Statistical regression models are input-oriented estimation models that account for observation errors. On the other hand, an output-oriented possibility regression model that accounts for system fluctuations is propo...Statistical regression models are input-oriented estimation models that account for observation errors. On the other hand, an output-oriented possibility regression model that accounts for system fluctuations is proposed. Furthermore, the possibility Markov chain is proposed, which has a disidentifiable state (posterior) and a nondiscriminable state (prior). In this paper, we first take up the entity efficiency evaluation problem as a case study of the posterior non-discriminable production possibility region and mention Fuzzy DEA with fuzzy constraints. Next, the case study of the ex-ante non-discriminable event setting is discussed. Finally, we introduce the measure of the fuzzy number and the equality relation and attempt to model the possibility Markov chain mathematically. Furthermore, we show that under ergodic conditions, the direct sum state can be decomposed and reintegrated using fuzzy OR logic. We had already constructed the Possibility Markov process based on the indifferent state of this world. In this paper, we try to extend it to the indifferent event in another world. It should be noted that we can obtain the possibility transfer matrix by full use of possibility theory.展开更多
Bayesian inference model is an optimal processing of incomplete information that, more than other models, better captures the way in which any decision-maker learns and updates his degree of rational beliefs about pos...Bayesian inference model is an optimal processing of incomplete information that, more than other models, better captures the way in which any decision-maker learns and updates his degree of rational beliefs about possible states of nature, in order to make a better judgment while taking new evidence into account. Such a scientific model proposed for the general theory of decision-making, like all others in general, whether in statistics, economics, operations research, A.I., data science or applied mathematics, regardless of whether they are time-dependent, have in common a theoretical basis that is axiomatized by relying on related concepts of a universe of possibles, especially the so-called universe (or the world), the state of nature (or the state of the world), when formulated explicitly. The issue of where to stand as an observer or a decision-maker to reframe such a universe of possibles together with a partition structure of knowledge (i.e. semantic formalisms), including a copy of itself as it was initially while generalizing it, is not addressed. Memory being the substratum, whether human or artificial, wherein everything stands, to date, even the theoretical possibility of such an operation of self-inclusion is prohibited by pure mathematics. We make this blind spot come to light through a counter-example (namely Archimedes’ Eureka experiment) and explore novel theoretical foundations, fitting better with a quantum form than with fuzzy modeling, to deal with more than a reference universe of possibles. This could open up a new path of investigation for the general theory of decision-making, as well as for Artificial Intelligence, often considered as the science of the imitation of human abilities, while being also the science of knowledge representation and the science of concept formation and reasoning.展开更多
Uemura [1] discovered a mapping formula that transforms and maps the state of nature into fuzzy events with a membership function that expresses the degree of attribution. In decision theory in no-data problems, seque...Uemura [1] discovered a mapping formula that transforms and maps the state of nature into fuzzy events with a membership function that expresses the degree of attribution. In decision theory in no-data problems, sequential Bayesian inference is an example of this mapping formula, and Hori et al. [2] made the mapping formula multidimensional, introduced the concept of time, to Markov (decision) processes in fuzzy events under ergodic conditions, and derived stochastic differential equations in fuzzy events, although in reverse. In this paper, we focus on type 2 fuzzy. First, assuming that Type 2 Fuzzy Events are transformed and mapped onto the state of nature by a quadratic mapping formula that simultaneously considers longitudinal and transverse ambiguity, the joint stochastic differential equation representing these two ambiguities can be applied to possibility principal factor analysis if the weights of the equations are orthogonal. This indicates that the type 2 fuzzy is a two-dimensional possibility multivariate error model with longitudinal and transverse directions. Also, when the weights are oblique, it is a general possibility oblique factor analysis. Therefore, an example of type 2 fuzzy system theory is the possibility factor analysis. Furthermore, we show the initial and stopping condition on possibility factor rotation, on the base of possibility theory.展开更多
Uemura [1] discovered the mapping formula for Type 1 Vague events and presented an alternative problem as an example of its application. Since it is well known that the alternative problem leads to sequential Bayesian...Uemura [1] discovered the mapping formula for Type 1 Vague events and presented an alternative problem as an example of its application. Since it is well known that the alternative problem leads to sequential Bayesian inference, the flow of subsequent research was to make the mapping formula multidimensional, to introduce the concept of time, and to derive a Markov (decision) process. Furthermore, we formulated stochastic differential equations to derive them [2]. This paper refers to type 2 vague events based on a second-order mapping equation. This quadratic mapping formula gives a certain rotation named as possibility principal factor rotation by transforming a non-mapping function by a relation between two mapping functions. In addition, the derivation of the Type 2 Complex Markov process and the initial and stopping conditions in this rotation are mentioned. .展开更多
目的探究最好自我(best possible self,BPS)训练对集训期新兵心理健康状况(乐观与悲观情绪、知觉压力和主观幸福感)的干预效果。方法采用非随机对照试验设计方案,以整群抽样法于2023年9月在某新兵训练基地抽取212名新兵,根据建制分为研...目的探究最好自我(best possible self,BPS)训练对集训期新兵心理健康状况(乐观与悲观情绪、知觉压力和主观幸福感)的干预效果。方法采用非随机对照试验设计方案,以整群抽样法于2023年9月在某新兵训练基地抽取212名新兵,根据建制分为研究组(100人,行BPS训练15 min/d)和对照组[112人,行日常生活(typical day,TD)表象训练,15 min/d],连续干预2周。于干预当天(T0),干预实施1周(T1)、2周(T2),干预结束后1周(T3)采用未来预期量表(Future Expectation Scale,FEX)、知觉压力量表(Chinese Perceived Stress Scale,CPSS)、正负性情绪量表(Positive and Negative Affect Scale,PANAS)和生活满意度量表(Satisfaction with Life Scale,SWLS)对2组被试进行测量,评估BPS训练对上述心理健康指标的训练效果。结果2组被试的人口统计学信息及各心理学基线指标均衡。随着训练的进行,2组在悲观情绪、知觉压力和主观幸福感(包含情感和认知幸福感)上的训练效果表现出明显的差异(P<0.05)。研究组T1~T3的悲观情绪相比基线(T0)明显降低(P<0.01),情感幸福感(P<0.01)和认知幸福感(P<0.01)明显升高,其知觉压力在T1(P<0.05)和T3(P<0.01)也明显降低;而对照组在训练前后却无上述明显变化。结论2周BPS训练可有效降低集训期新兵悲观情绪和知觉压力水平,提升其主观幸福感,促进新兵心理健康。展开更多
It is well known that the system (1 + 1) can be unequal to 2, because this system has both observation error and system error. Furthermore, we must provide our mustered service within our cool head and warm heart, whe...It is well known that the system (1 + 1) can be unequal to 2, because this system has both observation error and system error. Furthermore, we must provide our mustered service within our cool head and warm heart, where two states of nature are existing upon us. Any system is regarded as the two-dimensional variable error model. On the other hand, we consider that the fuzziness is existing in this system. Though we can usually obtain the fuzzy number from the possibility theory, it is not fuzzy but possibility, because the possibility function is as same as the likelihood function, and we can obtain the possibility measure by the maximal likelihood method (i.e. max product method proposed by Dr. Hideo Tanaka). Therefore, Fuzzy is regarded as the only one case according to Vague, which has both some state of nature in this world and another state of nature in the other world. Here, we can consider that Type 1 Vague Event in other world can be obtained by mapping and translating from Type 1 fuzzy Event in this world. We named this estimation as Type 1 Bayes-Fuzzy Estimation. When the Vague Events were abnormal (ex. under War), we need to consider that another world could exist around other world. In this case, we call it Type 2 Bayes-Fuzzy Estimation. Where Hori et al. constructed the stochastic different equation upon Type 1 Vague Events, along with the general following probabilistic introduction method from the single regression model, multi-regression model, AR model, Markov (decision) process, to the stochastic different equation. Furthermore, we showed that the system theory approach is Possibility Markov Process, and that the making decision approach is Sequential Bayes Estimation, too. After all, Type 1 Bays-Fuzzy estimation is the special case in Bayes estimation, because the pareto solutions can exist in two stochastic different equations upon Type 2 Vague Events, after we ignore one equation each other (note that this is Type 1 case), we can obtain both its system solution and its decision solution. Here, it is noted that Type 2 Vague estimation can be applied to the shallow abnormal decision problem with possibility reserved judgement. However, it is very important problem that we can have no idea for possibility reserved judgement under the deepest abnormal envelopment (ex. under War). Expect for this deepest abnormal decision problem, Bayes estimation can completely cover fuzzy estimation. In this paper, we explain our flowing study and further research object forward to this deepest abnormal decision problem.展开更多
文摘Statistical regression models are input-oriented estimation models that account for observation errors. On the other hand, an output-oriented possibility regression model that accounts for system fluctuations is proposed. Furthermore, the possibility Markov chain is proposed, which has a disidentifiable state (posterior) and a nondiscriminable state (prior). In this paper, we first take up the entity efficiency evaluation problem as a case study of the posterior non-discriminable production possibility region and mention Fuzzy DEA with fuzzy constraints. Next, the case study of the ex-ante non-discriminable event setting is discussed. Finally, we introduce the measure of the fuzzy number and the equality relation and attempt to model the possibility Markov chain mathematically. Furthermore, we show that under ergodic conditions, the direct sum state can be decomposed and reintegrated using fuzzy OR logic. We had already constructed the Possibility Markov process based on the indifferent state of this world. In this paper, we try to extend it to the indifferent event in another world. It should be noted that we can obtain the possibility transfer matrix by full use of possibility theory.
文摘Bayesian inference model is an optimal processing of incomplete information that, more than other models, better captures the way in which any decision-maker learns and updates his degree of rational beliefs about possible states of nature, in order to make a better judgment while taking new evidence into account. Such a scientific model proposed for the general theory of decision-making, like all others in general, whether in statistics, economics, operations research, A.I., data science or applied mathematics, regardless of whether they are time-dependent, have in common a theoretical basis that is axiomatized by relying on related concepts of a universe of possibles, especially the so-called universe (or the world), the state of nature (or the state of the world), when formulated explicitly. The issue of where to stand as an observer or a decision-maker to reframe such a universe of possibles together with a partition structure of knowledge (i.e. semantic formalisms), including a copy of itself as it was initially while generalizing it, is not addressed. Memory being the substratum, whether human or artificial, wherein everything stands, to date, even the theoretical possibility of such an operation of self-inclusion is prohibited by pure mathematics. We make this blind spot come to light through a counter-example (namely Archimedes’ Eureka experiment) and explore novel theoretical foundations, fitting better with a quantum form than with fuzzy modeling, to deal with more than a reference universe of possibles. This could open up a new path of investigation for the general theory of decision-making, as well as for Artificial Intelligence, often considered as the science of the imitation of human abilities, while being also the science of knowledge representation and the science of concept formation and reasoning.
文摘Uemura [1] discovered a mapping formula that transforms and maps the state of nature into fuzzy events with a membership function that expresses the degree of attribution. In decision theory in no-data problems, sequential Bayesian inference is an example of this mapping formula, and Hori et al. [2] made the mapping formula multidimensional, introduced the concept of time, to Markov (decision) processes in fuzzy events under ergodic conditions, and derived stochastic differential equations in fuzzy events, although in reverse. In this paper, we focus on type 2 fuzzy. First, assuming that Type 2 Fuzzy Events are transformed and mapped onto the state of nature by a quadratic mapping formula that simultaneously considers longitudinal and transverse ambiguity, the joint stochastic differential equation representing these two ambiguities can be applied to possibility principal factor analysis if the weights of the equations are orthogonal. This indicates that the type 2 fuzzy is a two-dimensional possibility multivariate error model with longitudinal and transverse directions. Also, when the weights are oblique, it is a general possibility oblique factor analysis. Therefore, an example of type 2 fuzzy system theory is the possibility factor analysis. Furthermore, we show the initial and stopping condition on possibility factor rotation, on the base of possibility theory.
文摘Uemura [1] discovered the mapping formula for Type 1 Vague events and presented an alternative problem as an example of its application. Since it is well known that the alternative problem leads to sequential Bayesian inference, the flow of subsequent research was to make the mapping formula multidimensional, to introduce the concept of time, and to derive a Markov (decision) process. Furthermore, we formulated stochastic differential equations to derive them [2]. This paper refers to type 2 vague events based on a second-order mapping equation. This quadratic mapping formula gives a certain rotation named as possibility principal factor rotation by transforming a non-mapping function by a relation between two mapping functions. In addition, the derivation of the Type 2 Complex Markov process and the initial and stopping conditions in this rotation are mentioned. .
文摘目的探究最好自我(best possible self,BPS)训练对集训期新兵心理健康状况(乐观与悲观情绪、知觉压力和主观幸福感)的干预效果。方法采用非随机对照试验设计方案,以整群抽样法于2023年9月在某新兵训练基地抽取212名新兵,根据建制分为研究组(100人,行BPS训练15 min/d)和对照组[112人,行日常生活(typical day,TD)表象训练,15 min/d],连续干预2周。于干预当天(T0),干预实施1周(T1)、2周(T2),干预结束后1周(T3)采用未来预期量表(Future Expectation Scale,FEX)、知觉压力量表(Chinese Perceived Stress Scale,CPSS)、正负性情绪量表(Positive and Negative Affect Scale,PANAS)和生活满意度量表(Satisfaction with Life Scale,SWLS)对2组被试进行测量,评估BPS训练对上述心理健康指标的训练效果。结果2组被试的人口统计学信息及各心理学基线指标均衡。随着训练的进行,2组在悲观情绪、知觉压力和主观幸福感(包含情感和认知幸福感)上的训练效果表现出明显的差异(P<0.05)。研究组T1~T3的悲观情绪相比基线(T0)明显降低(P<0.01),情感幸福感(P<0.01)和认知幸福感(P<0.01)明显升高,其知觉压力在T1(P<0.05)和T3(P<0.01)也明显降低;而对照组在训练前后却无上述明显变化。结论2周BPS训练可有效降低集训期新兵悲观情绪和知觉压力水平,提升其主观幸福感,促进新兵心理健康。
文摘It is well known that the system (1 + 1) can be unequal to 2, because this system has both observation error and system error. Furthermore, we must provide our mustered service within our cool head and warm heart, where two states of nature are existing upon us. Any system is regarded as the two-dimensional variable error model. On the other hand, we consider that the fuzziness is existing in this system. Though we can usually obtain the fuzzy number from the possibility theory, it is not fuzzy but possibility, because the possibility function is as same as the likelihood function, and we can obtain the possibility measure by the maximal likelihood method (i.e. max product method proposed by Dr. Hideo Tanaka). Therefore, Fuzzy is regarded as the only one case according to Vague, which has both some state of nature in this world and another state of nature in the other world. Here, we can consider that Type 1 Vague Event in other world can be obtained by mapping and translating from Type 1 fuzzy Event in this world. We named this estimation as Type 1 Bayes-Fuzzy Estimation. When the Vague Events were abnormal (ex. under War), we need to consider that another world could exist around other world. In this case, we call it Type 2 Bayes-Fuzzy Estimation. Where Hori et al. constructed the stochastic different equation upon Type 1 Vague Events, along with the general following probabilistic introduction method from the single regression model, multi-regression model, AR model, Markov (decision) process, to the stochastic different equation. Furthermore, we showed that the system theory approach is Possibility Markov Process, and that the making decision approach is Sequential Bayes Estimation, too. After all, Type 1 Bays-Fuzzy estimation is the special case in Bayes estimation, because the pareto solutions can exist in two stochastic different equations upon Type 2 Vague Events, after we ignore one equation each other (note that this is Type 1 case), we can obtain both its system solution and its decision solution. Here, it is noted that Type 2 Vague estimation can be applied to the shallow abnormal decision problem with possibility reserved judgement. However, it is very important problem that we can have no idea for possibility reserved judgement under the deepest abnormal envelopment (ex. under War). Expect for this deepest abnormal decision problem, Bayes estimation can completely cover fuzzy estimation. In this paper, we explain our flowing study and further research object forward to this deepest abnormal decision problem.
