Extreme Cold Events in North America and Eurasia in November-December 2022: A Potential Vorticity Gradient Perspective

From 17 November to 27 December 2022, extremely cold snowstorms frequently swept across North America and Eurasia. Diagnostic analysis reveals that these extreme cold events were closely related to the establishment of blocking circulations. Alaska Blocking(AB) and subsequent Ural Blocking(UB) episodes are linked to the phase transition of the North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO) and represent the main atmospheric regimes in the Northern Hemisphere. The downstream dispersion and propagation of Rossby wave packets from Alaska to East Asia provide a large-scale connection between AB and UB episodes. Based on the nonlinear multi-scale interaction(NMI) model, we found that the meridional potential vorticity gradient(PVy) in November and December of 2022 was anomalously weak in the mid-high latitudes from North America to Eurasia and provided a favorable background for the prolonged maintenance of UB and AB events and the generation of associated severe extreme snowstorms. However, the difference in the UB in terms of its persistence,location, and strength between November and December is related to the positive(negative) NAO in November(December). During the La Ni?a winter of 2022, the UB and AB events are related to the downward propagation of stratospheric anomalies, in addition to contributions by La Ni?a and low Arctic sea ice concentrations as they pertain to reducing PVyin mid-latitudes.

Potential Vorticity Structure and Inversion of the Cyclogenesis Over the Yangtze River and Huaihe River Valleys

In this paper, the potential vorticity structure and inversion of the cyclogenesis over the Yangtze River and Huaihe River valleys during 21 23 June 2003 are investigated with a potential vorticity （PV） framework. The cyclogenesis is manifested by a lower-tropospheric PV anomaly over the Yangtze River and Huaihe River valleys at early stages mainly due to latent heat release, which greatly affects the evolution of the associated lower-tropospheric geopotential height and wind fields as demonstrated by piecewise PV inversion. At later stages, an upper-tropospheric PV anomaly develops, resulting in the growth of ridges over the cyclone in both the upstream and downstream, which provide a favorable background field for the low-level cyclone development. But the effect of a surface thermal anomaly always impedes the development of the cyclone to different extents during this cyclogenesis. It is further demonstrated that the position and the strength of the PV anomaly are closely related to the low-level cyclone development, and the lower-tropospheric PV anomaly seems to constitute the most significant feature, for instance, contributing about 60% to the low-level jet （LLJ）.

Impacts of Cloud-Induced Mass Forcing on the Development of Moist Potential Vorticity Anomaly During Torrential Rains

The impacts of cloud-induced mass forcing on the development of the moist potential vorticity (MPV) anomaly associated with torrential rains are investigated by using NCEP/NCAR 1? × 1? data. The MPV tendency equation with the cloud-induced mass forcing is derived, and applied to the torrential rain event over the Changjiang River-Huaihe River Valleys during 26–30 June 1999. The result shows that positive anomalies are located mainly between 850 hPa and 500 hPa, while the maximum MPV, maximum positive tendency of the MPV, and maximum surface rainfall are nearly collocated. The cloud-induced mass forcing contributes to the positive tendency of the moist potential vorticity anomaly. The results indicate that the MPV may be used to track the propagation of rain systems for operational applications.

Study on Moist Potential Vorticity and Symmetric Instabilityduring a Heavy Rain Event Occurred inthe Jiang-Huai Valleys

In the light of the theory on moist potential vorticity (MPV) investigation was undertaken of the 700 hPa vertical (horizontal) component MP1 (MPV2) for the heavy rain event occurring in July 5–6, 1991. Results show that the distribution features of the two components were closely related to the development of a mesoscale cyclone as a rainstorm-causing weather system in the lower troposphere in such a way that the ambient atmosphere of which MPV1 > 0 and MPV2 < 0 with |MPV1| ≥ |MPV2| favored the genesis of conditional symmetric instability (CSI) and that, as indicated by calculations, a CSI sector was really existent in the lower troposphere during the heavy rain happening and contributed greatly to its development.

Sensitivity of Cyclone Tracks to the Initial Moisture Distribution:A Moist Potential Vorticity Perspective

In this study, the characteristics of moist potential vorticity （MPV） in the vicinity of a surface cyclone center and their physical processes axe investigated. A prognostic equation of surface absolute vorticity is then used to examine the relationship between the cyclone tracks and negative MPV （NMPV） using numerical simulations of the life cycle of an extratropical cyclone. It is shown that the MPV approach developed herein, i.e., by tracing the peak NMPV, can be used to help trace surface cyclones during their development and mature stages. Sensitivity experiments are conducted to investigate the impact of different initial moisture fields on the effectiveness of the MPV approach. It is found that the lifetime of NMPV depends mainly on the initial moisture field, the magnitude of condensational heating, and the advection of NMPV. When NMPV moves into a saturated environment at or near a cyclone center, it can trace better the evolution of the surface cyclone due to the conservative property of MPV. It is also shown that the NMPV generation is closely associated with the coupling of large potential temperature and moisture gradients as a result of frontogenesis processes. Analyses indicate that condensation, confluence and tilting play important but different roles in determining the NMPV generation. NMPV is generated mainly through the changes in the strength of baroclinicity and in the direction of the moisture gradient due to moist and/or dry air mass intrusion into the baroclinic zone.

Idealized Numerical Simulation Study of the Potential Vorticity Banners over a Mesoscale Mountain: Dry Adiabatic Process

Topography-induced potential vorticity （PV） banners over a mesoscale topography （Dabie Mountain, hereafter DM） in eastern China, under an idealized dry adiabatic flow, are studied with a mesoscale numerical model, ARPS. PV banners generate over the leeside of the DM with a maximal intensity of ～1.5 PVU, and extend more than 100 km downstream, while the width varies from several to tens of kilometers, which contrasts with the half-width of the peaks along the ridge of the DM. Wave breaking occurs near the leeside surface of the DM, and leads to a strong PV generation. Combining with the PV generation, due to the friction and the flow splitting upstream, the PV is advected downstream, and then forms the PV banners over the DM. The PV banners are sensitive to the model resolution, Coriolis force, friction, subgrid turbulent mixing, stratification, the upstream wind speed and wind direction. The negative PV banners have a more compact connection with the low level turbulent kinetic energy. The PV banners are built up by the baroclinic and barotropic components. The barotropic-associated PV can identify the distribution of the PV banners, while the baroclinic one only has important contributions on the flanks and on the leeside near the topography. PV fluxes are diagnosed to investigate the influence of friction on the PV banners. Similar patterns are found between the total PV flux and the advective PV flux, except near the surface and inside the dipole of the PV banners, where the nonadvective PV flux associated with the friction has a net negative contribution.

Structure of the Potential Vorticity of an Explosive Cyclone over the Eastern Asian Region in Late November 2013

An explosive extratropical cyclone(EC)over the Eastern Asian region that caused two shipwrecks is analyzed using ERA-Interim reanalysis data from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.Analyses of the evolution of the EC reveal that the positive potential vorticity(PV)at the upper-tropospheric level displays a hook-shaped structure during the mature period of the cyclone.The PV distribution forms a vertically coherent PV structure called a PV tower.The vertical distribution of the PV can induce and strengthen cyclonic circulation from the lower-to upper-levels of troposphere,which is an important deepening mechanism of explosive cyclone.The PV tower occurs approximately ten hours prior to the development of surface occlusion in the cyclone.The evolution of surface fronts closely follows the development of the horizontal upper-tropospheric PV.This tandem development is largely attributed to the ability of the positive upper-tropospheric PV and the PV tower to induce cyclonic circulation simultaneously.The kinematic wrap-up process of cyclonic circulation also accelerates the formation of warm occlusion.A conceptual model of the distributions of positive PV and potential temperature combining the perspectives of dynamic tropopause folding,PV tower,and atmospheric stability,including westward tilting and baroclinicity,is proposed.This model can illustrate the explosive deepening mechanism of ECs.The regions of convective instability and rainfall determined by this model are consistent with those identified from the actual observation.

Interannual Influences of the Surface Potential Vorticity Forcing over the Tibetan Plateau on East Asian Summer Rainfall

The influences of interannual surface potential vorticity forcing over the Tibetan Plateau(TP)on East Asian summer rainfall(EASR)and upper-level circulation are explored in this study.The results show that the interannual EASR and associated circulations are closely related to the surface potential vorticity negative uniform leading mode(PVNUM)over the TP.When the PVNUM is in the positive phase,more rainfall occurs in the Yangtze River valley,South Korea,Japan,and part of northern China,less rainfall occurs in southern China,and vice versa.A possible mechanism by which PVNUM affects EASR is proposed.Unstable air induced by the positive phase of PVNUM could stimulate significant upward motion and a lower-level anomalous cyclone over the TP.As a result,a dipole heating mode with anomalous cooling over the southwestern TP and anomalous heating over the southeastern TP is generated.Sensitivity experiment results regarding this dipole heating mode indicate that anomalous cooling over the southwestern TP leads to local and northeastern Asian negative height anomalies,while anomalous heating over the southeastern TP leads to local positive height anomalies.These results greatly resemble the realistic circulation pattern associated with EASR.Further analysis indicates that the anomalous water vapor transport associated with this anomalous circulation pattern is responsible for the anomalous EASR.Consequently,changes in surface potential vorticity forcing over the TP can induce changes in EASR.

Tracking Surface Cyclones with Moist Potential Vorticity

Surface cyclone tracks are investigated in the context of moist potential vorticity (MPV). A prognostic equation of surface absolute vorticity is derived which provides a basis for using negative MPV (NMPV) in the troposphere as an alternative approach to track surface cyclones. An observed case study of explosive lee cyclogenesis is performed to test the e?ectiveness of the MPV approach. It is shown that when a surface cyclone signal is absent due to the blocking of the Rocky Mountains, the surface cyclone can be well identi?ed by tracing the peak NMPV.

Symmetry analysis and explicit solutions of the (3+1)-dimensional baroclinic potential vorticity equation

This paper investigates an important high-dimensional model in the atmospheric and oceanic dynamics-（3＋1）- dimensional nonlinear baroclinic potential vorticity equation by the classical Lie group method. Its symmetry algebra, symmetry group and group-invariant solutions are analysed. Otherwise, some exact explicit solutions are obtained from the corresponding （2＋1）-dimensional equation, the inviscid barotropic nondivergent vorticy equation. To show the properties and characters of these solutions, some plots as well as their possible physical meanings of the atmospheric circulation are given out.

Moist Potential Vorticity Vector for Diagnosis of Heavy Rainfall Events in Tanzania

In this paper, we modify the convective vorticity vector (CVV) defined as a cross product of absolute vorticity and gradient of equivalent potential temperature to moist potential vorticity vector (MPVV) defined as a cross product of absolute vorticity () and the gradient of the moist-air entropy potential temperature (). The patterns of (MPVV) are compared with the patterns of heavy rainfall events that occurred over different regions in Tanzania on 20th to 22nd December, 2011 and on 5th to 8th May, 2015. Moreover, the article aimed at assessing the relative contributions of the magnitude, horizontal and vertical components of (MPVV) detecting on the observed patterns of rainfall events. Dynamic and thermodynamic variables: wind speed, temperature, atmospheric pressure and relative humidity from numerical output generated by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model running at Tanzania Meteorological Agency (TMA) were used to compute MPVV. It is found that MPVV provide accurate tracking of locations received heavy rainfall, suggesting its potential use as a dynamic tracer for heavy rainfall events in Tanzania. Finally it is found that the first and second components of MPVV contribute almost equally in tracing locations received heavy rainfall events. The magnitude of MPVV described the locations received heavy rainfall events better than the components.

Potential Vorticity Diagnostic Analysis on the Impact of the Easterlies Vortex on the Short-term Movement of the Subtropical Anticyclone over the Western Pacific in the Mei-yu Period

By employing NCEP−NCAR 1°×1°reanalysis datasets,the mechanism of the easterlies vortex(EV)affecting the short-term movement of the subtropical anticyclone over the western Pacific(WPSA)in the mei-yu period is examined using potential vorticity(PV)theory.The results show that when the EV and the westerlies vortex(WV)travel west/east to the same longitude of 120°E,the WPSA suddenly retreats.The EV and WV manifest as the downward transport of PV in the upper troposphere,and the variation of the corresponding high-value regions of PV significantly reflects the intensity changes of the EV and WV.The meridional propagation of PV causes the intensity change of the EV.The vertical movement on both sides of the EV is related to the position of the EV relative to the WPSA and the South Asian high(SAH).When the high PV in the easterlies and westerlies arrive at the same longitude in the meridional direction,the special circulation pattern will lower the position of PV isolines at the ridge line of the WPSA.Thus,the cyclonic circulation at the lower level will be strengthened,causing the abnormally eastward retreat of the WPSA.Analysis of the PV equation at the isentropic surface indicates that when the positive PV variation west of the EV intensifies,it connects with the positive PV variation east of the WV,forming a positive PV band and making the WPSA retreat abnormally.The horizontal advection of the PV has the greatest effect.The contribution of the vertical advection of PV and the vertical differential of heating is also positive,but the values are relatively small.The contribution of the residual was negative and it becomes smaller before and after the WPSA retreats.

ANALYSIS OF EFFECT OF ENVIRONMENTAL POTENTIAL VORTICITY LOCATED AT SOUTH EDGE OF SOUTH ASIA HIGH ON INTENSIFICATION OF TROPICAL CYCLONES

The NCEP 1°×1°reanalysis of June-to-September dataset between 2002 to 2009 is used in this study to conduct statistical analysis of the relationship between the environmental potential vorticity(PV)on 150 hPa located at the south edge of South Asia High(SAH)and TCs making landfall.The results show that 23 of the TCs are affected by the PV on 150 hPa located at the south edge of SAH between 2002 to2009,and three TCs'center pressure decline after the high-value environmental PV moves to the center of the TCs.These three TCs are Senlaku(0216),Bilis(0604)and Linfa(0903).Through diagnostic analysis from the viewpoint of isolines,we determined the relationship between the intensification of these TCs and the PV anomaly at high levels;the isentropic surface is close to the high level’s PV anomaly under the influence of the 150-hPa PV anomaly,leading to the decline of isentropic surfaces on both sides of the PV anomaly.Then the warm core of the middle and high levels of the TC strengthens and PV increases at the middle level,and both of them are beneficial to the reinforcement of the cyclonic vorticity in the low level.As a result,the center pressure of the TC declines.According to Wu’s theory of Slantwise Vorticity Development(SVD),the incline of the isentropic surfaces leads to the development of vertical vorticity,contributing to the vertical motion and the release of the latent heat.Then the warm core of the TC strengthens and the TC strengthens,too.Otherwise,piecewise PV inversion also shows that the high-level PV influences the mid-level more than the low level.

Three types of generalized Kadomtsev-Petviashvili equations arising from baroclinic potential vorticity equation

By means of the reductive perturbation method, three types of generalized （2＋l）-dimensional Kadomtsev- Petviashvili （KP） equations are derived from the baroclinic potential vorticity （BPV） equation, including the modified KP （mKP） equation, standard KP equation and cylindrical KP （cKP） equation. Then some solutions of generalized cKP and KP equations with certain conditions are given directly and a relationship between the generalized mKP equation and the mKP equation is established by the symmetry group direct method proposed by Lou et al. From the relationship and the solutions of the mKP equation, some solutions of the generalized mKP equation can be obtained. Furthermore, some approximate solutions of the baroclinic potential vorticity equation are derived from three types of generalized KP equations.

DIAGNOSIS OF THE DEVELOPMENTAL MECHANISM OF THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE USING POTENTIAL VORTICITY INVERSION OF FRONTOGENESIS

This paper diagnoses and analyses the developmental mechanism of a process of extratropical transition of a tropical cyclone which occurred over West Pacific Ocean based on a diagnosis method of potential vorticity inversion of frontogenesis.The study diagnoses quantitatively the role and effect of dynamic influence of westerly cold troughs,middle-latitude baroclinic frontal zones,cyclone cycles and unbalanced wind fields during the different stages of the extratropical transition of a tropical cyclone,and also discusses the interaction between them and the developmental mechanism.The results show that there are different developmental mechanisms during each stage of the extratropical transition and the processes are also unbalanced.

Diagnosis Analysis on the Moist Potential Vorticity of a Regional Rainstorm on May 27,2013 in Eastern Jiangxi Province

Based on conventional meteorological data and NCEP 1°×1° DEG reanalysis data, reasons for a regional rainstorm in Fuzhou, Jiangxi Province on May 27, 2013 was analyzed from the aspects of weather situation, influencing systems, water vapor, dynamic and thermal instability. The results showed that the regional rainstorm happened in the warm area while the Jianghuai cyclone moved eastwards, and it was a short-dura- tion strong convective rainstorm. Jianghuai cyclone, 500 hPa trough, low vortex and southwesterly jet were the main influencing systems of the rain- storm. The precipitation was mainly the result of release of convective unstable energy in the lower troposphere. MPVl was negative in the lower troposphere and positive in the middle and upper troposphere. Moist potential vorticity in the upper troposphere moved downwards, which was ad- vantageous to the release of the unstable energy and then increased precipitation. The negative moist potential vorticity center in the lower tropo- sphere can reflect the position and intensity of the rainstorm, and the intensity and duration of precipitation were consistent with the increase of the negative MPVl. The distribution of MPV2 showed that as atmospheric baroclinicity increased, heavy rain always occurred in the lower troposphere where baroclinicity was strong. The areas with negative baroclincity in the lower troposphere matched with rainstorm center very well.

Analysis on the Moist Potential Vorticity and Conditional Symmetric Instability of a Rainstorm

[Objective] The research aimed to analyze the moist potential vorticity (MPV) and conditional symmetric instability (CSI) of a rainstorm in Guangxi in the prior flood season. [Method] Based on the conventional observation data, precipitation data from the automatic station and 1°×1° six-hourly reanalyzed data from NCEP, MPV and CSI in a rainstorm process which occurred in the prior flood season in Guangxi were analyzed. The characteristics of MPV component and role of CSI before and after the rainstorm occurrence were discussed. [Result] The dense belt of isoline in the southeast of MPV1 positive-value area (MPV2 negative-value area) at 925 hPa, the underneath of sloping MPV1 positive-value column (MPV2 negative-value column) on the profile map and the underneath of dense belt of θe isoline had the good corresponding relationships with the falling zone of strong precipitation. After the system developed strongly, the enhancements of gradient and intensity of MPV1 and MPV2 predicted the rainstorm increase. In the beginning period of strong precipitation occurrence, the convective instability at 850-650 hPa co-existed with CSI. The convective instability and vertical movement played the main role. In the middle and latter periods of strong precipitation, the high-altitude weak cold air further invaded southward. It triggered the release of unstable energy, and compelled that the original sloping θe dense belt became steep. It was favorable for the development of sloping vorticity, and the atmosphere gradually turned into the neutral state of convection. CSI and ramp motion played the major role. Then, the rainstorm continued. [Conclusion] The research provided the theory basis for the application of MPV and CSI into the local routine business.

Analysis of Isentropic Potential Vorticity for a Strong Cold Wave During 2004/2005 Winter

Using the NCAR/NCEP daily reanalysis data from 1 December 2004 to 28 February 2005, the isentropic potential vorticity （IPV） analysis of a strong cold wave from 22 December 2004 to 1 January 2005 was made. It is found that the strong cold air of the cold wave originated from the lower stratosphere and upper troposphere of the high latitude in the Eurasian continent and the Arctic area. Before the outbreak of the cold wave, the strong cold air of high PV propagated down to the south of Lake Baikal, and was cut off by a low PV air of low latitude origin, forming a dipole-type circulation pattern with the low PV center （blocking high） in the northern Eurasian continent and the high PV one （low vortex） in the southern part. Along with decaying of the low PV center, the high PV center （strong cold air） moved towards the southeast along the northern flank of the Tibetan Plateau. When it arrived in East China, the air column of high PV rapidly stretched downward, leading to increase in its cyclonic vorticity, which made the East Asian major trough to deepen rapidly, and finally induced the outbreak of the cold wave. Further analysis indicates that in the southward and downward propagation process of the high PV center, the air flow west and north of the high PV center on isentropic surface subsided along the isentropic surface, resulting in rapid development of Siberian high, finally leading to the southward outbreak of the strong cold wave.

ON THE MAINTENANCE OF BLOCKING ANTICYCLONES OF NORTHERN HEMISPHERE—PART I:QUASI-GEOSTROPHIC POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANALYSIS

Four observed blocking anticyclones in different regions of the Northern Hemisphere are in- vestigated.Analyses show that there exist distinct differences in the maintenance of the time-mean quasi-geostrophic potential vorticity(PV)low in 300 hPa within blocking areas.In two Pacific blocking cases,the PV advection by time-mean flow tends to flow the PV low to northwestern part of the blocking highs,and thus is beneficial to the maintenance of the blockings'strength.The transfer by transient eddies acts to balance the effect of the time-mean flow.In the Atlantic and Alaska blocking cases,however,the advection of mean flow tends to flow the PV low eastward. The PV transfer by transient eddies acts to flow potential vorticity low to the western part of the blocking ridges and also to balance the time-mean flow's effect.Thus,in the latter two cases,it is the transfer by the transient eddies that acts to maintain the blockings.

A Case Study on a Quasi-Stationary Meiyu Front Bringing About Continuous Rainstorms with Piecewise Potential Vorticity Inversion

A 4-day persistent rainstorm resulting in serious flooding disasters occurred in the north of Fujian Province under the influences of a quasi-stationary Meiyu front during 5-8 June 2006. With 1°× 1° latitude and longitude NCEP reanalysis data and the ground surface rainfall, using the potential vorticity （PV） analysis and PV inversion method, the evolution of main synoptic systems, and the corresponding PV and PV perturbation （or PV anomalies） and their relationship with heavy rainfall along the Meiyu front are analyzed in order to investigate the physical mechanism of the formation, development, and maintenance of the Meiyu front. Furthermore, the PV perturbations related to different physics are separated to investigate their different roles in the formation and development of the Meiyu front. The results show： the formation and persistence of the Meiyu front in a quasi-WE orientation are mainly due to the maintenance of the high-pressure systems in its south/north sides （the West Pacific subtropical high/ the high pressure band extending from the Korean Peninsula to east of North China）. The Meiyu front is closely associated with the PV in the lower troposphere. The location of the positive PV perturbation on the Meiyu front matches well with the main heavy rainfall area along the Meiyu front. The PV inversion reveals that the balanced winds satisfying the nonlinear balanced assumption represent to a large extent the real atmospheric flow and its evolution basically reflects the variation of stream flow associated with the Meiyu front. The unbalanced flow forms the convergence band of the Meiyu front and it mainly comes from the high-pressure system in the north side of the Meiyu front. The positive PV perturbation related to latent heat release in the middle-lower troposphere is one of the main factors influencing the formation and development of the Meiyu front. The positive vorticity band from the total balanced winds is in accordance with the Meiyu front band and the magnitude of the positive vorticity from the balanced wind is very close to that from real winds. The PV perturbation in the boundary layer is to a certain degree favorable for the formation and development of Meiyu front. In general, the lower boundary potential temperature perturbation is not beneficial to the formation and development, which is attributed to the relatively low surface temperature due to surface evaporation and solar short-wave radiation reduction shaded by clouds on the Meiyu front band, however, it has some diurnal variation. The effect of PV perturbation in the upper troposphere on the formation and development of the Meiuyu front is relatively weaker than others＇ and not beneficial to the formation and development of the Meiyu front, but it is enhanced in the period of Meiyu front＇s fast southward movement when the deep North China trough develops and moves southeastward. Rest PV perturbation unrelated to latent heat release in the middle-lower troposphere plays a certain role in the Meiyu front＇s fast southward movement. Lastly, it should be pointed out that the different PV perturbations maybe play a different role in different stages of the Meiyu front development.