Development and Utilization of the World＇s and China＇s Bulk Mineral Resources and their Supply and Demand Situation in the Next Twenty Years

Bulk mineral resources of iron ores, copper ores, bauxite, lead ores, zinc ores and potassium salt play a pivotal role on the world＇s and China＇s economic development. This study analyzed and predicted their resources base and potential, development and utilization and their world＇s and China＇s supply and demand situation in the future 20 years. The supply and demand of these six bulk mineral products are generally balanced, with a slight surplus, which will guarantee the stability of the international mineral commodity market supply. The six mineral resources （especially iron ores and copper ores） are abundant and have a great potential, and their development and utilization scale will gradually increase. Till the end of 2014, the reserve- production ratio of iron, copper, bauxite, lead, zinc ores and potassium salt was 95 years, 42 years, 100 years, 17 years, 37 years and 170 years, respectively. Except lead ores, the other five types all have reserve-production ratio exceeding 20 years, indicative of a high resources guarantee degree. If the utilization of recycled metals is counted in, the supply of the world＇s six mineral products will exceed the demand in the future twenty years. In 2015-2035, the supply of iron ores, refined copper, primary aluminum, refined lead, zinc and potassium salt will exceed their demand by 0.4-0.7 billion tons （Gt）, 5.0-6.0 million tons （Mt）, 1.1-8.9 Mt, 1.0-2.0 Mt, 1.2-2.0 Mt and 4.8-5.6 Mt, respectively. It is predicted that there is no problem with the supply side of bulk mineral products such as iron ores, but local or structural shortage may occur because of geopolitics, monopoly control, resources nationalism and trade friction. Affected by China＇s compressed industrialized development model, the demand of iron ores （crude steel）, potassium salt, refined lead, refined copper, bauxite （primary aluminum） and zinc will gradually reach their peak in advance. The demand peak of iron ores （crude steel） will reach around 2015, 2016 for potassium salt, 2020 for refined lead, 2021 for bauxite （primary aluminum）, 2022 for refined copper and 2023 for zinc. China＇s demand for iron ores （crude steel）, bauxite （primary aluminum） and zinc in the future 20 years will decline among the world＇s demand, while that for refined copper, refined lead and potassium salt will slightly increase. The demand for bulk mineral products still remains high. In 2015-2035, China＇s accumulative demand for iron ores （crude steel） will be 20.313 Gt （13.429 Gt）, 0.304 Gt for refined copper, 2.466 Gt （0.616 Gt） of bauxite （primary aluminum）, 0.102 Gt of refined lead, 0.138 Gt of zinc and 0.157 Gt of potassium salt, and they account for the world＇s YOY （YOY） accumulative demand of 35.17%, 51.09%, 48.47%, 46.62%, 43.95% and 21.84%, respectively. This proportion is 49.40%, 102.52%, 87.44%, 105.65%, 93.62% and 106.49% of that in 2014, respectively. From the supply side of China＇s bulk mineral resources, it is forecasted that the accumulative supply of primary （mine） mineral products in 2015-2035 is 4.046 Gt of iron ores, 0.591 Gt of copper, 1.129 Gt of bauxite, 63.661 Mt of （mine） lead, 0.109 Gt of （mine） zinc and 0.128 Gt of potassium salt, which accounts for 8.82%, 13.92%, 26.67%, 47.09%, 33.04% and 15.56% of the world＇s predicted YOY production, respectively. With the rapid increase in the smelting capacity of iron and steel and alumina, the rate of capacity utilization for crude steel, refined copper, alumina, primary aluminum and refined lead in 2014 was 72.13%, 83.63%, 74.45%, 70.76% and 72.22%, respectively. During 2000-2014, the rate of capacity utilization for China＇s crude steel and refined copper showed a generally fluctuating decrease, which leads to an insufficient supply of primary mineral products. It is forecasted that the supply insufficiency of iron ores in 2015-2035 is 17.44 Gt, 0.245 Gt of copper in copper concentrates, 1.337 Gt of bauxite, 38.44 Mt of lead in lead concentrates and 29.19 Mt of zinc in zinc concentrates. China has gradually raised the utilization of recycled metals, which has mitigated the insufficient supply of primary metal products to some extent. It is forecasted that in 2015-2035 the accumulative utilization amount of steel scrap （iron ores） is 3.27 Gt （5.08 Gt）, 70.312 Mt of recycled copper, 0.2 Gt of recycled aluminum, 48 Mt of recycled lead and 7.7 Mt of recycled zinc. The analysis on the supply and demand situation of China＇s bulk mineral resources in 2015-2035 suggests that the supply-demand contradiction for these six types of mineral products will decrease, indicative of a generally declining external dependency. If the use of recycled metal amount is counted in, the external dependency of China＇s iron, copper, bauxite, lead, zinc and potassium salt will be 79%, 65%, 26%, 8%, 16% and 18% in 2014, respectively. It is predicted that this external dependency will decrease to 62%, 64%, 20%, -0.93%, 16% and 14% in 2020, respectively, showing an overall decreasing trend. We propose the following suggestions correspondingly. （1） The demand peak of China＇s crude steel and potassium salt will reach during 2015-2023 in succession. Mining transformation should be planned and deployed in advance to deal with the arrival of this demand peak. （2） The supply-demand contradiction of China＇s bulk mineral resources will mitigate in the future 20 years, and the external dependency will decrease accordingly. It is suggested to adjust the mineral resources management policies according to different minerals and regions, and regulate the exploration and development activities. （3） China should further establish and improve the forced mechanism of resolving the smelting overcapacity of steel, refined copper, primary aluminum, lead and zinc to really achieve the goal of ＂reducing excess production capacity＂. （4） In accordance with the national strategic deployment of ＂One Belt One Road＂, China should encourage the excess capacity of steel, copper, alumina and primary aluminum enterprises to transfer to those countries or areas with abundant resources, high energy matching degree and relatively excellent infrastructure. Based on the national conditions, mining condition and geopolitics of the resources countries, we will gradually build steel, copper, aluminum and lead-zinc smelting bases, and potash processing and production bases, which will promote the excess capacity to transfer to the overseas orderly. （5） It is proposed to strengthen the planning and management of renewable resources recycling and to construct industrial base of renewable metal recycling. （6） China should promote the comprehensive development and utilization of paragenetic and associated mineral species to further improve the comprehensive utilization of bulk mineral resources.

Analysis of China’s Crude Oil Supply and Demand in the Year 2010 and the Year 2020

Along with the speedy development of the economic growth in China, the shortage of oil and gas becomes more and more serious. Based on summarizing some related research results, the prediction of China＇s oil demand and supply in the year 2010 and the year 2020 has been given in the paper. The oil supply and demand situation is discussed on three different levels. Accordingly, suggestions about the oil supply safety and the national economy safety strategies have been given.

Forestland prediction of China based on forest ecosystem services for the first half of 21st century

A new model was developed to predict forestland demand of China during the years of 2010-2050 in terms of the concept of forest ecosystem services. On the basis of the relationship between forest ecosystem services and classified forest management, we hypothesized that the ecological-forest provides ecological services, whereas commercial-forest supplies wood and timber production, and the influences of the growth of population, social-economic development target, forest management methods and the technology changes on forest resources were also taken into account. The prediction reveals that the demand of total forestland of China will be 244.8, 261.2 and 362.2 million ha by the year 2010, 2020 and 2050, respectively. The results demonstrated that China will be confronted with a shortage of forest resources, especially with lack of ecological-oriented forests, in the future. It is suggested that sustainable management of forest resources must be reinforced and more attention should be drown no enhancing the service function of forest ecosystem.

Oil and Gas Supply and Demand in China and Its Development Strategy

The paper makes a comprehensive prediction of China＇s future demand for oil and gas with two methods, i.e. the prediction method based on the demand for individual oil and gas products and the method for predicting the total demand. According to the demand prediction of, and the historical data on, the oil and gas consumption, we conduct an analysis of the oil and gas consumption trends, which can be described as six different development periods. On the other hand, the paper makes a comprehensive analysis of the domestic oil and gas resources and, on this basis, makes a basic prediction of the domestic output of oil and gas. The supply and demand situation is also analyzed. By using the SWOT analysis method, the paper puts forward the development strategies for China＇s oil and gas industry and gives some related strategic measures.

供给-需求综合视角下江苏儿科医师队伍紧缺情况研究

背景基于儿童群体的特殊性及近几年生育政策的调整,儿科医师队伍建设越来越重要,但当前儿科医师紧缺且研究多为定性研究,定量研究较缺乏。目的建立多角度需求预测模型,综合分析江苏儿科医生队伍紧缺情况,为推动江苏省“十四五”时期儿童健康事业发展,加快建设新时代儿科队伍提供参考。方法根据《2018年江苏省卫生服务调查分析报告》获得2018年江苏省儿科医疗服务相关指标,利用《2019年江苏省统计年鉴》和从江苏省卫生统计信息中心数据库中获取江苏省各市儿科的基本情况,运用SPSS 24.0分析软件,从供给-需求两个视角建立多角度需求预测模型,对江苏省儿科医师紧缺数量进行综合分析。结果江苏省儿科医师队伍女性医师占比较高;年龄以中青年为主;学历以本科为主;职称结构较为合理;工作年限大部分在20年以上。结合江苏儿科医师队伍基本情况并综合供给-需求视角,江苏省儿科医师紧缺数在1.83万人,13个设区市平均紧缺医师数为0.15万人。结论儿科诊疗资源供不应求,医师工作负荷较高;儿科医师队伍的性别和职称结构失衡;特殊的执业环境导致执业风险增加。需加强人才培养及引进政策,夯实人才专业基础,探索“互联网+医联体”管理新模式。

技术供需视角下技术专利发展需求识别——以新能源汽车领域为例

[目的/意义]市场技术供需平衡关系是技术发展方向的重要指示,用户对于产品功能的需求能够较好地反映市场对相应技术的需求,构建基于用户情感的产品功能到技术的映射,对于分析和预测技术需求有重要意义。[方法/过程]首先基于用户对于新能源汽车功能的评论数据及其相关专利数据,构建功能—技术主题映射关系模型;然后通过对用户评论数据的情感分析对技术及其相应的技术进行需求度定位;最后对相应专利主题进行关联分析,通过可视化来呈现研究结果。[结果/结论]我国新能源汽车市场当前技术研发的重点方向主要集中在发电机、电池、电子电器和外观方面,技术缺失主要在于底盘、安全、人机交互和内饰方面;同时用户在底盘和安全这两方面的需求度高,现有相关技术研发未能满足用户需求,是未来技术研发的重要方向。文章解决了以往技术供需分析方法的主观性和不确定性问题,弥补了技术市场与真实需求之间的对接不足,为新能源汽车产业发展方向提供参考。[局限]仅使用中国专利文摘数据,对论文数据和国外专利数据分析存在信息局限性。

基于扰动观测器的动态供应链系统模型预测控制

针对不确定市场需求供应链系统(supply chain system)的生产-库存预测控制问题,设计了一种模型预测控制(model predictive control,MPC)和扰动观测器(disturbance observer,DOB)结合的供应链系统生产控制策略。首先,对三级供应链系统进行分析,构建三级动态供应链的生产-库存数学模型;其次,设计基于扰动观测器的前馈补偿机制,补偿不确定性需求对供应链系统的影响;最后,考虑供应链系统存在的实际约束条件,设计模型预测控制方案,并证明系统的渐进稳定性。算例仿真验证了该方法的有效性。

基于灰色系统理论的中国天然气供需预测预警研究

天然气具有低碳、清洁、高效等特征,已成为中国主体能源之一,其供需矛盾凸显,开展天然气供需预测预警研究对“双碳”目标的顺利实现具有重要意义。从供给、需求、市场、社会4个维度,选择储采比、自给率、储量指数、消费占比、消费强度、进口依存度、进口集中度、保障系数、碳强度及人均GDP等10个预警指标,构建中国天然气供需预测预警指标体系。利用GM(1,1)模型对各项预警指标进行预测,从客观和主观视角,分别采取熵值法和G1法确定指标权重,运用灰色关联分析法对中国天然气供需状态进行预警。研究结果表明:①对中国天然气供需影响较大的4个因子依次为储采比、自给率、储量指数、进口集中度,中国天然气供需安全度呈稳步上升趋势;②在“十四五”期间,中国天然气供需状况处于临界安全状态,达到Ⅲ级;“十五五”期间由临界安全状态过渡到安全状态,最终达到Ⅳ级。结论认为:持续推进油气增储上产行动计划、构建天然气多元进口体系、加快天然气储气机制建设、加快新能源开发利用等是保障中国天然气供给安全的有效措施。

广西西江流域及主要支流水量分配方案分析

以水利部分配给广西的流域水量控制指标及各市用水总量控制指标为依据,统筹考虑调入与调出、河道内与河道外用水、用水与消耗等关系,开展广西西江及其主要干支流水资源供需平衡和水资源配置分析,合理确定本流域地表水资源的可分配水量。并综合考虑流域内区域间用水关系,依据水资源配置成果,按照水量分配的原则,合理确定广西西江流域及主要支流供各市河道外利用的地表水用水量份额。

龙江河谷灌区需水预测分析

龙江河谷灌区开发任务为农业灌溉及城乡供水,打造龙江清水廊道,保障区域粮食生产安全和人饮供水安全,为少数民族地区巩固拓展脱贫攻坚成果、促进乡村振兴创造条件。本文对灌区内的农业灌溉、城区、村镇用水进行预测,预测成果可为灌区工程规模、水资源优化配置和供水决策提供依据。

基于改进LSTM的短期电力供需负荷预测方法研究

为提升短期电力供需负荷预测过程的泛化能力,获取更准确的短期电力负荷预测结果,提出基于改进LSTM的短期电力供需负荷预测方法。先采用聚类算法检测电力供需负荷数据内的异常数据,并采用灰色理论修正数据。然后构建长短时记忆(LSTM)网络预测模型,将修正后的电力供需负荷数据内29个特征值作为模型输入。最后参考模拟退火算法概率突变理论改进粒子群算法,利用改进后的粒子群算法求解LSTM预测模型内主要参数的最优值,通过运算输出后一天24个整点电力供需负荷预测结果。实验结果表明:所研究方法可有效检测异常数据,提升短期电力供需负荷数据预测模拟的精度与泛化能力。

基于灰色模型的鲁西北平原水资源供需平衡分析

水资源是影响鲁西北平原经济发展的重要因素,分析水资源供需平衡状况,预测未来需水量,对促进水资源的合理开发利用及人与自然和谐发展具有重要意义。基于陵城区近12年的用水量数据,采用灰色GM(1,1)模型预测方法,从2022年水资源可支撑的经济规模和人口数量的宏观指标角度描述需水量,对模型结果进行检验,并对2023~2030年供需水状态进行预测分析,并对模型结果进行了检验。结果表明,2022现状年的宏观需水量计算结果与模型相对误差δ=0.008,灰度模型预测结果准确。供水保证率为50%时,2022现状年缺水量为4090万m^(3),占总水量的16.74%;2030规划年缺水量为1811万m^(3),占总水量的6.28%。2030年水资源供需仍未达到平衡状态,但水资源平衡指数I_D逐年上升,水资源短缺状态逐步缓解。在现有经济与技术条件下,2030规划年水资源负载指数为Ⅲ级,水资源承载潜力不足,水资源开发利用方式单一,仍是社会经济发展的瓶颈。本研究为鲁西北平原水资源合理规划与开发利用提供参考。

人才视角下高科技企业与专业技能间的关系预测和路径演化研究——以IC领域为例

[目的/意义]人才视角下明确高科技企业的专业技能需求以及变化趋势,有助于加快聚合创新要素、逐步组建技术团体以及建立健全协作体系。[方法/过程]文章以IC(Integrated Circuit)领域在职者简历信息为数据基础,基于时间维度下的协同过滤推荐算法,实现领域企业和专业技能间的关系预测和评估;结合Word2vec词向量模型与LDA模型,对简历信息进行数据挖掘与语料库扩充,进而识别技能主题;随后刻画技能主题演化路径并进行可视化表达,明确IC领域技能主题发展现状及演化规律。[结果/结论]研究表明,基于时间维度下的协同过滤思路适用于企业与技能关系预测,平均准确率达96.68%;IC领域的技能主题演化呈现“聚合→分散→再聚合”的趋势,各技能主题路径演化规律有所差异,具体表现形式为螺旋交叉演化、创新迭代演化和技术依附演化;研究给出的IC行业整体技能发展态势和路径变化规律,可为高科技企业和在职者提供更精准的检索方法和技能选择方向。

基于GWAS模型的榆林市水资源优化配置

水资源对于地区的经济社会发展起着重要的作用,而我国各地区水资源分布又非常不均匀,这就导致了很多缺水地区供需矛盾变得日益显著。以陕西省榆林市为研究对象,以2020年为基准年,采用定额法对榆林市2030年需水量及可供水量进行预测,运用GWAS模型针对丰平枯三种来水情景进行水资源优化配置研究。研究结果表明:丰水年、平水年、枯水年三种来水情景下2030年榆林市配置水量为16.19亿m^(3)、18.42亿m^(3)、19.51亿m^(3),其对应的缺水率分别为10.71%、14.34%、16.78%。2030年丰平枯情景下各行业缺水率呈递增趋势,缺水率变化最为显著的为农业方面,其缺水率分别为15.97%、19.86%、23.83%。优化配置过后,榆林市供水结构及供水平衡情况得到明显改善,给未来榆林市及其他地区进行水资源规划提供了参考。

小型海岛地区调度方法——岱山县案例研究

研究针对中国小型岛屿地区的淡水资源短缺问题,以提高水资源的利用效率为核心。研究目标涵盖构建来水和用水预测模型,开发针对水库运行的数学模型,并着重于水资源管理的优化。以浙江省岱山县为案例,阐述调度方法在减少弃水率和提高水资源利用效率方面的量化效果。研究结果表明,岱山县在3月份的空库系数最低(0.738),而水库群平均蓄水率达到67.19%。研究提出的调度方案显著减少了弃水量,并提高了水量利用系数和灌溉保证率。研究为解决小型岛屿地区以及其他水资源匮乏地区的淡水短缺问题提供一个高效的新视角和可行性方案,为推动水资源管理的可持续发展提供参考。

Analysis and Forecast for Timber Supply and Demand in China

Based on the data from 2002 to 2010, the paper analyzed the situation of timber supply and demand in China, and concluded that supply-demand could be balanced basically if taking accounting of timber import. Based on the data from the Seventh National Forestry Inventory, the potential of providing timber from natural forest and plantation was analyzed. The paper also forecasted the future features and trend of timber supply and demand in China. In the end, strategic measures and technological and policy guarantee system were put forward.

The Price Model of Aquatic Products Based on Predictive Control Theory

This paper discusses a disequilibrium cobweb model of price of aquatic products, and applies predictive control theory, so that the system operates stably, and the deviation between supply and demand of aquatic products smoothly tracks the pre-given target. It defines the supply and demand change model, and researches the impact of parameter selection in this model on dynamic state and robustness of the system. I conduct simulation by Matlab software, to get the response curve of this model. The results show that in the early period of commodities coming into the market, affected by lack of market information and many other factors, the price fluctuates greatly in a short time. The market will gradually achieve balance between supply and demand over time, and the price fluctuations in the neighbouring two periods are broadly consistent. The increase in model parameter can decrease overshoot, to promote the stability of system, but the slower the dynamic response, the longer the deviation between supply and demand to accurately track a given target. Therefore, by selecting different parameters, the decision-makers can establish different models of supply and demand changes to meet the actual needs, and ensure stable development of market. Simulation results verify the excellent performance of this algorithm.

Study on Balance between Supply and Demand for Timber and Timber Products in China

Based on the forest resources, supply and demand for timber as well as the demand tendency of timber in China, this article studies how to achieve the balance of supply and demand by self-support and indicates that developing fast growing forest plantations to get more timber, using timber and forest resources efficiently and economically, enlarging resources of raw materials, exploring and using bio- mass resources for bio-based composites are efficient ways to fill the gap between supply and demand for timber and timber products in China.

京津冀城市群需水量预测与供水工程建设措施研究

京津冀城市群属于严重缺水地区,对其需水量进行科学合理预测是水务部门规划建设未来供水工程项目的前提和基础。针对京津冀城市群需水量开展预测研究,确定与经济、社会、用水和资源可用性相关的解释变量,利用京津冀城市群2004~2020年数据,建立了6种机器学习需水量预测模型,构建预测情景以寻求最优预测模型;根据京津冀城市群可供水量数据,测算出2021~2025年供需差。结果表明:XGBoost模型性能最好,误差最低,预测准确率达99.98%;预测京津冀城市群2021~2025年年均需水量较往年略有下降,在250.6亿m 3左右波动;2021~2025年供水工程供需缺口总量预计约6亿m 3。针对京津冀城市群供水工程规划建设,建议从持续推进南水北调工程建设、统筹协调绿色节水型城市建设和不断优化城市群供水管网建设等方面开展。

河南省卫河流域蓄滞洪区水资源供需情势分析

为明晰河南省卫河流域蓄滞洪区水资源供需情势,构建最小二乘法与灰色预测模型相结合的组合模型,预测2025年、2035年该区域的需水量与供水量,并对其开展供需平衡分析。结果表明:河南省卫河流域蓄滞洪区2025年50%、75%保证率的农业需水量占比分别为68%、73%,2035年50%、75%保证率的农业需水量占比分别为61%、67%,农业需水量在总需水量中占比较大;2025年、2035年研究区均处于缺水状态。建议研究区落实最严格水资源管理制度,合理利用南水北调水,加强雨洪水资源利用,逐步改善水资源供需不平衡状态。