Construction and clinical significance of a predictive system for prognosis of hepatocellular carcinoma

AIM: The aims of this study were to explore individualized treatment method for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients whose maximum tumor size was less than 5 cm to improve prognosis and survival quality. METHODS: Thirty cases of primary HCC patients undergoing tumor resection were retrospectively analyzed (resection group). All the tumors were proved as primary HCC with pathologic examination. The patients were divided into two groups according to follow-up results: group A, with tumor recurrence within 1 year after resection; group B, without tumor recurrence within 1 year. Immunohist-ochemical stainings were performed using 11 kinds of monoclonal antibodies (AFP, c-erbB2, c-met, c-myc, HBsAg, HCV, Ki-67, MMP-2, nm23-H1, P53, and VEGF), and expressing intensities were quantitatively analyzed. Regression equation using factors affecting prognosis of HCC was constructed with binary logistic method. HCC patients undergoing percutaneous microwave coagulation therapy (PMCT) were also retrospectively analyzed (PMCT group). Immunohistochemical stainings of tumor biopsy samples were performed with molecules related to HCC prognosis, staining intensities were quantitatively analyzed, coincidence rate of prediction was calculated. RESULTS: In resection group, the expressing intensities of c-myc, Ki-67, MMP-2 and VEGF in cancer tissue in group A were significantly higher than those in group B (t = 2.97, P= 0.01; t = 2.42, P= 0.03<0.05; t = 2.57, P= 0.02<0.05; t = 3.43, P = 0.004<0.01, respectively); the expressing intensities of 11 kinds of detected molecules in para-cancer tissue in groups A and B were not significantly different (P>0.05). The regression equation predicting prognosis of HCC is as follows: P(1) = 1/[1+e-(3.663-0.412mycc-2.187kl-67c-0.397vegfc)]. It demonstrates that prognosis of HCC in resection group was related with c-myc, Ki-67 and VEGF expressing intensity in cancer tissue. In PMCT group, the expressing intensities of c-myc, Ki-67 and VEGF in cancer tissue in group A were significantly higher than those in group B (t = 4.57, P= 0.000<0.01; t = 2.08, P= 0.04<0.05; t = 2.38, P= 0.02<0.05, respectively); the expressing intensities of c-myc, Ki-67 and VEGF in para-cancer tissue in groups A and B were not significantly different (P>0.05). The coincidence rate of patients undergoing PMCT in group A was 88.00% (22/25), in group B 68.75% (11/16), the total coincidence rate was 80.49% (33/41). CONCLUSION: The regression equation is accurate and feasible and could be used for predicting prognosis of HCC, it helps to select treatment method (resection or PMCT) for HCC patients to realize individualized treatment to improve prognosis.

Uncertainty and disturbance estimator-based model predictive control for wet flue gas desulphurization system

Wet flue gas desulphurization technology is widely used in the industrial process for its capability of efficient pollution removal.The desulphurization control system,however,is subjected to complex reaction mechanisms and severe disturbances,which make for it difficult to achieve certain practically relevant control goals including emission and economic performances as well as system robustness.To address these challenges,a new robust control scheme based on uncertainty and disturbance estimator(UDE)and model predictive control(MPC)is proposed in this paper.The UDE is used to estimate and dynamically compensate acting disturbances,whereas MPC is deployed for optimal feedback regulation of the resultant dynamics.By viewing the system nonlinearities and unknown dynamics as disturbances,the proposed control framework allows to locally treat the considered nonlinear plant as a linear one.The obtained simulation results confirm that the utilization of UDE makes the tracking error negligibly small,even in the presence of unmodeled dynamics.In the conducted comparison study,the introduced control scheme outperforms both the standard MPC and PID(proportional-integral-derivative)control strategies in terms of transient performance and robustness.Furthermore,the results reveal that a lowpass-filter time constant has a significant effect on the robustness and the convergence range of the tracking error.

Finite-Time Stabilization for Constrained Discrete-time Systems by Using Model Predictive Control

In this paper, a model predictive control(MPC)framework is proposed for finite-time stabilization of linear and nonlinear discrete-time systems subject to state and control constraints. The proposed MPC framework guarantees the finite-time convergence property by assigning the control horizon equal to the dimension of the overall system, and only penalizing the terminal cost in the optimization, where the stage costs are not penalized explicitly. A terminal inequality constraint is added to guarantee the feasibility and stability of the closed-loop system.Initial feasibility can be improved via augmentation. The finite-time convergence of the proposed MPC is proved theoretically,and is supported by simulation examples.

Multi-Time Scale Optimal Scheduling of a Photovoltaic Energy Storage Building System Based on Model Predictive Control

Building emission reduction is an important way to achieve China’s carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals.Aiming at the problem of low carbon economic operation of a photovoltaic energy storage building system,a multi-time scale optimal scheduling strategy based on model predictive control(MPC)is proposed under the consideration of load optimization.First,load optimization is achieved by controlling the charging time of electric vehicles as well as adjusting the air conditioning operation temperature,and the photovoltaic energy storage building system model is constructed to propose a day-ahead scheduling strategy with the lowest daily operation cost.Second,considering inter-day to intra-day source-load prediction error,an intraday rolling optimal scheduling strategy based on MPC is proposed that dynamically corrects the day-ahead dispatch results to stabilize system power fluctuations and promote photovoltaic consumption.Finally,taking an office building on a summer work day as an example,the effectiveness of the proposed scheduling strategy is verified.The results of the example show that the strategy reduces the total operating cost of the photovoltaic energy storage building system by 17.11%,improves the carbon emission reduction by 7.99%,and the photovoltaic consumption rate reaches 98.57%,improving the system’s low-carbon and economic performance.

Development and validation of a predictive model for acute-onchronic liver failure after transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt

BACKGROUND Transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt(TIPS)is a cause of acute-onchronic liver failure(ACLF).AIM To investigate the risk factors of ACLF within 1 year after TIPS in patients with cirrhosis and construct a prediction model.METHODS In total,379 patients with decompensated cirrhosis treated with TIPS at Nanjing Drum Tower Hospital from 2017 to 2020 were selected as the training cohort,and 123 patients from Nanfang Hospital were included in the external validation cohort.Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to identify independent predictors.The prediction model was established based on the Akaike information criterion.Internal and external validation were conducted to assess the performance of the model.RESULTS Age and total bilirubin(TBil)were independent risk factors for the incidence of ACLF within 1 year after TIPS.We developed a prediction model comprising age,TBil,and serum sodium,which demonstrated good discrimination and calibration in both the training cohort and the external validation cohort.CONCLUSION Age and TBil are independent risk factors for the incidence of ACLF within 1 year after TIPS in patients with decompensated cirrhosis.Our model showed satisfying predictive value.

Tracking Control of Multi-Agent Systems Using a Networked Predictive PID Tracking Scheme

With the rapid development of network technology and control technology,a networked multi-agent control system is a key direction of modern industrial control systems,such as industrial Internet systems.This paper studies the tracking control problem of networked multi-agent systems with communication constraints,where each agent has no information on the dynamics of other agents except their outputs.A networked predictive proportional integral derivative(PPID)tracking scheme is proposed to achieve the desired tracking performance,compensate actively for communication delays,and simplify implementation in a distributed manner.This scheme combines the past,present and predictive information of neighbour agents to form a tracking error signal for each agent,and applies the proportional,integral,and derivative of the agent tracking error signal to control each individual agent.The criteria of the stability and output tracking consensus of multi-agent systems with the networked PPID tracking scheme are derived through detailed analysis on the closed-loop systems.The effectiveness of the networked PPID tracking scheme is illustrated via an example.

Multiobjective economic model predictive control using utopia-tracking for the wet flue gas desulphurization system

Efficient control of the desulphurization system is challenging in maximizing the economic objective while reducing the SO_(2) emission concentration. The conventional optimization method is generally based on a hierarchical structure in which the upper optimization layer calculates the steady-state results and the lower control layer is responsible to drive the process to the target point. However, the conventional hierarchical structure does not take the economic performance of the dynamic tracking process into account. To this end, multi-objective economic model predictive control(MOEMPC) is introduced in this paper, which unifies the optimization and control layers in a single stage. The objective functions are formulated in terms of a dynamic horizon and to balance the stability and economic performance. In the MOEMPC scheme, economic performance and SO_(2) emission performance are guaranteed by tracking a set of utopia points during dynamic transitions. The terminal penalty function and stabilizing constraint conditions are designed to ensure the stability of the system. Finally, an optimized control method for the stable operation of the complex desulfurization system has been established. Simulation results demonstrate that MOEMPC is superior over another control strategy in terms of economic performance and emission reduction, especially when the desulphurization system suffers from frequent flue gas disturbances.

Connectivity-maintaining Consensus of Multi-agent Systems With Communication Management Based on Predictive Control Strategy

This paper studies the connectivity-maintaining consensus of multi-agent systems.Considering the impact of the sensing ranges of agents for connectivity and communication energy consumption,a novel communication management strategy is proposed for multi-agent systems so that the connectivity of the system can be maintained and the communication energy can be saved.In this paper,communication management means a strategy about how the sensing ranges of agents are adjusted in the process of reaching consensus.The proposed communication management in this paper is not coupled with controller but only imposes a constraint for controller,so there is more freedom to develop an appropriate control strategy for achieving consensus.For the multi-agent systems with this novel communication management,a predictive control based strategy is developed for achieving consensus.Simulation results indicate the effectiveness and advantages of our scheme.

Machine Learning Accelerated Real-Time Model Predictive Control for Power Systems

This paper presents a machine-learning-based speedup strategy for real-time implementation of model-predictive-control(MPC)in emergency voltage stabilization of power systems.Despite success in various applications,real-time implementation of MPC in power systems has not been successful due to the online control computation time required for large-sized complex systems,and in power systems,the computation time exceeds the available decision time used in practice by a large extent.This long-standing problem is addressed here by developing a novel MPC-based framework that i)computes an optimal strategy for nominal loads in an offline setting and adapts it for real-time scenarios by successive online control corrections at each control instant utilizing the latest measurements,and ii)employs a machine-learning based approach for the prediction of voltage trajectory and its sensitivity to control inputs,thereby accelerating the overall control computation by multiple times.Additionally,a realistic control coordination scheme among static var compensators(SVC),load-shedding(LS),and load tap-changers(LTC)is presented that incorporates the practical delayed actions of the LTCs.The performance of the proposed scheme is validated for IEEE 9-bus and 39-bus systems,with±20%variations in nominal loading conditions together with contingencies.We show that our proposed methodology speeds up the online computation by 20-fold,bringing it down to a practically feasible value(fraction of a second),making the MPC real-time and feasible for power system control for the first time.

Flexible predictive power-split control for battery-supercapacitor systems of electric vehicles using IVHS

The utilization of traffic information received from intelligent vehicle highway systems(IVHS) to plan velocity and split output power for multi-source vehicles is currently a research hotspot. However, it is an open issue to plan vehicle velocity and distribute output power between different supply units simultaneously due to the strongly coupling characteristic of the velocity planning and the power distribution. To address this issue, a flexible predictive power-split control strategy based on IVHS is proposed for electric vehicles(EVs) equipped with battery-supercapacitor system(BSS). Unlike hierarchical strategies to plan vehicle velocity and distribute output power separately, a monolayer model predictive control(MPC) method is employed to optimize them online at the same time. Firstly, a flexible velocity planning strategy is designed based on the signal phase and time(SPAT) information received from IVHS and then the Pontryagin’s minimum principle(PMP) is adopted to formulate the optimal control problem of the BSS. Then, the flexible velocity planning strategy and the optimal control problem of BSS are embedded into an MPC framework, which is online solved using the shooting method in a fashion of receding horizon. Simulation results verify that the proposed strategy achieves a superior performance compared with the hierarchical strategy in terms of transportation efficiency, battery capacity loss, energy consumption and computation time.

Deep learning for predictive mechanical properties of hot-rolled strip in complex manufacturing systems

Higher requirements for the accuracy of relevant models are put throughout the transformation and upgrade of the iron and steel sector to intelligent production.It has been difficult to meet the needs of the field with the usual prediction model of mechanical properties of hotrolled strip.Insufficient data and difficult parameter adjustment limit deep learning models based on multi-layer networks in practical applications;besides,the limited discrete process parameters used make it impossible to effectively depict the actual strip processing process.In order to solve these problems,this research proposed a new sampling approach for mechanical characteristics input data of hot-rolled strip based on the multi-grained cascade forest(gcForest)framework.According to the characteristics of complex process flow and abnormal sensitivity of process path and parameters to product quality in the hot-rolled strip production,a three-dimensional continuous time series process data sampling method based on time-temperature-deformation was designed.The basic information of strip steel(chemical composition and typical process parameters)is fused with the local process information collected by multi-grained scanning,so that the next link’s input has both local and global features.Furthermore,in the multi-grained scanning structure,a sub sampling scheme with a variable window was designed,so that input data with different dimensions can get output characteristics of the same dimension after passing through the multi-grained scanning structure,allowing the cascade forest structure to be trained normally.Finally,actual production data of three steel grades was used to conduct the experimental evaluation.The results revealed that the gcForest-based mechanical property prediction model outperforms the competition in terms of comprehensive performance,ease of parameter adjustment,and ability to sustain high prediction accuracy with fewer samples.

Predictive modeling for postoperative delirium in elderly patients with abdominal malignancies using synthetic minority oversampling technique

BACKGROUND Postoperative delirium,particularly prevalent in elderly patients after abdominal cancer surgery,presents significant challenges in clinical management.AIM To develop a synthetic minority oversampling technique(SMOTE)-based model for predicting postoperative delirium in elderly abdominal cancer patients.METHODS In this retrospective cohort study,we analyzed data from 611 elderly patients who underwent abdominal malignant tumor surgery at our hospital between September 2020 and October 2022.The incidence of postoperative delirium was recorded for 7 d post-surgery.Patients were divided into delirium and non-delirium groups based on the occurrence of postoperative delirium or not.A multivariate logistic regression model was used to identify risk factors and develop a predictive model for postoperative delirium.The SMOTE technique was applied to enhance the model by oversampling the delirium cases.The model’s predictive accuracy was then validated.RESULTS In our study involving 611 elderly patients with abdominal malignant tumors,multivariate logistic regression analysis identified significant risk factors for postoperative delirium.These included the Charlson comorbidity index,American Society of Anesthesiologists classification,history of cerebrovascular disease,surgical duration,perioperative blood transfusion,and postoperative pain score.The incidence rate of postoperative delirium in our study was 22.91%.The original predictive model(P1)exhibited an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.862.In comparison,the SMOTE-based logistic early warning model(P2),which utilized the SMOTE oversampling algorithm,showed a slightly lower but comparable area under the curve of 0.856,suggesting no significant difference in performance between the two predictive approaches.CONCLUSION This study confirms that the SMOTE-enhanced predictive model for postoperative delirium in elderly abdominal tumor patients shows performance equivalent to that of traditional methods,effectively addressing data imbalance.

An Integrated Control Framework for Torque Vectoring and Active Suspension System

Four-wheel independently driven electric vehicles(FWID-EV)endow a flexible and scalable control framework to improve vehicle performance.This paper integrates the torque vectoring and active suspension system(ASS)to enhance the vehicle’s longitudinal and vertical motion control performance.While the nonlinear characteristic of the tire model leads to a relatively heavier computational burden.To facilitate the controller design and ease the load,a half-vehicle dynamics system is built and simplified to the linear-time-varying(LTV)model.Then a model predictive controller is developed by formulating the objective function by comprehensively considering the safety,energy-saving and comfort requirements.The in-wheel motor efficiency and the power loss of tire slip are treated as optimization indices in this work to reduce energy consumption.Finally,the effectiveness of the proposed controller is verified through the rapid-control-prototype(RCP)test.The results demonstrate the enhancement of the energy-saving as well as comfort on the basis of vehicle stability.

Hybrid Dynamic Variables-Dependent Event-Triggered Fuzzy Model Predictive Control

This article focuses on dynamic event-triggered mechanism(DETM)-based model predictive control(MPC) for T-S fuzzy systems.A hybrid dynamic variables-dependent DETM is carefully devised,which includes a multiplicative dynamic variable and an additive dynamic variable.The addressed DETM-based fuzzy MPC issue is described as a “min-max” optimization problem(OP).To facilitate the co-design of the MPC controller and the weighting matrix of the DETM,an auxiliary OP is proposed based on a new Lyapunov function and a new robust positive invariant(RPI) set that contain the membership functions and the hybrid dynamic variables.A dynamic event-triggered fuzzy MPC algorithm is developed accordingly,whose recursive feasibility is analysed by employing the RPI set.With the designed controller,the involved fuzzy system is ensured to be asymptotically stable.Two examples show that the new DETM and DETM-based MPC algorithm have the advantages of reducing resource consumption while yielding the anticipated performance.

Clinical nursing value of predictive nursing in reducing complications of pregnant women undergoing short-term massive blood transfusion during cesarean section

BACKGROUND Cesarean hemorrhage is one of the serious complications,and short-term massive blood transfusion can easily cause postoperative infection and physical stress response.However,predictive nursing intervention has important clinical significance for it.AIM To explore the effect of predictive nursing intervention on the stress response and complications of women undergoing short-term mass blood transfusion during cesarean section(CS).METHODS A clinical medical record of 100 pregnant women undergoing rapid mass blood transfusion during sections from June 2019 to June 2021.According to the different nursing methods,patients divided into control group(n=50)and observation group(n=50).Among them,the control group implemented routine nursing,and the observation group implemented predictive nursing intervention based on the control group.Moreover,compared the differences in stress res-ponse,complications,and pain scores before and after the nursing of pregnant women undergoing rapid mass blood transfusion during CS.RESULTS The anxiety and depression scores of pregnant women in the two groups were significantly improved after nursing,and the psychological stress response of the observation group was significantly lower than that of the control group(P<0.05).The heart rate and mean arterial pressure(MAP)of the observation group during delivery were lower than those of the control group,and the MAP at the end of delivery was lower than that of the control group(P<0.05).Moreover,different pain scores improved significantly in both groups,with the observation group considerably less than the control group(P<0.05).After nursing,complications such as skin rash,urinary retention,chills,diarrhea,and anaphylactic shock in the observation group were 18%,which significantly higher than in the control group(4%)(P<0.05).CONCLUSION Predictive nursing intervention can effectively relieve the pain,reduce the incidence of complications,improve mood and stress response,and serve as a reference value for the nursing of women undergoing rapid mass transfusion during CS.

Validation and performance of three scoring systems for predicting primary non-function and early allograft failure after liver transplantation

Background: Primary non-function(PNF) and early allograft failure(EAF) after liver transplantation(LT) seriously affect patient outcomes. In clinical practice, effective prognostic tools for early identifying recipients at high risk of PNF and EAF were urgently needed. Recently, the Model for Early Allograft Function(MEAF), PNF score by King's College(King-PNF) and Balance-and-Risk-Lactate(BAR-Lac) score were developed to assess the risks of PNF and EAF. This study aimed to externally validate and compare the prognostic performance of these three scores for predicting PNF and EAF. Methods: A retrospective study included 720 patients with primary LT between January 2015 and December 2020. MEAF, King-PNF and BAR-Lac scores were compared using receiver operating characteristic(ROC) and the net reclassification improvement(NRI) and integrated discrimination improvement(IDI) analyses. Results: Of all 720 patients, 28(3.9%) developed PNF and 67(9.3%) developed EAF in 3 months. The overall early allograft dysfunction(EAD) rate was 39.0%. The 3-month patient mortality was 8.6% while 1-year graft-failure-free survival was 89.2%. The median MEAF, King-PNF and BAR-Lac scores were 5.0(3.5–6.3),-2.1(-2.6 to-1.2), and 5.0(2.0–11.0), respectively. For predicting PNF, MEAF and King-PNF scores had excellent area under curves(AUCs) of 0.872 and 0.891, superior to BAR-Lac(AUC = 0.830). The NRI and IDI analyses confirmed that King-PNF score had the best performance in predicting PNF while MEAF served as a better predictor of EAD. The EAF risk curve and 1-year graft-failure-free survival curve showed that King-PNF was superior to MEAF and BAR-Lac scores for stratifying the risk of EAF. Conclusions: MEAF, King-PNF and BAR-Lac were validated as practical and effective risk assessment tools of PNF. King-PNF score outperformed MEAF and BAR-Lac in predicting PNF and EAF within 6 months. BAR-Lac score had a huge advantage in the prediction for PNF without post-transplant variables. Proper use of these scores will help early identify PNF, standardize grading of EAF and reasonably select clinical endpoints in relative studies.

Finite-time economic model predictive control for optimal load dispatch and frequency regulation in interconnected power systems

This paper presents a finite-time economic model predictive control(MPC)algorithm that can be used for frequency regulation and optimal load dispatch in multi-area power systems.Economic MPC can be used in a power system to ensure frequency stability,real-time economic optimization,control of the system and optimal load dispatch from it.A generalized terminal penalty term was used,and the finite-time convergence of the system was guaranteed.The effectiveness of the proposed model predictive control algorithm was verified by simulating a power system,which had two areas connected by an AC tie line.The simulation results demonstrated the effectiveness of the algorithm.

Research on Mixed Logic Dynamic Modeling and Finite Control Set Model Predictive Control of Multi-Inverter Parallel System

Parallel connection of multiple inverters is an important means to solve the expansion,reserve and protection of distributed power generation,such as photovoltaics.In view of the shortcomings of traditional droop control methods such as weak anti-interference ability,low tracking accuracy of inverter output voltage and serious circulation phenomenon,a finite control set model predictive control(FCS-MPC)strategy of microgrid multiinverter parallel system based on Mixed Logical Dynamical(MLD)modeling is proposed.Firstly,the MLD modeling method is introduced logical variables,combining discrete events and continuous events to form an overall differential equation,which makes the modeling more accurate.Then a predictive controller is designed based on the model,and constraints are added to the objective function,which can not only solve the real-time changes of the control system by online optimization,but also effectively obtain a higher tracking accuracy of the inverter output voltage and lower total harmonic distortion rate(Total Harmonics Distortion,THD);and suppress the circulating current between the inverters,to obtain a good dynamic response.Finally,the simulation is carried out onMATLAB/Simulink to verify the correctness of the model and the rationality of the proposed strategy.This paper aims to provide guidance for the design and optimal control of multi-inverter parallel systems.

Intelligent Smart Grid Stability Predictive Model for Cyber-Physical Energy Systems

A cyber physical energy system(CPES)involves a combination of pro-cessing,network,and physical processes.The smart grid plays a vital role in the CPES model where information technology(IT)can be related to the physical system.At the same time,the machine learning(ML)modelsfind useful for the smart grids integrated into the CPES for effective decision making.Also,the smart grids using ML and deep learning(DL)models are anticipated to lessen the requirement of placing many power plants for electricity utilization.In this aspect,this study designs optimal multi-head attention based bidirectional long short term memory(OMHA-MBLSTM)technique for smart grid stability predic-tion in CPES.The proposed OMHA-MBLSTM technique involves three subpro-cesses such as pre-processing,prediction,and hyperparameter optimization.The OMHA-MBLSTM technique employs min-max normalization as a pre-proces-sing step.Besides,the MBLSTM model is applied for the prediction of stability level of the smart grids in CPES.At the same time,the moth swarm algorithm(MHA)is utilized for optimally modifying the hyperparameters involved in the MBLSTM model.To ensure the enhanced outcomes of the OMHA-MBLSTM technique,a series of simulations were carried out and the results are inspected under several aspects.The experimental results pointed out the better outcomes of the OMHA-MBLSTM technique over the recent models.

Multiple Regression and Big Data Analysis for Predictive Emission Monitoring Systems

Predictive Emission Monitoring Systems (PEMS) offer a cost-effective and environmentally friendly alternative to Continuous Emission Monitoring Systems (CEMS) for monitoring pollution from industrial sources. Multiple regression is one of the fundamental statistical techniques to describe the relationship between dependent and independent variables. This model can be effectively used to develop a PEMS, to estimate the amount of pollution emitted by industrial sources, where the fuel composition and other process-related parameters are available. It often makes them sufficient to predict the emission discharge with acceptable accuracy. In cases where PEMS are accepted as an alternative method to CEMS, which use gas analyzers, they can provide cost savings and substantial benefits for ongoing system support and maintenance. The described mathematical concept is based on the matrix algebra representation in multiple regression involving multiple precision arithmetic techniques. Challenging numerical examples for statistical big data analysis, are investigated. Numerical examples illustrate computational accuracy and efficiency of statistical analysis due to increasing the precision level. The programming language C++ is used for mathematical model implementation. The data for research and development, including the dependent fuel and independent NOx emissions data, were obtained from CEMS software installed on a petrochemical plant.