Inconsistent increasing of climate potential productivity resulting from global warming and land use transitions in the Dongting Lake Basin,from 2000 to 2020

In the face of global warming and increasing impervious surfaces,quantifying the change of climate potential productivity(CPP)is of great significance for the food production planning.Targeting the Dongting Lake Basin,which is a key area for food production in China,this paper uses meteorological data,as well as Climate Change Initiative Land Cover,and Shuttle Radar Topography Mission digital elevation model to investigate the CPP and its changes from 2000 to 2020.The suitability of land for cultivation(SLC),and the land use/land cover change(LUCC)are also considered.The results showed that the CPP varied from 9,825 to 20,895 kg ha^(-1).Even though the newly added impervious surfaces indirectly resulted in the decrease of CPP by of 9.81×10~8 kg,overall,the CPP increased at an average rate of 83.7 kg ha^(-1)a^(-1).Global warming is the strongest driver behind CPP increase,and CPP has played an important role in the conversions between cultivated land and other land types.The structure of land types tends to be optimized against this challenge.

Evaluation on Solar Radiation Resource and Photosynthetic and Thermal Potential Productivity in Shandong Province

To evaluate scientifically the change of photosynthetic and thermal potential productivity caused by climate variation,based on comparison with mean of previous 30 years(1971-2000),the change of total solar radiation,sunshine hours,photosynthetic active radiation,photosynthetic and thermal potential productivity since 2001 were analyzed through data of radiation,sunshine and temperature in Shandong Province from 1971 to 2007,and the change trend was also tested by Mann-Kendall non-parametric statistical met...

Calculation of forest potential productivity for Tianshan forest region

Forest Potential Productivity (FPP) of 8 counties in Tianshan was cal culated, and the potential timber output of these counties was analyzed with Mia mi Model and Thornthwaite Memorial Model. Research results showed that annual av erage output of present stand in Tianshan Forest Region was 3.7 m3/(hm2. a), whi ch reached only 49% of average FPP.

Quantifying the spatial variation in the potential productivity and yield gap of winter wheat in China

Despite the improvement in cultivar characters and management practices, large gaps between the attainable and potential yields still exist in winter wheat of China. Quantifying the crop potential yield is essential for estimating the food production capacity and improving agricultural policies to ensure food security. Gradually descending models and geographic infor- mation system （GIS） technology were employed to characterize the spatial variability of potential yields and yield gaps in winter wheat across the main production region of China. The results showed that during 2000-2010, the average potential yield limited by thermal resource （YGT） was 23.2 Mg ha-1, with larger value in the northern area relative to the southern area. The potential yield limited by the water supply （YGw） generally decreased from north to south, with an average value of 1.9 Mg ha-1 across the entire study region. The highest YGw in the north sub-region （NS） implied that the irrigation and drainage conditions in this sub-region must be improved. The averaged yield loss of winter wheat from nutrient deficiency （YGH） varied between 2.1 and 3.1 Mg ha-1 in the study area, which was greater than the yield loss caused by water limitation. The potential decrease in yield from photo-thermal-water-nutrient-limited production to actual yield （YGo） was over 6.0 Mg ha-1, ranging from 4.9 to 8.3 Mg ha^-1 across the entire study region, and it was more obvious in the southern area than in the northern area. These findings suggest that across the main winter wheat production region, the highest yield gap was induced by thermal resources, followed by other factors, such as the level of farming technology, social policy and economic feasibility. Furthermore, there are opportunities to narrow the yield gaps by making full use of climatic resources and developing a reasonable production plan for winter wheat crops. Thus, meeting the challenges of food security and sustainability in the coming decades is possible but will require considerable changes in water and nutrient management and socio-economic policies.

Effect of Cropland Occupation and Supplement on Light-temperature Potential Productivity in China from 2000 to 2008

There are more people but less land in China,so food safety has always been a most important issue government concerned.With continuous population increase,economic development and environment protection,cropland occupation and supplement are unavoidable.It not only leads to the variation of cropland area,but also makes the light-temperature potential productivity per unit area different due to regional climate differentiation,therefore impacts the total potential productivity and food output eventually.So,it is necessary to analyze the climate differentiation between occupation and supplement cropland areas and to study its impact on total potential productivity,which is significant to reasonably develop natural resources and instruct agricultural arrangement.This study firstly discussed the variation and distribution of occupation and supplement croplands in China from 2000 to 2008,then analyzed the climate differentiation between occupation and supplement cropland areas and its effect on light-temperature potential productivity.The results demonstrate:1) From 2000 to 2008,the cropland variation presented occupation in the south and supplement in the north,but overall decreased.Supplement cropland was mainly from ecological reclamation(77.78%) and was mainly distributed in Northeast China and Northwest China with poor climatic and natural conditions.Occupation cropland was mainly used for construction(52.88%) and ecological restoration(44.78%) purposes,and was mainly distributed in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain,and the middle and lower reaches of the Changjiang(Yangtze) River with better climatic and natural conditions.2) The climate conditions were quite different in supplement and occupation cropland areas.The annual precipitation,annual accumulated temperature and average annual temperature were lower in the supplement cropland area,and its average po-tential productivity per unit was only 62% of occupation cropland area,which was the main reason for the decrease of total potential productivity.3) Cropland occupation and supplement led to the variation of total potential productivity and its spatial distribution.The productivity decreased in the south and increased in the north,but had a net loss of 4.38315×107 t in the whole country.The increase of cropland area was at the cost of reclaiming natural forest and grassland resources,and destroying natural ecological environment,while the decrease of cropland area was mainly due to a lot of cropland occupied by urban-rural construction,which threatened the sustainable use of cropland resources.

Evaluation of Potential Productivity of Woody Energy Crops on Marginal Land in China

Energy crops are a basic material in the bioenergy industry, and they can also mitigate carbon emissions and have environ- mental benefits when planted on marginal lands. The aim of this study was to evaluate the potential productivity of energy crops on marginal lands in China. A mechanistic model, combined with energy crop and land use characteristics, and meteorological and soil parameters, was used to simulate the potential productivity of energy crops. There were three main results. 1） The total marginal land in China was determined to be 104.78 × 106 ha. The 400-mm precipitation boundary line, which is the dividing line between the semi-humid and semi-arid zones in China, also divided the marginal land into shrub land and sparse forest land in the southeast and bare land, bare rock land, and saline alkali land in the northeast. 2） The total area of the marginal land suitable for planting energy crops was determined to be 55.82 × 106 ha, with Xanthoceras sorbifolia and Cerasus humilis mainly grown in the northern China, Jatropha curcas and Comus wilsoniana mainly grown in the southwest and southeast, and Pistacia chinensis mainly grown in the central area, while also having a northeast-southwest zonal distribution. 3） Taking the highest yield in overlapping areas, the potential productivity of target energy crops was determined to be 32.63 × 106 t/yr. Without considering the overlapping areas, the potential productivity was 6.81× 106 t/yr from X. sorbifolia, 8.86× 106t/yr from C. humilis, 7.18 ×106t/yr from J. curcas, 9.55 × 106t/yr from P. chinensis, and 7.78 ×106 t/yr from C. wilsoniana.

Tree Productivity and Water Potential Productivity in Returning Farmland to Forest Project in Datong County, Qinghai Province

From 2002 to 2003, based on the investigation of sample plots and stem analysis of remained plantation communities in the areas of returning farmland to forest in the 1980s in Datong County, Qinghai Province, this paper studies tree productivity and moisture potential productivity of six types of plantations on the land of returning farmland to forest, such as green poplar (Populus cathayana Rehd.) and shrub mixed forest, Asia white birch (Betula platyphylla) and China spruce (Picea asperata) mixed forest, Dahurian larch (Larix gmelinii) pure forest, China spruce pure forest and Asia white birch pure forest and so on. The results show that: in sub-humid region of Loess Plateau, 3 000 trees per hm2 is a proper standard of planting density. Under current condition, the productivity index of green poplar and shrub mixed forest, Asia white birch pure forest, China spruce pure forest, and Asia white birch and China spruce mixed forest with the density of 2 1003 333 trees per hm2 can serve as potential productivity standard of actual biomass of arbor established forest. In sub-humid area, Thornthwaite Model is adopted to estimate plant climate potential productivity, which is about 8 462 kghm2穉1. The actual potential water productive efficiency of Purplecone spruce (Picea purpurea) and Asia white birch pure established forest are 17.22 and 22.14 kgmm1hm2穉1 respectively, and that of green poplar and shrub mixed established forest, and Asia white birch and China spruce mixed established forest are 21.14 and 19.09 kgmm1hm2穉1 respectively. The potential productivity of green poplar and shrub mixed forest, Asia white birch and China spruce mixed forest, China spruce pure forest and Asia white birch pure forest which have grown into forest with the density of 3 000 trees per hm2 have attained or been close to that of local climax community, which is local maximum tree productivity at present. These types of forestation models are the developing direction of the returning farmland to forest project.

Simulation of Potential Productivity of Early Season Rice Varieties in Different Reqions of South China

Rice is a staple food crop in China.Since the 1950’s,many new varieties havebeen used and resulted in great increase ofyield.However there were still some barriersin the nationwide extension of new varietiesdue to the insufficient information about thecharacteristics of varieties.So,it is impor-tant to find ways of determining the potential

Evaluation of Potential Fishery Productivity in Lihu Lake Based on GIS

[Objective] The paper was scientifically evaluate the potential fishery productivity of Lihu using GIS technology.[Method] The evaluation of potential fishery productivity in Lihu was based on GIS and AHP according to the characteristics of fisheries resources in Lihu Lake.The evaluation system included 3 sub-models including water quality,biodiversity and hydrological condition,which totally had 10 indexes.Judgment matrix was constructed based the advices of professors of fisheries resources,and the indicator’s weight were calculated by the process of AHP.The ranking distributing map of potential fishery productivity in Lihu was obtained by the model of raster analysis,raster calculator,spatial overlay and classification models of ARC/INFO.[Result] Potential fishery productivity of Lihu was divided into 4 grades in term of higher,high,general and low,and which covered 2.643 3,3.844 8,1.121 4 and 0.400 5 hm2,respectively.[Conclusion] The study provided theoretical basis for ecological reconstruction of Lihu Lake.

Comparison of the Impacts of Climate Change on Potential Productivity of Different Staple Crops in the Agro-Pastoral Ecotone of North China

The aim of this study is to compare the impacts of climate change on the potential productivity and potential productivity gaps of sunflower （Helianthus annuus）, potato （Solanurn tuberosurn）, and spring wheat （Triticumaestivurn Linn） in the agro-pastoral ecotone （APE） of North China. A crop growth dynamics statistical method was used to calculate the potential productivity affected by light, temperature, precipitation, and soil fertility. The growing season average temperature increased by 0.47, 0.48, and 0.52℃ per decade （p 〈 0.05） for sunflower, potato, and spring wheat, respectively, from 1981 to 2010. Meanwhile, the growing season solar radiation showed a decreasing trend （p 〈 0.05） and the growing season precipitation changed non-significantly across APE. The light-temperature potential productivity increased by 4.48% per decade for sunflower but decreased by 1.58% and 0.59% per decade for potato and spring wheat. The climate soil potential productivity reached only 31.20%, 27.79%, and 20.62% of the light-emperature potential produc- tivity for sunflower, potato, and spring wheat, respectively. The gaps between the light-temperature and climate-soil potential productivity increased by 6.41%, 0.97%, and 1.29% per decade for sunflower, potato, and spring wheat, respectively. The increasing suitability of the climate for sunflower suggested that the sown area of sunflower should be increased compared with potato and spring wheat in APE under future climate warming.

Impact of Climate Change on Maize Potential Productivity and the Potential Productivity Gap in Southwest China

The impact of climate change on maize potential productivity and the potential productivity gap in Southwest China（SWC） are investigated in this paper.We analyze the impact of climate change on the photosynthetic,light-temperature,and climatic potential productivity of maize and their gaps in SWC,by using a crop growth dynamics statistical method.During the maize growing season from 1961 to 2010,minimum temperature increased by 0.20℃ per decade（p 〈 0.01） across SWC.The largest increases in average and minimum temperatures were observed mostly in areas of Yunnan Province.Growing season average sunshine hours decreased by 0.2 h day^（-1） per decade（p 〈 0.01） and total precipitation showed an insignificant decreasing trend across SWC.Photosynthetic potential productivity decreased by 298 kg ha^（-1）per decade（p 〈 0.05）.Both light-temperature and climatic potential productivity decreased（p 〈 0.05） in the northeast of SWC,whereas they increased（p 〈 0.05） in the southwest of SWC.The gap between lighttemperature and climatic potential productivity varied from 12 to 2729 kg ha^（-1）,with the high value areas centered in northern and southwestern SWC.Climatic productivity of these areas reached only 10%-24%of the light-temperature potential productivity,suggesting that there is great potential to increase the maize potential yield by improving water management in these areas.In particular,the gap has become larger in the most recent 10 years.Sensitivity analysis shows that the climatic potential productivity of maize is most sensitive to changes in temperature in SWC.The findings of this study are helpful for quantification of irrigation water requirements so as to achieve maximum yield potentials in SWC.

Modelling of Energy Flow,Rotational Grazing and Potential Productivity in an Alpine Meadow Grazing Ecosystem

An eight-compartment model of the energy dynamics of an alpine meadow-sheep grazing ecosystem was proposed based on SHIYOMI's system approach. The compartments were the above-ground plant portion, the underground live portion including roots, the underground dead portion including roots, the above-ground litter Ⅰ (degradable portion), the above-ground litter Ⅱ (undegradable portion), the sheep intake, the sheep liveweight, and the faeces. Energy flows between the eight compartments were described by eight simultaneous differential equations. All parameters in the model were determined from paddock experiments. The model was designed to provide a practical method for estimating the effects of the number of rotational grazing subplots, grazing period, and grazing pressure on the performance of grazing systems for perennial alpine meadow pasture. The model provides at least 28 different attributes for characterizing the performance of the grazing system. Analyses of 270 simulated rotational grazing systems of summer-autumn meadow pasture (grazing from 1st June to 30 October each year) provided an inference base to support two recommendations concerning management variables. First, with a three-paddock, 29-day grazing period and 30.14kJ·m -2 ·day -1 grazing pressure scheme, the system has the highest total grazing intake, 4250.44kJ·m -2 , during the grazing season. Secondly, with a three-paddock, 7-day grazing period and 28.89kJ·m -2 ·day -1 grazing pressure scheme, the accumulated graze is 4073.34kJ·m -2 . The potential productivity of the alpine meadow under grazing is defined in this paper as the maximal dry biomass of herbage grazed by the grazing animals over the whole growing season. It has been analysed by applying optimal control theory to the model. The productivity is regarded as the objective function to be maximized through optimization of the time course of the grazing pressure, the control variable. The results show that: (1) under constant grazing pressure, the optimal grazing pressure is f 16 =25.90kJ·m -2 ·day -1 (f 46 =f 56 =0) with the highest accumulated intake of J (1) =3268.17kJ·m -2 ; and (2) the optimal grazing pressure is f 16 =25.94kJ·m -2 ·day -1 (f 46 ≠0, f 56 ≠0) with the maxial accumulated intake J (145) =3500.39kJ·m -2 . Under variable grazing pressure, the dynamics of optimal grazing pressure is shown in Fig.6(a) and Eqs. (9)(11), while the potential productivity (the highest accumulated intake) is J (145) =8749.01kJ·m -2 , 2.5 times the constant grazing pressure.[

Impacts of climate change on the potential forest productivity based on a climate-driven biophysical model in northeastern China

Climate warming is expected to influence forest growth,composition and distribution.However,accurately estimating and predicting forest biomass,potential productivity or forest growth is still a challenge for forest managers dealing with land-use at the stand to regional levels.In the present study,we predicted the potential productivity(PP)of forest under current and future climate scenarios(RCP2.6,RCP4.5,RCP6.0 and RCP8.5)in Jilin province,northeastern China by using Paterson’s Climate Vegetation and Productivity(CVP)index model.The PP was validated by comparing it with the mean and maximum net primary production calculated from light energy utilization(GLM_PEM).Our results indicated that using the CVP index model is partially valid for predicting the potential forest productivity in northeastern China.PP exhibited obvious spatial heterogeneity varying from 4.6 to 8.9 m3 ha-1 year-1 with an increasing tendency from northwest to southeast driven by the precipitation across the region.The number of vegetation-active months,precipitation and insolation coefficient were identified as the primary factors affecting PP,but no significant relationship was found for warmest temperature or temperature fluctuation.Under future climate scenarios,PP across the Jilin Province is expected to increase from 1.38%(RCP2.6 in 2050)to 15.30%(RCP8.5 in 2070),especially in the eastern Songnen Plain(SE)for the RCP8.5 scenarios.

AN ANALYSIS ON THE INFLUENCE OF GLOBAL CLIMATIC CHANGE UPON NATURAL ZONES AND AGRICULTURAL POTENTIALPRODUCTIVITY IN CHINA

According to climatic, hydrological, soil and vegetation data from671 stations in China, 12 temperate zones contains 45 natural regions areidentified. In this paper, methods like migration of crop distribution , potentialproductivity, and dynamic modelling are used to research changs of naturalzones and natural regions of eco-envirotunent.

Net Primary Productivity and Management Potential of Artificial Pinus tabulaeformis Forest in Shanxi Province

The dynamic variation of net primary productivity of artificial Pinus tabulaeformis forest was studied in Shanxi Province,and potential productivity of artificial forest was predicted to provide reference for improving quality of regional forest stand. The regression equation was established by using the stratification and harvesting method with the relative growth model. Cumulative method and Thornthwaite Memorial model was used to estimate the actual and potential productivity of the forest. The productivity of P. tabulaeformis forest increased with the increase of age and started decrease with the mature period. The actual productivity of P. tabulaeformis forest was 4. 462 t/( ha·year); the contribution rate of trees was 72. 17% of the total productivity,and with the increase of age,the total biomass increased but productivity decreased at late near-mature forest; the contribution rate of herb layer was 21. 16% in the young forest stage,and then decreased gradually. On the contrary,the contribution rate of shrub layer increased gradually,and the contribution rate of the grassland was more than that of the herb layer,so as the key period of structural management; the average potential productivity of forest was 8. 422 t/( ha·year),and the potential space of P. tabulaeformis was at least 32% in Shanxi Province. In conclusion,the potential space of productivity of P. tabulaeformis was at least 32%,and the primary limiting factor of P. tabulaeformis forest productivity in Shanxi Province was rainfall.

Geological Controls on the CBM Productivity of No.15 Coal Seam of Carboniferous–Permian Taiyuan Formation in Southern Qinshui Basin and Prediction for CBM High-yield Potential Regions

Coalbed methane(CBM) resources in No.15 coal seam of Taiyuan Formation account for 55% of the total CBM resources in southern Qinshui Basin(SQB), and have a great production potential. This study aims at investigating the CBM production in No.15 coal seam and its influence factors. Based on a series of laboratory experiments and latest exploration and development data from local coal mines and CBM companies, the spatial characteristics of gas production of No.15 coal seam were analyzed and then the influences of seven factors on the gas productivity of this coal seam were discussed, including coal thickness, burial depth, gas content, ratio of critical desorption pressure to original coal reservoir pressure(RCPOP), porosity, permeability, and hydrogeological condition. The influences of hydrological condition on CBM production were analyzed based on the discussions of four aspects: hydrogeochemistry, roof lithology and its distribution, hydrodynamic field of groundwater, and recharge rate of groundwater. Finally, a three-level analytic hierarchy process(AHP) evaluation model was proposed for predicting the CBM potentials of the No.15 coal seam in the SQB. The best prospective target area for CBM production of the No.15 coal seam is predicted to be in the districts of Panzhuang, Chengzhuang and south of Hudi.

Evaluation of Potential Land Productivity in Wulushan, West China

The general situation of the total land resources in Wulushan, West China was studied by field investigations with the aid of a GIS software, called Region Manager. The current status of land use in Wulushan is described. The potential land productivity was evaluated by a fuzzy comprehensive method, We take each plot as a basic unit of evaluation on the basis of an index system of land resources in Wulushan which was developed from the investigation data. Evaluation of potential land productivity is the key part of land management. A guideline is presented in this paper for a proper utilization of the land resources and to develop the productive capacity of the land.

The study of productivity in the Bohai Sea-Ⅱ. Primary productivity and estimation of potential fish catch

-On the basis of the data obtained from the surveys in the Bohai Sea during 1982-1983, this paper analysed and discussed the distribution and seasonal variation of primary productivity in the Bohai Sea, and the correlations between the primary productivity and environmental factors. The organic carbon production and prospect of fishery production in the waters of this sea are estimated. It is shown that, there exists production patential in the Bohai Sea, the primary production is 112 gC/ (m2 ?a)the production of organic carbon being 10 million ton per year, the fishery yields 1 million ton and the maximum catch of sea products 0. 5 million ton. The results of the investigation can serve as the basic data for the exploitation, utilization and management of the fishery resources in the Bohai Sea.

Measuring potential food productivity for different areas in Songnen Plain based on analytic hierarchy process

The improved analytic hierachy process method was utilized in this paper,and a variety of factors influencing the food production were classified into several interrelated orderly objectives layers;based on the works above,this paper made an scientific assessment on the influencing factors of food production and production potential of the various regions in the Songnen Plain.The weights and composite indices were calculated with the method of solving weight by AHP's accumulation factor sequence evaluating data,and were processed by single-level sorting and general sorting.The result showed that,the region of Changchun had the biggest potential for improving food production,but smallest for Heihe region.The key reason for the food production discrepancy of a variety of regions in Songnen Plain is the differences in scale of production and climatic conditions,the weight coefficients of which are 0.3654 and 0.2742;however,the weight coefficients of agricultural science and technology investment is very low just 0.1703,which should be increasted in the future.

Analysis of the Identification of Local Agriculture Products in the Municipality of Aileu, Manufahi, and Ainaro That Have Potential for Export and Attract Foreign Investments in Agricultural Sector

The objective of this study is to identify and collect information on local agriculture products and identify local potential agriculture and livestock that can attract foreign investments. Used Stratified Random Sampling and data was collected from both primary and secondary data (both quantitative and qualitative data. The data analyzed used qualitative and quantitative analysis. The supply chain analysis was carried out to develop a description of the value chain to identify potential high-value market areas and current and potential products in the domestic and export markets. The results of the study revealed that most farmers in the research location grow different types of crops and livestock. In particular for Aileu and Ainaro where most of the areas are up-land, therefore, horticulture crops (mustard, cabbage, carrots, and tomato) and coffee are dominated in these areas. For Manufahi, some parts are lowland areas, where most crops grown are maize, cassava, and paddy rice. The study reveals that local potential agriculture products and livestock in the municipalities of Aileu, Ainaro, and Manufahi are vegetable, coffee, maize, and paddy rice, banana, shallot, tangerine, cabbage, carrot, cattle, mung-bean, and banana. To accelerate economic growth, in these municipalities, there is a need to modernize agricultural production, requiring markets for both inputs supply and for the sale of output products. Opportunities to increase the productivity of these products are feasible and this can be done through the use of high-variety seeds and better farm management, and the government and private sector can play an important role in improving productivity as this will have a further implication in improving food security.