Development of a new Cox model for predicting long-term survival in hepatitis cirrhosis patients underwent transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunts

BACKGROUND Transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt(TIPS)placement is a procedure that can effectively treat complications of portal hypertension,such as variceal bleeding and refractory ascites.However,there have been no specific studies on predicting long-term survival after TIPS placement.AIM To establish a model to predict long-term survival in patients with hepatitis cirrhosis after TIPS.METHODS A retrospective analysis was conducted on a cohort of 224 patients who un-derwent TIPS implantation.Through univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses,various factors were examined for their ability to predict survival at 6 years after TIPS.Consequently,a composite score was formulated,encompassing the indication,shunt reasonability,portal venous pressure gradient(PPG)after TIPS,percentage decrease in portal venous pressure(PVP),indocyanine green retention rate at 15 min(ICGR15)and total bilirubin(Tbil)level.Furthermore,the performance of the newly developed Cox(NDC)model was evaluated in an in-ternal validation cohort and compared with that of a series of existing models.RESULTS The indication(variceal bleeding or ascites),shunt reasonability(reasonable or unreasonable),ICGR15,post-operative PPG,percentage of PVP decrease and Tbil were found to be independent factors affecting long-term survival after TIPS placement.The NDC model incorporated these parameters and successfully identified patients at high risk,exhibiting a notably elevated mortality rate following the TIPS procedure,as observed in both the training and validation cohorts.Additionally,in terms of predicting the long-term survival rate,the performance of the NDC model was significantly better than that of the other four models[Child-Pugh,model for end-stage liver disease(MELD),MELD-sodium and the Freiburg index of post-TIPS survival].CONCLUSION The NDC model can accurately predict long-term survival after the TIPS procedure in patients with hepatitis cirrhosis,help identify high-risk patients and guide follow-up management after TIPS implantation.

Predicting hepatocellular carcinoma: A new non-invasive model based on shear wave elastography

BACKGROUND Integrating conventional ultrasound features with 2D shear wave elastography(2D-SWE)can potentially enhance preoperative hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC)predictions.AIM To develop a 2D-SWE-based predictive model for preoperative identification of HCC.METHODS A retrospective analysis of 884 patients who underwent liver resection and pathology evaluation from February 2021 to August 2023 was conducted at the Oriental Hepatobiliary Surgery Hospital.The patients were divided into the modeling group(n=720)and the control group(n=164).The study included conventional ultrasound,2D-SWE,and preoperative laboratory tests.Multiple logistic regression was used to identify independent predictive factors for RESULTS In the modeling group analysis,maximal elasticity(Emax)of tumors and their peripheries,platelet count,cirrhosis,and blood flow were independent risk indicators for malignancies.These factors yielded an area under the curve of 0.77(95%confidence interval:0.73-0.81)with 84%sensitivity and 61%specificity.The model demonstrated good calibration in both the construction and validation cohorts,as shown by the calibration graph and Hosmer-Lemeshow test(P=0.683 and P=0.658,respectively).Additionally,the mean elasticity(Emean)of the tumor periphery was identified as a risk factor for microvascular invasion(MVI)in malignant liver tumors(P=0.003).Patients receiving antiviral treatment differed significantly in platelet count(P=0.002),Emax of tumors(P=0.033),Emean of tumors(P=0.042),Emax at tumor periphery(P<0.001),and Emean at tumor periphery(P=0.003).CONCLUSION 2D-SWE’s hardness value serves as a valuable marker for enhancing the preoperative diagnosis of malignant liver lesions,correlating significantly with MVI and antiviral treatment efficacy.

Superiority of a Convolutional Neural Network Model over Dynamical Models in Predicting Central Pacific ENSO

The application of deep learning is fast developing in climate prediction,in which El Ni?o–Southern Oscillation(ENSO),as the most dominant disaster-causing climate event,is a key target.Previous studies have shown that deep learning methods possess a certain level of superiority in predicting ENSO indices.The present study develops a deep learning model for predicting the spatial pattern of sea surface temperature anomalies(SSTAs)in the equatorial Pacific by training a convolutional neural network(CNN)model with historical simulations from CMIP6 models.Compared with dynamical models,the CNN model has higher skill in predicting the SSTAs in the equatorial western-central Pacific,but not in the eastern Pacific.The CNN model can successfully capture the small-scale precursors in the initial SSTAs for the development of central Pacific ENSO to distinguish the spatial mode up to a lead time of seven months.A fusion model combining the predictions of the CNN model and the dynamical models achieves higher skill than each of them for both central and eastern Pacific ENSO.

Computational Fluid Dynamics Approach for Predicting Pipeline Response to Various Blast Scenarios: A Numerical Modeling Study

Recent industrial explosions globally have intensified the focus in mechanical engineering on designing infras-tructure systems and networks capable of withstanding blast loading.Initially centered on high-profile facilities such as embassies and petrochemical plants,this concern now extends to a wider array of infrastructures and facilities.Engineers and scholars increasingly prioritize structural safety against explosions,particularly to prevent disproportionate collapse and damage to nearby structures.Urbanization has further amplified the reliance on oil and gas pipelines,making them vital for urban life and prime targets for terrorist activities.Consequently,there is a growing imperative for computational engineering solutions to tackle blast loading on pipelines and mitigate associated risks to avert disasters.In this study,an empty pipe model was successfully validated under contact blast conditions using Abaqus software,a powerful tool in mechanical engineering for simulating blast effects on buried pipelines.Employing a Eulerian-Lagrangian computational fluid dynamics approach,the investigation extended to above-surface and below-surface blasts at standoff distances of 25 and 50 mm.Material descriptions in the numerical model relied on Abaqus’default mechanical models.Comparative analysis revealed varying pipe performance,with deformation decreasing as explosion-to-pipe distance increased.The explosion’s location relative to the pipe surface notably influenced deformation levels,a key finding highlighted in the study.Moreover,quantitative findings indicated varying ratios of plastic dissipation energy(PDE)for different blast scenarios compared to the contact blast(P0).Specifically,P1(25 mm subsurface blast)and P2(50 mm subsurface blast)showed approximately 24.07%and 14.77%of P0’s PDE,respectively,while P3(25 mm above-surface blast)and P4(50 mm above-surface blast)exhibited lower PDE values,accounting for about 18.08%and 9.67%of P0’s PDE,respectively.Utilising energy-absorbing materials such as thin coatings of ultra-high-strength concrete,metallic foams,carbon fiber-reinforced polymer wraps,and others on the pipeline to effectively mitigate blast damage is recommended.This research contributes to the advancement of mechanical engineering by providing insights and solutions crucial for enhancing the resilience and safety of underground pipelines in the face of blast events.

Predicting the probability distribution of Martian rocks mechanical property based on microscale rock mechanical experiments and accurate grain-based modeling

The exploration of Mars would heavily rely on Martian rocks mechanics and engineering technology.As the mechanical property of Martian rocks is uncertain,it is of utmost importance to predict the probability distribution of Martian rocks mechanical property for the success of Mars exploration.In this paper,a fast and accurate probability distribution method for predicting the macroscale elastic modulus of Martian rocks was proposed by integrating the microscale rock mechanical experiments(micro-RME),accurate grain-based modeling(AGBM)and upscaling methods based on reliability principles.Firstly,the microstructure of NWA12564 Martian sample and elastic modulus of each mineral were obtained by micro-RME with TESCAN integrated mineral analyzer(TIMA)and nanoindentation.The best probability distribution function of the minerals was determined by Kolmogorov-Smirnov(K-S)test.Secondly,based on best distribution function of each mineral,the Monte Carlo simulations(MCS)and upscaling methods were implemented to obtain the probability distribution of upscaled elastic modulus.Thirdly,the correlation between the upscaled elastic modulus and macroscale elastic modulus obtained by AGBM was established.The accurate probability distribution of the macroscale elastic modulus was obtained by this correlation relationship.The proposed method can predict the probability distribution of Martian rocks mechanical property with any size and shape samples.

Construction and verification of a model for predicting fall risk in patients with maintenance hemodialysis

Objective:To construct a risk prediction model for fall in patients with maintenance hemodialysis(MHD)and to verify the prediction effect of the model.Methods:From June 2020 to December 2020,307 patients who underwent MHD in a tertiary hospital in Chengdu were divided into a fall group(32 cases)and a non-fall group(275 cases).Logistic regression analysis model was used to establish the influencing factors of the subjects.Hosmer–Lemeshow and receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve were used to test the goodness of fit and predictive effect of the model,and 104 patients were again included in the application research of the model.Results:The risk factors for fall were history of falls in the past year(OR=3.951),dialysis-related hypotension(OR=6.949),time up and go(TUG)test(OR=4.630),serum albumin(OR=0.661),frailty(OR=7.770),and fasting blood glucose(OR=1.141).Hosmer–Lemeshow test was P=0.475;the area under the ROC curve was 0.907;the Youden index was 0.642;the sensitivity was 0.843;and the specificity was 0.799.Conclusions:The risk prediction model constructed in this study has a good effect and can provide references for clinical screening of fall risks in patients with MHD.

Analytical model for predicting time-dependent lateral deformation of geosynthetics-reinforced soil walls with modular block facing

To date,few models are available in the literature to consider the creep behavior of geosynthetics when predicting the lateral deformation(d)of geosynthetics-reinforced soil(GRS)retaining walls.In this study,a general hyperbolic creep model was first introduced to describe the long-term deformation of geosynthetics,which is a function of elapsed time and two empirical parameters a and b.The conventional creep tests with three different tensile loads(Pr)were conducted on two uniaxial geogrids to determine their creep behavior,as well as the a-Pr and b-Pr relationships.The test results show that increasing Pr accelerates the development of creep deformation for both geogrids.Meanwhile,a and b respectively show exponential and negatively linear relationships with Pr,which were confirmed by abundant experimental data available in other studies.Based on the above creep model and relationships,an accurate and reliable analytical model was then proposed for predicting the time-dependent d of GRS walls with modular block facing,which was further validated using a relevant numerical investigation from the previous literature.Performance evaluation and comparison of the proposed model with six available prediction models were performed.Then a parametric study was carried out to evaluate the effects of wall height,vertical spacing of geogrids,unit weight and internal friction angle of backfills,and factor of safety against pullout on d at the end of construction and 5 years afterwards.The findings show that the creep effect not only promotes d but also raises the elevation of the maximum d along the wall height.Finally,the limitations and application prospects of the proposed model were discussed and analyzed.

An enhanced method for predicting and analysing forest fires using an attention-based CNN model

Prediction,prevention,and control of forest fires are crucial on at all scales.Developing effective fire detection systems can aid in their control.This study proposes a novel CNN(convolutional neural network)using an attention blocks module which combines an attention module with numerous input layers to enhance the performance of neural networks.The suggested model focuses on predicting the damage affected/burned areas due to possible wildfires and evaluating the multilateral interactions between the pertinent factors.The results show the impacts of CNN using attention blocks for feature extraction and to better understand how ecosystems are affected by meteorological factors.For selected meteorological data,RMSE 12.08 and MAE 7.45 values provide higher predictive power for selecting relevant and necessary features to provide optimal performance with less operational and computational costs.These findings show that the suggested strategy is reliable and effective for planning and managing fire-prone regions as well as for predicting forest fire damage.

Development of a machine learning model for predicting abnormalities of commercial airplanes

Airplanes are a social necessity for movement of humans,goods,and other.They are generally safe modes of transportation;however,incidents and accidents occasionally occur.To prevent aviation accidents,it is necessary to develop a machine-learning model to detect and predict commercial flights using automatic dependent surveillance–broadcast data.This study combined data-quality detection,anomaly detection,and abnormality-classification-model development.The research methodology involved the following stages:problem statement,data selection and labeling,prediction-model development,deployment,and testing.The data labeling process was based on the rules framed by the international civil aviation organization for commercial,jet-engine flights and validated by expert commercial pilots.The results showed that the best prediction model,the quadratic-discriminant-analysis,was 93%accurate,indicating a“good fit”.Moreover,the model’s area-under-the-curve results for abnormal and normal detection were 0.97 and 0.96,respectively,thus confirming its“good fit”.

A semi-infinite beam theoretical model on predicting rock slope subsidence induced by underground mining

When the mining goaf is close to the cliff,rock slope subsidence induced by underground mining is significantly affected by its boundary conditions.In this study,an analytical method is proposed by considering the key strata as a semi-infinite Euler-Bernoulli beam rested on a Winkler foundation with a local subsidence area.The analytical solutions of deflection are derived by analyzing the boundary and continuity conditions of the cliff.Then,the analytical solutions are verified by the results from experimental tests,FEM and InSAR,respectively.After that,the influence of changing parameters on deflections is studied with sensitivity analysis.The results show that the distance between goaf and cliff significantly affects the deflection of semi-infinite beam.The response of semi-infinite beam is obviously determined by the length of goaf and the bending stiffness of beam.The comparisons between semi-infinite beam and infinite beam illustrate the ascendancy of the improved model in such problems.

Predicting Purchasing Behavior on E-Commerce Platforms: A Regression Model Approach for Understanding User Features that Lead to Purchasing

This research introduces a novel approach to improve and optimize the predictive capacity of consumer purchase behaviors on e-commerce platforms. This study presented an introduction to the fundamental concepts of the logistic regression algorithm. In addition, it analyzed user data obtained from an e-commerce platform. The original data were preprocessed, and a consumer purchase prediction model was developed for the e-commerce platform using the logistic regression method. The comparison study used the classic random forest approach, further enhanced by including the K-fold cross-validation method. Evaluation of the accuracy of the model’s classification was conducted using performance indicators that included the accuracy rate, the precision rate, the recall rate, and the F1 score. A visual examination determined the significance of the findings. The findings suggest that employing the logistic regression algorithm to forecast customer purchase behaviors on e-commerce platforms can improve the efficacy of the approach and yield more accurate predictions. This study serves as a valuable resource for improving the precision of forecasting customers’ purchase behaviors on e-commerce platforms. It has significant practical implications for optimizing the operational efficiency of e-commerce platforms.

Application value of machine learning models in predicting intraoperative hypothermia in laparoscopic surgery for polytrauma patients

BACKGROUND Hypothermia during laparoscopic surgery in patients with multiple trauma is a significant concern owing to its potential complications.Machine learning models offer a promising approach to predict the occurrence of intraoperative hypothermia.AIM To investigate the value of machine learning model to predict hypothermia during laparoscopic surgery in patients with multiple trauma.METHODS This retrospective study enrolled 220 patients who were admitted with multiple injuries between June 2018 and December 2023.Of these,154 patients were allocated to a training set and the remaining 66 were allocated to a validation set in a 7:3 ratio.In the training set,53 cases experienced intraoperative hypothermia and 101 did not.Logistic regression analysis was used to construct a predictive model of intraoperative hypothermia in patients with polytrauma undergoing laparoscopic surgery.The area under the curve(AUC),sensitivity,and specificity were calculated.RESULTS Comparison of the hypothermia and non-hypothermia groups found significant differences in sex,age,baseline temperature,intraoperative temperature,duration of anesthesia,duration of surgery,intraoperative fluid infusion,crystalloid infusion,colloid infusion,and pneumoperitoneum volume(P<0.05).Differences between other characteristics were not significant(P>0.05).The results of the logistic regression analysis showed that age,baseline temperature,intraoperative temperature,duration of anesthesia,and duration of surgery were independent influencing factors for intraoperative hypothermia during laparoscopic surgery(P<0.05).Calibration curve analysis showed good consistency between the predicted occurrence of intraoperative hypothermia and the actual occurrence(P>0.05).The predictive model had AUCs of 0.850 and 0.829 for the training and validation sets,respectively.CONCLUSION Machine learning effectively predicted intraoperative hypothermia in polytrauma patients undergoing laparoscopic surgery,which improved surgical safety and patient recovery.

Development and validation of a nomogram model for predicting the risk of pre-hospital delay in patients with acute myocardial infarction

BACKGROUND Acute myocardial infarction(AMI)is a severe cardiovascular disease caused by the blockage of coronary arteries that leads to ischemic necrosis of the myocardium.Timely medical contact is critical for successful AMI treatment,and delays increase the risk of death for patients.Pre-hospital delay time(PDT)is a significant challenge for reducing treatment times,as identifying high-risk patients with AMI remains difficult.This study aims to construct a risk prediction model to identify high-risk patients and develop targeted strategies for effective and prompt care,ultimately reducing PDT and improving treatment outcomes.AIM To construct a nomogram model for forecasting pre-hospital delay(PHD)likelihood in patients with AMI and to assess the precision of the nomogram model in predicting PHD risk.METHODS A retrospective cohort design was employed to investigate predictive factors for PHD in patients with AMI diagnosed between January 2022 and September 2022.The study included 252 patients,with 180 randomly assigned to the development group and the remaining 72 to the validation group in a 7:3 ratio.Independent risk factors influencing PHD were identified in the development group,leading to the establishment of a nomogram model for predicting PHD in patients with AMI.The model's predictive performance was evaluated using the receiver operating characteristic curve in both the development and validation groups.RESULTS Independent risk factors for PHD in patients with AMI included living alone,hyperlipidemia,age,diabetes mellitus,and digestive system diseases(P<0.05).A characteristic curve analysis indicated area under the receiver operating characteristic curve values of 0.787(95%confidence interval:0.716–0.858)and 0.770(95%confidence interval:0.660-0.879)in the development and validation groups,respectively,demonstrating the model's good discriminatory ability.The Hosmer–Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test revealed no statistically significant disparity between the anticipated and observed incidence of PHD in both development and validation cohorts(P>0.05),indicating satisfactory model calibration.CONCLUSION The nomogram model,developed with independent risk factors,accurately forecasts PHD likelihood in AMI individuals,enabling efficient identification of PHD risk in these patients.

Predicting Rock Burst in Underground Engineering Leveraging a Novel Metaheuristic-Based LightGBM Model

Rock bursts represent a formidable challenge in underground engineering,posing substantial risks to both infrastructure and human safety.These sudden and violent failures of rock masses are characterized by the rapid release of accumulated stress within the rock,leading to severe seismic events and structural damage.Therefore,the development of reliable prediction models for rock bursts is paramount to mitigating these hazards.This study aims to propose a tree-based model—a Light Gradient Boosting Machine(LightGBM)—to predict the intensity of rock bursts in underground engineering.322 actual rock burst cases are collected to constitute an exhaustive rock burst dataset,which serves to train the LightGBMmodel.Two population-basedmetaheuristic algorithms are used to optimize the hyperparameters of the LightGBM model.Finally,the sensitivity analysis is used to identify the predominant factors that may incur the occurrence of rock bursts.The results show that the population-based metaheuristic algorithms have a good ability to search out the optimal hyperparameters of the LightGBM model.The developed LightGBM model yields promising performance in predicting the intensity of rock bursts,with which accuracy on training and testing sets are 0.972 and 0.944,respectively.The sensitivity analysis discloses that the risk of occurring rock burst is significantly sensitive to three factors:uniaxial compressive strength(σc),stress concentration factor(SCF),and elastic strain energy index(Wet).Moreover,this study clarifies the particular impact of these three factors on the intensity of rock bursts through the partial dependence plot.

Predicting Users’ Latent Suicidal Risk in Social Media: An Ensemble Model Based on Social Network Relationships

Suicide has become a critical concern,necessitating the development of effective preventative strategies.Social media platforms offer a valuable resource for identifying signs of suicidal ideation.Despite progress in detecting suicidal ideation on social media,accurately identifying individuals who express suicidal thoughts less openly or infrequently poses a significant challenge.To tackle this,we have developed a dataset focused on Chinese suicide narratives from Weibo’s Tree Hole feature and introduced an ensemble model named Text Convolutional Neural Network based on Social Network relationships(TCNN-SN).This model enhances predictive performance by leveraging social network relationship features and applying correction factors within a weighted linear fusion framework.It is specifically designed to identify key individuals who can help uncover hidden suicidal users and clusters.Our model,assessed using the bespoke dataset and benchmarked against alternative classification approaches,demonstrates superior accuracy,F1-score and AUC metrics,achieving 88.57%,88.75%and 94.25%,respectively,outperforming traditional TextCNN models by 12.18%,10.84%and 10.85%.We assert that our methodology offers a significant advancement in the predictive identification of individuals at risk,thereby contributing to the prevention and reduction of suicide incidences.

Predicting Malaria Dynamics in Burundi Using Deep Learning Models

Malaria continues to be a major public health problem on the African continent, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa despite the ongoing efforts and significant progress that has been made. In the case of Burundi, malaria remains a major public health concern in the general population. In the literature, there are limited malaria prediction models for Burundi knowing that such tools are much needed for intervention design. In this study, deep-learning models are built to estimate malaria cases in Burundi. The forecast of malaria cases was carried out both at the provincial and national levels. Long short term memory (LSTM) model, a type of deep learning model, has been used to achieve best results using climate-change related factors such as temperature, rainfall, relative humidity, together with malaria historical data and human population. With this model, the results showed that different parameter tuning can be used to determine the minimum and maximum expected malaria cases. The univariate version of that model (LSTM), which learns from previous dynamics of malaria cases, gives more precise estimates, but both univariate and multivariate models have the same overall trends at the province level and country level.

A multi-mineral model for predicting petrophysical properties of complex metamorphic reservoirs:Case study of the Bozhong Depression,Bohai Sea

Interpreting reservoir properties through log data and logging responses in complex strata is critical for efficient petroleum exploitation,particularly for metamorphic rocks.However,the unsatisfactory accuracy of such interpretations in complex reservoirs has hindered their widespread application,resulting in severe inconvenience.In this study,we proposed a multi-mineral model based on the least-square method and an optimal principle to interpret the logging responses and petrophysical properties of complex hydrocarbon reservoirs.We began by selecting the main minerals based on a comprehensive analysis of log data,X-ray diffraction,petrographic thin sections and scanning electron microscopy(SEM)for three wells in the Bozhong 19-6 structural zone.In combination of the physical properties of these minerals with logging responses,we constructed the multi-mineral model,which can predict the log curves,petrophysical properties and mineral profile.The predicted and measured log data are evaluated using a weighted average error,which shows that the multi-mineral model has satisfactory prediction performance with errors below 11%in most intervals.Finally,we apply the model to a new well“x”in the Bozhong 19-6 structural zone,and the predicted logging responses match well with measured data with the weighted average error below 11.8%for most intervals.Moreover,the lithology is dominated by plagioclase,K-feldspar,and quartz as shown by the mineral profile,which correlates with the lithology of the Archean metamorphic rocks in this region.It is concluded that the multi-mineral model presented in this study provides reasonable methods for interpreting log data in complex metamorphic hydrocarbon reservoirs and could assist in efficient development in the future.

A novel framework for predicting non-stationary production time series of shale gas based on BiLSTM-RF-MPA deep fusion model

Shale gas, as an environmentally friendly fossil energy resource, has gained significant commercial development and shows immense potential. However, accurately predicting shale gas production faces substantial challenges due to the complex law of decline, nonlinear and non-stationary features in production data, which greatly repair the robustness of current models in predicting shale gas production time series. To address these challenges and improve accuracy in production forecasting, this paper introduces a novel and innovative approach: a hybrid proxy model that combines the bidirectional long short-term memory(BiLSTM) neural network and random forest(RF) through deep learning. The BiLSTM neural network is adept at capturing long-term dependencies, making it suitable for understanding the intricate relationships between input and output variables in shale gas production.On the other hand, RF serves a dual purpose: reducing model variance and addressing the concept drift problem that arises in non-stationary time series predictions made by BiLSTM. By integrating these two models, the hybrid approach effectively captures the inherent dependencies present in long and nonstationary production time series, thereby reducing model uncertainty. Furthermore, the combination of BiLSTM and RF is optimized using the recently-proposed marine predators algorithm(MPA) to fine-tune hyperparameters and enhance the overall performance of the proxy model. The results demonstrate that the proposed BiLSTM-RF-MPA model achieves higher prediction accuracy and demonstrates stronger generalization capabilities by effectively handling the complex nonlinear and non-stationary characteristics of shale gas production time series. Compared to other models such as LSTM, BiLSTM, and RF, the proposed model exhibits superior fitting and prediction performance, with an average improvement in performance indicators exceeding 20%. This innovative framework provides valuable insights for forecasting the complex production performance of unconventional oil and gas reservoirs, which sheds light on the development of data-driven proxy models in the field of subsurface energy utilization.

Establishing and clinically validating a machine learning model for predicting unplanned reoperation risk in colorectal cancer

BACKGROUND Colorectal cancer significantly impacts global health,with unplanned reoperations post-surgery being key determinants of patient outcomes.Existing predictive models for these reoperations lack precision in integrating complex clinical data.AIM To develop and validate a machine learning model for predicting unplanned reoperation risk in colorectal cancer patients.METHODS Data of patients treated for colorectal cancer(n=2044)at the First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University and Wenzhou Central Hospital from March 2020 to March 2022 were retrospectively collected.Patients were divided into an experimental group(n=60)and a control group(n=1984)according to unplanned reoperation occurrence.Patients were also divided into a training group and a validation group(7:3 ratio).We used three different machine learning methods to screen characteristic variables.A nomogram was created based on multifactor logistic regression,and the model performance was assessed using receiver operating characteristic curve,calibration curve,Hosmer-Lemeshow test,and decision curve analysis.The risk scores of the two groups were calculated and compared to validate the model.RESULTS More patients in the experimental group were≥60 years old,male,and had a history of hypertension,laparotomy,and hypoproteinemia,compared to the control group.Multiple logistic regression analysis confirmed the following as independent risk factors for unplanned reoperation(P<0.05):Prognostic Nutritional Index value,history of laparotomy,hypertension,or stroke,hypoproteinemia,age,tumor-node-metastasis staging,surgical time,gender,and American Society of Anesthesiologists classification.Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis showed that the model had good discrimination and clinical utility.CONCLUSION This study used a machine learning approach to build a model that accurately predicts the risk of postoperative unplanned reoperation in patients with colorectal cancer,which can improve treatment decisions and prognosis.

Predicting carbon storage of mixed broadleaf forests based on the finite mixture model incorporating stand factors,site quality,and aridity index

The diameter distribution function(DDF)is a crucial tool for accurately predicting stand carbon storage(CS).The current key issue,however,is how to construct a high-precision DDF based on stand factors,site quality,and aridity index to predict stand CS in multi-species mixed forests with complex structures.This study used data from70 survey plots for mixed broadleaf Populus davidiana and Betula platyphylla forests in the Mulan Rangeland State Forest,Hebei Province,China,to construct the DDF based on maximum likelihood estimation and finite mixture model(FMM).Ordinary least squares(OLS),linear seemingly unrelated regression(LSUR),and back propagation neural network(BPNN)were used to investigate the influences of stand factors,site quality,and aridity index on the shape and scale parameters of DDF and predicted stand CS of mixed broadleaf forests.The results showed that FMM accurately described the stand-level diameter distribution of the mixed P.davidiana and B.platyphylla forests;whereas the Weibull function constructed by MLE was more accurate in describing species-level diameter distribution.The combined variable of quadratic mean diameter(Dq),stand basal area(BA),and site quality improved the accuracy of the shape parameter models of FMM;the combined variable of Dq,BA,and De Martonne aridity index improved the accuracy of the scale parameter models.Compared to OLS and LSUR,the BPNN had higher accuracy in the re-parameterization process of FMM.OLS,LSUR,and BPNN overestimated the CS of P.davidiana but underestimated the CS of B.platyphylla in the large diameter classes(DBH≥18 cm).BPNN accurately estimated stand-and species-level CS,but it was more suitable for estimating stand-level CS compared to species-level CS,thereby providing a scientific basis for the optimization of stand structure and assessment of carbon sequestration capacity in mixed broadleaf forests.