各国应对人口老龄化提供一个富有中国特色、充满中国智慧的行动方案和坐标参考。

积极应对人口老龄化背景下社会保障的战略思考

人口老龄化是人类社会发展的必然阶段,也是人类社会发展进步的结果和标志。本文立足人口老龄化变动趋势,以我国社会保障多层次、可持续、高质量发展为目标导向,从顶层设计、基金可持续、经办管理三个维度剖析当前面临的挑战。重点探讨与老年人群体直接相关的延迟退休、长期护理保险、银发经济等关键议题,寻找现实症结和痛点。深入贯彻积极应对人口老龄化国家战略,明确社会保障的现实、发展与实践逻辑,以积极的态度迎接人口老龄化,通过践行“老有所为-以为促养”理念、回应老有所养期盼、发展银发经济等举措,充分利用我国优势,以缓解当前社会保障体系与老龄社会需求不匹配之间的矛盾为重点,推动我国社会保障制度不断完善。

人口变动新趋势背景下区域经济高质量发展研究

区域经济高质量发展是实现中国式现代化目标的重要支撑与本质要求,人口作为经济社会发展的基础性要素,则是区域经济高质量发展的重要驱动力。人口的规模、素质、分布与结构的变化深刻影响区域经济格局的演进。当前,我国正处于人口发展的根本性转折期,长时期内,人口负增长趋势难以逆转,少子老龄化社会形态不断深化,人口健康素质与文化素质不断提升,人口持续向东部沿海地区流动,向城市与城市群地区集聚现象愈发突出,这些人口变动新趋势为我国区域经济的高质量发展带来了新的挑战与机遇。从人口视角深入剖析我国区域经济高质量发展在创新、绿色、协调等层面存在的问题,可以发现,必须不断提升人口素质,优化城市群功能与人口空间布局,积极应对人口老龄化挑战,构建生育友好型社会,促进人才有序流动,以弥补我国人口现代化短板,为区域经济高质量发展提供坚实的人口支撑,推动实现中国式现代化的奋斗目标。

人口老龄化的经济增长效应及其区域差异

人口老龄化是世界各国家普遍面临的一个重大现实问题。基于中国31个省(自治区、直辖市)2000—2020年的面板数据(未包括中国香港、澳门特别行政区、中国台湾省的面板数据),综合运用莫兰指数、空间计量模型、Bartik工具变量和时空地理加权回归等方法实证研究了2000—2020年中国人口老龄化的经济增长效应。结果表明:①人口老龄化的直接经济增长效应和总经济增长效应为正,间接经济增长效应为负;②机制分析发现物质资本存量和劳动力供给会分别正向、逆向调节人口老龄化的直接和间接经济增长效应;科技发展水平会正向调节人口老龄化的间接经济增长效应,但逆向调节直接经济增长效应;社会保障事业发展是提升人口老龄化经济增长效应的重要作用路径。③人口老龄化的直接、间接和总经济增长效应分别呈现出显著的“东部>西部>中部”“东部>西部>中部”和“中部>东部”,且“西部>东部”的空间差异格局;在省际层面,人口老龄化的经济增长效应呈现北高南低空间分布格局。

新时代老年体育高质量发展的逻辑进路与首要任务

发展老年体育是贯彻落实积极应对人口老龄化国家战略的重要举措,目前尚处于探索阶段。新时代推进老年体育高质量发展,需要把握好其逻辑进路的前提和基础,积极落实好其首要任务。首先,发展老年体育的逻辑前提在于重塑观念,既要摒弃对“老年”的消极偏见,积极看待老年人和老年生活,还要把握人口发展规律,积极看待老龄社会,科学认识老年体育的重要价值。其次,发展老年体育的逻辑基础在于遵循规律,既要遵循长寿化和少子化双驱推进人口老龄化演变的基本规律,也要顺应老龄社会作为新型人口社会形态不断演进的发展趋势,在系统集成的国家战略体系中大力发展老年体育。最后,发展老年体育的首要任务在于做好顶层设计,科学认识和主动适应人口老龄化对老年体育的中远期影响,在大力发展银发经济和推进适老化改革的老龄社会治理举措中予以积极应对。

数字经济对低龄老年人就业的影响研究

在人口老龄化程度不断加深的背景下,开发老年劳动力资源可以为缓解我国劳动力短缺提供新的途径。该文基于2018年中国健康与养老追踪调查(CHARLS)数据,以数字经济为切入点,采用Probit模型,系统考察了数字经济对低龄老年人就业的影响及其作用机制。研究发现,数字经济发展显著提升了低龄老年人就业参与的概率。居住在数字经济水平高、人口老龄化程度高地区的低龄老年人受数字经济影响更为显著。数字经济对男性、低学历、低养老金收入的低龄老年人群体的就业参与促进作用较为明显。数字经济主要通过自我认知、互联网使用、以及创新创业效应三个渠道促进低龄老年人就业参与。

未来我国人口中长期发展对经济社会影响研究(2024-2050)

人口老龄化是我国未来发展的重要挑战,未来几十年,我国人口将经历短时期的零增长或轻微性负增长,随后实现恢复性增长,进入高原期阶段。研究发现我国正处于人口生育政策调整的时期,需要通过渐进式延迟退休政策和开发老年人力资源来应对;我国人口老龄化将持续对公共服务产生压力,需要完善人口发展评估指标体系建设,促进人口结构的均衡发展;关注“一老一小”公共服务供给,实现人口与公共服务的优质共享需要建立完善的育儿友好型社会,发展多元化的养老托育服务体系。

人口集聚对经济高质量发展的作用机制研究

经济发展初期,人口集聚对经济增长具有显著的正向促进作用,然而随着人口红利的消失及粗放式发展呈现出的负外部性加剧,现阶段我国经济发展面临巨大挑战,经济增速开始放缓。此时,中国发展迈入新的转折点,国家开始将重心从速度转向质量与效益,更注重经济增长的可持续性。本文紧扣新发展理念,围绕创新、协调、绿色、开放、共享五个维度展开分析,构建人口集聚对经济高质量发展作用机制的理论分析框架,并得出结论:人口集聚对经济高质量发展的影响呈倒“U”型关系,并存在空间溢出效应,产业结构高级化在此过程中起正向调节作用。鉴于此,积极发挥人口集聚的经济效应,制定适宜的人口调控政策,推进经济高质量发展区域协调化及深化产业结构高级化可以有效推进我国经济高质量发展。