Rolling Decision Model of Thermal Power Retrofit and Generation Expansion Planning Considering Carbon Emissions and Power Balance Risk

With the increasing urgency of the carbon emission reduction task,the generation expansion planning process needs to add carbon emission risk constraints,in addition to considering the level of power adequacy.However,methods for quantifying and assessing carbon emissions and operational risks are lacking.It results in excessive carbon emissions and frequent load-shedding on some days,although meeting annual carbon emission reduction targets.First,in response to the above problems,carbon emission and power balance risk assessment indicators and assessment methods,were proposed to quantify electricity abundance and carbon emission risk level of power planning scenarios,considering power supply regulation and renewable energy fluctuation characteristics.Secondly,building on traditional two-tier models for low-carbon power planning,including investment decisions and operational simulations,considering carbon emissions and power balance risks in lower-tier operational simulations,a two-tier rolling model for thermal power retrofit and generation expansion planning was established.The model includes an investment tier and operation assessment tier and makes year-by-year decisions on the number of thermal power units to be retrofitted and the type and capacity of units to be commissioned.Finally,the rationality and validity of the model were verified through an example analysis,a small-scale power supply system in a certain region is taken as an example.The model can significantly reduce the number of days of carbon emissions risk and ensure that the power balance risk is within the safe limit.

Conceptual Strategy for Mitigating the Risk of Hydrogen as an Internal Hazard in Case of Severe Accidents at Nuclear Power Plant Considering Existing Risks and Uncertainties Associated with the Use of Traditional Strategies

Hydrogen challenge mitigation stands as one of the main objectives in the management of severe accidents at Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs). Key strategies for hydrogen control include atmospheric inertization and hydrogen removal with Passive Autocatalytic Recombiners (PARs) being a commonly accepted approach. However, an examination of PAR operation specificity reveals potential inefficiencies and reliability issues in certain severe accident scenarios. Moreover, during the in-vessel stage of severe accident development, in some severe accident scenarios PARs can unexpectedly become a source of hydrogen detonation. The effectiveness of hydrogen removal systems depends on various factors, including the chosen strategies, severe accident scenarios, reactor building design, and other influencing factors. Consequently, a comprehensive hydrogen mitigation strategy must effectively incorporate a combination of strategies rather than be based on one strategy, taking into consideration the probabilistic risks and uncertainties associated with the implementation of PARs or other traditional methods. In response to these considerations, within the framework of this research it has been suggested a conceptual strategy to mitigate the hydrogen challenge during the in-vessel stage of severe accident development.

Differentiation degree combination weighting method for investment decision-making risk assessment in power grid construction projects

Power grid construction projects are distinguished by their wide variety,high investment,long payback period,and close relation to national development and human welfare.To improve the investment accuracy in such projects and effectively prevent investment risks,this paper proposes an investment optimization decision-making method for multiple power grid construction projects under a certain investment scale.Firstly,an in-depth analysis of the characteristics and development requirements of China’s power grid projects was performed.Thereafter,the time sequence and holographic method was adopted to conduct multi-dimensional,multi-perspective risk assessment of different parts of power grid projects,and a holographic risk assessment index system was developed.Moreover,an investment decision model considering the comprehensive risk based on combination weighting was developed according to the output and input of power grid construction projects.A new combination weighting optimization method that takes into account the investment willingness of enterprises was designed to improve the current weighting evaluation methods.Finally,the validity and applicability of the proposed evaluation method were verified by case examples.

Application of fuzzy analytic hierarchy process and neural network in power transformer risk assessment

In operation,risk arising from power transformer faults is of much uncertainty and complicacy.To timely and objectively control the risks,a transformer risk assessment method based on fuzzy analytic hierarchy process(FAHP) and artificial neural network(ANN) from the perspective of accuracy and quickness is proposed.An analytic hierarchy process model for the transformer risk assessment is built by analysis of the risk factors affecting the transformer risk level and the weight relation of each risk factor in transformer risk calculation is analyzed by application of fuzzy consistency judgment matrix;with utilization of adaptive ability and nonlinear mapping ability of the ANN,the risk factors with large weights are used as input of neutral network,and thus intelligent quantitative assessment of transformer risk is realized.The simulation result shows that the proposed method increases the speed and accuracy of the risk assessment and can provide feasible decision basis for the transformer risk management and maintenance decisions.

Investment risk analysis of China's wind power industry based on pre-assessment matrix

Wind energy is a clean and sustainable energy,and wind power does not rely on fossil fuels.So there is no fuel price risk,and it,of course,does not include the environmental costs,such as carbon emissions.Because of these unique advantages,wind power has gradually become an important part of the strategy of sustainable development in China.Now with the growing voices on global greenhouse gas emission reduction,and as a clean and efficient energy, wind power has huge potential in combating climate change,energy security pressures and the needs for energy.Wind power in China began to develop from the 1980s.In the first 20 years,the speed of development was slow;but since 2004,it has had an extremely rapid growth.This paper,in order to study the development mechanism of China's wind power industry,investigated and analyzed the status quo of wind power industry in China,and then found that(1) the development trend of wind power industry in China appears exponential growth;(2)China's installed capacity of wind power is still smaller than that os some other countries;(3)new subsidy policies bring developing opportunities to wind power industry in China;(4)the sectors of wind power industry are in unbalanced growing;(5)the owners of proposed wind farms are too optimistic though the built wind farm had many problems.In addition,by using the methodology of Game Theory,this paper has also constructed the matrix of pre-assessing risks of China's wind power industry to further discuss the potential risk factors within China's wind power industry as risk factors of wind farm construction,risk factors of production of wind turbines,risk factors of parts and components manufacturing industry under risk indicators like R&D,patents,the domestic policy,the international policy,the quality of products and the market regulation,in order to provide a scientific assessment and self-assessment tool for investors or implementers, and also to promote the further development of the wind power industry.

Snowstorm caused chaos but risk free to power grid

From January 1 to 3,2010, the heaviest snow for decades in North China caused widespread chaos in traffic and people's livelihood, but there was no risk to power grid.

Study of Lightning Damage Risk Assessment Method for Power Grid

Based on the idea of risk evaluation, the existing lightning damage risk assessment methods are reviewed and summarized in this paper. And the power grid lightning damage risk assessment system is established on the basis of lightning flashover risk evaluation methodology for transmission lines, and adopts the improved Analytic Hierarchy Process as the core algorithm. It can comprehensively evaluate the risk for transmission lines of regional grid, various sections of a line and each tower of the section, considering much more impact factors, including the running time of line, importance of grades, equipment damage, and the success rate of lightning stroke reclosing and so on. According to the calculation results of the risk assessment of the analytic hierarchy process and lightning flashover risk evaluation, the principles and methods of grade classification for power grid lightning damage risk map are studied, and give typical examples in the paper. It can describe the lightning withstanding ability much more scientifically and provide important references for the manage department of power system.

Fuzzy Risk Assessment Model of Power Transformer Based on Borda Number Theory

The power transformer is the key equipment of transforming voltage and exchanging power in the power system.It's safe and reliable operation directly influences the safe level of the power system.To study the risk assessment of power transformer which is very significant to improve the reliability of the power system,a fuzzy comprehensive risk assessment model of power transformer based on Borda number theory is proposed in this paper.At first,the fault types and risk factors of the power transformer are analyzed.Secondly,the basic framework of the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is applied to quantify the risk factors.And then,Borda number theory is employed to analyze influence degree and occurrence probability of power transformer.At last,the various risk factors impact index and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation index of power transformer can be easily obtained.Applying this model,the relative importance degree of the risk factors can be horizontally compared according to the numerical index,the engineering staff can directly get the parameters of the transformer risk level and get a good description of the visual expression through using 5 score and similar visual language.

Optimal Portfolio Selection of Wind Power Plants Using a Stochastic Risk-Averse Optimization Model, Considering the Wind Complementarity of the Sites and a Budget Constraint

This work focuses on the best financial resources allocation to define a wind power plant portfolio, considering a set of feasible sites. To accomplish the problem formulation and solution, the first step was to establish a long-term wind series reconstruction methodology for generating scenarios of wind energy, applying it to study five different locations of the Brazilian territory. Secondly, a risk-averse stochastic optimization model was implemented and used to define the optimal wind power plant selection that maximizes the portfolio financial results, considering an investment budget constraint. In a sequence, a case study was developed to illustrate a practical situation of applying the methodology to the portfolio selection problem, considering five wind power plants options. The case study was supported by the proposed optimization model, using the scenarios of generation created by the reconstruction methodology. The obtained results show the model performance in terms of defining the best financial resources allocation considering the effect of the complementarity between sites, making it feasible to select the optimal set of wind power plants, characterizing a wind plant optimal portfolio that takes into account the budget constraint. The adopted methodology makes it possible to realize that the diversification of the portfolio depends on the investor risk aversion. Although applied to the Brazilian case, this model can be customized to solve a similar problem worldwide.

Risk Allocation and Mitigation in Nigeria’s Privatisation Programme—A Case Study of Electric Power Sector Privatisation

Under the Nigerian privatisation programme, the issues of risk allocation and mitigation were never always properly handled. Historically, there had always been a tendency to dump all the project risks on the private sector partner without properly evaluating whether it was capable of managing them. Extant literature has shown that where the comparative advantages of parties to handle risks are not properly taken into consideration, the allocation of risk is unbalanced and the tendency for the project to run into difficulties and/or fail increases. This paper looks at the electric power sector privatisation, distilling how key project risks were handled under the exercise. This should be a good pointer as to whether the privatisation exercise would be a success in the long run.

Risk Control of Transmission Line Overload for Wind-Integrated Power Systems

With the rapid development of the wind generation,uncertainties of random wind and load bring some inevitable impacts on the security of power system. Once the uncertainty causes line power to exceed its limit, line overload will occur. The paper presents the risk control of transmission line overload for windintegrated power systems. Firstly, a risk control model of line overload is proposed considering the uncertainties of loads,generator outputs and wind powers. The generation cost and security level of system associated with overload can be optimally controlled. Then path following interior point method is employed to carry out the optimal control. Finally the simulation is made on the modified IEEE-30 bus system. Results show that the risk of line overload is effectively reduced through the optimization of control variables.

基于条件风险价值的虚拟电厂参与能量及备用市场的双层随机优化

为充分发挥虚拟电厂的灵活性价值,提出了虚拟电厂参与电能量及备用辅助服务市场的双层随机优化模型。上层基于条件风险价值理论建立了虚拟电厂参与电能量及备用辅助服务市场的两阶段风险决策模型,其中,第一阶段考虑新能源不确定性的潜在风险,建立了虚拟电厂参与能量和备用辅助服务市场的投标报价模型,第二阶段针对不同场景下的新能源出力建立了以虚拟电厂期望运行成本最小为目标的分布式资源优化调度模型;下层在已知各市场主体的投标报价信息后,开展电能量市场及备用辅助服务市场的联合出清。仿真分析表明,所提方法能够有效指导虚拟电厂规避新能源不确定性的潜在风险,并通过将备用价格提高到下一个边际机组的报价从而增加自身利润。

Comparison of Risk Assessment for a Nuclear Power Plant Construction Project Based on Analytic Hierarchy Process and Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process

Recently, plant construction throughout the world, including nuclear power plant construction, has grown significantly. The scale of Korea’s nuclear power plant construction in particular, has increased gradually since it won a contract for a nuclear power plant construction project in the United Arab Emirates in 2009. However, time and monetary resources have been lost in some nuclear power plant construction sites due to lack of risk management ability. The need to prevent losses at nuclear power plant construction sites has become more urgent because it demands professional skills and large-scale resources. Therefore, in this study, the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP) were applied in order to make comparisons between decision-making methods, to assess the potential risks at nuclear power plant construction sites. To suggest the appropriate choice between two decision-making methods, a survey was carried out. From the results, the importance and the priority of 24 risk factors, classified by process, cost, safety, and quality, were analyzed. The FAHP was identified as a suitable method for risk assessment of nuclear power plant construction, compared with risk assessment using the AHP. These risk factors will be able to serve as baseline data for risk management in nuclear power plant construction projects.

Risk Assessment Framework and Algorithm of Power Systems Based on the Partitioned Multi-objective Risk Method

针对平均风险指标无法区分高损失-低概率事件及低损失-高概率事件的缺点,提出了电力系统的分割多目标风险分析框架。该框架将电力系统的风险状态细分为低损失、中等损失和高损失3个风险范围,并提出3个损失范围条件风险函数和条件风险概率的概念。采用经典的容量停运表模型,建立了这些条件期望指标的计算方法。对IEEE-RTS及TH-RTS2000系统进行了分割多目标风险评估,研究不同负荷水平下系统风险在3个损失范围的分布及转移情况,并分析损失分割点对系统风险的影响。通过分割多目标风险分析,风险分析者和决策者可以权衡系统的平均风险以及高、中、低损失范围的条件期望风险,从而对系统的风险状况有一个全面和深入的了解。

“媒介自延伸”:人机交互中知识权力话语模式变迁及潜在风险

以ChatGPT4.0为代表的生成式人工智能技术,不仅打破千百年来人类的话语主体地位,更冲出以人为本的“媒介即延伸”发展轴线,转向以媒介自我能力延伸的“媒介自延伸”之轨,人类知识权力话语模式的主体、特征以及权力关系受到巨大冲击。在梳理人类历史进程中不同媒介时代权力话语模式变迁基础上,采用扎根理论研究方法,对当下生成式人工智能引发的人机交互权力话语模式与特征进行分析,发现算法规制下的智能话语或将人类话语引入范式化与平庸化,造成机器知识内容权力宣示、庸语驱逐俗语以及情感话语蛊惑方面的潜在风险,需从个体“算法启蒙”及社会规制层面采取必要举措并进行反思。

党组织嵌入公司治理对高管—员工薪酬差距的影响研究

收入分配制度的合理性是保障社会公平与正义的关键。然而,随着高管薪酬对企业绩效的作用逐渐凸显,高管薪酬不断提高致使高管“天价薪酬”成为普遍现象,引起理论界和实务界的广泛关注。基于我国特殊的公司治理制度,以2010-2021年我国沪深A股上市公司为研究样本对党组织嵌入公司治理是否影响以及如何影响高管—员工薪酬差距进行研究,发现党组织融嵌公司治理有助于抑制高管—员工薪酬差距,而且党组织融嵌程度越高,对高管—员工薪酬差距的抑制作用越强;此外,这种抑制作用对国有企业、董事长或总经理无政治关联、市场化程度低的企业更显著;进一步分析发现,党组织嵌入公司治理可以通过抑制管理层权力的扩大和降低企业风险进而抑制高管—员工薪酬差距。从中国特色的党组织嵌入公司治理视角探讨高管—员工薪酬差距的影响因素以及作用机制,对于丰富薪酬差距影响因素研究和党组织嵌入公司治理效应研究方面的文献,加强党组织建设、全面促进党组织建设与公司治理结构的有机结合、优化收入分配制度改革具有借鉴意义。

集团内部权力配置与企业债务违约风险——基于权力细分视角

文章以2007-2021年我国A股上市集团企业为研究对象,基于权力细分视角,分析财权、经营权及人事权配置对企业债务违约风险的影响。实证结果表明,集团内部财权、经营权集中配置及人事权分散配置通过内部资本市场资源配置和发挥治理效应能够降低企业的债务违约风险。进一步研究发现,财权集中与人事权分散配置、经营权集中与人事权分散配置、财权和经营权集中与人事权分散配置协同,能够降低企业债务违约风险。价值效应考察发现,财权、经营权集中配置及人事权分散配置对企业债务违约风险的抑制效应能够提升企业价值。集团化企业应重视并探索权力集中配置的治理优势,优化组织结构,进而提升企业价值。

乡村振兴战略下中国农业收入保险创新发展研究

在乡村振兴战略和粮食安全战略背景下,为深化农业供给侧结构性改革赋能我国“三农”产业结构升级,亟待加快构建农业收入保险制度体系,以实现农业强国目标。本文探讨了乡村振兴战略下创新发展我国农业收入保险的紧迫性和必要性,分析了我国农业收入保险试点中遇到的困难和不足,并借鉴美国、日本两国农业收入保险的制度安排和经营管理经验,提出了乡村振兴战略下创新发展中国农业收入保险的政策建议。