This research aims to study the sustainability of Taiwan power supplychain based on system dynamics forecasting. The paper tries to investigate electricity shortage effects not only on the industrial side, but also f...This research aims to study the sustainability of Taiwan power supplychain based on system dynamics forecasting. The paper tries to investigate electricity shortage effects not only on the industrial side, but also from the standpointof society. In our model, different forecasting methods such as linear regression,time series analysis, and gray forecasting are also considered to predict the parameters. Further tests such as the structure, dimension, historical fit, and sensitivityof the model are also conducted in this paper. Through analysis forecasting result,we believe that the demand for electricity in Taiwan will continue to increase to acertain level for a period of time in the future. This phenomenon is closely relatedto Taiwan’s economic development, especially industrial development. We alsopoint out that electricity prices in Taiwan do not match with high industrialdemand, and that prices are still slightly low. Finally, the future growth trend ofTaiwan’s electricity demand has not changed, and ensuring adequate supply tomeet electricity demand to prevent potential power shortages will pose somedifficulty.展开更多
Under the background of implementing renewable portfolio standards and the ever-improving tradable green certificate scheme,the increasingly environmentally-friendly preference of power users is leading to changes in ...Under the background of implementing renewable portfolio standards and the ever-improving tradable green certificate scheme,the increasingly environmentally-friendly preference of power users is leading to changes in electricity demand,which,in turn,is driving changes in the decision-making behaviors of various actors in the power supply chain.Based on this,with the goal of pursuing maximum profit,consumer-power-demand functions have been introduced with some consideration of the factors of consumer preference to establish an optimal profit model for each trading subject in non-cooperative states of the power supply chain,under the constraints of meeting renewable energy portfolio standards.Here,the optimal strategy of each trading subject is presented by adopting the reverse induction method.Furthermore,examples are used to analyze factors such as the influence of environmental protection preferences,quota ratios,price substitutions,and market demand as well as the optimal profit of each trading subject in view of providing a reference for the decision-making in the power supply chain trading subjects.展开更多
This paper studies firms’ innovation behavior in a supply chain where two firms first invest to reduce component’ cost according to different innovation modes (non-cooperative innovation, sequential innovation, and ...This paper studies firms’ innovation behavior in a supply chain where two firms first invest to reduce component’ cost according to different innovation modes (non-cooperative innovation, sequential innovation, and cooperative innovation) and then decide the prices according to different market powers (Supplier-Stackelberg, Manufacturer-Stackelberg, and Nash). We find that both the supplier and the manufacturer make more innovation efforts and profits under sequential innovation than under non-cooperative innovation when the market power is any one of three structures. Moreover, the firm prefers to invest as the follower in sequential innovation. We also show that the firms are easy to achieve cooperative innovation under symmetrical power market structure than asymmetrical power market structure. By using a concept named innovation-desirability-index that measures a firm’s desire to innovate in the supply chain, we show that it is optimal for a firm in the chain to cooperate with such a firm whose market power is close to his own if the innovation-desirability-index is higher, otherwise with such a firm whose market power is lower to his own.展开更多
In this study, a fuzzy probability-based Markov chain model is developed for forecasting regional long-term electric power demand. The model can deal with the uncertainties in electric power system and reflect the vag...In this study, a fuzzy probability-based Markov chain model is developed for forecasting regional long-term electric power demand. The model can deal with the uncertainties in electric power system and reflect the vague and ambiguous during the process of power load forecasting through allowing uncertainties expressed as fuzzy parameters and discrete intervals. The developed model is applied to predict the electric power demand of Beijing from 2011 to 2019. Different satisfaction degrees of fuzzy parameters are considered as different levels of detail of the statistic data. The results indicate that the model can reflect the high uncertainty of long term power demand, which could support the programming and management of power system. The fuzzy probability Markov chain model is helpful for regional electricity power system managers in not only predicting a long term power load under uncertainty but also providing a basis for making multi-scenarios power generation/development plans.展开更多
Based on the two-stage Stackelberg game method, value creation of supply chain cooperation between coal enterprise and power utilities is studied by formulating profit functions of coal and power enterprises and calcu...Based on the two-stage Stackelberg game method, value creation of supply chain cooperation between coal enterprise and power utilities is studied by formulating profit functions of coal and power enterprises and calculating the maximum profit. According to the analysis, it is found that the profit from supply chain cooperation between coal and power enterprises is more than that of non- cooperation. The cooperation is validated to be beneficial for both units; however, the profit is mainly taken by the power enterprise. Thus, it is necessary to set up the incentive mechanism to distribute cooperation value between coal and power enterprises to promote their continual cooperation.展开更多
文摘This research aims to study the sustainability of Taiwan power supplychain based on system dynamics forecasting. The paper tries to investigate electricity shortage effects not only on the industrial side, but also from the standpointof society. In our model, different forecasting methods such as linear regression,time series analysis, and gray forecasting are also considered to predict the parameters. Further tests such as the structure, dimension, historical fit, and sensitivityof the model are also conducted in this paper. Through analysis forecasting result,we believe that the demand for electricity in Taiwan will continue to increase to acertain level for a period of time in the future. This phenomenon is closely relatedto Taiwan’s economic development, especially industrial development. We alsopoint out that electricity prices in Taiwan do not match with high industrialdemand, and that prices are still slightly low. Finally, the future growth trend ofTaiwan’s electricity demand has not changed, and ensuring adequate supply tomeet electricity demand to prevent potential power shortages will pose somedifficulty.
基金supported by Project of Philosophy and Social Science Foundation of Shanghai,China(Grant No.2020BGL011).
文摘Under the background of implementing renewable portfolio standards and the ever-improving tradable green certificate scheme,the increasingly environmentally-friendly preference of power users is leading to changes in electricity demand,which,in turn,is driving changes in the decision-making behaviors of various actors in the power supply chain.Based on this,with the goal of pursuing maximum profit,consumer-power-demand functions have been introduced with some consideration of the factors of consumer preference to establish an optimal profit model for each trading subject in non-cooperative states of the power supply chain,under the constraints of meeting renewable energy portfolio standards.Here,the optimal strategy of each trading subject is presented by adopting the reverse induction method.Furthermore,examples are used to analyze factors such as the influence of environmental protection preferences,quota ratios,price substitutions,and market demand as well as the optimal profit of each trading subject in view of providing a reference for the decision-making in the power supply chain trading subjects.
文摘This paper studies firms’ innovation behavior in a supply chain where two firms first invest to reduce component’ cost according to different innovation modes (non-cooperative innovation, sequential innovation, and cooperative innovation) and then decide the prices according to different market powers (Supplier-Stackelberg, Manufacturer-Stackelberg, and Nash). We find that both the supplier and the manufacturer make more innovation efforts and profits under sequential innovation than under non-cooperative innovation when the market power is any one of three structures. Moreover, the firm prefers to invest as the follower in sequential innovation. We also show that the firms are easy to achieve cooperative innovation under symmetrical power market structure than asymmetrical power market structure. By using a concept named innovation-desirability-index that measures a firm’s desire to innovate in the supply chain, we show that it is optimal for a firm in the chain to cooperate with such a firm whose market power is close to his own if the innovation-desirability-index is higher, otherwise with such a firm whose market power is lower to his own.
文摘In this study, a fuzzy probability-based Markov chain model is developed for forecasting regional long-term electric power demand. The model can deal with the uncertainties in electric power system and reflect the vague and ambiguous during the process of power load forecasting through allowing uncertainties expressed as fuzzy parameters and discrete intervals. The developed model is applied to predict the electric power demand of Beijing from 2011 to 2019. Different satisfaction degrees of fuzzy parameters are considered as different levels of detail of the statistic data. The results indicate that the model can reflect the high uncertainty of long term power demand, which could support the programming and management of power system. The fuzzy probability Markov chain model is helpful for regional electricity power system managers in not only predicting a long term power load under uncertainty but also providing a basis for making multi-scenarios power generation/development plans.
文摘Based on the two-stage Stackelberg game method, value creation of supply chain cooperation between coal enterprise and power utilities is studied by formulating profit functions of coal and power enterprises and calculating the maximum profit. According to the analysis, it is found that the profit from supply chain cooperation between coal and power enterprises is more than that of non- cooperation. The cooperation is validated to be beneficial for both units; however, the profit is mainly taken by the power enterprise. Thus, it is necessary to set up the incentive mechanism to distribute cooperation value between coal and power enterprises to promote their continual cooperation.
