Robust estimation of time-dependent precision matrix with application to the cryptocurrency market

Most financial signals show time dependency that,combined with noisy and extreme events,poses serious problems in the parameter estimations of statistical models.Moreover,when addressing asset pricing,portfolio selection,and investment strategies,accurate estimates of the relationship among assets are as necessary as are delicate in a time-dependent context.In this regard,fundamental tools that increasingly attract research interests are precision matrix and graphical models,which are able to obtain insights into the joint evolution of financial quantities.In this paper,we present a robust divergence estimator for a time-varying precision matrix that can manage both the extreme events and time-dependency that affect financial time series.Furthermore,we provide an algorithm to handle parameter estimations that uses the“maximization–minimization”approach.We apply the methodology to synthetic data to test its performances.Then,we consider the cryptocurrency market as a real data application,given its remarkable suitability for the proposed method because of its volatile and unregulated nature.

Efficient Distributed Estimation of High-dimensional Sparse Precision Matrix for Transelliptical Graphical Models

In this paper,distributed estimation of high-dimensional sparse precision matrix is proposed based on the debiased D-trace loss penalized lasso and the hard threshold method when samples are distributed into different machines for transelliptical graphical models.At a certain level of sparseness,this method not only achieves the correct selection of non-zero elements of sparse precision matrix,but the error rate can be comparable to the estimator in a non-distributed setting.The numerical results further prove that the proposed distributed method is more effective than the usual average method.

A GREEDY ALGORITHM FOR SPARSE PRECISION MATRIX APPROXIMATION

Precision matrix estimation is an important problem in statistical data analysis.This paper proposes a sparse precision matrix estimation approach,based on CLIME estimator and an efficient algorithm GISSP that was originally proposed for li sparse signal recovery in compressed sensing.The asymptotic convergence rate for sparse precision matrix estimation is analyzed with respect to the new stopping criteria of the proposed GISSP algorithm.Finally,numerical comparison of GISSP with other sparse recovery algorithms,such as ADMM and HTP in three settings of precision matrix estimation is provided and the numerical results show the advantages of the proposed algorithm.

Bayesian Lasso with Neighborhood Regression Method for Gaussian Graphical Model

In this paper, we consider the problem of estimating a high dimensional precision matrix of Gaussian graphical model. Taking advantage of the connection between multivariate linear regression and entries of the precision matrix, we propose Bayesian Lasso together with neighborhood regression estimate for Gaussian graphical model. This method can obtain parameter estimation and model selection simultaneously. Moreover,the proposed method can provide symmetric confidence intervals of all entries of the precision matrix.