Asymmetric Price Transmission Analysis of the International Soybean Market

This study analyzed the asymmetric price transmission in the international soybean market, using data from the US (Chicago Futures), European (Rotterdam), Brazilian (Paranaguá), Argentinian (Rosario Futures and Rosario Spot), and Chinese (Spot and Futures) markets. The study looked at the price transmission between these markets over a period of almost 10 years, from September 2009 to May 2019. The Phillips-Perron unit root test was used to determine the order of integration of the time series. The Engle-Granger cointegration test failed to find any evidence of cointegration between the Chinese and Argentinian markets with any others of the international markets. The lack of cointegration was associated with highly government intervened markets. The cointegration and threshold test proposed by Enders and Siklos, succeeded in rejecting the Null hypothesis and finding cointegration among the series after structural breaks had been taken into account. The BDS test for nonlinearity showed that most of the time series were nonlinear, which prompted the investigation to look into nonlinear modelling. To evaluate asymmetric price transmission, the study used the Threshold autoregressive (TAR) model and the momentum threshold model (MTAR). The Argentine and Chinese markets were primarily suspected of exhibiting asymmetric price transmission due to structural government intervention. However, the test results failed to reject the null hypothesis and revealed asymmetric price transmission between these markets and the international market. As expected, the results found no evidence of asymmetric price transmission in the Paranaguá, Rotterdam, and Chicago markets. Hence, it can be concluded that symmetric price transmission is more prevalent in the global soybean market than asymmetric price transmission.

Price Transmission in China's Swine Industry with an Application of MCM

The paper studies the relationship, adjustment ability, path, efficiency and intensity of price transmission in the swine industry chain in China, which consists of the prices of corn, compound feed for fattening pig, piglet, pig and pork. Monthly prices covering a period of 18 yr （1994-2011） are analyzed using a Market-Chain Cooperated Model （MCM）. The empirical results show that there exists a stable long-term cointegration and short-term dynamic relationship in the price system. First, the adjustment speed of each price series is very slow and the transmission path is top-down and one-way significantly. Second, the price from upstream to downstream lags about 2 mort, while there is no lag in price transmission from midstream to downstream. Third, in terms of price transmission intensity, the price of pig impacted greatly on pork price, not only in the current period but also through the whole period. Besides, the price of corn has the largest lagged effects on pork price. According to the above empirical results, we suggest that government should strengthen monitoring and early warning of the swine industry chain, especially the upstream and midstream, attach great importance to the timely adjustment of feed prices and perfect the measures of price subsidy.

Vertical Price Transmission in the China's Layer Industry Chain:an Application of FDL Approach

This paper examines the vertical price relationship between upstream and downstream products in China＇s layer industry chain by estimating elasticity coefficients of the price transmission. We use cointegration tests, error correction models and finite distributed lag models to analyze vertical price shifts between corn, layer feed, egg-laying chicken and egg prices. With monthly data from 1994 to 2010, our results show that various prices in China＇s layer industry chain are well integrated. In addition, our results indicate that both long-run and short-run price relationships between upstream and downstream products in layer industry chain exist and the long-run equilibrium, to a certain extent, may eliminate the short-run dynamics price deviation. We also found that the influence of corn and feed prices on egg prices is still more remarkable than egg-laying chicken prices. Our findings imply that governments should pay more attention to corn and layer feed prices in order to stabilize egg prices under the conditions of market integration.

Flow tracing based on current

Analyses the flow tracing based on power flow, points out that the detachment of reactive power and active power is unrealiable and concludes that the current is the real basic of flow tracing,and proposes the new flow tracing model based on current, which devides the current into active current and reactive current, analyses the theory about the matrix to deal with the precision and realization of the flow tracing, and then proposes a new pricing model by fixed rate and marginal rate, which keeps not only economy information such as congestion cost in marginal cost based pricing, but also benefits to make both ends meet.