Precipitation-runoff simulation for a Himalayan River Basin, India using artificial neural network algorithms

In the Himalayan regions, precipitation-runoff relationships are amongst the most complex hydrological phenomena, due to varying topography and basin characteristics. In this study, different artificial neural networks （ANNs） algorithms were used to simulate daily nmoff at three discharge measuring sites in the Himalayan Kosi River Basin, India, using various combinations of precipitation-runoff data as input variables. The data used for this study was collected for the monsoon period （June to Oc- tober） during the years of 2005 to 2009. ANNs were trained using different training algorithms, leaming rates, length of data and number of hidden neurons. A comprehensive multi-criteria validation test for precipitation-runoff modeling has been un- dertaken to evaluate model performance and test its validity for generating scenarios. Global statistics have demonstrated that the multilayer perceptron with three hidden layers （MLP-3） is the best ANN for basin comparisons with other MLP networks and Radial Basis Functions （RBF）. Furthermore, non-parametric tests also illustrate that the MLP-3 network is the best net- work to reproduce the mean and variance of observed runoff. The performance of ANNs was demonstrated for flows during the monsoon season, having different soil moisture conditions during period from June to October.

Runoff variation and its response to climate change in Huolin River catchment,Northeast China

The Huolin River catchment(HRC)is located in the semi-arid region of Northeast China,which is very sensitive to climate change.The runoff in HRC is closely related to the recovery of local vegetation in the Greater Khingan Mountains and the survival of downstream wetlands.Dramatic runoff fluctuations and increasing no-flow days confirmed the water crisis in this area.Hence,it is extremely urgent to study the current situation and characteristics of runoff.In this study,hydrological and meteorological data of HRC during 1956-2018 were analyzed to elucidate the processes,characteristics,trends of the river runoff and revealed its response to climate change.The Mann-Kendall test and linear regression method showed that runoff in the HRC demonstrated a downward trend over the study period with a marked annual variation.The runoff in the high flow years was 100 times that of the low flow years,showing a typical continental climatic river characteristic.There are two runoff peak flows in the intra-annual runoff distribution in March and July,whereas two runoff valleys occurred around May and September to February.The runoff positively correlates with precipitation in summer and temperature in early spring.Snowmelt influenced by rising temperatures in April and precipitation in July is the main driving factor for the two peaks flow.Evaporation rose with precipitation decline and temperature increased,which may influence the runoff decrease.The annual runoff is well synchronized with the annual precipitation,and precipitation change is the main driving factor of variation and abrupt change points of annual runoff in the catchment.This study would be beneficial for water resource management in developing adaptation strategies to offset the negative impact of climate change in HRC.

Topographic controls on the annual runoff coefficient and implications for landscape evolution across semiarid Qilian Mountains, NE Tibetan Plateau

The combination of different topographic and climatic conditions results in varied precipitation-runoff relations, which in turn influences hillslope erosion, sediment transport and bedrock incision across mountainous landscapes. The runoff coefficient is a suitable tool to represent precipitation-runoff relations, but the spatial distribution of the runoff coefficient across tectonically active mountains in semi-arid environments has received little attention because of limited data availability. We calculated annual runoff coefficients over 22 years for 26 drainage basins across the semi-arid Qilian Mountains based on:(i) annual discharge records;and(ii) the China Meteorological Forcing Dataset to enhance our understanding of the precipitation-runoff processes. The mean annual runoff coefficients show no obvious spatial trends. When compared to potential controlling factors, mean annual runoff coefficients are highly correlated with mean slope rather than any climatic characteristics(e.g., mean annualprecipitation and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index). The slope-dependent runoff coefficient could theoretically have enhanced the topographic control on erosion rates and dampen the influence of precipitation. The enhanced discharge for drainage basins with less precipitation but steep topography in the western Qilian Mountains will enable fluvial incision to keep pace with ongoing uplift caused by the northward growth of the Qilian Mountains. The geomorphic implications are that tectonic rather than climatic factors are more significant for long-term landscape evolution in arid and semi-arid contexts.

The Impacts of Climate Change on the Availability of Surface Water Resources in Jordan

Climate change in the Middle East area including Jordan has started to be reflected in decreasing precipitation and increasing temperatures with their impacts on the availability of surface and groundwater. This article aims to evaluate the impacts of decreasing or increasing precipitation by 10% and 20% on the quantities of flood runoff based on recorded precipitation and runoffs of catchments during the past 60 to 70 years of observation, during which the precipitation in individual or a few years increased or decreased by tens of percentages relative to the long-term average precipitation. The results of quantification show that in Jordan as a whole, decreasing precipitation by 10% and 20% has historically (during the recording period) resulted in reductions in flood flows by 26.2% and 52.8% and that increasing precipitation by 10% and 20% has resulted in increases in flood flows by 26.4% and 56.5% respectively. These results look somehow paradox, because the general perception is that flood runoff changes in the same percentage like precipitation although flood flow is not linearly correlated with precipitation but exponentially. Decreasing precipitation in the water-scarce stressed country, Jordan due to climatic changes, will have strong implications on rain-fed and irrigated agriculture and on household water supplies with very severe socio-economic percussions expressed in increasing unemployment and poverty which may lead to social and political unrest. Therefore, proactive measures have to be implemented before disasters hit. Such measures are limited in Jordan to seawater desalination, intensified water harvesting and improved water use efficiency in agriculture.

Differential changes in precipitation and runoff discharge during 1958–2017 in the headwater region of Yellow River of China

Maintenance of steady streamflow is a critical attribute of the continental river systems for safeguarding downstream ecosystems and agricultural production.Global climate change imposes a potential risk to water supply from the headwater by changing the magnitude and frequency of precipitation and evapotranspiration in the region.To determine if and to what extent the recent climate changes affected streamflow in major river systems,we examined the pattern of temporal variations in precipitation,temperature,evapotranspiration and changes in runoff discharge during 1958–2017 in the headwater region of the Yellow River in northeastern Tibetan Plateau.We identified 1989 as the turning point for a statistically significant 14% reduction in streamflow discharge(P < 0.05) for the period 1989–2017 compared with 1958–1988,approximately coinciding with changes in the monthly distribution but not the interannual variations of precipitation,and detected a mismatch between precipitation and runoff after 2000.Both annual precipitation and runoff discharge displayed fourand eight-year cyclic patterns of changes for the period 1958–1988,and a six-year cyclic pattern of changes for the period 1989–2017,with two intensified two-year cyclic patterns in the changes of precipitation and a three-year cyclic pattern in the change of runoff further detected for the later period.Our results indicate that the temporal changes in runoff are not strictly consistent with the temporal variations of precipitation in the headwater region of Yellow River during the period 1958–2017.In particular,a full recovery in annual precipitation was not reflected in a full recovery in runoff toward the end of the study period.While a review of literature yielded no apparent evidence of raised evapotranspiration in the region due to recent warming,we draw attention to increased local retention of rainwater as a possible explanation of differential changes in precipitation and runoff.