Rolling Decision Model of Thermal Power Retrofit and Generation Expansion Planning Considering Carbon Emissions and Power Balance Risk

With the increasing urgency of the carbon emission reduction task,the generation expansion planning process needs to add carbon emission risk constraints,in addition to considering the level of power adequacy.However,methods for quantifying and assessing carbon emissions and operational risks are lacking.It results in excessive carbon emissions and frequent load-shedding on some days,although meeting annual carbon emission reduction targets.First,in response to the above problems,carbon emission and power balance risk assessment indicators and assessment methods,were proposed to quantify electricity abundance and carbon emission risk level of power planning scenarios,considering power supply regulation and renewable energy fluctuation characteristics.Secondly,building on traditional two-tier models for low-carbon power planning,including investment decisions and operational simulations,considering carbon emissions and power balance risks in lower-tier operational simulations,a two-tier rolling model for thermal power retrofit and generation expansion planning was established.The model includes an investment tier and operation assessment tier and makes year-by-year decisions on the number of thermal power units to be retrofitted and the type and capacity of units to be commissioned.Finally,the rationality and validity of the model were verified through an example analysis,a small-scale power supply system in a certain region is taken as an example.The model can significantly reduce the number of days of carbon emissions risk and ensure that the power balance risk is within the safe limit.

Differentiation degree combination weighting method for investment decision-making risk assessment in power grid construction projects

Power grid construction projects are distinguished by their wide variety,high investment,long payback period,and close relation to national development and human welfare.To improve the investment accuracy in such projects and effectively prevent investment risks,this paper proposes an investment optimization decision-making method for multiple power grid construction projects under a certain investment scale.Firstly,an in-depth analysis of the characteristics and development requirements of China’s power grid projects was performed.Thereafter,the time sequence and holographic method was adopted to conduct multi-dimensional,multi-perspective risk assessment of different parts of power grid projects,and a holographic risk assessment index system was developed.Moreover,an investment decision model considering the comprehensive risk based on combination weighting was developed according to the output and input of power grid construction projects.A new combination weighting optimization method that takes into account the investment willingness of enterprises was designed to improve the current weighting evaluation methods.Finally,the validity and applicability of the proposed evaluation method were verified by case examples.

Study of Lightning Damage Risk Assessment Method for Power Grid

Based on the idea of risk evaluation, the existing lightning damage risk assessment methods are reviewed and summarized in this paper. And the power grid lightning damage risk assessment system is established on the basis of lightning flashover risk evaluation methodology for transmission lines, and adopts the improved Analytic Hierarchy Process as the core algorithm. It can comprehensively evaluate the risk for transmission lines of regional grid, various sections of a line and each tower of the section, considering much more impact factors, including the running time of line, importance of grades, equipment damage, and the success rate of lightning stroke reclosing and so on. According to the calculation results of the risk assessment of the analytic hierarchy process and lightning flashover risk evaluation, the principles and methods of grade classification for power grid lightning damage risk map are studied, and give typical examples in the paper. It can describe the lightning withstanding ability much more scientifically and provide important references for the manage department of power system.

Snowstorm caused chaos but risk free to power grid

From January 1 to 3,2010, the heaviest snow for decades in North China caused widespread chaos in traffic and people's livelihood, but there was no risk to power grid.

A Study on Quantitative Methodology to Assess Cyber Security Risk of Smart Grid

This paper aims to identify and clarify the cyber security risks and their interaction with the power system in Smart Grid. The SCADA system and other communication networks interact with the power system on a real time basis, so it is important to understand the interaction between two layers to protect the power system from potential cyber threats. This paper has shown the risks of the open architecture SCADA in a quantitative method and proposed effective security measures through case studies.

Risk of Tropical Cyclones and Floods to Power Grids in Southeast and East Asia

Power grids play a critical role in modern society,serving as the lifeline of a well-functioning economy.This article presents a frst large-scale study on the risk estimation of tropical cyclone(TC)-induced winds and coastal foods,which can widely impact power grids in Southeast and East Asia.Our comprehensive risk model incorporates detailed infrastructure data from OpenStreetMap(OSM)and government power grid maps,along with global hazard maps and vulnerability curves.The results reveal that the estimated expected annual damages from TCs and coastal foods to OSM-mapped assets account for approximately 0.07%(0.00-0.38%)and 0.02%(0.00-0.02%)of the total GDP of the study area,respectively.We analyzed the main sources of uncertainty in the risk model and emphasized the importance of understanding asset vulnerability.These results highlight the urgent need to strengthen power infrastructure to withstand the impacts of natural hazards,and the signifcance of reliable risk information for improving power grid design and planning.Focusing on developing more region-specifc infrastructure data and vulnerability curves will improve the accuracy of risk estimation and provide valuable insights not only for the electricity sector but also for customers of other infrastructure systems that heavily rely on a stable supply of electricity.

Development and Application of Lightning Protection Technologies in Power Grids of China

In recent years,along with the rapid expansion of power grids,the increasing complication of grid structures,and the development of smart grids and energy technologies,the lightning protection of power grids becomes increasingly prominent.Power grids of China have acquired significant achievements on lightning protection technologies,which are reviewed in this paper.A technical route of lightning protection is introduced in detail; it allows us to find problems through detection and measurement of lightning,to analyze problems through evaluation and simulation of lightning,to solve problems through lightning protection measures,and to prevent problems through hazard risk warning of lightning.Following the route,the technical breakthroughs of these four aspects in China are presented,including the chinese lightning detection network(CLDN),natural lightning observations,lightning faults detection at transmission lines,lightning current measurements,progresses in lightning distribution maps,lightning fault replays,lightning hazard risk evaluations,and lightning simulated experiments,as well as novel lightning protection measures.The practical devices and systems corresponding to the technologies mentioned above are also introduced and discussed.Due to the progress of lightning protection technologies in recent years,despite the rapidly growing length of transmission lines in China,the lightning accident rate is controlled at a certain level.

新型电力系统下的电网安全挑战与对策研究

新型电力系统的发展给电网安全带来了一系列挑战,包括自然灾难、设备故障、电网管理、恶意破坏等传统风险,以及大规模可再生能源接入和信息技术快速发展等新兴安全问题。文章梳理了国外电力系统及我国新型电力系统的发展特征和形势,研判了新型电力系统下的电网安全风险和挑战,并从预测预警预判技术、极端气候对电网的影响、网络信息安全、风险管理标准4个方面梳理了全球应对电网安全的措施。在此基础上,提出加强电网前瞻性规划部署、提升电网资源配置效率和整体韧性、推动先进技术研发和应用、完善风险管理措施等应对建议,期望为我国电网提高电力供给能力、安全稳定性、韧性提供参考依据。

计及备用风险性的新型电力系统源网协同安全经济调度

为合理利用源侧备用资源,提出基于随机潮流和半不变量法的备用风险评估指标,以准确量化因备用不足而造成的潮流越限风险;为了实现源侧备用资源和网侧可控资源的协同优化,将网侧有载调压变压器和电容器组无功补偿装置纳入决策变量,以系统运行成本最低和系统运行越限风险指标值最小为优化目标,构建计及备用风险性的新型电力系统源网协同安全经济调度模型;将布朗运动和莱维飞行随机游走机制融入多目标微分进化算法,设计新型的布朗-莱维多目标微分进化算法,对模型进行高效求解。算例分析结果验证了所提方法的有效性和优越性。

基于XGBoost的电网物资供应商履约风险预测

电网物资供应商履约质量是电网安全稳定运行的基础,供应商履约涉及环节众多且风险因素复杂,使得当前对其研究较为匮乏且大多停留在理论业务分析层面。针对这一问题,提出基于XGBoost(Extreme Gradient Boosting)的供应商履约风险预测模型,充分考虑业务全流程中的各种风险因素,综合内部供应链运行、知识图谱数据以及外部天眼查、疫情等数据,基于特征工程构造了191个风险特征进行初始训练,在模型优化后对筛选出的49个特征再次训练,兼顾实际业务中的预测准确性和特征可解释性要求,采用SHAP(SHapley Additive exPlanations)值方法进行模型解释。实验结果表明,对比其他3种主流机器学习算法,所提模型准确率、精确率、KS值分别高达93.05%,94.45%,45.38%,进而验证了XGBoost算法在履约风险预测中的可行性和优越性。该模型可应用到电网物资供应链中,进一步指导业务应用。

电网物资供应商分级管理策略及实践应用研究

随着现代化社会的快速发展以及经济的突飞猛进,电力供应对广大群众的生活有着直接影响,因此加强对电网物资供应商分级管理至关重要。本文首先论述了加强电网物资供应商分级管理的重要性,然后分析了电网物资供应商分级管理的重要步骤,最后多维度提出了加强电网物资供应商分级管理的对策,旨在提升电网物资供应商分级管理的整体质量,以期为电网物资的供应保驾护航,助力我国电网行业的健康可持续发展。

基于Logistic回归的韧性城市电网信息物理融合系统风险源辨识

针对韧性城市电网信息物理融合系统风险源的系统性量化问题,提出基于Logistic回归的风险源辨识模型。通过分析韧性城市电网信息物理融合系统风险产生位置,从物理层、信息层、耦合层和外部环境4个方面选取潜在风险源。根据风险源和风险事件的映射关系,借助Logistic回归分析对风险源进行筛选,构建韧性城市电网信息物理融合系统风险源体系,得出对风险事件有显著影响的主要风险源。

电力调度系统安全风险与防范研究

随着我国电力体制改革的不断深化,电力调度系统的安全问题已成为影响电力企业运行的关键因素。电力调度系统安全风险与防范研究是为了进一步加强对电力调度系统安全问题的研究,同时为保障电网运行的安全与稳定提供一定参考。主要针对电力调度系统存在的风险进行了探讨,并在此基础上提出了防范电力调度系统安全风险的措施。

电价改革形势下电网企业代理购电风险分析及应对策略研究

为改变电力短缺的现状,继续全面深入推进电价市场化改革,电网企业逐步进行用电侧改革,积极组织开展代理购电业务。在调研电力代理购电业务相关政策规则的基础上,分析了代理购电业务关键信息以及业务开展过程中可能遇到的不确定因素,对代理购电业务全流程风险进行识别;设计了电网企业代理购电业务全流程风险指标体系,构建了代理购电业务风险综合评估模型,实现全方位的风险感知与评估;最后,提出了电网企业应对风险的策略,以期为电网企业代理购电业务的开展提供理论指导。

基于危险理论的数字电网网络安全风险预警研究

当前数字电网安全风险预警方法存在一定局限性,如风险预警正确率低、耗时长等应用缺陷。为此,设计基于危险理论的数字电网网络安全风险预警方法。分析影响数字电网网络安全风险因素,引入危险理论中的人工免疫机制得到抗原信息集,并采用隐马尔可夫链法计算数字电网网络安全风险值,将风险值与预警标准值进行比较实现电网网络安全风险预警。实验测试结果表明:所提方法可以准确预警电网网络风险,提高了数字电网网络安全性,且预警误报率较低,应用性能较为理想。

考虑负荷潮流和运行方式的电网风险周期性实时监测方法

为了保证电网对故障处理的实时性和可靠性,降低电网运行风险,考虑负荷潮流和运行方式,提出电网风险周期性实时监测方法。通过数据接入层获取电网运行的相关数据后,由数据处理层清洗该数据并分类存储;业务层基于电网负荷潮流计算估计电网线路运行动态情况,同时聚类负荷潮流数据并采用改进的特征权重算法提取潮流数据特征,分析各个负荷潮流特征和每个故障类别之间的关联程度;应用层考虑负荷潮流和运行方式量化电网故障风险,采用平均互信息测量完成电网风险预警,实现电网全面监测。测试结果显示这种方法能够可靠完成电网负荷潮流计算,轮廓系数取值均在0.92以上,紧密性的取值均低于2.5,负荷潮流数据聚类效果良好,能够依据负荷潮流计算线路的风险概率,最高值为0.68,依据该结果实时风险预警。

基于改进自适应粒子群优化的高压设备检修计划自适应优化

为了保证电网在高压设备检修过程中的稳定运行,提出基于改进自适应粒子群优化算法的高压设备检修计划自适应优化方法。采用模糊推理规则算法评估高压设备运行状态,依据评估结果确定电网运行风险最小化为高压设备检修优化的目标函数,并确定同时约束、检修资源约束等5个约束条件,采用改进自适应粒子群优化求解目标函数,输出优化后的高压设备检修计划结果。测试结果显示,该方法检修时电压最大和最小结果之间的差距为0.105 pu,较为平稳。

基于“先降后控”原则的风险管控机制新实践

分析风险管控对电力安全生产的影响,明确风险管控总体思路,制定风险辨识、风险压降、风险管控、经验固化四个方面的关键举措,并从电网风险和作业风险管理两个维度进行探索和实践,形成贴合实际、切实有效的经验做法。

配网供电风险分析应用设计与实践

针对配网大规模、多线路等自身网络特点和新型电力系统下高分布式电源接入比例导致的配网随机性、复杂性增强的现状,在总结了国内外相关研究的基础上,设计开发了一种新型电力系统下的配网供电风险分析应用。应用设计包括了电网运行方式风险、失电风险和越限风险分析的功能模块设计,以及接口服务设计和用户界面设计。在具体的风险分析算法方面,提出了电网运行薄弱点的识别方法、电网风险评级库、电网风险持续时间判定方法等算法原理。基于上述应用的架构和算法设计,开发了配网供电风险分析应用,该应用在雄安、石家庄进行了现场示范应用,证明了应用的技术手段和设计思路具有可行性和实用价值。

电网建设安全风险预警预测技术研究

近年来,国家电网公司的电网规模不断扩大,每年在建工程数量超过6000项,施工高峰期有近10万人同时作业,每年开展三级及以上风险的项目达10.8万余项。由于施工现场数量多且涉及面广,繁重的电网建设任务对安全管理工作提出了新的挑战。如何对施工现场中人员的不安全行为、物资的不安全状态、环境的不安全条件及管理的缺陷进行及时有效地预警预测,将“查找问题”转变为“预防风险”,真正实现“检查一个工程,确保一个工程的安全”的需求已变得愈发紧迫。